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-   -   The South China Sea's Gathering Storm (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/493498-south-china-seas-gathering-storm.html)

Lonewolf_50 13th Jul 2016 15:02


Originally Posted by PingDit (Post 9438593)
A senior Chinese official has said China has the right to set up an air defence zone over territory it claims in the South China Sea.
The statement from Vice-Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin comes a day after an international tribunal said there was no legal basis for China's claims.

South China Sea: China 'has right to set up air defence zone' - BBC News

(As anticipated then...)

They are free to burn the gas and wear themselves out with their ADIZ. Might be good training for their pilots.

Given the number of times I got intercepted by our own USAF (1) and how many times helicopters on our wing got intercepted by our own USAF (dozens) while doing standard ship board ops training while in the ADIZ (the usual question was "was your parrot working properly in all modes?") I wish them well and hope they fly intercepts on all Com Air over the south china sea. Good fun. Something for the pilots to do. Also, it will offer something for the bored passengers to gawk at if their iPads run out of batteries:
"Look, Mummy, a Chinese Fighter jet!"
"Get a picture with your phone, dear, so that we can show Daddy."

Chugalug2 13th Jul 2016 16:14

HH:-

I just don't understand what point RR is trying to make...that Japanese soldiers committed atrocities? Does anyone on here really believe that any country has clean hands over war time atrocities?? Or peace time ones as well
Well, I guess it all depends on what you call atrocities. The main "atrocity" levelled at the UK, and in particular the RAF, is of course Dresden. Why one bombing of one city should be picked out from all the other bombings of all the other cities mystifies me, so let's call all the bombings of all the cities "atrocities". Indeed, let's agree that all war is an atrocity. In which case I would still contend that an army on the rampage; murdering, torturing and raping civilians and POW's alike, needs a special term for its conduct. So let's instead call that an atrocity, and the bombing of cities war.

What RR's point is he must say. My point is that the Japanese Emperor, his Government, nor his people have ever disowned the barbarities carried out by the Imperial Japanese Army in the 1930s and 40s. That contrasts sharply with the atonement of Germany, and makes me fearful of a revitalised Japan that elevates its "self defence" up by several notches.

None of the above implies any less worry about the threat from China, indeed it simply adds to it...

ORAC 25th Jul 2016 11:22

Well this is certainly going to add to their capabilities in the region......



Seaplane Could Advance Chinese SCS Claims

Stanwell 25th Jul 2016 13:43

Yes, China does worry me a bit.
As had been mentioned before, its strategic tentacles have been slowly unravelling and grasping.

Just one small example would be the acquisition of key infrastructure assets within Australia.
A little while back, it was granted a 99-year lease on the port of Darwin.
But that's OK - because the Australian and US Navies will still be allowed to use the Port facilities.

Further, they now have control of the Port of Newcastle, NSW and are closing a deal on the Port of Melbourne.
Hello?
Do we have people asleep at the wheel - or is something going on that I really shouldn't worry my pretty little head about?

Lonewolf_50 25th Jul 2016 14:27


Originally Posted by Stanwell (Post 9451441)
Do we have people asleep at the wheel - or is something going on that I really shouldn't worry my pretty little head about?

Asleep at the wheel. Our sell out began in the late 80's / early 90's when the restrictions on Chicom access to our universities were relaxed. "The money was too good" and the notable illustration of Chinese money men with Bill Clinton in the White House is a trend that has not changed.

Heathrow Harry 26th Jul 2016 08:16

Stanwell - unless you believe that the PLA are going to hide several divisions of infantry inside a quayside go-down in Darwin, Newcastle etc etc does it matter who OWNS the port?

The Australian police can occupy them given 10 minutes notice...

