Succesor to the Navajo, Chieftain, Metro
Succesor to the Navajo, Chieftain, Metro
Ok we have discussed about replacements for the Chieftain, but only in the contect of building the same airframe again. But what about considering new technology.
A 10 seat twin piston, but instead of using aluminium, use the composite technology that Raytheon devoloped fr the Premire and Horizon light jets, ie., the viper machine that builds a fuselage in 1 piece, wrapping layers of composite material round a mould then cured in an autoclave. Apparently that type of construction is veary suitable for pressurisation.
Next throw in a pair of Theilerts V8 350 Hp jetA1 burning diesels that are attaining fuel specifics that turbines cannot hope to match. A low drag airframe thanks to composites and modern wing design has to yield around 250 kts or so in the high teen FLs.
Is there the market, surely there are RPT routs that will never support an 18 seat a/c.
Is there also a market for an 18 seat replacement for the metro, same fuselage design concept. but with turbines. Is 36 seats becoming the minimum viable seat number??
Just some random thoughts after reading some articles.
Thoughts anyone??
A 10 seat twin piston, but instead of using aluminium, use the composite technology that Raytheon devoloped fr the Premire and Horizon light jets, ie., the viper machine that builds a fuselage in 1 piece, wrapping layers of composite material round a mould then cured in an autoclave. Apparently that type of construction is veary suitable for pressurisation.
Next throw in a pair of Theilerts V8 350 Hp jetA1 burning diesels that are attaining fuel specifics that turbines cannot hope to match. A low drag airframe thanks to composites and modern wing design has to yield around 250 kts or so in the high teen FLs.
Is there the market, surely there are RPT routs that will never support an 18 seat a/c.
Is there also a market for an 18 seat replacement for the metro, same fuselage design concept. but with turbines. Is 36 seats becoming the minimum viable seat number??
Just some random thoughts after reading some articles.
Thoughts anyone??
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Re: Succesor to the Navajo, Chieftain, Metro
Nice thoughts -
Most operators seem reluctant to spend the necessary dollars to look after their current fleet of aging aircraft - what makes you think that they will find the dollars to buy new equipment.
Several years ago the idea was floated of rebuilt Navajos - zero time, new everything inc glass cockpit - $600,000 plus your old machine. Only two takers.
Of course the idea never went any further
The diesel engine has not had a very good intro to Australia - they have a few things to sort out yet.
Most operators seem reluctant to spend the necessary dollars to look after their current fleet of aging aircraft - what makes you think that they will find the dollars to buy new equipment.
Several years ago the idea was floated of rebuilt Navajos - zero time, new everything inc glass cockpit - $600,000 plus your old machine. Only two takers.
Of course the idea never went any further
The diesel engine has not had a very good intro to Australia - they have a few things to sort out yet.
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Re: Succesor to the Navajo, Chieftain, Metro
NMC:
The obvious replacement at the moment is the C208.
About 5 years ago at Oshkosh, a Piper VP told me he believed the era of the PA31/C402 class piston twin is over and out.
Any future Piper in this class (if ever) would be a single PT6 version.
As for the diesel engines; as DD wrote, some problems so far but the biggest issue right now is weight. The 350hp tielert is one heavy puppy.
As for a Metro replacement; the Embraer 120 at 30 seats comes to mind.
The obvious replacement at the moment is the C208.
About 5 years ago at Oshkosh, a Piper VP told me he believed the era of the PA31/C402 class piston twin is over and out.
Any future Piper in this class (if ever) would be a single PT6 version.
As for the diesel engines; as DD wrote, some problems so far but the biggest issue right now is weight. The 350hp tielert is one heavy puppy.
As for a Metro replacement; the Embraer 120 at 30 seats comes to mind.
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Re: Succesor to the Navajo, Chieftain, Metro
I agree with RFG the C208 Grand, but the metro replacement what about Beech 1900D, the Brasilia although cheap might be a little bit big for places that metro's and 1900's can go?
Re: Succesor to the Navajo, Chieftain, Metro
Ahh! Composites! I've yet to be convinced based on my experience of how they perform on water. Composite strength degrades with temperature. They are difficult to repair while maintaining strength, and I'm not sure that they handle minor impacts (stones, dropped tools) all that well.
I'm sure that they will gradually gain acceptance, but I'd like to see what a ten year old Cirrus is looks like. I can't imagine twin diesels just yet either. The PT6 takes a lot of beating.
As a very low time pilot, I'm just starting to appreciate the qualities of the Cessna 172. The newer ones are quite nice inside as well.
I'm sure that they will gradually gain acceptance, but I'd like to see what a ten year old Cirrus is looks like. I can't imagine twin diesels just yet either. The PT6 takes a lot of beating.
As a very low time pilot, I'm just starting to appreciate the qualities of the Cessna 172. The newer ones are quite nice inside as well.
