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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

ORAC 5th Sep 2022 08:34

DIY drone towed radar decoy…. :}


ORAC 5th Sep 2022 10:15

Ukraine’s hackers registered a number of fake women's accounts on social networks, tricked 🇷🇺 soldiers into sending photos that they geolocated, and shared with the 🇺🇦 military. A few days later, identified 🇷🇺 base near occupied Melitopol was blown up by Ukrainian artillery.

FUMR 5th Sep 2022 10:36


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11291094)
Ukraine’s hackers registered a number of fake women's accounts on social networks, tricked 🇷🇺 soldiers into sending photos that they geolocated, and shared with the 🇺🇦 military. A few days later, identified 🇷🇺 base near occupied Melitopol was blown up by Ukrainian artillery.

As mentioned by some in that Twit post, why announce this clever ploy to the world? For that reason I will consider it FAKE!

NutLoose 5th Sep 2022 10:58

Warning good old Aviation content.


ORAC 5th Sep 2022 11:43

I’m shocked, I tell you, shocked…..

MOSCOW, Sept 5 (Reuters) - A Russian-installed official in Ukraine's Kherson region said on Monday that plans for a referendum on joining Russia had been "paused" due to the security situation, Russian state-owned news agency TASS reported.

Beamr 5th Sep 2022 12:03

Interesting comparison, as in 2022 Russia has not achieved the bombing accuracy of the US of the 90s.

"Results of a USAF precision attack on a Serbian airbase in 1999 vs a Russian attack in February 2022 on the Ukrainian Air Force's Ozerne Air Base, home of the 39th Tactical Aviation Brigade equipped with Su-27s"


NutLoose 5th Sep 2022 12:12

More aviation content...sorry ;)



The bad guys


Some of their latest losses?





Recc 5th Sep 2022 12:43


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11291144)
Interesting comparison, as in 2022 Russia has not achieved the bombing accuracy of the US of the 90s.


"Results of a USAF precision attack on a Serbian airbase in 1999 vs a Russian attack in February 2022 on the Ukrainian Air Force's Ozerne Air Base, home of the 39th Tactical Aviation Brigade equipped with Su-27s"


Not sure that a GBU-31 dropped from a few miles away is a fair comparison with an SS-26 strike from across the border. Maybe comparison with ATACMS would be more useful.

FlightDetent 5th Sep 2022 13:07

Reddit reports Aeroflot commercial service from Moscow to Sochi takes a direct routing over Donbas and Luhansk regions, quite a stunt.

For what reason?

pasta 5th Sep 2022 13:57


Originally Posted by FlightDetent (Post 11291188)
Reddit reports Aeroflot commercial service from Moscow to Sochi takes a direct routing over Donbas and Luhansk regions, quite a stunt.

For what reason?

You're right, there's one doing it now. It's almost as if they thought that whoever shot down MH17 wouldn't take a pop at an Aeroflot flight...

FUMR 5th Sep 2022 14:09

The cynic in me thinks that, in view of the Russian leadership's attitude to Russian lives, they want Ukraine to shoot down one of their civilian aircraft so that they (Russia) can cry foul and drive world opinion against Ukraine. I hope the UAF won't fall for that.

melmothtw 5th Sep 2022 14:09


Originally Posted by pasta (Post 11291221)
You're right, there's one doing it now. It's almost as if they thought that whoever shot down MH17 wouldn't take a pop at an Aeroflot flight...

They clearly feel quite safe, which is curious given that they said it was the Ukrainian Air Force that shot down MH17.

FlightDetent 5th Sep 2022 16:12


Originally Posted by FUMR (Post 11291228)
The cynic in me thinks .
​​​​​​... ​​​​​

... much uglier than having UKR take a shot at it and then cry foul.

langleybaston 5th Sep 2022 16:30


Originally Posted by FlightDetent (Post 11291301)
... much uglier than having UKR take a shot at it and then cry foul.

I most certainly would not buy a ticket on that flight .................. and who on earth would insure it?

pasta 5th Sep 2022 17:06


Originally Posted by FlightDetent (Post 11291301)
... much uglier than having UKR take a shot at it and then cry foul.

Oh, cripes! I hadn't thought of a false flag, but it would be entirely in character :-(

FUMR 5th Sep 2022 17:40

I was suggesting false flag by Russia.

FlightDetent seemed to be suggesting the possibility of false flag by Ukraine.