In fact you are using THEIR money to upgrade YOUR ports - which is better than them spending their cash on more missiles etc

ORAC 10th Aug 2016 09:51

Photos suggest China built reinforced hangars on disputed islands: CSIS

East China Sea: Japan Spots Chinese Radar on Gas Exploration Platform

Vietnam moves new rocket launchers into disputed S.China Sea

China on ‘combat patrols’ near disputed islands

https://tse4.mm.bing.net/th?id=HS.28...=0&w=231&h=179

https://tse4.mm.bing.net/th?id=HS.14...=0&w=254&h=179

https://tse4.mm.bing.net/th?id=HS.14...=0&w=229&h=168

https://tse4.mm.bing.net/th?id=HS.28...=0&w=297&h=168

https://tse1.mm.bing.net/th?id=HS.79...=0&w=301&h=170

https://tse1.mm.bing.net/th?id=HS.79...=0&w=301&h=170

tartare 10th Aug 2016 09:59

None of us should worry.
Because the greatest goddam nation on the face of this earth could nuke them to a pane of glass and finish them off with windex in a second if it wanted to.
Why don't I feel secure...:ooh:

Fareastdriver 10th Aug 2016 10:39

Eleven gas production platforms built in two years and people wonder what China is claiming the sea bed for.

http://www.mofa.go.jp/files/00009943...ampaign=buffer

Lonewolf_50 10th Aug 2016 12:54


Originally Posted by tartare (Post 9469027)
Because the greatest goddam nation on the face of this earth could nuke them to a pane of glass and finish them off with windex in a second if it wanted to.

Where did this rant come from? Where do you get the idea that US policy toward China is to nuke them over a local dispute? Have you been reading leftist propaganda again?

SARF 10th Aug 2016 21:05

Not the uks problem.. Let the new big boys slug it out in ww3 on the other side of the planet. Post suez it's not our problem any more.. We can make a mint selling new carriers to India etc. Then Join in once we know who is going to win....

tartare 10th Aug 2016 22:31

I was being ironic Lone... I'm actually a great fan of your country.
My point was that despite it's overwhelming military superiority, the US is effectively powerless in the face of salami slicing by the Chinese.
And - just to clarify - I wouldn't classify myself as left by any means.

Lonewolf_50 11th Aug 2016 03:19

@tartare
Sorry, I missed the irony/sarcasm. The text medium doesn't always get tone across.

Military is but one of many tools used by those in the seats of power. To say the US is "powerless" is not correct, but two things arise from that observation:

1. The SCS is China's "backyard"
2. Having the wit to use other means of power or suasion is highly dependent upon the people in office at the time. Over the past 25 years, our "policy" in re the SCS has been subject to some interesting variations. All of a sudden, the rest of America has woken up to something I was concerned with, professionally, in the early 90's.

Nukes give a deterrent effect, not a carte blanche. Ya still have to do the hard work on the ground if you really want to change things.

tartare 11th Aug 2016 04:00

Agree with you 100 per cent.
I think the really challenging issue for Uncle Sam is at what point does a hyper-power say "no - actually China, that's a slice too far..." and then how do you respond.
It's China's backyard - but just across the fence from the quarter acre, suburnt paradise that is Orstraylia....

Stanwell 11th Aug 2016 04:19

Thank you, tartare.
A couple of us down here HAD noticed.

tartare 11th Aug 2016 05:57

I think it's actually very worrying.
All it's going to take is some clown in a J-8 to buzz a RAAF Orion, or a P-8; get caught in a tip vortex and next thing you've got a mid-air and Hainan Island all over again.
Or Vietnam gets the sh1ts with some fishermen and squeezes off one of those new missiles.
An all out war might not be in China or the US's interest, but a very nasty little regional confrontation might just be a slightly bigger slice of the salami that Beijing may think it can get away with.

Fareastdriver 11th Aug 2016 14:34

It's very much like a Chinese work contract. They keep chipping away at it until you walk out of the door and then they call you in and start again from the beginning.

ORAC 15th Aug 2016 05:17

Report: China May Cross Obama?s ?Red Line, Reclaim Scarborough Shoal Next Month

"......The People’s Republic of China may soon look to fundamentally alter the status-quo in the South China Sea by seizing the disputed Scarborough Shoal within the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the Philippines – a move that Washington considers a "red line" with President Obama warning of "serious consequences" in March if China attempted to reclaim the land.

An article in Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post raises the specter of the potential incursion quoting "a source familiar with the matter" detailing that Beijing would not look to reclaim the territory before hosting the G-20 next month, but could begin construction efforts on the land mass sometime between September and when Americans go to the polls in November.

