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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

NutLoose 21st Jan 2023 19:50


Originally Posted by Video Mixdown (Post 11371022)
It's a great shame that this tank issue is causing such division amongst allies when what is needed at this point is unity in confronting Putin's expansionism.

In one, and also has a knock on effect on future NATO operations, I realise Ukraine is an odd ball and maybe a one off, but it does highlight weaknesses and divisions in a centralised NATO commitment.

To plagiarise the three Musketeers, it should be all for one and one for all.

Xeptu 21st Jan 2023 21:30


Originally Posted by Video Mixdown (Post 11371022)
It's a great shame that this tank issue is causing such division amongst allies when what is needed at this point is unity in confronting Putin's expansionism.

The real truth most likely is that no-one has a main battle tank that's of any real use for a myriad of reasons and that no-one wants to be embarrassed by that like Russia is. Best to appear strong than remove all doubt.

ORAC 21st Jan 2023 22:55

Mark Hertling riposte regarding the Abrams vs Leopard thread post earlier…..


Buster Hyman 22nd Jan 2023 04:13


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11371049)
To plagiarise the three Musketeers, it should be all for one and one for all.

Wasn't there a thread on a European Army Nutty?

ORAC 22nd Jan 2023 06:22

Dea King and general across the board update of operations.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...near-black-sea


Ukraine Situation Report: Donated Sea King Helicopter Makes Debut Near Black Sea

tucumseh 22nd Jan 2023 08:31


Originally Posted by _Agrajag_ (Post 11370983)
There is a great deal of merit in paying to retain a UK capability, The proviso is that it MUST be interoperable. The UK has a very nasty habit of producing unicorns, and then not having the funds to keep them operational and properly supported.

Agreed.

The largest and most important Infantry programme of the last few decades originally had 'Interoperability' in the title of the oversight and management authority. The aim was to reduce casualties, through integration and interoperability increasing tempo. DEC insisted that 'Interoperability' be removed before approval. 'We aren't required to be interoperable with our own people (RN and RAF, or even other Army units), never mind allies'.

To this day it's not in the title. It's an aspiration, not a policy.

RetiredBA/BY 22nd Jan 2023 08:55


Originally Posted by langleybaston (Post 11370940)
Do we have VSOs among us?

And if so, are any smart?

If they were smart, one might think the least they could do was to fully crew the few aircraft we have in the modern RAF !

ORAC 22nd Jan 2023 12:06

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....9336f628c.jpeg

ORAC 22nd Jan 2023 12:10

The Economist:

Vladimir Putin’s war is turning Russia into a failed state, with uncontrolled borders, private military formations, a fleeing population, moral decay and the possibility of civil conflict.

https://www.economist.com/the-world-...ing-into-chaos

ORAC 22nd Jan 2023 14:32

Thinks tense between Washington and Berlin…

​​​​​​​Interesting report from SZ on the Leopards 2 debacle and the discussions between the US and Germany

"The refusal from Berlin led to violent reactions in Washington"

Lloyd Austin is said to have gotten into a heated argument with Scholz's chief of staff….

Not_a_boffin 22nd Jan 2023 15:01


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11370979)
I think any replacement new build needs to be home built, buying in has a quality all of its own, however, buying in means the demise of the UK’s tank building industry, the closing of factories and the dispersal of the design teams meaning you will be beholden to other countries for your Armaments from hence forth. Look what happened to the likes of the UK’s once world beating military aviation companies, killed off by imports.

Pardon the maritime metaphor, but that ship has sailed. The only real "tank-builders" in the UK closed well over a decade ago - and we haven't designed a "new" main battle tank in the UK since the mid-80s, so it's not as if there was a design team to disperse in the first place..

_Agrajag_ 22nd Jan 2023 15:33


Originally Posted by Not_a_boffin (Post 11371496)
Pardon the maritime metaphor, but that ship has sailed. The only real "tank-builders" in the UK closed well over a decade ago - and we haven't designed a "new" main battle tank in the UK since the mid-80s, so it's not as if there was a design team to disperse in the first place..

Not only did Leeds close, but we also sold off the R&D place that came up with Chobham armour. Doubt we have the expertise to either design or build heavy armour now. Same goes for a lot of other kit. We sold off RSRE years ago, so lost the ability to design our own comms and radar kit.