I suppose both is possible. However, in this instance I would put my money on Russia. Imagine the outcry if the Ukraine did such a thing and were found out!

langleybaston 5th Sep 2022 17:44


Originally Posted by FUMR (Post 11291361)
I was suggesting false flag by Russia.

FlightDetent seemed to be suggesting the possibility of false flag by Ukraine.

I suppose both is possible. However, in this instance I would put my money on Russia. Imagine the outcry if the Ukraine did such a thing and were found out!

Virtually unimaginable, because Ukraine has tried consistently to occupy the moral high ground, and be the man in the white hat.
Much as it has always been absurd that they would endanger their own nuclear power station.

NutLoose 5th Sep 2022 18:22

WOW, shows Russians after they got hit filmed by themselves i take it the rounds you can here are them cooking off, but what is a WOW is in the replies


Now I do not know if this is correct, but it is rumoured ATACMS listed in the latest aid, that’s 190 mile range.




tdracer 5th Sep 2022 18:31


Originally Posted by Recc (Post 11290815)
They will argue that any peace is better than war, and that we should force Ukraine to negotiate (by threatening to withdraw support) so that a compromise can be reached.

I had a discussions a few years ago with the daughter of a work associate (also a very good friend). Young (~16 at the time), and very much a pacifist. She said something about the waste of our spending all this money on weapons and the military. I looked at her and said "War is awful - unimaginably awful. Sometimes the alternative is worse." She looked bewildered and said 'how?'. I said "Hitler, genocide, The Holocaust".
She got kind of quiet after that...

cynicalint 5th Sep 2022 18:45

Nutty, that is an officially classified document, albeit Restricted. People can, and have, got into trouble for distributing that material outside proper channels, even second hand..

Obba 5th Sep 2022 18:53


Originally Posted by cynicalint (Post 11291398)
Nutty, that is an officially classified document, albeit Restricted. People can, and have, got into trouble for distributing that material outside proper channels, even second hand..

Too late now LOL!


NutLoose 5th Sep 2022 18:54


Originally Posted by cynicalint (Post 11291398)
Nutty, that is an officially classified document, albeit Restricted. People can, and have, got into trouble for distributing that material outside proper channels, even second hand..

The pics are on and all over Twitter, I posted it because I didn’t think it was genuine. Hence I wondered if it was a fake to fool the Russians to relocate defences to protect against a threat that did not exist. I’ve taken it down and swear you all to secrecy? Or should I tell you Trump declassified it?

.

cynicalint 5th Sep 2022 19:00

You could be right! Let's hope you are....I do like the rest of your posts though thanks.

langleybaston 5th Sep 2022 19:00


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11291404)
The pics are on Twitter, I posted it because I didn’t think it was genuine. Hence I wondered if it was a fake to fool the Russians to relocate defences to protect against a threat that did not exist.

Can British citizens be punished for reproducing leaked US documents? I suppose so.

NutLoose 5th Sep 2022 19:03

Russia’s anti air is deliberately not turning on their radar to avoid harm meaning the Bayraktars are having a field day


meleagertoo 5th Sep 2022 20:05


Originally Posted by FUMR (Post 11291228)
The cynic in me thinks that, in view of the Russian leadership's attitude to Russian lives, they want Ukraine to shoot down one of their civilian aircraft so that they (Russia) can cry foul and drive world opinion against Ukraine. I hope the UAF won't fall for that.


100%
Without a shadow of a doubt.
Pity the poor civvy crews forced to fly that route.
They must be terrified.

Recc 5th Sep 2022 21:03


Originally Posted by meleagertoo (Post 11291438)
100%
Without a shadow of a doubt.
Pity the poor civvy crews forced to fly that route.
They must be terrified.

Is there any actual evidence that a Russian civilian aircraft flew through (or close to) Ukrainian airspace? I'm very sceptical.

Tartiflette Fan 5th Sep 2022 21:04


Originally Posted by meleagertoo (Post 11291438)
100%
Without a shadow of a doubt.
Pity the poor civvy crews forced to fly that route.
They must be terrified.

Please explain why Ukraine would have any interest, any interest at all, in doing that ? Don't you think that would be a massive own-goal ?

albatross 5th Sep 2022 21:30


Originally Posted by meleagertoo (Post 11291438)
100%
Without a shadow of a doubt.
Pity the poor civvy crews forced to fly that route.
They must be terrified.

