Could it get back to ENB ?
In Post 348, I wrote:
“David is not trying to "discredit" anyone. David is trying to find out by working an Excel plot of the flight if it was feasible to get back to ENB.”
“The Factual side of the Project says that there is a wreck there which is unidentified with evidence to say that it had Wasp engines and that it is the Electra.... that should get any aviation person's interest.”
Which it has….
The Mantaro Model is interesting but it uses more gas than the aircraft has capacity for (i.e: 1200 USG) and the weight they use is not properly defined but they do mention 16,500 and their wind condition is zero wind.
Only one Electra 10E flew with more than 1200 USG on board and that was “The Daily Express” (C/N 1065) which flew off from a sand beach near Blackpool in England loaded with 1204 USG in tanks and a few spare cans of fuel (“in-air-refuelling”) and landed in New York with about 150 USG after crossing the North Atlantic at 5000’ in icing conditions (it had inflatable L/E boots which degraded the performance). All in all despite the weather and the degraded performance ….and an accidental dumping of fuel, through the skills of the pilots, it made it, surely a tribute to a wonderful aircraft for its’ time….
Lockheed Report 487
When finding out just what this aircraft could do and whether it could get back to ENB, I choose to do it the hard way and the method I employ with the assistance of MS Excel is to have a series of columns representing the weight and work from right to left starting with an AUW and climbing out and following the actual flight data that we do know on the LAE to “vicinity of Howland” flight.
Data from LR 487 has been used throughout this exercise in relation to the H.P. Required and Available. Standard aerodynamic formulae have been applied for climb H.P. required and other formulas have been applied as checks against the numbers. It is worth mentioning that some figures and data within LR487 are incorrect and can be classed as “typos” and the report appears not to have been proof read thoroughly.
LR487 cannot be used “as is”… the data has to be tabulated in a separate MS Excel file and expanded to give all intermediate values of AUW and Velocities. This data file in itself is huge….
This results in a large "plot spreadsheet" in MS Excel of over 80 columns and 45 lines of titles and data, the most important of which is TAS (termed Velocity and in mph), HP required., HP total, HP for climbing, SFC, period Fuel used weight, period Fuel Used USG, Total fuel used, Fuel remaining, Period Time, Elapsed time, wind effect on the TAS, period Distance, Total distance and Distance to run. I generally run the plot in the Cruise phases in periods of 100 lbs of fuel use which gives me round AUW Figures.
Getting back to ENB under the following conditions:
To start, I have used 15,000 lbs AUW and 1151 USG Fuel.
Climb out is at 130 mph followed by a Cruise at 7000’, followed by a brief climb to 10,000’ followed by a descent to 8000’, followed by a cruise at 8000’, followed by a climb to 12,000 feet, followed by a descent to 10,000’ and an arrival at the ONTARIO. These heights follow what Earhart said but I took the liberty of descending to 10,000 feet at the ONTARIO. The wind has been increasing on this flight out from LAE and it is up to -16 mph at CHOISEUL and up to -34 mph on arrival at the ONTARIO.
The preceding details use the locations and time given by Earhart in radio Tx’s. Arrival at the ONTARIO is at 1036 GMT.
From the ONTARIO I used a Cruise at 10,000 feet at 145 mph TAS, wind is -32 and remains so, Height, speed and wind remain as given.
Fuel remaining at the ONTARIO is 651 USG and AUW is 11,944lbs.
After descending to 1000’ at 1912 GMT, the Electra has 339 USG. Distance to Howland is 207 miles.
From that my plot has used an average of 36.2 USGPH between the ONTARIO and 1912 GMT, SFC used was 0.45.
After the search at 2014 GMT fuel remaining is 303 USG, AUW 9854.
The Return:
The Electra then Cruise-climbs at 140 mph at 60’/min initially using a total of 439 H.P. at SFC 0.50.. At TOC 2.5 hrs later (2300 GMT) at 10,000 feet the H.P. has been 396 at SFC 0.50 and now is reduced in the Cruise to 385 H.P. Total, at SFC 0.45. AUW is now 9333 Lbs.
Cruise continues at 145 mph TAS, Wind is +25 throughout, therefore G/S is 170 mph.
At 0807 GMT (6:07pm Local) the last periodic 100 lbs of fuel period has finished, AUW is 8100 lbs, H.P is 351 total, SFC still 0.45., the Electra has 11 USG Remaining and has 30 miles to run to the crash site in the descent from 10,000 feet. The crash site is 1.5 miles back from the coast.
I have the Electra over the crash site area at 0830 GMT (6:30pm Local) just a little early for two of the radio Tx’s heard by Nauru…..
Final
I will say this, while ever, through a thorough exercise using Lockheed Data; this aircraft can be shown to be anywhere near to the shores of ENB at Fuel Exhaustion, then credence MUST be given that the aircraft seen by the Australian Patrol in April 1945 can be the missing Electra.
David.
Last edited by David Billings; 25th May 2018 at 01:14.