There comes a point where the loss of capability from cuts in spending, or Thatcherite selling off our expertise for next to nothing, is going to seriously bite us in the bum. Being dependent on other nations for key expertise and manufacturing capability puts us at the mercy of both those other nations and the influence of the multinational commercial entities they rely on. The war in Ukraine should be a wake-up call. We've seen how one petty tyrant can cause massive global disruption.

Everyone in the UK, and many other countries, has felt the impact of so many countries being influenced badly by one tyrannical state. I doubt our bloody government will take a blind bit of notice, though. Learning lessons from experience is not something governments do.

Sfojimbo 22nd Jan 2023 16:04


Originally Posted by _Agrajag_ (Post 11371507)
Being dependent on other nations for key expertise and manufacturing capability puts us at the mercy of both those other nations and the influence of the multinational commercial entities they rely on.

The entire world has grown interdependent, this is no longer the days of yore when everybody was a potential enemy. Rather than 'going it alone', becoming part of something larger seems to be the order of the day.


Originally Posted by _Agrajag_ (Post 11371507)
The war in Ukraine should be a wake-up call. We've seen how one petty tyrant can cause massive global disruption.

The war in Ukraine also points out how important friends can be.

Maybe Britain can find some way to undo Britexit?

Timmy Tomkins 22nd Jan 2023 16:04

Thatcherite selling off our expertise for next to nothing, is going to seriously bite us in the bum. From Agrajag

Not just in this field either. The family Silver was sold off then and has kept being so. Politics drove construction of two new aircraft carriers and I leave it to those who know a lot more than me to judge if that was the right priority. Frankly I doubt it

NutLoose 22nd Jan 2023 16:11

Ukraines new Sea Kings

​​​​​​​

NutLoose 22nd Jan 2023 16:13


Originally Posted by Not_a_boffin (Post 11371496)
Pardon the maritime metaphor, but that ship has sailed. The only real "tank-builders" in the UK closed well over a decade ago - and we haven't designed a "new" main battle tank in the UK since the mid-80s, so it's not as if there was a design team to disperse in the first place..

https://www.rheinmetall-defence.com/...land/index.php

_Agrajag_ 22nd Jan 2023 16:25


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11371522)


The key is in the wording "Rheinmetall BAE Systems Land (RBSL) is a UK-based combat vehicles design, manufacturing and support business."

It is neither UK owned nor UK controlled. All "UK based" expertise and capability could be shut down and moved at the drop of a hat. Nothing the UK government could do to stop it.

henra 22nd Jan 2023 16:38


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11371484)
Lloyd Austin is said to have gotten into a heated argument with Scholz's chief of staff….

He should not only shout at the chief of staff (who can't decide this on his own). This won't be sufficient. He should also shout at the perpetrator himself (Scholz). Or maybe Biden himself can give him a (verbal) beating?! I'm still counting on NSA to find material regarding Wirecard or Cum- Ex. When the trainings on Leo 2 start now they have roughly two months for putting pressure on Scholz/Schmidt without losing to much time effectively. Hope that works.

Tartiflette Fan 22nd Jan 2023 16:40


Originally Posted by _Agrajag_ (Post 11371533)
The key is in the wording "Rheinmetall BAE Systems Land (RBSL) is a UK-based combat vehicles design, manufacturing and support business."

It is neither UK owned nor UK controlled. All "UK based" expertise and capability could be shut down and moved at the drop of a hat. Nothing the UK government could do to stop it.

"All "UK based" expertise and capability could be shut down and moved at the drop of a hat"

Care to prove what you write ?

Tartiflette Fan 22nd Jan 2023 16:43


Originally Posted by henra (Post 11371540)
He should not only shout at the chief of staff (who can't decide this on his own). This won't be sufficient. He should also shout at the perpetrator himself (Scholz). Or maybe Biden himself can give him a (verbal) beating?! I'm still counting on NSA to find material regarding Wirecard or Cum- Ex.

How can they do that ? It would require humans with expertise in German financial law to read every document.

Tartiflette Fan 22nd Jan 2023 16:48


Originally Posted by Timmy Tomkins;11370856[b[b
]]It's reassuring to see that thGermany is competing with the UK for lies.

