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Amelia Earhart PNG Theory

Old 23rd May 2018, 02:16
  #401 (permalink)  
 
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@Greg47

You must have missed out Part 7 of the website...
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Old 23rd May 2018, 09:31
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Chapter7 is fifteen pages plus of some very interesting information , and many people will not be familiar with some of it. I read it some time ago but just refreshed my memory of it since you mention it ,David.
Its all interesting , and your Decision Time and options section on page 15 , and the Excel calculations are fascinating. Has anything in terms of subsequent information arisen since you put it all together a year or so ago,
caused you to rethink anything- or have you any new sections to add to the website?
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Old 23rd May 2018, 11:35
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@propertee64

I mentioned the Earhart Search PNG website Part 7 (again) because Greg47 in his effort to downplay all that I am saying, once again reminded me that he does not read and digest what is written on this thread or bother to read notifications or internet .urls presented for him to read and it is not only myself who has pointed this out. He therefore, has to be reminded… Whether or not he pays attention to the reminding thereof is another matter.

Only today, while clearing papers, I came across a letter from Bill Prymak who had written to a Mr. Don Kenyon who worked at the Lockheed plant at Burbank as a young man and he had affirmed to Bill that engines delivered from Pratt & Whitney were stored outside the plant in crates but had the details of the airframe that they were destined for on tags attached to the engines. Could this then be the kind if tag we are desperate to find, I wonder ?.

Today again, I found a Facsimile letter from the US Embassy in Port Moresby, dated 28th June 2000, where I had gone to the Embassy after I had walked into the wreck of a Consolidated B-24 Liberator bomber on a hill, outside of Yalu Village near to LAE and to the airstrip at NADZAB …..and reported it in to the Embassy. I must also have informed them of the Electra Project and the person I had spoken to had relayed my message to the Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum and a Curator there named Dorothy Cochrane had said, basically, “No, it is not possible”… so nothing resulted from that.

This Project has been widely discussed starting in 2004 when the story appeared in “USA Today” and yet nothing has resulted despite my best efforts to show that what the Australian Vets found on that hillside points to the wreckage being the Earhart Electra. I, personally, do not care how it got there, I think I know by my research into the flight, the fuel usage, the wind and how it would be possible… but that s not good enough.

The wreck that the Vets saw in April 1945 has to be found. That is it.
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Old 23rd May 2018, 17:24
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The resources deployed by the American government at the time, any subsequent chance she may be in ENB would have been investigated. I cant accept that the expertise that has established she is on the bottom near Howland can be ignored. Expertise has established she arrived in the vicinity of Howland with an hours fuel
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Old 23rd May 2018, 18:42
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Uhh greg47? you claimed " Expertise has established she arrived in the vicinity of Howland with an hours fuel "
It appears you have NOT read the Mantaro wqhite paper published in 2016 which I believe easily refutes whatever ' expertise ' involved re the one hours fuel
http://www.mantaro.com/downloads/Ele...ia_Earhart.pdf

In short - using zero wind and 1200 gallons and flying for best range per kelly Johnson numbers and using modern computers to verify his data within a few percent. The following results are shown on page 18
Navigation
At this point in time, the simulation contains no provisions for modeling navigation. The flight is
assumed to be in a straight line from beginning to end.


ZERO headwinds 1200 gal gas
Range 4100 mi 4034 mi
Endurance 26:30 hours 28:03 hours

Now since Howland was in rounded 2600 miles and fuel load appeared to be 1100- or about 5 percent less then the 1200 gal used for kelley and mantero calcs the following simple generalization would apply

2600/4034 = 64 percent range under optimum conditions 4034/28 hours = avg 144 mph ground speed 1200/28 = 42 gph average

with zero headwind 2600/144 = 18 hours. 18 hours times say 45 gph = 810 gallons used 1200 gallons minus 810 = 390 gallons = 8 plus hours

Now given there was perhaps a 30 mph headwind 30 mph times say 20 hours = 600 miles but remaining 8 hours times 144 mph = 1152 miles 1152 miles - 600 = 550 miles = 3.8 hours

So worst case sill leaves around 3 plus hours fuel.

I'm putting together an iterative spreads sheet which should make it easy to change a few variables re known times and milage to determine max and min milage from howland they could have turned around
that seems to be somemwhere between 300 to 600 miles from howland as first cut. download my previous link for a first cut based on mantero data

This is my pdf file-plot showing max range versus distance from Howland when earhart turned back to ' crash' site
BASELINE ITERATION-A.pdf

Conso

Last edited by CONSO; 23rd May 2018 at 18:51. Reason: alignment of tab data
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Old 23rd May 2018, 21:45
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It's time of turnaround to range to crash site that seems to me to be important.

