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Plane missing en route YCAB?

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Old 4th Oct 2012, 07:09
  #121 (permalink)  
 
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From the ABC:
Specialist investigators
The Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA) and police will lead the investigation into the plane crash.
Disaster victim identification officers and CASA and Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) investigators investigators are expected at the site today.
Authorities prepare to recover bodies from crash - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
CASA investigate?
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Old 4th Oct 2012, 07:18
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That's a very poorly crafted piece from the ABC,so I wouldn't bet my life on its accuracy
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Old 4th Oct 2012, 08:44
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Flying - Spike # 118

It is always sad and usually speculative to discuss accidents.
In my opinion and I stress, opinion, Flying - Spike is closest to the truth. These days, information is available by the ton, but what you need is virtually inaccessable.
FS, FSO's and people (with knowledge) dispersed throughout the country were able to succinctley condense what you needed to know to make an informed decision. These days, if you telephone briefing you will wait endlessly for an operator to respond, you will be read what you ask for and only what you ask for and on the end of a phone in the bush you probably won't even understand your options unless very experienced. If you cart your computer around you almost invariably won't get reception at a bush airstrip and if you do you will be confronted with 99 pages of text in heiroglyphics a master of science could not understand.
Bureacracy cover their arse with no thought of useability.
Most pilots are very responsible. They do the best they can.
Unfortunately an emergency must exist before the rescources of the system are available to you. Often then - too late.
I understand cost pressures on Government departments but at the end of the day in Australia there are no longer any public servants - just bureacracies with CUSTOMERS or CLIENTS who must take or leave the options available. There simply is no "SERVICE" from any government instrumentality. The people who work for them are totaly hamstrung by internal rules and regulations. Every private flight flown, is made on the basis of the best you can do under the circumstances.The government view is fly at your own peril - our rules are rewritten by the hour, by our legal experts who can craft any situation into an edict which the paticipant should have forseen.
God help this country if we stay on the path we are being taken.
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Old 4th Oct 2012, 09:36
  #124 (permalink)  
 
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These days, if you telephone briefing you will wait endlessly for an operator to respond, you will be read what you ask for and only what you ask for and on the end of a phone in the bush you probably won't even understand your options unless very experienced.
If you look on the bottom of an area forecast or in the ERSA, you will find a phone number which will give you a direct connection to an Aviation Meteorologist, who will answer the 'phone any time of the day or night and be more than happy to provide a 'technical elaboration' and discuss the vagaries of any forecast. They won't of course tell you to go or not go.
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Old 4th Oct 2012, 10:01
  #125 (permalink)  
 
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Having heard all the radio calls as it happened and Des' description as he was going, some of the speculation so far on here is so far off the mark, it reads more like the media.
Well, morno, if you know it all, why don't you enlighten us?

In any case - RIP.
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Old 4th Oct 2012, 10:13
  #126 (permalink)  
 
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There are other 'specialist' forums suggesting that if it was a nosewheel aircraft it would have landed safely, where do people get this sh*t from ?
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Old 4th Oct 2012, 10:14
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I totally agree with Jabawocky.

If not now, when is the right time to discuss these issues?

None of us know exactly what happened and whether there where other mitigating circumstances that contributed to this accident, however, commonsense tells us that the weather was one of the most significant factors.

I feel sad that Des and his passengers have died, but I also feel like it is THE PERFECT time to discuss flying in IMC without an instrument rating. And transiting from VFR to IMC.

It is not disrespectful to have this sort of discussion. This is being responsible.
These issues need to be discussed, because, aviators by accident or deliberately find themselves in these situations.

Many commercial and private pilots fly in IMC on a regular basis when they should only be VFR and the more they do it, they think they can get away with it. (I am no saying Des was like this, as I have no idea). But I do know many pilots like this.

The fact is: the weather around the Sunshine Coast hinterland was NOT suitable for VFR flight that day.

If you are VFR and the forecast indicates it is clearly not suitable, it is pretty simple to me - don't depart. It is not always that straight forward of course. But that day, how anyone thought they were going to get over the ranges VFR was not living in reality.
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Old 4th Oct 2012, 10:23
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If you are VFR and the forecast indicates it is clearly not suitable, it is pretty simple to me - don't depart. It is not always that straight forward of course.
Weather forcasting/reporting in Australia is so bad that you would not fly much if you followed that rule!