Yesterday I asked what you meant by this, but no answer. Are you going to answer today ?

_Agrajag_ 22nd Jan 2023 16:51


Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11371541)
"All "UK based" expertise and capability could be shut down and moved at the drop of a hat"

Care to prove what you write ?

It's a German owned company, part of the Rheinmetall Group based in Düsseldorf. The IPR on a lot of their technology is owned by the group. Germany may be a NATO ally and friendly towards the UK, but things can change. Germany, Italy, The Netherlands and a few other European states have just found out how things can change quickly with gas supplies.

The fact is that the UK is largely beholden to a German company as far as heavy armour goes. We are seeing Germany refusing to allow armour to be sent to Ukraine because they own the IPR and end user chits. Do we want to be in that position?

NutLoose 22nd Jan 2023 17:39

Netting around a Krab prevents a suicide drone kill.


NutLoose 22nd Jan 2023 17:45


Originally Posted by _Agrajag_ (Post 11371533)
The key is in the wording "Rheinmetall BAE Systems Land (RBSL) is a UK-based combat vehicles design, manufacturing and support business."

It is neither UK owned nor UK controlled. All "UK based" expertise and capability could be shut down and moved at the drop of a hat. Nothing the UK government could do to stop it.


A new British military vehicle design, manufacturing and support joint venture will be unveiled at this year’s Defence and Security Equipment International (DSEI) event in London, between September 10th and 13th.
The new company is known as Rheinmetall BAE Systems Land (RBSL) and was formed on July 1st 2019 between Rheinmetall Defence UK and BAE Systems’ UK combat vehicle business. RBSL will sustain around 450 jobs across the UK and is well positioned for future growth.
The joint ventur
Well that says a joint venture.

uxb99 22nd Jan 2023 17:48


Originally Posted by Timmy Tomkins (Post 11371516)
Thatcherite selling off our expertise for next to nothing, is going to seriously bite us in the bum. From Agrajag

Not just in this field either. The family Silver was sold off then and has kept being so. Politics drove construction of two new aircraft carriers and I leave it to those who know a lot more than me to judge if that was the right priority. Frankly I doubt it

On the radio a few days ago they mentioned the government was going to prop up British Steel with money.
The only trouble is British Steel is Chinese owned.
How does that happen?

_Agrajag_ 22nd Jan 2023 17:54


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11371566)
Well that says a joint venture.

It all depends on who owns the IPR and end user rights to key technology. We've seen this loads of times before. We're seeing it with Germany and their refusal to allow other countries to send Leopards to Ukraine. Challenger 3 is a good example. It will be fitted with a Rheinmetall turret. That means that Rheinmetall will hold the end user rights over that part of the vehicle. Potentially that could stop the UK from giving Challenger 3's to any country without Germany's consent.

We've already been through this with other joint ventures. It's nothing new. Just because something is made by a joint venture does not grant one of the members unilateral control on how the product is used.

NutLoose 22nd Jan 2023 18:28

Boris is back in Ukraine showing his support for them, no doubt some of his detractors will slate him for it, but I have nothing but admiration for his support for Ukraine and their people, He puts himself in harms way to show that support and bolster the Ukrainian resolve.


NutLoose 22nd Jan 2023 18:34

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....1a7b645cbe.png

Tartiflette Fan 22nd Jan 2023 18:36


Originally Posted by _Agrajag_;11371549[b
]It's a German owned company, [/b]part of the Rheinmetall Group based in Düsseldorf. The IPR on a lot of their technology is owned by the group. Germany may be a NATO ally and friendly towards the UK, but things can change. Germany, Italy, The Netherlands and a few other European states have just found out how things can change quickly with gas supplies.

The fact is that the UK is largely beholden to a German company as far as heavy armour goes. We are seeing Germany refusing to allow armour to be sent to Ukraine because they own the IPR and end user chits. Do we want to be in that position?

Well no, not as I understand company law. It is 55% Rheinmetall and 45% BAE. Unless you are privvy to full contractual data about the partners rights and responsibilities, your remark about everything could be closed down "just like that " is just unfounded speculation.

Video Mixdown 22nd Jan 2023 18:45


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11371580)
Boris is back in Ukraine showing his support for them, no doubt some of his detractors will slate him for it, but I have nothing but admiration for his support for Ukraine and their people, He puts himself in harms way to show that support and bolster the Ukrainian resolve.