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Re: Succesor to the Navajo, Chieftain, Metro
Well sunfish, if you like the 172, you'll love the 208. Its just a bigger version, loads of fun, good performance, and best of all, easy to fly
Yep the 208 is the ideal replacement for the navajoke/cessna century twins.
Dunno what you'd replace the metro with..another metro perhaps?
Yep the 208 is the ideal replacement for the navajoke/cessna century twins.
Dunno what you'd replace the metro with..another metro perhaps?
Re: Succesor to the Navajo, Chieftain, Metro
but I'd like to see what a ten year old Cirrus is looks like.
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Re: Succesor to the Navajo, Chieftain, Metro
I wonder about composites in central Australia. What happened to the Beech Starship??
Beech put a lot of money into that, and ended up scrapping them all.
Diesel engines are fine (when they have been proved, in about five years) Some of the engines have a long history (in cars) but the gearboxes have not.
Another thread on here tells of a double FADEC failure, and there is an AD which requires mods to the electrical system to avoid engine failure of a diesel.
Deisels have a way to go yet.
Caravans definitely have a future, where there is sufficient regular loading, and they can fly lots of well paid hours. (ie RPT) In 2015 they will probably have taken over fronm the PA31 in the charter area too.
The PC12 and TBM700 have not got started yet (apart from the RFDS), despite being around for a decade or more.
So far, there is not a viable, affordable replacement for the PA31, and there is great danger that our sales people, and our regulator will make life too dificult for the PA31 operators, and huge areas of the country will be deprived of proper air transport.
Many of the new machines are not appropriate for very low density operations.
Beech put a lot of money into that, and ended up scrapping them all.
Diesel engines are fine (when they have been proved, in about five years) Some of the engines have a long history (in cars) but the gearboxes have not.
Another thread on here tells of a double FADEC failure, and there is an AD which requires mods to the electrical system to avoid engine failure of a diesel.
Deisels have a way to go yet.
Caravans definitely have a future, where there is sufficient regular loading, and they can fly lots of well paid hours. (ie RPT) In 2015 they will probably have taken over fronm the PA31 in the charter area too.
The PC12 and TBM700 have not got started yet (apart from the RFDS), despite being around for a decade or more.
So far, there is not a viable, affordable replacement for the PA31, and there is great danger that our sales people, and our regulator will make life too dificult for the PA31 operators, and huge areas of the country will be deprived of proper air transport.
Many of the new machines are not appropriate for very low density operations.
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Re: Succesor to the Navajo, Chieftain, Metro
Bushy, you're saying the newish turbines are too expensive to run? Why is that? Are those factors likely to change over time?
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Re: Succesor to the Navajo, Chieftain, Metro
Isn't the point with the PC12 and TBM 700 aircraft was that they were designed around the concept of long distance flights at FL type altitudes. Therefore, operating them on short sector flights makes them uneconomic.
A manager with the RFDS has told me that over long sectors their PC12 aircraft can be operated for the same cost as a PA31.
The problem with the C208 is that over long sectors it is slow. Where I fly there can be some very long days (over 7 hours in a B58 on several occassions) and the 30 knot difference between a C208 and piston light twins makes one hell of disadvantage. In addition I have heard from a C208 operator that temperatures in Central Australia have given the PT6 some cause for concern.
Despite that I really believe it is not too far into the future that the vast majority of the commercial piston powered GA fleet will no longer be viable. Already, if you follow the Aviation Trader, the prices of such aircraft is falling and the sales time is getting longer and longer.
Operators without the capital to re-equip with new aircraft will go out of business and those that think they will fund their retirements by selling their businesses and aircraft should find out where their nearest Centrelink office is so they can sign up for the pension.
A manager with the RFDS has told me that over long sectors their PC12 aircraft can be operated for the same cost as a PA31.
The problem with the C208 is that over long sectors it is slow. Where I fly there can be some very long days (over 7 hours in a B58 on several occassions) and the 30 knot difference between a C208 and piston light twins makes one hell of disadvantage. In addition I have heard from a C208 operator that temperatures in Central Australia have given the PT6 some cause for concern.
Despite that I really believe it is not too far into the future that the vast majority of the commercial piston powered GA fleet will no longer be viable. Already, if you follow the Aviation Trader, the prices of such aircraft is falling and the sales time is getting longer and longer.
Operators without the capital to re-equip with new aircraft will go out of business and those that think they will fund their retirements by selling their businesses and aircraft should find out where their nearest Centrelink office is so they can sign up for the pension.
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Re: Succesor to the Navajo, Chieftain, Metro
What about the old C207 for navajo replacements.JPG)
can fit up to 11 of our indigenous cousins at once and can be flown in formation
can fit up to 11 of our indigenous cousins at once and can be flown in formation
Re: Succesor to the Navajo, Chieftain, Metro
Some interesting points raised, but some other issues need to be considered as well.
The C208 is a brilliant aircraft, for the role it was designed. But it isnt pressurised, or fast enough. ie only 170 kts or so.