Interestingly, in Alaska, FAA have set up webcams in numerous key locations - you can go online and take a look at the weather in realtime!

Dr

Last edited by ForkTailedDrKiller; 4th Oct 2012 at 10:27.
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Old 4th Oct 2012, 10:48
  #129 (permalink)  
 
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Thanks for agreeing with me

But we are going to disagree on a few points.

First of all, there was VFR all around the place, I mostly fly IFR, but that day, and at that exact time, while morn was in the hold at MLY I was about 20 miles east travelling back from up near Gladstone with a few friends, most with way more experience than me, and one with plenty of PNG time.

As we approached those ranges about an hour earlier within 10 miles of the crash site we had a choice to make, go west and through the gap at Woodford/kilcoy, or go east to Gympie, have a pie/sausage roll, coke/coffee, get some fuel, even though not needed, and rethink our attack.

The Airline Captain/PNG guy out front who was closer to the action made the right call, we all went to Gympie. I think we could have gone west and around the long way, we could have gone anywhere west.....I could see the hills around Nanango, it was that good.

The west and north-west is where Des came from. The weather was fine for VFR flight.

The cruddy stuff was on the coast, but, it claggs in on the ranges and VMC conditions existed all the way southbound down the VFR lane. Sure we left Gympie at about 1500AGL and at times were down to 500AGL, mainly due to those whispy drizzly bits, but from the VFR lane we could see YBSU, YCDR and apart from some yukky stuff right near YCAB, the viz was OK and as forecast.

Out to our right wing = UGLY REALLY UGLY, the whole ranges were socked in, from one end to the other.

If I went IFR that day it woud have been a classic hot steamy bumpy ride over those hills. not pleasant but flyable in the right machine etc. I dread the thought of doing it in a DH Dragon.

Des was not a risky cowboy. Having some knowledge of what transpired, I can only assume he got sucked in to seeing a gap and then running up the range, getting trapped and caught out.

It may seem harsh to say, about a mate, but I think he got sucked in, and stuffed up.

Plenty of others have and will, none of us expected someone like him to be in that situation. It makes some of us wonder .....if he can, what about me!

be vigilant folks..... It is easy to fool people, and the easiest to fool is ourself!
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Old 4th Oct 2012, 11:43
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The cruddy stuff was on the coast, but, it claggs in on the ranges and VMC conditions existed all the way southbound down the VFR lane. Sure we left Gympie at about 1500AGL and at times were down to 500AGL, mainly due to those whispy drizzly bits, but from the VFR lane we could see YBSU, YCDR and apart from some yukky stuff right near YCAB, the viz was OK and as forecast.
Welcome to Victorian weather!

How much of that type of weather do you get up there like that, it is rarely, some days or often? Just interested really.
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Old 4th Oct 2012, 11:53
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Not that much, well not since the 3 years of wet season have eased off.

We do normally enjoy better on average, than you Victorians, who are much braver, tougher and all that
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Old 4th Oct 2012, 12:04
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Well, morno, if you know it all, why don't you enlighten us?
Because I don't think a public forum that is trawled by media is the correct place to be discussing my recall of the radio calls during the event.

morno
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Old 4th Oct 2012, 12:57
  #133 (permalink)  
 
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Getting out of the soup

That's a great description of the conditions on the day Jaba; gives a really good overview of how easily one can get caught out.

It's very easy to say "if it's not VFR just don't go", that's a statement that would seem to suggest there are two weather states, one okay for VFR flight and one that requires IFR and IFR only. Of course, as your post indicates, things can start out very well and deteriorate around you on the way. And what appears to be a situation you can deal with can then turn nasty without you realising just how bad it is. The other factor is the pressure Des would have been under (which I've referred to in a previous post). They were already a day late with, I believe, a plan to have come back on the Sunday afternoon, and it no doubt may have seemed like it wasn't going to be too difficult to get around the bad weather as he approached it.