If AE transmitted that she was in vicinity of Howland, how long did she spend looking for it before perhaps heading for New Britain? Half an hour? An hour? What fuel consumption while she was searching?
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Old 23rd May 2018, 22:15
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Originally Posted by Sunfish View Post
It's time of turnaround to range to crash site that seems to me to be important.

If AE transmitted that she was in vicinity of Howland, how long did she spend looking for it before perhaps heading for New Britain? Half an hour? An hour? What fuel consumption while she was searching?
That is the reason behind my iteration spreadsheet pdf which was grossly summarized based on optimal flight in my pdf link above - and is being set up for excel solver use by iterating every 50 or 20 mile increments and allowing range time wind variables. Even without the optimization process, my summary sheet published gives the approx range before turnback to crash site. So far, given a takeoff range of around 3800 miles- subtracting known deviations from straight line and known/estimated range loss due to winds it still comes out around 300 to 600 miles short of howland at time she claimed to be ' overhead ( howland? ) - but more work needs be done.
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Old 24th May 2018, 02:36
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@Sunfish....

Originally Posted by Sunfish View Post
It's time of turnaround to range to crash site that seems to me to be important. If AE transmitted that she was in vicinity of Howland, how long did she spend looking for it before perhaps heading for New Britain? Half an hour? An hour? What fuel consumption while she was searching?
Quite so... The turnaround had to have occurred "after" Earhart spent an hour on a line search....

Firstly, We have Lockheed Report 487 which tells a pilot in a 20 mph headwind to increase speed by 4 mph, ie, 1 mph for each 5 mph of wind. Then there is a C.L. Johnson telegram telling Earhat that : "... if necessary, mixture can be leaned to 0.070 [a Cambridge Mixture Analyser setting] on last half of flight if exceptional head winds exist." So, Lockheed say "speed up" ...while Johnson says weaken the mixture, in effect "slow down".

My MS Excel plot has them holding a steady 155 mph speed at 10,000 feet after the ONTARIO, until they descend towards the 1912 GMT call. They depart the Ontario with 651 USG and an AUW of 11,944 lbs and arrive at 1912 GMT with 339 USG after 8.6 Hours. I am using LR487 data for all Speed settings, ie: from expanded LR487 Page 30 data, I know what H.P setting is required for the speed according to the AUW and the Density Altitude flown. Therefore, my fuel usage figures are fully i.a.w. the LR487 Data.

We then have the 1912GMT call which was from 1,000 ft ALT and the "...must be on you..." was the hopeful statement that they were 'there'. There then followed a 90 degree turn either to the North or South on the "157-337" Line of Position. If the search was for one hour , that means four fifteen minute "legs" up or down that LoP which at 150 mph G/S means a leg of 37.5 miles to a 180 degree turnaround back to the original trackline, cross the trackline and do another leg of 37.5 miles. The two legs therefore covered 75.0 miles. The total area of eyeball scanning possible from 1000' would be an area bounded by a racetrack line, 152.4 miles long and 77.4 miles wide. Nothing seen, even though the ITASCA was emitting black smoke. By 2014GMT they were back on the original trackline having expended 36 USG of fuel by my reckoning,

Something has to be done now and that "thing" is that the previously thought out Contingency Plan is invoked and they turn back for The Gilberts. They have 303 USG remaining. The Electra AUW is 9,854 lbs.

Last edited by David Billings; 27th May 2018 at 05:13.
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Old 24th May 2018, 03:25
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So lets assume there was 6 hrs (which i maintain there wasn't) remaining after abandoning looking for Howland. So they turn around to return to Lae with 6 hrs fuel. Noonan was certainly not such a novice. Why was there no radio reports to that effect. Or even as David now suggests the Gilbert's. Mantaros figures are not the figures Kelly sent to Earhart in Honolulu on the first attempt .They were subsequently heavier out of Lae . I suspect they were speculative figures at the aircraft planning stage and overly optimistic. Not the first manufacturer to overstate the fuel consumption.
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Old 24th May 2018, 05:24
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As David says above. There is a wreck, it was found in 1945 yes soooooo looooong ago.

Spreadsheets, analysis’s, theories, hypothesis, guesstimates, are all fine......

However find that wreck and it solves the mystery........

