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langleybaston 19th June 2025 10:39

I read that 'Only' the USA B2 Spirit can carry and drop the MOP bomb/missile to damage Fordow sufficiently.

However, I believe the IDF have C130s. Surely that has sufficient lift, and surely the ingenious IDF could cobble together the necessary mods?

That ignores the practicality of borrowing a MOP or two, but stranger things have happened. In WW II Lancasters were modded very quickly to carry the various Barnes Wallis weapons.

Just sayin'

ORAC 19th June 2025 10:41

https://tinyurl.com/5c7xxrrb

China signals readiness to step into Iran-Israel conflict

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday voiced strong concern over Israel’s recent military actions against Iran, warning that continued escalation threatens regional stability and undermines international interests.

Speaking during a high-level summit with Central Asian leaders in the Kazakh capital of Astana, Xi said China is “deeply worried” about the intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran.

His comments marked Beijing’s first public statement on the latest round of military exchanges in the region, which erupted last Friday.
“Israel’s military operation against Iran has sharply worsened tensions in the Middle East,” Xi said, according to China’s official Xinhua News Agency. “We oppose any actions that infringe upon the sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity of other countries.”

In a bilateral meeting with Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Xi warned that military conflict is not a viable path to resolve disputes and called for restraint by all parties involved. “Rising instability in the region does not serve the common interests of the international community,” he said.

The Chinese president’s statement comes as Israeli airstrikes continue to target Iranian military infrastructure, prompting fears that the confrontation could spiral into a broader regional war. China has historically positioned itself as a neutral actor in Middle East affairs but has growing economic and energy stakes in the region—especially with Iran.

According to Chinese state sources, Xi emphasized China’s readiness to work with all sides to prevent further escalation and to help restore peace and stability in the Middle East. “China is willing to play a constructive role in bringing the region back to stability,” he said.

China’s concern over the Israel-Iran conflict also reflects deeper strategic calculations. The Chinese economy depends heavily on Iranian oil exports, and any disruption in supply chains or spike in global energy prices would likely worsen China’s ongoing economic slowdown. Beijing has invested heavily in energy infrastructure linked to Iran, including through its Belt and Road Initiative.

Although Xi did not mention the energy dimension directly in his remarks, Chinese officials have privately acknowledged that continued instability in the Gulf could pose a direct threat to national energy security. More than half of China’s crude oil imports from the Middle East come from or pass through the Persian Gulf region.

China has recently strengthened diplomatic ties with Gulf states, including Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Iran itself. In recent days, Beijing also reached out to Oman with a message that “we cannot sit by” and let the Israel-Iran situation spiral out of control, according to the Foreign Ministry of Oman.

While China has no formal defense alliance with Tehran, Beijing has been a consistent voice against Western-led military interventions in the Middle East and has supported diplomatic alternatives in regional disputes.

Xi’s remarks reinforce China’s broader narrative as a counterbalance to U.S. influence in the region—urging dialogue and criticizing unilateral military action. However, critics argue that Beijing’s engagement has been largely rhetorical and lacks the political leverage needed to de-escalate major regional conflicts.

TWT 19th June 2025 11:36


Originally Posted by langleybaston (Post 11905912)
I read that 'Only' the USA B2 Spirit can carry and drop the MOP bomb/missile to damage Fordow sufficiently.

However, I believe the IDF have C130s. Surely that has sufficient lift, and surely the ingenious IDF could cobble together the necessary mods?

That ignores the practicality of borrowing a MOP or two, but stranger things have happened. In WW II Lancasters were modded very quickly to carry the various Barnes Wallis weapons.

Just sayin'

Probably wouldn't work due to slower speed and lower max. altitude than a B-2 giving much less kinetic energy
but never say never :)

See this story which discusses the proposal.


One major area where the C-130 would be at a disadvantage to the B-2, beyond its survivability and ability to carry two MOPs at once, is its speed and altitude. The Hercules flies substantially lower and slower than the B-2, which would have an impact on the weapon’s overall impact force, and likely substantially so. A C-130 dropping the same weapon at 25,000 feet and 250 miles per hour will result in significantly less kinetic force of impact than a B-2 dropping the weapon at 50,000 feet and 500 miles per hour. This is a big deal for a munition that is meant to burrow down as deeply as possible into a mountain and detonate.
https://www.twz.com/air/could-israel...bunker-busters
...
...
....

Frostchamber 19th June 2025 11:53

On timing of any full-scale US intervention, precedent suggests they normally take time to get overwhelming force fully in place before making a move. That process appears to be ongoing.

artee 19th June 2025 12:05


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11905913)
https://tinyurl.com/5c7xxrrb

China signals readiness to step into Iran-Israel conflict

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday voiced strong concern over Israel’s recent military actions against Iran, warning that continued escalation threatens regional stability and undermines international interests.

Speaking during a high-level summit with Central Asian leaders in the Kazakh capital of Astana, Xi said China is “deeply worried” about the intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran.

His comments marked Beijing’s first public statement on the latest round of military exchanges in the region, which erupted last Friday.
“Israel’s military operation against Iran has sharply worsened tensions in the Middle East,” Xi said, according to China’s official Xinhua News Agency. “We oppose any actions that infringe upon the sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity of other countries.”

<snip>

My bold.

I don't recall him saying that about Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Must be my memory.

Frostchamber 19th June 2025 13:29

Slightly clickbaity headline. Nothing in Xi's words about "stepping in" militarily, rather a readiness to "work with both sides" to de-escalate etc.

visibility3miles 19th June 2025 16:18


Originally Posted by spinex (Post 11900918)
Strikes me, that if the only response you can muster to sucessful attacks on multiple military installations, is to dump some ordinance on a major civilian centre, you're stuck neatly behind the 8 ball. One could make a similar observation about Russia's response to the recent Ukranian raids.