A turbine engine is much more expensive to buy, operate and maintain. A new PT-6 for th Caravan runs around 250,000 USD+. A hot section inspection runs easily 115,000 and an obverhaul around 200K..thats in USD.
The Thielert V8 will run about 70,000-90,000 Euros brand new and use at least 1/3 less fuel per hp. Overhauls/replacement will be significantly cheaper that the Continental /Lycomming counterparts.
A PC-12, which being a fantastic aircraft it its own right is 3+ million USD proposition, can do everything a new Chieftain would, but at double the price, operating cost, not to mention the engine overhauls.
Unfornatately, I didnt find a new TBM-850 under my christmas tree damnit !!!!! I really realy want one.
The C208 is a brilliant aircraft, for the role it was designed. But it isnt pressurised, or fast enough. ie only 170 kts or so.
A turbine engine is much more expensive to buy, operate and maintain. A new PT-6 for th Caravan runs around 250,000 USD+. A hot section inspection runs easily 115,000 and an obverhaul around 200K..thats in USD.
The Thielert V8 will run about 70,000-90,000 Euros brand new and use at least 1/3 less fuel per hp. Overhauls/replacement will be significantly cheaper that the Continental /Lycomming counterparts.
A PC-12, which being a fantastic aircraft it its own right is 3+ million USD proposition, can do everything a new Chieftain would, but at double the price, operating cost, not to mention the engine overhauls.
Unfornatately, I didnt find a new TBM-850 under my christmas tree damnit !!!!! I really realy want one.
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Re: Succesor to the Navajo, Chieftain, Metro
757 M...would agree with your sentiments on the C-208,flew one out of Aniak,Alaska for a year.My only concern was its stability with small accumulations of ice on the elevator.I believe several crashes were attributed to this.
The later models were fitted with de-ice boots....(just an observation)
The later models were fitted with de-ice boots....(just an observation)
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Re: Succesor to the Navajo, Chieftain, Metro
Originally Posted by drshmoo
can fit up to 11 of our indigenous cousins at once and can be flown in formation
Someone's knocked off it's wheels!!........
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Re: Succesor to the Navajo, Chieftain, Metro
Now why is a turbine more expensive to run? 5000hr tbo more like $250,000 au for an overhaul and hot sections of between $50,000 to $100,000 for a real bad one. Work that out on an per hour cost and its cheaper than two big turbo charged pistons which you have to baby.
Try operating a Turbine v's a Nav or Cheif and you'll see why when people wake up there won't be any of those old heaps of junk flying around.
Try operating a Turbine v's a Nav or Cheif and you'll see why when people wake up there won't be any of those old heaps of junk flying around.
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Re: Succesor to the Navajo, Chieftain, Metro
Turbines are great, if you can get the govt or the public to pay for the purchase costs.
Otherwise you have to find about 100 grand a month to buy and insure something like a PC12.
I saw one outfit lose about four million in depreciation on a failed turbine operation.
Otherwise you have to find about 100 grand a month to buy and insure something like a PC12.
I saw one outfit lose about four million in depreciation on a failed turbine operation.
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Re: Succesor to the Navajo, Chieftain, Metro
.. another diesel problem (which apparently is the reason we don't high end European diesels in Oz) is the lack of a diesel fuel spec in Oz ... the quality is quite variable and those of us who drive diesels experience occasional problems which are straight fuel quality related.
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Re: Succesor to the Navajo, Chieftain, Metro
John T
The Thielerts are designed to run on Jet A-1 also. Probably easier to get at most airports than Diesel as well.
The gearbox issue though is still a Jury out affair.
The Thielerts are designed to run on Jet A-1 also. Probably easier to get at most airports than Diesel as well.
The gearbox issue though is still a Jury out affair.
Re: Succesor to the Navajo, Chieftain, Metro
What about Cessna developing a wing "strutless" and retractable undercarriage version of the Caravan? Surely there'd have to be a market for this type of aircraft.
It's been done in the past with 206/210, even though the 206 was a development of the 210.
Or would this compete too directly with the Reims C406?
On another note, when will changes occur to CAO 82.3 regarding PIC on other than high capacity aircraft (the 500 multi PIC thingy) and subsequently regional airlines' mins? I know of a caravan driver with about 200 multi and a fair stack of caravan time but the regionals won't have a look at him. Let's face it, he does exactly the same job as me and probably does the same amount of assymetrics as me (during CIR renewal), unless of course a real one hits me! I know Cathay group the two types of flying into the same category.
It's been done in the past with 206/210, even though the 206 was a development of the 210.
Or would this compete too directly with the Reims C406?
On another note, when will changes occur to CAO 82.3 regarding PIC on other than high capacity aircraft (the 500 multi PIC thingy) and subsequently regional airlines' mins? I know of a caravan driver with about 200 multi and a fair stack of caravan time but the regionals won't have a look at him. Let's face it, he does exactly the same job as me and probably does the same amount of assymetrics as me (during CIR renewal), unless of course a real one hits me! I know Cathay group the two types of flying into the same category.