I would not put it past the Russians to shoot one down themselves.
Having lost friends and acquaintances on MH17. I have no doubt they are capable of doing it without batting an eye.
To quote Al Capone, when being informed that a planned Chicago gangland hit could leave innocent bodies strewn about, responded: “I’ll send flowers.”

FUMR 5th Sep 2022 22:27


Originally Posted by Recc (Post 11291468)
Is there any actual evidence that a Russian civilian aircraft flew through (or close to) Ukrainian airspace? I'm very sceptical.

Actually, you may have a point. Checking FR I have noticed the odd flight heading south as if going to overfly eastern Ukraine and then suddenly jump to the now usual route well east of that. I'm no FR expert but it may have something to do with predicted flightpath. Maybe DR can help us with that.

FlightDetent 6th Sep 2022 00:53


Originally Posted by FUMR (Post 11291361)
FlightDetent seemed to be suggesting the possibility of false flag by Ukraine.

That was just bad grammar. The other way around; but even that is beyond imaginable.

BlankBox 6th Sep 2022 01:58


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11291383)
WOW, shows Russians after they got hit filmed by themselves i take it the rounds you can here are them cooking off, but what is a WOW is in the replies



https://twitter.com/ArthurPolitic/st...44116817924097

Now I do not know if this is correct, but it is rumoured ATACMS listed in the latest aid, that’s 190 mile range.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com..._with_english/

With Orc into English X'lation...

Beamr 6th Sep 2022 06:00

Lo and behold, the russkies must be VERY desperate and out of ammo buying artillery shells and rockets from North Korea.


Originally Posted by WASHINGTON, Sept 6 (Reuters)
U.S. intelligence has assessed that Moscow is buying millions of artillery shells and rockets from North Korea, the New York Times reported
...
U.S. officials said they could confirm that the New York Times reporting was accurate and that additional Russian purchases of North Korean military equipment were expected.
"The Russian Ministry of Defense is in the process of purchasing millions of rockets and artillery shells from North Korea for use on the battlefield in Ukraine," an official said by email when asked about the paper's report.
The official said the purchases indicated that the Russian military "continues to suffer from severe supply shortages in Ukraine, due in part to export controls and sanctions."


https://www.reuters.com/world/russia...rt-2022-09-06/


kamanya 6th Sep 2022 06:08


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11291613)
Lo and behold, the russkies must be VERY desperate and out of ammo buying artillery shells and rockets from North Korea.

In a future post…

Oh! Look, a Russian ship mysteriously sunk just after leaving a North Korean port?

GeeRam 6th Sep 2022 07:34


Originally Posted by kamanya (Post 11291615)
In a future post…

Oh! Look, a Russian ship mysteriously sunk just after leaving a North Korean port?

Can't see them using ships, most likely load them onto trains and take them across the rail bridge Russia-NK border crossing over the Tuman River.

skua 6th Sep 2022 07:49

This shows Ukrainian hackers are very neat and apparently effective.
Aviation content - they sent spoof bomb threats to Russia-bound flights.
https://on.ft.com/3TEH6Pn

FUMR 6th Sep 2022 07:50

"Bridge catches fire and collapses after railway worker lights up a cigarette"

Beamr 6th Sep 2022 07:52


Originally Posted by GeeRam (Post 11291652)
Can't see them using ships, most likely load them onto trains and take them across the rail bridge Russia-NK border crossing over the Tuman River.

Russian train bridges are known for self collapsing under the mental burdeon of carrying ammunition trains. Which then again are known to commit suicide by spontaneous combustion due to smoking cigarrettes. It's a long way from NK border to Ukraine and it is highly likely there will be mentally unstable bridges and trains along the way.

DaveReidUK 6th Sep 2022 08:40


Originally Posted by FUMR (Post 11291504)
Actually, you may have a point. Checking FR I have noticed the odd flight heading south as if going to overfly eastern Ukraine and then suddenly jump to the now usual route well east of that. I'm no FR expert but it may have something to do with predicted flightpath. Maybe DR can help us with that.

Live tracks on FR24 can be a bit erratic, better to look at completed ones.

There are about 70 round trips per day between Moscow (SVO/DME/VKO) and Sochi. A random sample of a few shows them all routeing via the Caspian Sea, going nowhere near Ukraine.

NutLoose 6th Sep 2022 09:38

More aviation content of the bad guys, I would have thought flying through a fields crop irrigator is just asking from trouble



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