I was once flying VFR coastal around Eastern Victoria (somewhere near Mallacoota) just on 500 feet AGL travelling north along the beach in a Beechcraft Sundowner (not a fast machine, we had a 20 knot headwind...cars on the road below appeared to be going faster than us...) The weather was marginal with low ceiling just above me. The forecast was for improving conditions further to the north so I was believing better weather was not too far ahead. I kept seeing patches of blue above me until I (incorrectly) surmised the cloud was breaking up. I decided to climb believing I'd be able to get up a little higher and be free of the low ceiling that appeared to be breaking up above me. I pushed the throttle forward and climbed thinking I'll be above 7/8 or better in no time. I went into cloud (I'm not IFR rated) and I didn't come out until 3800 feet. In brilliant sunshine and crystal clear air I was then flying above a sloping cloud deck, which could have been a disaster in and of itself but I'd read about such things, knew my A/H was working fine and decided I needed to believe the instruments (but clearly I was in an environment I very much knew I shouldn't have been in).

After breaking into the clear I decided the most sensible thing to do was point the aircraft due east (knowing there was no land or mountains until at least NZ) and descend back down at around 400 ft/min until I popped out over water, which I successfully did about 15 miles offshore. I then did a 180 degree turn and headed back to the coast to continue my trip at 500 feet under the ceiling.

It was a defining moment in my flying experience. Fortunately I'd only just recently done a BFR where I'd done about 30 min under the hood so my instrument scanning skills were recent. It taught me a big lesson about believing cloud above you is breaking up or that it's not thick. What I think I did well though was kept climbing after I went into the cloud rather than trying to come back down again when I was near headlands and hills along the coastal stretch and already so low, maintained good instrument scan & control, pointed the a/c away from high ground using very gradual movements and used a low rate of descent to let down back out of it.

It pays to have a plan on what to do if you do go into cloud suddenly and find yourself not breaking out within a few seconds and I'd encourage all VFR pilots to really think about it.

Ren
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Old 4th Oct 2012, 13:03
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Because I don't think a public forum that is trawled by media is the correct place to be discussing my recall of the radio calls during the event.

morno
Fair enough. It's just that I - and from what I read many here - would like to learn from sad events like this one. IOW: how does an experienced pilot paint himself into such a corner...
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Old 4th Oct 2012, 13:45
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how does an experienced pilot paint himself into such a corner...
Very easily....if your flight plan and planned contingencies prove to be inadequate for the situation in which you find yourself then you are well on the path to corner country - and it is very easy to be sucked into a situation that falls outside your contingency plans.

Most of us have pushed on into marginal conditions in the unsubstantiated belief that conditions will improve at some point in our careers...sometimes you get away with it, sometimes you scare yourself and, unfortunately sometimes you get it catastrophically wrong.

Unplanned low level departure from VMC is not a good place to find yourself, no matter how much experience you have in your flight bag.

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Old 4th Oct 2012, 20:27
  #136 (permalink)  
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C1317/12 review c1312/12 tempo restricted area act wi 2nm rad of psn s26 27.2 e152 27.19 5nm se manumbar ala (ymub) queensland (qld) no flight permitted without prior approval from controlling authority ctc: Qld police tel: 0438 200 705 sfc to 4000ft amsl from 10 040119 to 10 090000 est
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Old 4th Oct 2012, 20:50
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Good story RenegageMan. I know a pilot who shall remain nameless that popped into some cloud at circa 500ft after seeing blue above and didn't come out until 7,450ft, right under a 7,500ft class C boundary. Cloud is a beast that is difficult to predict at the best of times.
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Old 4th Oct 2012, 22:03
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How many of us as VFR pilots have ventured into that 178 second realm and been fortunate enough to return.?



I know that I have been there and the three things that came together to bring me and my passengers back were an AH, sufficient fuel and recent simulator time. Without any one of those essentials and a very large dose of luck the last 235 years of the joys and the sorrows of life shared by the seven of us on board would never have been.

What follows is what I wrote of those events for a one of the flying magazines.

One Monday in March some years back, saw me pacing the early morning dew at Bathurst airfield. Our driver, desperate to get back to open his business was looking at his watch as often as was the passenger who had a shop to open in Melbourne. Neither of them understood nor wanted to understand the problem. They could see that the field was clear of storm, gale and fog so why the delay?

Days earlier on the outward journey storms over Katoomba had forced us to abandon the rented Cessna 210 at Bathurst and finish the journey by taxi.
When making plans for a family reunion and celebration weekend in the Blue Mountains this level of stress, uncertainty and delay was not anticipated. On the morning that we were all due back at our various workplaces everyone was stuck at Bathurst while I struggled with the go/no go decision.

