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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

golfbananajam 3rd Mar 2022 11:06


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11193870)
the EW environment does seem to be rather benign, possibly another consequence of their comms limitations?

What makes you say this? Do you expect that EW capabilities and associated results to be made public? Personally, from past experience, I can imagine the EW environment to be very busy.

dead_pan 3rd Mar 2022 11:17


Originally Posted by golfbananajam (Post 11193900)
What makes you say this? Do you expect that EW capabilities and associated results to be made public? Personally, from past experience, I can imagine the EW environment to be very busy.

I was referring to Russian EW activities. I would have expected there to have been an EM blizzard there by now - no TV or phone signals etc.

admikar 3rd Mar 2022 11:42

Regarding Russians treating prisoners fairly, I guess both sides are lying through their teeth.
I am guessing for every prisoner that is shown being fine, there are at least ten being beaten up.
One thing that does make me wonder, if everything is going that fine for UKR forces, why the release of military experienced prisoners few days ago?
Heard today that Moscow admited 500 KIA abd 1500 WIA. I'm sure it's a lot more than that. Do we know what are Ukrainian military losses? Both personel and material?

Beamr 3rd Mar 2022 11:53

This sounds interesting, coming from a Belarusian media. No confirmation however from other sources so far. If you dont count Linda Thomas-Greenfield making a statement in the UN yesterday of Putin threatening Finland and Sweden with an invasion.


NutLoose 3rd Mar 2022 11:55

Lexif has posted this on jetblast, it is the AN225 on fire in its shed :*


NutLoose 3rd Mar 2022 12:09


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11193931)
This sounds interesting, coming from a Belarusian media. No confirmation however from other sources so far. If you dont count Linda Thomas-Greenfield making a statement in the UN yesterday of Putin threatening Finland and Sweden with an invasion.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1499227333688975365


Don't forget Finland discovered a secret Russian base on one of their islands a couple of years back with barracks, 9 piers, a helipad, and CCTC covering the whole island owned by a Russian.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a8612161.html

Beamr 3rd Mar 2022 12:15


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11193939)
Don't forget Finland discovered a secret Russian base on one of their islands a couple of years back with barracks, 9 piers, a helipad, and CCTC covering the whole island owned by a Russian.

When the russian owner was asked why he built all those dock there he said he likes to swim around the island :D

fab777 3rd Mar 2022 12:16


Do we know what are Ukrainian military losses? Both personel and material?
Probably huge. But they die defending their country, which is different from dying invading another.

[email protected] 3rd Mar 2022 12:44

It's still young men dying in wars started by old men.............

Flyhighfirst 3rd Mar 2022 12:45


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11193931)
This sounds interesting, coming from a Belarusian media. No confirmation however from other sources so far. If you dont count Linda Thomas-Greenfield making a statement in the UN yesterday of Putin threatening Finland and Sweden with an invasion.

Cant see it really happening. Finland and Sweden are both part of the EU. The EU has a binding mutual defence clause in the charter.

Doing so would have him start a conflict with the entire EU, and given what we have seen so far even without the US he wouldn’t stand a chance against the combined militaries of the EU.

Brewster Buffalo 3rd Mar 2022 12:53

..France “strongly” urged its citizens on Thursday to leave Russia if their presence there was “not essential”, following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and the closure of airspace between Russia and the European Union.
....
From France24.com...perhaps HMG should give the same advice?

Flyhighfirst 3rd Mar 2022 12:53


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11193833)
The US is to set up a 'Kleptocapture' task force in Monaco to go after the assets of oligarch's linked to Putin's regime. Looks like a fun job.

On which note, I bet Abramovich is sweating about liquidating his assets in London and elsewhere in Europe, him now being a 'person of interest'.

That's why he is selling Chelsea. It’s hard to move a football club offshore. Quick
sell of his assets here and sent offshore to be hidden QuickTime.

Tartiflette Fan 3rd Mar 2022 12:56


Originally Posted by tartare (Post 11193679)
Yep - it's a 40-60 percent hit to Germany's energy supply and others, and short/medium term will create huge economic problems.
?

A few days ago I read in focus.de that gas reserves are good until springtime with no mention of any restrictions.

Tartiflette Fan 3rd Mar 2022 13:05

RETURN TO SENDER

Germany sending 2 700 Strela missiles from DDR stocks to Ukraine.

This is very strange. I didn't think Germany had the same mentality as Russia about holding on to old weaponry and would also have thought they would be time-limited in some way, as i can't believe that the BRD would have ordered any updates from Russia;

https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland..._59208600.html

fab777 3rd Mar 2022 13:10

"Putin tells Macron Russian military operation 'will be completed'

In their phone call Thursday, President Putin told French counterpart Emmanuel Macron that the tasks of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine would be fulfilled in any case, and urged him to join efforts to ensure the safe evacuation of foreign citizens from Ukraine.

