The South China Sea's Gathering Storm
 

China has picked it's time well, with Afghanistan and Syria bubbling away and the election due in the USA.....

The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

All of East Asia is waiting to see how the U.S. will respond to China's aggression..

Well, that'd be a first...:\

I guess there's no oil then?

Australian general to help lead US military push into Pacific | World news | guardian.co.uk

:ouch:

China and Japan: two nations locked in mutual loathing

The historic enmity between the two countries – now resurfacing in a dispute over sovereignty – threatens stability in East Asia

U.S. Looms Large Over China’s Sovereignty Disputes

Possibly loads of oil but whenever anyone tries to take a look-see the other counties all send a gun-boat..........

They really all need to sit around a table and discuss this - without the USA present - they are sovereign states

China refuses to sit down with everyone involved at once... they insist that the only way they will talk is with one nation at a time, and that all resulting treaties must be between themselves and each other nation individually.

Naturally, the other nations insist that the disputes must be solved "all-at-once" so that there are no contradictory treaties, and so that they can stand together against China.

The UN put out a proposal over a decade ago that assigns all but the very center group of islands to specific nations, but no one has yet accepted that, since it didn't completely solve the issue.

" Australian general to help lead US military push into Pacific"


Well we have to help the US, they are a bit heavy handed and
need someone to help them understand the region:O


On a serious note, probably a flow on from Aussie generals being at the top
of the Ops tree in Iraq which seemed to work well.

The only time I could imagine China actually acting is when the countries internal socio/economic problems reach a point that stirring up jingoism is the only way to deflect attention away from the governments faults & mistakes.

The CCP is winging it at the moment & best be careful - the mob could just as likely look for domestic targets rather than Japan...

Greenknight is correct - the Chinese can only see the table would be them on one side, everyone else on the other and the Americans next door

TBF the Chinese have a reasonable record of negotiating fair boundaries on a one-to-one basis but they'll never sit down if they think its another 19th Century stitch-up

OASC circa 1960

Well Bloggs, where do think the next conflict might be

I think the Spratleys is a possibility sir.

Top hold bloggs, collect your commission from the office on your left.

OASC circa 1970

Well Bloggs, where do think the next conflict might be

I think the Spratleys is a possibility sir.

Top hold bloggs, collect your commission from the office on your left.

OASC circa 1980

Well Bloggs, where ......

You get my drift

problem is that sometimes long term disputes flare up suddenly

think Falklands or the India China Border in '62

best to deal with them when the world is (relatively) quiet

Ehmm not sure that it would be a first.

I seem to remember some words from some yank politician:

On the 25th, Saddam Hussein met with April Glaspie, an American ambassador, in Baghdad. According to an Iraqi transcript of that meeting, Glaspie told the Iraqi delegation, "We have no opinion on the Arab-Arab conflicts." According to Glaspie's own account, she stated in reference to the precise border between Kuwait and Iraq, "(...) that she had served in Kuwait 20 years before; 'then, as now, we took no position on these Arab affairs'."

Sounds like a similar position to me:ugh::ugh:

Torygraph: China's Revolution Risk

The future looks goods for these two nations, as western economies fail a move to a closer economic relationship between China and Russia will make them hugely less reliant on the west.
‘Slowly but surely, China has been winning its rivalry with Japan' — RT

Russia's trade with Asia-Pacific region to be more than with EU in 10 years — RT

Interesting article about Hillary Clinton in China:-
Clinton, China haven't narrowed gaps on Syria, sea

I wouldn't make a bet on it Ron - more chance of a land grab by the Chinese for Siberia and the Far east for it's resources....

Russia: The World's Largest Dying Empire

Motherless Russia - Muslims and Chinese Vie For Huge Assets of Dying Nation

Interesting links ORAC.

Most of my Chinese and Russian friends seem to see the importance of their mutual relationship, they view each other as the most reliable of allies. Think the term ''Russia is our brother'' was used! Considering how bad things between them were a few decades back its amazing. But then again look at Vietnam and the USA!

My friends though are a cross selection of civilians and in no way linked to the governments. With the Chinese people I find a general dislike of the government in that they view them as to weak, especially on the Japan issue! In this respect the current Chinese government are a voice of moderation. IF hardliners took over then who knows what will happen.