The source suggests that Beijing may look to take advantage of the domestic distractions put on President Obama during the political season. "Obama will focus on domestic issues ahead of the election as he needs to pass down legacies before leaving office," said the source. "That might make him busy and he might not have the time to take care of regional security issues........."

Heathrow Harry 15th Aug 2016 09:30

The answer is to plonk a battalion of US marines on it right now and claim they're taking their R&R break - issue them with hawaian shirts etc etc

FODPlod 15th Aug 2016 10:53


Originally Posted by Heathrow Harry (Post 9474146)
The answer is to plonk a battalion of US marines on it right now and claim they're taking their R&R break - issue them with hawaian shirts etc etc

Why not call them scrap metal workmen?

tartare 16th Aug 2016 05:50

There you go.
Just one more tiny sliver of a slice while those Yankee Imperialists are distracted.
Take just enough to avoid directly threatening or angering them.

ORAC 22nd Aug 2016 16:38

South China Sea Time Bomb: Beijing Sets "Red Line" on Japan-US Joint Operations

On Saturday, diplomatic sources confirmed that China had issued a severe warning to Tokyo in late June demanding that Japan refrain from dispatching Self-Defense Forces to join US operations testing the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.

Japan will “cross a red line” if SDF vessels take part in the freedom of navigation operations, Chinese Ambassador Cheng Yonghua conveyed to Tokyo at the time. Cheng threatened military action if Japan failed to comply with the ultimatum.

The warning came two weeks prior to The Hague international arbitration court’s adverse ruling deeming the waters and territory that the Chinese people had historically viewed as their own were to be stripped of their control and that Beijing must immediately remove itself from the disputed territory. China immediately denounced the ruling, on both substantive and procedural grounds, vowing not to comply with the court’s ruling....... Beijing has become irate over international pressure calling for it to comply with the court order in the name of international law, which China views the ruling itself violates, coming predominantly from regional competitors Japan and Australia as well as from the United States.

Those tensions risk spilling over with a Chinese state-run newspaper already issuing a warning to Australia that it would be the "ideal target for a strike" and repeated warnings to Japan to avoid intervening. Further complicating tensions, Reuters misreported that Vietnam had installed rocket launchers pointing at Chinese military assets over the territorial dispute leading China’s press to caution Hanoi to remember the consequence of the last-time the two countries went to war in 1979.

While Tokyo continues to assert pressure on Beijing over the arbitration ruling, despite not itself being a party to the dispute, a Japan Times editorial left unsigned sought to offer reassurance saying that "the Japanese government has no plans to join the freedom of navigation operations, in which the United States since October has sent warships near artificial islands that China has built in the South China Sea."

The statement of measured and reserve action comes after revelations that Chinese Ambassador Cheng Yonghua told Japan explicitly not to take part in "joint military actions with the US forces that is aimed at excluding China in the South China Sea" and stating that China "will not concede on sovereignty issues and is not afraid of military provocations.".............

tartare 22nd Aug 2016 23:15

Remember someone once from US State Dept saying that dealing with the Chinese when they are angry was a bit like a Peking Opera... lots of screaming, shouting and threats, but not much more.
The threat to strike Australia is a bit ridiculous - with Pine Gap and half of the US defence industry having branch offices here, it'd be tantamount to an attack on the US itself.
But what about the smaller nations?
Sooner or later we're going to reach `call your bluff' point in this dispute.
Face will be lost, and what happens then?
Short, sharp ugly little scrap between some South East Asian claimant and China?

Stanwell 23rd Aug 2016 01:21

I liked your "Peking Opera" analogy there, tartare.
The phrases "severe warning" to Japan and "Beijing has become irate" and, to top it off,
Australia as "an ideal target" confirm that.
And we thought the North Koreans were silly.
I hope they pull their heads in soon.

ORAC 23rd Aug 2016 05:56

Just to add to the growing furore in the region, yet another possible flash point.

