Where to Now, for the Industry?
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Where to Now, for the Industry?
Thought I would start this thread to get people's views on where they think the industry is at the monement and where it is going?
So many variables have to be taken into account, the demise of Ansett, the war, new economics in the way airlines are run (ie VirginBlue, Australian) - keeping costs down. Is the industry rebounding, redefining itself or just remaining constant as a very difficult industry to survive in and or break into.
What are your views on the industry, will it get better, worse or stay the same?
So many variables have to be taken into account, the demise of Ansett, the war, new economics in the way airlines are run (ie VirginBlue, Australian) - keeping costs down. Is the industry rebounding, redefining itself or just remaining constant as a very difficult industry to survive in and or break into.
What are your views on the industry, will it get better, worse or stay the same?
Java I reakon you have asked a very valid question and god knows what the answer to it is. However the way I things is it isn't get any better unless something happens in a big way in a hurry.
A few years ago we have Kendell and Impulse getting jets, QF recruiting, and AN was starting to interview....now we have Virgin taking a trickle, and QF seeming to be close to closing up the pilot shop for a little while. With Impulse full and with guys on the waiting list for jobs back there, most of the regionals fully stocked with no real sign of 'huge' developement, it means that in the near future at least the industry looks pretty stagnent.
Where does that leave the rest of the industry, it leaves a few thousand guys in some average parts of the country flying aircraft with thousands of hours on them, some of them older than the pilots flying them in jobs that pay poorly with no real change of bettering themself in the immediate future because of the lack of movement at the top.
What is the future really, will our kids be flying the same 1970 model 210 in 20 years time, which will then be 50 odd years old and probably with 30,000 hours on them....if that isn't the future how will the industry afford to buy new aircraft, many of which aren't even manufactured anymore.
By the way things are going everyone is pricing themself out of aviation, fuel is going up, parts are going up, charges(airport/Airservices) continue to increase, yet there is so much competition and it's already so expensive that only the very well off or extremely time critical operations continue to use aircraft.
Myself i've worked 5 years in retail and have got a CPL, MECIR and about 300 hours and i've resigned myself to staying where I am for quite a while at the moment, call me a wous, weak or not dedicated enough but I don't wish to live in an aboriginal community flying a clapped out piece of junk living on the breadline being pushed by a guy to fly the a/c U/S, or in IMC when it's only VFR because even after doing that for 6-12 months and getting 1000 hours up, where do you go then, when I know half a dozen people with well over 2000 hours that can't find decent work...I work somewhere in an unskilled job that pays about 31K a year, I get a roster a week in advance, work mon-fri, get shares in the company, get paid for training, get paid for all the work I do, and the pay is in the bank every fortnight, I am doing WAY better than nearly all of my friends that have been in the industry onwards of 5 years, I LOVE to fly aircraft, but i'm not willing to give up conditions that anyone that works for a living should get, i'd have no problems working and living in a community if you were paid a fair and proper wage and treated well, and got to fly decent equipment sadly those things especially in GA in this country don't seem to exist.
I know half a dozen people myself that are thinking of tossing the towel in completely, and know of probably another dozen that have, most of them have had upwards of 5-10 years in the industry and are just sick of it, the love of flying planes is great, but lets face it we all work to live, if you can't make a decent wage and living out of flying, no matter how much you love it, love doesn't pay the bills and you have to face facts and get a job that does pay the bills, even if it doesn't involve aircraft...
A few years ago we have Kendell and Impulse getting jets, QF recruiting, and AN was starting to interview....now we have Virgin taking a trickle, and QF seeming to be close to closing up the pilot shop for a little while. With Impulse full and with guys on the waiting list for jobs back there, most of the regionals fully stocked with no real sign of 'huge' developement, it means that in the near future at least the industry looks pretty stagnent.
Where does that leave the rest of the industry, it leaves a few thousand guys in some average parts of the country flying aircraft with thousands of hours on them, some of them older than the pilots flying them in jobs that pay poorly with no real change of bettering themself in the immediate future because of the lack of movement at the top.
What is the future really, will our kids be flying the same 1970 model 210 in 20 years time, which will then be 50 odd years old and probably with 30,000 hours on them....if that isn't the future how will the industry afford to buy new aircraft, many of which aren't even manufactured anymore.