I think in some ways a very vocal US has driven Russia and China much closer together. They would be fools to allow themselves to ever end up at war, a closer relationship is in the interests of both nations. I don't think either would make that mistake though, their leaderships are probably the most capable governments on the planet. Together they are very powerful indeed. If governments or leaders change however then who knows!

You know, reading all that, I cant help but feel that we'd be a hell of a lot safer if we had SHAR available to send over there and give those naughty foreigners what for... :E

The whole area seems to be in a frenzy....

China deploys two warships after Tokyo announces disputed island purchase

Beagle quoted; I operated out of Wenzhou at the end of the nineties. It was to an exploration rig some 125 miles offshore. It was effectively equadistant from China, Taiwan and the Diaoyu Islands. Initial seismic results had promised another Aberdeen but the drilling in this case was unsuccessful. It is still going on but the advances in that area has been gas somewhat further north. However the Chinese are patient and history has proven that the first attempts at oil discovery are not neccessarily successful.

Our biggest problem was that the rig was at the junction of the Chinese and Taiwanese ADIZs. We would keep at 200ft for the last 30 miles on the way in and vise versa so that we weren't disturbed by Su27s or F16s.

Wenzhou had a long history with Jesuit missionaries and as a result it is famous for the beauty of its women. They were right; absolute stunners, every one of them.

Thanks for posting the link, very interesting.

I also noted this:-
Mystery over whereabouts of China's leader-in-waiting Xi Jinping - Telegraph

Thanks to Mao's (and later leaders') one child policy and (like the Indians), the Chinese preference for sons, there are about 25 million more males in their early 20s in China today than females. This has the potential for a social time bomb. I hope the Chinese leadership doesn't think a good long term regional war might help employ, (cull?) and distract all those extra young males.

I know quite a few Chinese who think that China is bounded by ethnic origins.
They look forward to the day that Singapore becomes part of China.

If you asked them to find it and get there they'd be involved in a multi vehicle pile up before they'd got 10 minutes out of Guangzhou.

And now the Philippines!!!!

AW&ST: Tension Between Philippines And China Grows

US to set up command post facing South China Sea?

I had to laugh at the AW&ST article. It started off by saying that China would teach the Phillipines a lesson like it did to North Vietnam.
The PLA had its nose rubbed in the mud by the Vietnamese.

Some more piccies on Xinhua.

Editor's choice: China's military drills - Xinhua | English.news.cn

Japanese Companies Close Facilities in China as Tensions Rise

China-Japan Dispute Over Islands Risks $340 Billion Trade

US wades into China-Japan island dispute with missile defense deal

I hope they haven't wrecked my favourite teppanyaki restaurant in Shekou. The steak there is fantastic.

The Chinese are neurotic about their borders; it's a hangover from their perceived injustices by the western nations in the 19th century. They can rattle on about the written proof that they were wherever it was 1,500 years ago because then the Chinese were the big traders in the Far East. However, those events have been overtaken by history and this is something that Beijing is unwilling to grasp.

They are not going to annoy the Japanese too much; there is too much trade involved and certainly not the Americans, who are their 2nd largest market after the EU.

The usual shock, horror, thousands demonstrating in the street. TV running film of the Nanking Massacre where you see young women being dragged off by Japanese soldiers and rows of decapitated bodies. You could get the same thousands into a Chinese shopping mall without being crowded.
Most of them would not have a clue where Diaoyu Islands are and those who looked at a map would not notice the undisputed Japanese islands some 80 miles away. It's all happened before and will happen again.

The leadership in China is going to change soon. This will be forgotten for now.

Telegraph: China, Japan and the world’s Agadir Crisis (1911)

The Corner: How Close are Japan and China to War?

Commentary: The Coming Global Disorder

I do not know why they are bleating about the Paracel Islands for? It is, and always has been, a part of China. This fact has been recognised in the past by Germany, France, the UK, the USA and Japan.

Vietnams interest stems from the fact that when the French ran Viet Nam they invaded The Paracel Islands. The Japanese kicked them out during their advance in 1942 even they were not at war with Vichy France. They were surrendered back to China after the war which is the Taiwanese claim for them but by then the Communists had taken over them as part of the civil war. That is the basis of the Peoples Republic's claim.

The Vietnamese had a go at getting them again and were repelled quite easily. It led to a very embarrassed American adviser doing the walk from China to Hong Kong over the Lo Wu bridge.

Try Google Earthing Woody Island Paracel Islands and you will be left in no doubt about who owns it.