Even if you have interfered with incoming missiles so they don’t strike their ”intended” targets, the debris has to land somewhere. It doesn’t disappear in a poof of smoke. It’s hazardous junk.

I use the word “intended” in quotes, as I’m not sure they’re aiming at anything in particular. They may just be shooting anywhere that seems like a weak spot in Israel’s defense shield, leading Israel to ask that citizens not post the locations of where missiles/drones/bombs have successfully landed/exploded.

RAFEngO74to09 19th June 2025 17:36

White House Presser just now - statement from President Trump:

“Based on the fact there is a chance for substantial negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision on whether or not to go within the next two weeks.”

BRUpax 19th June 2025 17:39


Originally Posted by RAFEngO74to09 (Post 11906217)
White House Presser just now - President Trump will decide what action to take with Iran within next 2 weeks. So looks likely to wait for any acceptable negotiation rather than anything imminent this weekend - and for any necessary forces to be in position..

Or put the enemy slightly off guard!

RAFEngO74to09 19th June 2025 17:55


Originally Posted by BRUpax (Post 11906220)
Or put the enemy slightly off guard!

Exactly! Personally I think that IDF SF might do something in the meantime especially as some pundits are claiming that B-2A + GBU-57 MOP might not be able to finish the job.
The NSC meeting yesterday was short so no doubt President Trump knows the answer one way or the other on the likelihood of success with GBU-57 but also has to weigh the risks of retaliation on US forces in the area.

Biggus 19th June 2025 17:59

Tomorrow is "within the next two weeks"...

But if he does wait the best part of 14 days before enacting a decision the situation may well have changed significantly.

SWBKCB 19th June 2025 18:13


Originally Posted by artee (Post 11905970)
My bold.

I don't recall him saying that about Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Must be my memory.


In a bilateral meeting with Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Xi warned that military conflict is not a viable path to resolve disputes and called for restraint by all parties involved.
Same with this one from the same article - hopefully he practises what he preaches!

DuncanDoenitz 19th June 2025 18:34


Originally Posted by RAFEngO74to09 (Post 11906217)
White House Presser just now - statement from President Trump:

“Based on the fact there is a chance for substantial negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision on whether or not to go within the next two weeks.”

This has a familiar ring.

It's not TACO, it's TWACO; Two Weeks And Chicken Out.

ORAC 19th June 2025 20:41

2 Chinese electronic intelligence ships, the 855 and the 815A, are in the Persian Gulf, sucking in everything they can on Israeli F-35, F-15 and other assets operating overhead Iran including their EW systems.

H I Sutton - Covert Shores

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_815_spy_ship

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....58190c4451.png

RAFEngO74to09 19th June 2025 20:51

US Fox News Senior White House Correspondent - debunking nonsense in The Guardian Trump caution on Iran strike linked to doubts over ‘bunker buster’ bomb, officials say | Iran | The Guardian

"A White House official tells me the contents of this report are false – that the US military has no doubt about the efficacy of bunker busters in eliminating the site at Fordow, also denying that any options (including tactical nukes) have been taken off the table."

West Coast 19th June 2025 21:07


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11906356)
2 Chinese electronic intelligence ships, the 855 and the 815A, are in the Persian Gulf, sucking in everything they can on Israeli F-35, F-15 and other assets operating overhead Iran including their EW systems.

H I Sutton - Covert Shores

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_815_spy_ship

In other news, dog bites man.

We do it, they do it. We (the west) do it to one another such as the French at Red Flag. I’d be surprised if they weren’t there.

ORAC 19th June 2025 21:19

There are modes and capabilities you use use in peacetime practice and exercises and there are those you only ever use in war.

I think the Chinese are happy to be on the sidelines of the latter.

ORAC 19th June 2025 21:26

👍👍👍👍👍

Israel shattered a myth that many clueless voices believed:

Drones haven’t replaced multirole jets. Despite Iran’s massive drone fleet and missile arsenal, Israeli F35, F15, and F16 jets dominate the skies. Air superiority still belongs to modern, well-organized air forces.

Elon Musk once claimed F35 multirole jets were obsolete because of drones. Operation Rising Lion proves how wrong—and clueless—that take was. Iran’s air defense and air force were large, but outdated. Israel dismantled them in days. Drones alone don’t win wars.

Russia couldn’t do this in Ukraine, despite a bigger air force. Israel’s success shows the power of a proper modern air force.

Ukraine needs more than just air defense—it needs jets, missiles and bombs for them, and AWACS to protect civilians and deter future threats…….

Let’s step up…. Ukraine’s air power is its shield—and our responsibility.

West Coast 19th June 2025 21:31


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11906385)
There are modes and capabilities you use use in peacetime practice and exercises and there are those you only ever use in war.

I think the Chinese are happy to be on the sidelines of the latter.

I would imagine so.

ORAC 19th June 2025 21:34

Unsubstantiated, but still….


​​​​​​​BREAKING: Over the past hours, signs of deepening crisis in Iran have emerged.

Regime media warn of “internal elements” pushing clerics toward surrender amid war with Israel.

Meanwhile, Reza Pahlavi exiled crown prince and opposition leader claims the regime’s command structure is collapsing and talks on a post-Islamic Republic future have begun.

​​​​​​​Reza Pahlavi, son of the last Shah, is a polarizing figure. Some Iranians see him as a symbol of secular democratic transition; others view him as out of touch or tied to a bygone monarchy.

Tasnim News, which is affiliated with Iran’s IRGC, framed the situation as a potential act of betrayal. It warned that “bad-faith elements” may be trying to push clerics in Qom toward surrender or compromise with Israel.

(This sound like a coup attempt)


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