By the way things are going everyone is pricing themself out of aviation, fuel is going up, parts are going up, charges(airport/Airservices) continue to increase, yet there is so much competition and it's already so expensive that only the very well off or extremely time critical operations continue to use aircraft.
Myself i've worked 5 years in retail and have got a CPL, MECIR and about 300 hours and i've resigned myself to staying where I am for quite a while at the moment, call me a wous, weak or not dedicated enough but I don't wish to live in an aboriginal community flying a clapped out piece of junk living on the breadline being pushed by a guy to fly the a/c U/S, or in IMC when it's only VFR because even after doing that for 6-12 months and getting 1000 hours up, where do you go then, when I know half a dozen people with well over 2000 hours that can't find decent work...I work somewhere in an unskilled job that pays about 31K a year, I get a roster a week in advance, work mon-fri, get shares in the company, get paid for training, get paid for all the work I do, and the pay is in the bank every fortnight, I am doing WAY better than nearly all of my friends that have been in the industry onwards of 5 years, I LOVE to fly aircraft, but i'm not willing to give up conditions that anyone that works for a living should get, i'd have no problems working and living in a community if you were paid a fair and proper wage and treated well, and got to fly decent equipment sadly those things especially in GA in this country don't seem to exist.
I know half a dozen people myself that are thinking of tossing the towel in completely, and know of probably another dozen that have, most of them have had upwards of 5-10 years in the industry and are just sick of it, the love of flying planes is great, but lets face it we all work to live, if you can't make a decent wage and living out of flying, no matter how much you love it, love doesn't pay the bills and you have to face facts and get a job that does pay the bills, even if it doesn't involve aircraft...
Cheers Q
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I spent 10 years + at AN and when they went under I tried to get work at over 120 diffent airlines. I joined AN too close to the dispute for Emirates, told to come back in 12 months by QF, dont have mates in the right places at Virgin Blue and simply didnt hear back from most of the rest. I got a job in GA for a while with a company that seemed good ( as is anywhere when you are desparate!!), but I resigned after 4 weeks as I could not stomache what I percieved to be the chief pilots ill-mannered behaviour towards his staff. In GA I saw aircraft that were old heaps of 5hit 15 years earlier still flying around. Some other things had not changed; that you needed rich parents or enormous dedication and few other financial commitments to stay in flying. Same old reasons: low rates of pay and very little job security. Even full-time GA jobs only pay $12 per hour, after the company has made you do all the 'other duties' around the hangar. You'd make more money cleaning dunnies at Hoyts! The only really worthwhile jobs in aviation are the ones that will offer you a career path, security of tenure and a reasonable salary. If they dont meet these cirteria, then they are a stepping stone. You owe this much to your family. Qantas and VB fit the bill here, as do some other lesser known companies. However, some things are changing; there is a greater requirement to pay for your own endorsements and training. (ie: less nett income) The option of a career as a contract pilot is becoming more attactive and rewards in this area are much higher than the majors pay, but dont offer much with regard to job security. And you need significant experience on type(generally). But if you are going to spend a whole lot of money on self-education, why not consider other industries. Did you know that a 4 year Paramedic makes about $70K? The chances of "making it" in flying are becoming more difficult and with the current war and inevitable down turn in pax traffic things wont get any easier. The price of fuel is likely to rise exacerbating the issue. In about 40 years, oil will simply be too expensive to mine. Changes will need to come about shortly to introduce next generation methods of propulsion. This is assuming that there is a viable airline industry after the forthcoming economic collapse. Perhaps it will all go back to the future with re-nationalisation/re-regulation of national carriers. And if you think I'm full of 5hit on this, it's exactly what the Yanks are looking at for UA and others in/approaching Chapter 11. Personally, I would never advise my kids to take up aviation as a career.
Last edited by Sly'n Smiley; 31st Mar 2003 at 04:05.
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Yes, certainly sad tough days for aviation and the world in general. The way I see it, either of two things are likely to happen over the next year or two - or most likely something in between. I'll start with worst case scenario and finish on a positive note.