Putin explained that it was about demilitarization and the neutral status of Ukraine, so that a threat to Russia would never come from its territory, and that attempts to gain time by delaying negotiations would only lead to the emergence of new demands on Kiev."

It looks like no one told Vlad that the invasion is not going on schedule, and that the cost of fulfilling those tasks is rapidly rising.

A French ex-military analyst told "Le Monde" today, that, according to him, the Russian army has engaged 2/3rd of its actual combat capacity in Ukraine, and in the long term, there is no way it can escape a costly and persistent guerilla war. All those lost capacities will have to be rebuild, and Russia is not exactly getting richer...

Sue Vêtements 3rd Mar 2022 13:14


Originally Posted by Flyhighfirst (Post 11193961)
That's why he is selling Chelsea

It would be funny if someone bought it and changed the kit from all blue, to blue shirts with yellow shorts and socks

henra 3rd Mar 2022 13:35


Originally Posted by fab777 (Post 11193974)
A French ex-military analyst told "Le Monde" today, that, according to him, the Russian army has engaged 2/3rd of its actual combat capacity in Ukraine, and in the long term, there is no way it can escape a costly and persistent guerilla war. All those lost capacities will have to be rebuild, and Russia is not exactly getting richer...

That's what really puzzles me. What is the plan after a possible initial military win? Those people now fighting for their Country won't suddenly disappear or become happy Janukovich Supporters. They are right now impressively dealing with one of the biggest Ground- Forces Army of the world. How should an unwelcome socket puppet government survive once the majority of the current Russian forces have left the Country again?
Therefore Putin will have to leave 50.000++ Troops permanently in Country. And those will keep getting decimated by Ambushes, IED, and all those weaponry (Stingers, Javelins, NLAW, etc) happily floating around. Every now end then an IL-76 will take a fatal plunge on approach or takeoff when replacing troops. Ground troop transports will be ambushed and eliminated across the Country. Ukraine is a huuuge Country (2,5x UK, 4.5x England). 50.000 troops will mean a veeeery thin occupation. Reenforcement will be hours away.
I really have difficulties to understand what Putin's plan for day X + 100 is!?

Hamish 123 3rd Mar 2022 13:44


Originally Posted by henra (Post 11193983)
I really have difficulties to understand what Putin's plan for day X + 100 is!?

My worry is that he conceivably didn't even have one, he's just gone ahead with the invasion against all advice. That makes him an exceedingly dangerous man, as all options are open in his mind.

NutLoose 3rd Mar 2022 13:51

They are losing some serious high rankers


Andrei Sukhovetsky, deputy commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army of the Central Military District, died yesterday, Ukrainian news outlets report.

They referred to a post on Russian social media platform VKontakte written by Sergei Chipilev, a deputy of the Russian veterans group, Combat Brotherhood.

It said: ‘It is with great sorrow that we learned of the tragic news about the death of our friend, Major General Andrei Aleksandrovich Sukhovetsky, on the territory of Ukraine during a special operation.’
Top Russian general 'killed fighting in Ukraine in major blow for invaders' (msn.com)

Sue Vêtements 3rd Mar 2022 14:02

do you think he was "killed" or do you think he spoke up against the invasion?

NutLoose 3rd Mar 2022 14:07

Or failed to take the objectives? so was "replaced" with some who now knows the price of failure.

Tartiflette Fan 3rd Mar 2022 14:10


Originally Posted by Sue Vêtements (Post 11193994)
do you think he was "killed" or do you think he spoke up against the invasion?


"A military source confirmed that he was killed 'by a sniper', and suggested a funeral for the Major General - by far the most senior Russian figure to have died in the conflict thus far - will be held in Russia on Saturday."

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...oops-died.html

edit:

On reflection, " a sniper" does , of course, leave all options open.

Ninthace 3rd Mar 2022 14:28

Stories starting to appear in reputable outlets, such as Reuters, that Russia is moving to a declaration of martial law.

Sue Vêtements 3rd Mar 2022 14:33

"Here General, hold these binoculars for a sec - oh wait I think I left my wallet in the tank. I'll be right back . . ."

Sue Vêtements 3rd Mar 2022 14:35


Originally Posted by Ninthace (Post 11194005)
Stories starting to appear in reputable outlets, such as Reuters, that Russia is moving to a declaration of martial law.

. . . so he's going to invade his own country as well?