New chinese Carrier in service today
 

China's first aircraft carrier has entered into service, the Defence Ministry says. The 300m (990ft) Liaoning - named after the province where it was refitted - is a refurbished Soviet ship purchased from Ukraine.

For now the carrier has no operational aircraft and will be used for training.

But China says the vessel, which has undergone extensive sea trials, will increase its capacity to defend state interests.

But China's new carrier is more a symbol of a future capability than a potent naval threat itself. Getting into the carrier business takes time; a whole range of skills has to be learnt; and carriers have to operate with other ships, requiring a new mindset across the navy as a whole. It could be a steep learning curve, but China is moving ahead steadily, taking the first steps on the path to having a fully-fledged carrier force.


It also comes weeks ahead of a party congress expected to see the transition of power to a new generation of Chinese leaders.

The Liaoning was formally handed over to the navy at a ceremony attended by top Chinese leaders at Dalian Port, state-run Xinhua news agency said.

"Having the aircraft carrier enter the ranks will be of important significance in raising the overall fighting capacity of our nation's navy to a modern level," China's Defence Ministry said in a statement.

The vessel will "increase [China's] capacity to defend, develop its capacity to co-operate on the high seas in dealing with non-traditional security threats and will be effective in defending the interests of state sovereignty, security and development", it added.

The Liaoning, formerly known as the Varyag, was constructed in the 1980s for the Soviet navy but was never completed.

When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the Varyag sat in Ukraine's dockyards. A Chinese company with links to China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) bought the ship just as Soviet warships were being cut for scrap. It said it wanted to turn the Varyag into a floating casino in Macau and in 2001 the ship was towed to China.

The Chinese military confirmed in June 2011 that it was being refitted to serve as the nation's first aircraft carrier.

Analysts say it will take years to outfit the carrier with aircraft and make it fully operational. But Chinese officials say that the Liaoning advances the country's military modernisation.

"The development of aircraft carriers is an important part of China's national defence modernisation, in particular its naval forces, and this aircraft carrier is an essential stepping stone toward its own more advanced aircraft carriers in the future," China's Rear Admiral Yang Yi wrote in state-run China Daily newspaper.

The carrier will be mostly used "for scientific research and training missions" so China could build "a more advanced aircraft carrier platform in the future", he added.

Regarding the ongoing island dispute:-
Taiwan, Japan fire water cannon in disputed island controversy | Fox News

It's like the Cod War all over again, except it's oil.

Follow Hillery Clinton :rolleyes:, The bitch on wheels, Every where she goes all he11 is let loose.:eek: been watching this from day one. It will get hot mid november just for the lap dogs master (Obama):= It's Chinas land,:D

China has published a white paper outlining their claim to the Diaoyu Islands. It's a long and interesting read, available by courtesy of Xinhuanet.

Full Text: Diaoyu Dao, an Inherent Territory of China - Xinhua | English.news.cn

well it would wouldn't it?

These sort of claims can only be sorted out by negotiation between the parties or with a reference to the Hague and the sooner they start talking the better

It seems to me that while the USA held overwhelming carrier group force, they could easily deploy carrier groups for willy-waving "gunboat diplomacy" purposes. Once the carrier group becomes the international symbol of naval strngth and an arms race in carrier groups takes place, we have the same situation as when the Royal Navy was faced with the battleship arms race at the beginning of the 20th century. In the event, the battleship found itself outmoded and superseded by the carrier and the Royal Navy has declined from being the undisputed ruler of the waves to relative insignificance in the global order.

I can't help feeling that in the age of the cruise missile, the carrier may be about to go the way of the battleship. Hell, even the Brunei navy can sink an aircraft carrier, or the whole carrier group if they felt like sending all their boats out - as long as their opponent wasn't expecting it. I'm a short-arse myself and learned early in my school career that the best way to deal with big boy bullies was to go directly for their goolies while they were still talking tough (think Pearl Harbour). :rolleyes:

Blacksheep, good points on capital ships and their "day in the sun."

I'll suggest to you that torpedoes remain a simpler way to sink a carrier than cruise missiles. The concession I'll make to the cruise missile approach is the concept of the saturation raid: quantity does indeed have a quality all its own ... if you can keep one's own guidance methods from interfering with one another as the attacking party.

Mines and torpedoes operate under the premise that

It is easier to sink a ship by letting water in from the bottom (torpedo) than it is to do so by trying to let the air out from the top (bomb/missile). :E