Negative - Although now looking more unlikely each day, the Iraq war may lead to an expanding war that may engulf the whole of The Middle East. If North Korea continues with the stand off with The United States of Aggression, there is a real chance of nuclear war, particularly with India/Pakistan both posessing about 25 nukes each and having been on the verge of war for years with tensions reaching scary levels late last year. If, indeed, the world is on the verge of yet another world war, as many believe, then I fear the aviation dream for most now working in GA is over. Years from now, the 50's to the 90's will be remembered as The Golden Age of aviation, most likely never to return.
Positive - However, if the issue with the Weapons of Mass Distraction is sorted out and North Korea chills out, we could be looking at 2-3 years of huge growth as I believe many Airlines are holding off on expansion plans as are the general public with their travel plans. Great upheaval in any industry also creates opportunities for the lucky, whether in a business sense or you are just a knob who wants to fly aircraft and also make enough income from it to have a normal human life.
I pray to God the world realises for it's own sake that it is at crossroads.
Unfortunately, the record of the human specias on this planet does not fill me with huge faith that we have leaned one thing from the 70 million murdered in the wars of last century.
Peace
Boney
Negative - Although now looking more unlikely each day, the Iraq war may lead to an expanding war that may engulf the whole of The Middle East. If North Korea continues with the stand off with The United States of Aggression, there is a real chance of nuclear war, particularly with India/Pakistan both posessing about 25 nukes each and having been on the verge of war for years with tensions reaching scary levels late last year. If, indeed, the world is on the verge of yet another world war, as many believe, then I fear the aviation dream for most now working in GA is over. Years from now, the 50's to the 90's will be remembered as The Golden Age of aviation, most likely never to return.
Positive - However, if the issue with the Weapons of Mass Distraction is sorted out and North Korea chills out, we could be looking at 2-3 years of huge growth as I believe many Airlines are holding off on expansion plans as are the general public with their travel plans. Great upheaval in any industry also creates opportunities for the lucky, whether in a business sense or you are just a knob who wants to fly aircraft and also make enough income from it to have a normal human life.
I pray to God the world realises for it's own sake that it is at crossroads.
Unfortunately, the record of the human specias on this planet does not fill me with huge faith that we have leaned one thing from the 70 million murdered in the wars of last century.
Peace
Boney
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Sly n Smiley- I went through the same experience and have formed exactly the same opinions although I have been fortunate enough to now have an airline job again. My application folder was as thick the second time around as it was 14 years ago! If my kids want to go into aviation for a career I will strongly suggest they get a qualification that is recognised outside of aviation. I would only recommend aviation as a career to those who are really passionate about flying.
I did note that in my second stint as an instructor there were few school age kids learning to fly whereas 14 years ago there were more. If the predictions for 20,000 pilots in the Pacific Basin by 2020 are true then flying jobs will be easier to get but in the mean time I think there will be a lot of people leaving the industry.
I did note that in my second stint as an instructor there were few school age kids learning to fly whereas 14 years ago there were more. If the predictions for 20,000 pilots in the Pacific Basin by 2020 are true then flying jobs will be easier to get but in the mean time I think there will be a lot of people leaving the industry.
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The Australian Aviation Industry has been definitely turned upside down and shaken by its ankles in the last 3 years. There seems to be some very pessimistic pilots out there. Many ask the question "What has caused this unrest in the industry?" I have heard all the reasons, starting from the pilot dispute in 1989 to the introduction of GST.......
The simple fact of the matter is if we want the industry to move forward then we have to do it........ because no one else will. Forget about turning to the government for help, they don't care..... Forget about AOPA, Dick Smith, Boyd Munroe, Bill Hamilton, Mick Toller they won't be here in 10 years time....... They don't even own an aviation business.
It is up to pilots, engineers, businessmen to turn the industry around. I look at people like Gippsland Aeronautics who developed the aircraft like the Airvan, they are moving forwarded.........
If you are the sort of pilot that wants to fly 300 hours a year get paid $300,000 and have 15 out of 30 days on reserve, I'm sorry those days are gone. But on the same hand we can't have people working like slave labour, you must get a fair days pay for a fair days work. Aviation employers need to grow up too. The rest of the Australian business community has to pay superannuation, work cover and also have to train their staff, time our aviation business community did too......