So much for a relaxed weekend and for my reputation as someone who gets thing done - on time and on budget. My credibility was eroding fast, while the cloud, with tantalizing slowness , was just barely eroding from the ridge tops.
To balance the briefing office’s gloomy predictions, I obtained an actual weather from and aircraft at Canowindra. Since he was reporting CAVOK below high cloud I decided to take off and check the cloud/ridge interface from up close.

The passengers were loaded and advised that we would be returning to Bathurst if a clear path could not be found.
Viewed from the sky the gaps were larger; the horizontal visibility was definitely an improvement on the slant view from the ground. Not good, but not too bad; & I did have that actual report. Another decision made and VH-BEV rolled onto a track up the most open valley.
There was plenty of width between fingers of wispy cloud that barely reached down to the peaks. Straight ahead of us was a tunnel large enough to turn the QE2 . All I had to do was pop through that tunnel and then it would be smooth flying all the way home. One small obstacle to clear before I would get everyone home with all obligations and promises honoured.

Minutes later those wispy fingers became hands, hands gathering the land up into the cloud. The valley was narrower, and all ahead was grayish white down to the green of the trees. Or was it? Surely it was just another slant line illusion? And if only we were low enough it would again reveal that clear path up the valley. It had after, been clearly visible mere seconds ago.

Gently carefully, I eased the first millimeter off the throttle,. The pasture was now streaming past. A view abruptly punctured by a clump of trees, the mates of whom, I suddenly realized were a bout to obliterate two families.

It was time to stop laying the odds and to seriously aviate. Throttle forward, wings level, ease the trim towards climb. A wisp of mist swiped at the windshield as I checked the power. Then the view completely disappeared. The abruptness was a shock, as was the glaring white blackness.
Glaring white blackness?
That’s the very question that I asked myself. But I saw what I saw.

The engine note changed in step with my reflex snap back on the column and with the passengers’ silence. They were not pilots, but had been oft regaled by pilots’ stories. Do pilots ever tell stories that are not about being disoriented in cloud, stall and spin or other disasters?

I forced myself to focus on the AH. It showed winds level and the nose slightly up – we were climbing straight ahead.
What next?
Something about scan?
Yes Attitude, altitude, speed and direction.
Attitude? Climbing straight ahead, wings level – good.
Altitude? 3500 and climbing at 400 fpm.
Speeds MP? and airspeed OK for climb.
Direction? What direction ? I’d been chasing valleys wherever they led. All sense of direction was well lost.

Fossicking for the charts I remembered Scan!
Scan scan, scan., forget the charts.

I looked out to where there was no wing to see, merely water streaming along the Perspex. Beyond that , nothing, absolutely nothing; just more of that glaring white blackness.
Attitude, altitude, speed and direction
Attitude, altitude, speed and direction
Attitude, altitude, speed and direction
Good training , earlier ignored, asserted itself. The memorized litanies returned. Aviate, communicate, navigate.

Communicate! My God, communicate!. I had so far avoided the rocks in those clouds but what about speeding aluminium rocks?

“Canberra this is Cessna Bravo Echo Victor , VFR to the south of Bathurst seven POB. Passing through seven thousand VFR in solid cloud. Request assistance”.
“ Bravo Echo Victor , say again VFR in cloud?”
“Affirmative VFR in cloud”
“ Bravo Echo Victor, stand by….. Bravo Echo Victor remain this frequency and keep wings level on AH”.
“ Bravo Echo Victor”

” Bravo Echo Victor say again POB? And do you have an instrument rating?”
“Seven POB, no rating”
“ Bravo Echo Victor I am clearing this frequency of all other traffic.
Maintain wings level 0on AH. I repeat keep wings level on AH”
“ Bravo Echo Victor”.
“ Bravo Echo Victor keepings wings level can you advise your present position”.
“Maintaining heading two zero zero leaving 8500 feet on climb.
location unsure”.
“ Bravo Echo Victor, concentrate on wings level on AH. If possible maintain climb. We do not have you on radar at this time”.
“ Bravo Echo Victor”
Attitude, altitude, speed and direction
Attitude, altitude, speed and direction
Attitude, altitude, speed and direction
A tense 40 mins after we had entered cloud and as suddenly as we had originally been engulfed, we were spat out into brilliant light. Clear unblemished blue above and a solid froth of white below.