So back to square one... No money no wrecky......
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Old 24th May 2018, 10:57
  #411 (permalink)  
 
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I agree with everyone who says locate the wreck in ENB
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Old 24th May 2018, 20:42
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David unfortunately lords all who agree with and attempts to denigrate any contrary opinion. If as you say she had 6 hrs fuel after 20 hrs to Howland would Noonan ever give any thought to returning Lae. Kelly Johnson's figures show a different story to Mantaro. I suspect ,but its speculation only, this is a rehash of Locheeds proposal to Putman and Erheart
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Old 24th May 2018, 21:03
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Originally Posted by greg47 View Post
David unfortunately lords all who agree with and attempts to denigrate any contrary opinion. If as you say she had 6 hrs fuel after 20 hrs to Howland would Noonan ever give any thought to returning Lae. Kelly Johnson's figures show a different story to Mantaro. I suspect ,but its speculation only, this is a rehash of Locheeds proposal to Putman and Erheart
I'm puzzled- the mantero white paper was specific to kelley J papers with a fdew corrections- if you read the report

and the numbers I pasted before

ZERO headwinds 1200 gal gas
Range 4100 mi 4034 mi
Endurance 26:30 hours 28:03 hours


Kelley was 4100 miles and mantero simulation was 4034 miles via more discrete computer simulation

Kelley was 26.3 hours and mantero was 28.03

mantero gives avg best speed of 143-144

kelley gives avg best speed of 155-156

All on 1200 gallons zero wind- straight line

so mantero gives avg 42.81 gph and kelley gives 45.6 gph but at a avg 10 mph faster speed.

Now if you simply add up the straigt line ( roundtrip from lae to howland to crash site, it becomes obvious that under any condition- best range zero wind - 2629 plus 2209 = 4838 so given best conditions there is an approx 800 miles deficit- splitinng the diff gives about 400 miles short of howland. Now that can be changed a bit re headwind and tailwing numbers, and a less range to start- but that becomes an probibility excercise to determine how far to howland when turned around..

Last edited by CONSO; 24th May 2018 at 21:17.
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Old 25th May 2018, 00:57
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Could it get back to ENB ?

In Post 348, I wrote:

“David is not trying to "discredit" anyone. David is trying to find out by working an Excel plot of the flight if it was feasible to get back to ENB.”
“The Factual side of the Project says that there is a wreck there which is unidentified with evidence to say that it had Wasp engines and that it is the Electra.... that should get any aviation person's interest.”

Which it has….

The Mantaro Model is interesting but it uses more gas than the aircraft has capacity for (i.e: 1200 USG) and the weight they use is not properly defined but they do mention 16,500 and their wind condition is zero wind.

Only one Electra 10E flew with more than 1200 USG on board and that was “The Daily Express” (C/N 1065) which flew off from a sand beach near Blackpool in England loaded with 1204 USG in tanks and a few spare cans of fuel (“in-air-refuelling”) and landed in New York with about 150 USG after crossing the North Atlantic at 5000’ in icing conditions (it had inflatable L/E boots which degraded the performance). All in all despite the weather and the degraded performance ….and an accidental dumping of fuel, through the skills of the pilots, it made it, surely a tribute to a wonderful aircraft for its’ time….

Lockheed Report 487

When finding out just what this aircraft could do and whether it could get back to ENB, I choose to do it the hard way and the method I employ with the assistance of MS Excel is to have a series of columns representing the weight and work from right to left starting with an AUW and climbing out and following the actual flight data that we do know on the LAE to “vicinity of Howland” flight.

Data from LR 487 has been used throughout this exercise in relation to the H.P. Required and Available. Standard aerodynamic formulae have been applied for climb H.P. required and other formulas have been applied as checks against the numbers. It is worth mentioning that some figures and data within LR487 are incorrect and can be classed as “typos” and the report appears not to have been proof read thoroughly.

LR487 cannot be used “as is”… the data has to be tabulated in a separate MS Excel file and expanded to give all intermediate values of AUW and Velocities. This data file in itself is huge….

This results in a large "plot spreadsheet" in MS Excel of over 80 columns and 45 lines of titles and data, the most important of which is TAS (termed Velocity and in mph), HP required., HP total, HP for climbing, SFC, period Fuel used weight, period Fuel Used USG, Total fuel used, Fuel remaining, Period Time, Elapsed time, wind effect on the TAS, period Distance, Total distance and Distance to run. I generally run the plot in the Cruise phases in periods of 100 lbs of fuel use which gives me round AUW Figures.

Getting back to ENB under the following conditions:

To start, I have used 15,000 lbs AUW and 1151 USG Fuel.

Climb out is at 130 mph followed by a Cruise at 7000’, followed by a brief climb to 10,000’ followed by a descent to 8000’, followed by a cruise at 8000’, followed by a climb to 12,000 feet, followed by a descent to 10,000’ and an arrival at the ONTARIO. These heights follow what Earhart said but I took the liberty of descending to 10,000 feet at the ONTARIO. The wind has been increasing on this flight out from LAE and it is up to -16 mph at CHOISEUL and up to -34 mph on arrival at the ONTARIO.

The preceding details use the locations and time given by Earhart in radio Tx’s. Arrival at the ONTARIO is at 1036 GMT.

From the ONTARIO I used a Cruise at 10,000 feet at 145 mph TAS, wind is -32 and remains so, Height, speed and wind remain as given.

Fuel remaining at the ONTARIO is 651 USG and AUW is 11,944lbs.