AndySmith 3rd Mar 2022 14:36


Originally Posted by henra (Post 11193983)
That's what really puzzles me. What is the plan after a possible initial military win? Those people now fighting for their Country won't suddenly disappear or become happy Janukovich Supporters. They are right now impressively dealing with one of the biggest Ground- Forces Army of the world. How should an unwelcome socket puppet government survive once the majority of the current Russian forces have left the Country again?
Therefore Putin will have to leave 50.000++ Troops permanently in Country. And those will keep getting decimated by Ambushes, IED, and all those weaponry (Stingers, Javelins, NLAW, etc) happily floating around. Every now end then an IL-76 will take a fatal plunge on approach or takeoff when replacing troops. Ground troop transports will be ambushed and eliminated across the Country. Ukraine is a huuuge Country (2,5x UK, 4.5x England). 50.000 troops will mean a veeeery thin occupation. Reenforcement will be hours away.
I really have difficulties to understand what Putin's plan for day X + 100 is!?

From something I read recently, 50,000 troops to garrison a hostile country the size of the Ukraine isn't going to be anywhere near enough.

Ripton 3rd Mar 2022 14:38


Originally Posted by Sue Vêtements (Post 11194009)
. . . so he's going to invade his own country as well?

or he doesn't want his own team sneaking around after lights out?

dead_pan 3rd Mar 2022 14:45


Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11193997)
"A military source confirmed that he was killed 'by a sniper', and suggested a funeral for the Major General - by far the most senior Russian figure to have died in the conflict thus far - will be held in Russia on Saturday."

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...oops-died.html

edit:

On reflection, " a sniper" does , of course, leave all options open.

Surprised they didn't say an open window fell on him..

dead_pan 3rd Mar 2022 14:46


Originally Posted by Ninthace (Post 11194005)
Stories starting to appear in reputable outlets, such as Reuters, that Russia is moving to a declaration of martial law.

Either he's fearful of a coup, mass uprising, or people fleeing the country in their droves

RAFEngO74to09 3rd Mar 2022 14:49


Tyres O'Flaherty 3rd Mar 2022 14:52


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11194018)
Either he's fearful of a coup, mass uprising, or people fleeing the country in their droves


Unlikely if there's anything to this blog post from Reddit

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com...content=header

macmp419 3rd Mar 2022 14:55


Originally Posted by Sue Vêtements (Post 11194009)
. . . so he's going to invade his own country as well?

Could be......

Ukraine's foreign minister claims Russia could be about to attack itself in 'false flag' operation

Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine's foreign minister, says there are reports that Russia could be preparing to carry out a false flag operation by attacking their own territory to blame Ukraine.

These allegations have not been verified, and could be false.

A false flag operation is an attack that aims to disguise the real source of the aggression in the hopes that your opponent is blamed.

Popovka, a rural community, is close to Russia's border with Ukraine.

Source - Sky News live updates (time stamped at 12:51)

NutLoose 3rd Mar 2022 14:59

From RAFEngO74to09 link


NEW: Russia's intelligence agency, the Federal Security Service, has drafted plans for public executions in #Ukraine after cities are captured, per a European intelligence official
I take it they are trying to put the fear of God into the populace in the hope it will quell any guerilla warfare and crush the resistance................... how did that work out for old Adolf in France?


Put twitter links in a quote and they show. :)


..

Herod 3rd Mar 2022 15:21

Just musing, although I'd be surprised if several governments aren't thinking along these lines. Contact, individually and secretly, three or four of the top men in Putin's circle. Offer an amnesty from war crimes, a substantial amount of money, a new identity and somewhere safe and warm, in exchange for Putin, alive, delivered to the Hague. That sets off the thought "If Yuri does it, he'll get the reward, and I'll still be liable for war crimes". They can't confer among themselves, since they don't know who is going to tell Putin. See who breaks first.

[email protected] 3rd Mar 2022 15:27

How many of the Russian top brass and politburo really relish the idea of living in a nuclear wasteland or as international pariahs? They can't all be bonkers.

Thrust Augmentation 3rd Mar 2022 15:37


Originally Posted by [email protected] (Post 11194044)
How many of the Russian top brass and politburo really relish the idea of living in a nuclear wasteland or as international pariahs? They can't all be bonkers.

Not bonkers, but propaganda mushrooms for the large part - forever fed nonsense & kept in the dark.

Lingering Cold War paranoia probably doesn't help either.

WB627 3rd Mar 2022 15:49


Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11193997)
"A military source confirmed that he was killed 'by a sniper', and suggested a funeral for the Major General - by far the most senior Russian figure to have died in the conflict thus far - will be held in Russia on Saturday."

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...oops-died.html

edit:

On reflection, " a sniper" does , of course, leave all options open.

No indication as to whose side the sniper was on


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