Absolutely. Arguably Ukraine would already be lost without his leadership on this.

NutLoose 22nd Jan 2023 18:57

I am not going there anymore with the Rheinmetall BAe set up, it is dragging the thread away from what is important, the war.

USA is offering tanks from their stocks to those countries willing to free the Leopards.

​​​​​​​

langleybaston 22nd Jan 2023 19:05


Originally Posted by Video Mixdown (Post 11371592)
Absolutely. Arguably Ukraine would already be lost without his leadership on this.

I am not a BoJo fan but, for all his many faults, in my opinion he did three statesmanlike things in his premiership:

delivered Brexit [not fault-free], the will of the majority.
acted deciseivly in the early days of Covid, eg astra zeneca, before making an arse of himself yet again.
led the world in supporting Ukraine.

Not politics, statesmanship. And I reiterate that I am not a fan, and not a Conservative.

NutLoose 22nd Jan 2023 19:09

U.K. has upped the Challenger deliveries to 16 up 2 from the original 14


_Agrajag_ 22nd Jan 2023 20:25


Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11371585)
Well no, not as I understand company law. It is 55% Rheinmetall and 45% BAE. Unless you are privvy to full contractual data about the partners rights and responsibilities, your remark about everything could be closed down "just like that " is just unfounded speculation.

Not how it works. Look at other joint ventures. Even a minor partner can own critical IP that controls how the bit of kit gets used. Daft example, but the UK nuclear deterrent wasn't wholly under UK control. There was a lot of US IP in most of the weapons that meant the US called the shots on what the UK could or could not do.

We are seeing Germany refusing to allow other countries send their Leopards to Ukraine. What's to stop Germany refusing to allow the UK to send any kit with a German IP turret somewhere it doesn't want to?

As for moving out of the UK, then there is nothing in law keeping production at Telford. It's there because BAE took over Alvis, and Alvis produced armoured vehicles in Telford. If it is cheaper to manufacture in another country then what's to stop them just shutting up shop? It's happened with small arms. When the small arms ROF got bought by Heckler and Koch UK small arms manufacture moved to Germany (Oberndorf, I believe).

Herod 22nd Jan 2023 20:26

In the clip of Boris, post 13796, isn't the Union Flag upside-down? That used to be a signal for distress I believe.

ORAC 22nd Jan 2023 20:49


Not how it works. Look at other joint ventures. Even a minor partner can own critical IP that controls how the bit of kit gets used.
Hmm, no.

If they have input into the end-user certificate they can influence who you can sell it too - they can’t influence how you use it yourself.

ORAC 22nd Jan 2023 21:30

BREAKING: Germany will not stand in the way if Poland sends leopard tanks to Ukraine, Germany's foreign minister says - Reuters


​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1..._Rh_rgOXSGu15Q
​​​​​​​

tdracer 22nd Jan 2023 21:40


Originally Posted by Not_a_boffin (Post 11371496)
we haven't designed a "new" main battle tank in the UK since the mid-80s, so it's not as if there was a design team to disperse in the first place..

To be fair, the Abrams entered service in the 1980s. So it's not like anyone has a MBT design team currently in place.
OTOH, neither the Abrams or Leopard have shown notable weaknesses in actual combat. Hence the focus has been on updating them with more modern technology rather than doing a new design.

ORAC 22nd Jan 2023 22:24

I am beginning to wonder how long Ukrainians were training on Bradley's in Germany before the announced transfers.🤔

American infantry fighting vehicles M2 Bradley are spotted in Poland today

Polish railway company PKP Polskie Linie Kolejowe transports Bradleys toward the Ukrainian border.

rattman 22nd Jan 2023 22:38


Originally Posted by tdracer (Post 11371675)
To be fair, the Abrams entered service in the 1980s. So it's not like anyone has a MBT design team currently in place.

MPFP - even tho the US doesn't call it a tank its a tank.
Abrams X - or abrams replacement is on the drawing board
Euro MBT is being developed by france and germany
Panther prototype was released by Rheinmetal
Tracked boxer has also been demoed
K2 - development of upgrades and national specs is still happening ie K2PL

So yeah plenty of tank design teams still working away


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