“Canberra, Bravo Echo Victor is maintaining 11200 on top of solid cloud, heading one eight zero”.
“ Bravo Echo Victor, keep wings level on AH and, if possible, maintain heading and remain clear of cloud”.
‘ Bravo Echo Victor”
“ Bravo Echo Victor your you are radar identified. Can you come onto a heading of one five eight, remaining clear of cloud?”
“One five eight Bravo Echo Victor”.
“Canberra Bravo Echo Victor is visual, ten thousand over Lake George”.
“ Bravo Echo Victor, remaining clear of cloud, descend to 5500. At 5500 contact Canberra approach on 124.5
“124.5 Bravo Echo Victor”

What else to say?
No one factor created the situation. Just the usual story of a cascading sequence of small deviations from best practice. Thankfully good training eventually did take over. On the ground, an excellent service shepherded two vulnerable babies and their families to safety.
Thank-you is so little to offer for such a big service. So little in exchange for seven lives. But thank you ATC was all that I had to offer then and all that I have today.

Calm, assured and professional guidance brought us safely home. That and the instructor who in supervising my transfer from a New Zealand PPL to an Australian one had insisted on a couple of hours of real IFR training in IFR conditions.

Today both of those infants have children of their own . Children who, we can only hope will grow up p forever protected from that subtle cascading sequence of small deviations. That killer cascade that converts people into statistics.
And, I wonder, VH-BEV where are you today?.
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Old 4th Oct 2012, 22:11
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Good description Jaba, and thanks for that appreciation of the conditions in that area.

A long time ago, about halfway through my first 10 years without a instrument rating, I was in one of Don Milroy's Cherokee 6's on the way fom Rocky to Brisbane to pick up a load of Telegraphs. The weather over the hills west of Maleny and at Kilcoy was all storms and rain so much so that I couldn't get though the valley to the Glasshouses, and I went back to Kingaroy and rang the boss. The papers were run out to me there ( the van driver got a smashed windscreen on the way out, so he wasn't happy either....)
When going from here almost due south to Watts Bridge sometimes, my track goes just west of Borumba Dam, over the Amamoor forest where the Gympie Muster is held, and the Tiger Country that is the headwaters of the Mary. Its very timbered, rugged, and gets a high rainfall that helps give the river some flow. Not many clearings for a place to go should my only motor fail. I stay a little higher unless there is something of particular interest, and give it a wide berth with any weather. That said, I don't feel officialdom should get in the act and declare it a no-low-fly area like Carnarvon Gorge.
On the Monday, a local young RAA Instructor who also has a Private licence, hired a 172 that had been IFR, left with two girl friends to drop them over to Toowoomba, but came back because of weather on his track. Good call. He drove them over later. I offered to IFR charter them over in the Navajo but it was declined because he wouldn't be flying and because of the cost.

Experience is not only about weather type, but learning where it can affect you the most, and learning where the Tiger areas are is a big part of that. A little extra fuel (without going overboard) to bypass them can be a boon for an easier flight.
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Old 4th Oct 2012, 22:48
  #140 (permalink)  
 
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Been almost caught myself and I didn't even realise the danger I was in until a few days later.

"Get home itis" heading back to Melbourne from Swan Hill. Just North of Bendigo the ceiling started to descend towards 1000AGL. I had the brilliant idea of pushing on and decided to head for Bacchus Marsh, overflying Daylesford.

As I approached Daylesford, I could see the ceiling over the mountains ahead dropped to a little over 500AGL by my estimate.

"Thats OK" I said to myself, "I'll just squeeze under and then fly down the Lerderderg Gorge" to Bacchus Marsh, then an easy coastal back to YMMB".

.....And I did exactly that....

..and found myself over tiger country, the gorge is very rough....with a very very low ceiling that was descending, not rising.

The next Ten minutes were exciting, and nowhere to go except forward. Luckily I just had room enough to descend a little faster than the cloud.

I should have either returned to Bendigo or gone further West to Ballarat and either landed or followed the freeway down.

Lesson : Unless you can actually see your destination, don't try and squeeze through.
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