The simple fact of the matter is if we want the industry to move forward then we have to do it........ because no one else will. Forget about turning to the government for help, they don't care..... Forget about AOPA, Dick Smith, Boyd Munroe, Bill Hamilton, Mick Toller they won't be here in 10 years time....... They don't even own an aviation business.
It is up to pilots, engineers, businessmen to turn the industry around. I look at people like Gippsland Aeronautics who developed the aircraft like the Airvan, they are moving forwarded.........
If you are the sort of pilot that wants to fly 300 hours a year get paid $300,000 and have 15 out of 30 days on reserve, I'm sorry those days are gone. But on the same hand we can't have people working like slave labour, you must get a fair days pay for a fair days work. Aviation employers need to grow up too. The rest of the Australian business community has to pay superannuation, work cover and also have to train their staff, time our aviation business community did too......
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It is a fact that GA is going to continue the current slide into a very small market niche. Look at what GA was used for in the hey-days of the 70s to 90s - mining, commerce, tourism. Now it is so much less cost and less actual or potential drama, to simply stick the rig crew or CEO or whomever on a VB or QF at prices that were unheard of back then - $120 rtn BN-SY - than to charter a 20-30 yr old noisy piston aeroplane that takes longer and costs more.
Regional airlines are subsidised to fly to what used to be the bread & butter of GA - the regional towns of 3000 - 10,000 people. Try and find a flourishing GA CHTR or LCRPT in any of those centres now!
Driving is no longer the pain in the butt that it was - quality sealed roads all around and across the country make it a viable alternative to CHTR.
Tourism is high-end, no more boggging around in hot, smelly Cessnas et al - the market is focussed on the turbine helos and some inter-island resort commuters.
There will always be mine FIFO contracts and Aeromedical, but those markets are pretty soundly stitched up, and those consumers are generally in the top end of the market.
So apart from training and the remaining outposts where our tax dollars subsidise a mostly indiginous clientele - there ain't really much left.
Regional airlines are subsidised to fly to what used to be the bread & butter of GA - the regional towns of 3000 - 10,000 people. Try and find a flourishing GA CHTR or LCRPT in any of those centres now!
Driving is no longer the pain in the butt that it was - quality sealed roads all around and across the country make it a viable alternative to CHTR.
Tourism is high-end, no more boggging around in hot, smelly Cessnas et al - the market is focussed on the turbine helos and some inter-island resort commuters.
There will always be mine FIFO contracts and Aeromedical, but those markets are pretty soundly stitched up, and those consumers are generally in the top end of the market.
So apart from training and the remaining outposts where our tax dollars subsidise a mostly indiginous clientele - there ain't really much left.
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Down here at the little end of GA, doing training and private hire, the PPL training market has remained about the same, but the hire market is definately down, especially those who come from overseas for a self-fly holiday.
It's always been competitive, but margins are getting smaller all the time, the gap in operating costs between those who are doing things by the book and those who are cheating on the GST, cheating their staff out of pay, super and compo is getting wider all the time. I guess a lot of them would never survive if they didn't cheat, and of course the tax office doesn't have the resources to do much about it.
Not helped by some organisations starting price wars and operating below cost to grab what's left of the private hire market.
As for buying new aircraft, do the sums of how many hours they would have to do to meet the finance payments, it's impossible, unless everyone tripled their rates! I know from experience that on the whole people aren't prepared to pay more for a new aircraft than an older equivalent one. Of course about 1/3 of the cost of a new aircraft is the manufacturers liability insurance against some twit flying into the side of a hill and suing them later on. Nothing any of us can do about that.
So what does the future hold? I reckon in ten years time I'll still be operating the same aircraft, the oldest 1967, the youngest 1979, with the exeption of one 1998 model which is no better than the older ones apart from the radio stack. I can see a few operators getting into dire straits unlessthey have another source of income. It's sad. Why? GST, Location Specific Charging, privatisation of airports, big fuel price hikes...? and lots of media attention on every mishap, crumpled aeroplanes on the news don't help us at all.
Aus is still one of the cheapest places to learn to fly and hire an aeroplane, perhaps only the USA and RSA can beat us on that; but none of us can survive unless the below cost people disappear and we can set more realistic prices. Many punters think that $110 an hour for a C172/PA28 is the going rate and anyone who charges more is "greedy"
It's a depressing time, but by no means the end of the road yet!