After descending to 1000’ at 1912 GMT, the Electra has 339 USG. Distance to Howland is 207 miles.

From that my plot has used an average of 36.2 USGPH between the ONTARIO and 1912 GMT, SFC used was 0.45.

After the search at 2014 GMT fuel remaining is 303 USG, AUW 9854.

The Return:

The Electra then Cruise-climbs at 140 mph at 60’/min initially using a total of 439 H.P. at SFC 0.50.. At TOC 2.5 hrs later (2300 GMT) at 10,000 feet the H.P. has been 396 at SFC 0.50 and now is reduced in the Cruise to 385 H.P. Total, at SFC 0.45. AUW is now 9333 Lbs.

Cruise continues at 145 mph TAS, Wind is +25 throughout, therefore G/S is 170 mph.

At 0807 GMT (6:07pm Local) the last periodic 100 lbs of fuel period has finished, AUW is 8100 lbs, H.P is 351 total, SFC still 0.45., the Electra has 11 USG Remaining and has 30 miles to run to the crash site in the descent from 10,000 feet. The crash site is 1.5 miles back from the coast.

I have the Electra over the crash site area at 0830 GMT (6:30pm Local) just a little early for two of the radio Tx’s heard by Nauru…..

Final

I will say this, while ever, through a thorough exercise using Lockheed Data; this aircraft can be shown to be anywhere near to the shores of ENB at Fuel Exhaustion, then credence MUST be given that the aircraft seen by the Australian Patrol in April 1945 can be the missing Electra.

David.

Last edited by David Billings; 25th May 2018 at 01:14.
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Old 25th May 2018, 11:04
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Any chance the tag will turn up in U.S. archives? I have friends travelling through Texas airbases shortly if that is any help.
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Old 25th May 2018, 19:10
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@Sunfish...

We have doubts as to the Tag being in Australian Records as per Lieutenant Backhouse saying that his belief was that it was sent to"the Americans". At that time in 1945 the patrol members did hear of the response from "the Americans" some five weeks after the patrol had been completed, that the engine they had seen was a Wasp engine and that it did not belong to the U.S.Army, presumably to the U.S. Army Air Force (USAAF). Obviously if the Americans had assessed it as a "Twin Wasp" they would have been interested.

The visit by two U.S. Army Officers to speak to Lieutenant Backhouse means that the message had also been circulated from Australian Forces to a nearby American Unit in New Britain and that unit was Company B of the 594th Engineer Boat and Shore Regiment (EB&SR) left behind in New Guinea to transport Australian Forces in their 30-odd Landing Craft, both from Jaquinot Bay (Palmalmal) and From Kimbe on the north coast. So some interest was shown. Most American Forces units by this time had moved on to Hollandia and in April/May 1945 had reached Manila and the rest of the Phillipines.

After two visits to the CBR War Memeorial myself and one visit from a professional researcher on my behalf, nothing more has resulted from Australian Records, so now we have hopes that the Tag is in American Archives. One of my team lived in Washington and visited the archives at College Park and went through some hundred boxes there and the boxes were full of "everything" that had been in desk drawers at U.S. Units from the SWPA Operations, including paper clips and staples....

Our final hope is the depository at Maxwell AFB at Montgomery Alabama but none of my contacts in the U.S. live in that area and I have to wait until someone gets the time to go there. Apparently when the USAAF became the United States Air Force (USAF) in 1947, the "Army Air Force" records relating to "Army" went to the U.S. Army and the "Air Force" record elements went to Maxwell Air Force Base. It is very likely that the Tag ended up with a Recovery Unit for assessment and it was they who decided it was not an engine from the U.S. Army Inventory, hence, "Not one of ours".

Last edited by David Billings; 25th May 2018 at 21:28.
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Old 25th May 2018, 22:45
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David,

Out of curiosity, what kind of clearance or what is required for one to get clearance to go through the records in archives at Maxwell AFB?

GA.
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Old 26th May 2018, 05:22
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@GlobalAviator...

They do not like people "dropping in" and like potential visitors to give prior notice.

See: Welcome

If you know someone who would go they will need a brief on what to look for and let the AFRA Curators dig the data out before going.
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Old 26th May 2018, 19:00
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David "The return " . Longest range cruise is best achieved at highest allowed power at best ROC speed to optimum altitude. Noonan must have known they would never make it. They wern't aiming for the Binings.
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Old 26th May 2018, 19:30
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Originally Posted by greg47 View Post
David "The return " . Longest range cruise is best achieved at highest allowed power at best ROC speed to optimum altitude. Noonan must have known they would never make it. They wern't aiming for the Binings.
It really depends on just when in time and remaing gas and distance they decided to turn around that point could have been 300 to 600 miles short of howland and assuming no wind or tail wind equal to their long term average headwind.-
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