It's always been competitive, but margins are getting smaller all the time, the gap in operating costs between those who are doing things by the book and those who are cheating on the GST, cheating their staff out of pay, super and compo is getting wider all the time. I guess a lot of them would never survive if they didn't cheat, and of course the tax office doesn't have the resources to do much about it.
Not helped by some organisations starting price wars and operating below cost to grab what's left of the private hire market.
As for buying new aircraft, do the sums of how many hours they would have to do to meet the finance payments, it's impossible, unless everyone tripled their rates! I know from experience that on the whole people aren't prepared to pay more for a new aircraft than an older equivalent one. Of course about 1/3 of the cost of a new aircraft is the manufacturers liability insurance against some twit flying into the side of a hill and suing them later on. Nothing any of us can do about that.
So what does the future hold? I reckon in ten years time I'll still be operating the same aircraft, the oldest 1967, the youngest 1979, with the exeption of one 1998 model which is no better than the older ones apart from the radio stack. I can see a few operators getting into dire straits unlessthey have another source of income. It's sad. Why? GST, Location Specific Charging, privatisation of airports, big fuel price hikes...? and lots of media attention on every mishap, crumpled aeroplanes on the news don't help us at all.
Aus is still one of the cheapest places to learn to fly and hire an aeroplane, perhaps only the USA and RSA can beat us on that; but none of us can survive unless the below cost people disappear and we can set more realistic prices. Many punters think that $110 an hour for a C172/PA28 is the going rate and anyone who charges more is "greedy"
It's a depressing time, but by no means the end of the road yet!
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Sounds like good advice to yourself iwillflyajet. Your mate in the B737NG is probably a contemporary of mine. I learned to fly in the late '70s. Things were pretty grim then too. There will always be various stressors acting on the aviation/airline industry such as wars, recession , fuel prices legislative changes ect. ect. The company that I am currently contracted to has guys from all over the world; plenty of other exAN(pre and post '89!), eastern europeans , south americans.. All these guys are switched on, smart, experienced people who would all rather be back 'home'(where ever that may be), but have wound up overseas because of some employment catastrophe at a previous company. The industry exists in a constant state of flux. Whilst there are dark times ahead, there are also the good. Hopefully, your skies will be fair and sunny. I have walked that hard road of GA. I hit the jackpot at AN and spent the next 10 years learning and learning and learning. I was back on the street in Sept 2001 but I had another non flying job within 2 days. Got a job working for a man who was a total pric k and a bully, then a short-term contract back on a jet. Now on a long term contract and living overseas. This has required HUGE comprimises from family and some considerable financial input. All this to compete for work against people as equally determined as I to stay in the industry. From here I may have to go to europe and pay (pay??..yet again?!!) for a JAA licence. Unless I get lucky with a resonable company back in OZ(see above). This is what you people are up against if you want a career in aviation. There are no guarantees of any return on the money or effort expended. This why it is best to get in with a good company that is stable, offers a career path and that renumerates fairly. Only those who are absolutely resolute have any chance of surviving in this industry until retirement. You will have to be prepared to be ruthless on yourself. I only offer all this to tell you how it can be in aviation. If you can't develop what it takes to be a survivor, then you simply wont hack it in the long-term.
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Spot on, Sly. Things were pretty easy at AN compared with GA. But isn't this what having a career is all about? Why would a company want its Pilots to be continually be in fear of being ripped off, face summary dismissal, hassled to break rules, ect. as is the case in GA? I know that the Human Factors experts have somthing to say about this sort of stuff! My 2 bobs worth: the era of the discount airline will shortly come of age. More and more crews and ground staff on contracts and expected to "self improve" (ie: pay for their own training and type ratings). More and more pressure put on salaries as crews at larger carries shed experienced "A" scale types or furlough pilots (as currently in the USA). Staff comprised of those on contract, casuals and part-time in efforts to cut costs. GA becomes more specialised with companies concentrating on specific types of operation: SAR, mining FIFO , coastwatch etc. New Pilots expected to 'pay' for their apprentiship by buying jobs with large GA operators (I understand that some companies do this already. Like MBA and that crowd in Qld.)...Perhaps a bit bleak. Prepare to be more flexable.