South Korea's Park Geun-hye: 'Serious cracks' in North Korean regime - UPI.com

SEOUL, Aug. 22 (UPI) -- South Korean President Park Geun-hye suggested regime change in North Korea is close at hand, the same day Pyongyang condemned the commencement of large-scale joint military exercises. Speaking during a national security council meeting for the Ulchi Freedom Guardian exercises, Park said "serious cracks" are emerging in the Pyongyang government, and the possibility the system would be "shaken" is increasing, Yonhap reported.

The president's remarks come a week after she described unification as an opportunity for "all North Koreans and North Korean officials," during a speech marking the 71st anniversary of Korean independence from Japanese colonial rule. Park did not include Kim Jong Un in her speech, a move that is aiming to isolate the top leadership, according to a South Korean analyst. On Monday Park said, "Even the North Korean elite class is recently showing signs of collapse, and some of North Korea's key officials are defecting or seeking asylum abroad, signs that there is a possibility the system is shaking."

A South Korean official who spoke to Yonhap on the condition of anonymity said the president is looking at the bigger picture, which includes difficulties for the regime under international sanctions, increasing public opposition to Pyongyang's mass mobilization movements and the defection of elites........

On_The_Top_Bunk 23rd Aug 2016 23:50

For anyone interested in the DPRK then Reddit has a good forum.
https://www.reddit.com/r/NorthKoreaNews

ORAC 27th Sep 2016 12:23

Follow up to post #102...

China flies military planes over strait near Japan

China has sent fighter planes for the first time over a strait near Japan, the two governments said Monday, after Tokyo announced it may patrol alongside the US in the disputed South China Sea.

More than 40 Chinese military aircraft on Sunday traversed the Miyako Strait between Japan's Miyako and Okinawa Islands, to carry out training in the West Pacific, according to a statement on China's defence ministry website. The Sukhoi Su-30 fighters, bombers and refuelling aircraft did not violate Japanese airspace. Japan's defence ministry said it was the first time Chinese fighters had passed over the strait. The drill is aimed at "testing far sea combat capabilities", the Chinese statement said. It follows China's first military flight, carried out by spy planes, over the Miyako Strait last year.

The move comes after Japanese Defence Minister Tomomi Inada said earlier this month that Tokyo would increase its engagement in the South China Sea through joint training cruises with the US Navy, exercises with regional navies and capacity-building assistance to coastal nations. Beijing asserts sovereignty over almost all of the South China Sea, dismissing rival partial claims from its Southeast Asian neighbours. It rejects any intervention by Japan in the waterway.

In recent months Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has criticised China for rejecting a July ruling by an international tribunal, which said Beijing's extensive claims to the waters had no legal basis. Tokyo, a key US ally, is also strengthening defence ties with other countries in the disputed region. Japan and China are already at loggerheads over a longstanding territorial row in the East China Sea. That dispute relates to uninhabited islets controlled by Japan known as the Senkakus in Japanese and the Diaoyus in Chinese.

Abe said on Monday Japan would "never tolerate attempts to unilaterally change the status quo" in the disputed waters, or "wherever else in the world", in an apparent response to the Chinese move. "We pledge to protect Japan's territory, and in the sea and air," he said in a speech to open a new parliamentary session. Japan and China "share a mutual understanding that we're significantly responsible for regional peace and prosperity", he added.

In its statement the Chinese defence ministry said it had also mobilised an unspecified number of bombers and fighters to patrol the East China Sea Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ). Beijing sparked alarm after it unilaterally established the ADIZ in 2013. It demanded all aircraft submit flight plans when traversing the zone, which covers the islands disputed with Tokyo and also claimed by Taipei.

"Normalising far sea drills out in the West Pacific and patrols in the East China Sea ADIZ is based on the need for China's Air Force to protect national sovereignty and security and ensure peaceful development," air force spokesperson Shen Jinke said in the statement. The Chinese military has been monitoring and identifying foreign military planes that entered the ADIZ and "took measures according to different air threats" since it was set up three years ago, the statement added.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/files/2...ako-Strait.jpg

Fareastdriver 27th Sep 2016 14:03

Don't worry about it. It's no difference between Russian aircraft flying the Rockall Gap. China and Japan have their own domestic problems; this is just a sideshow.

ORAC 16th Oct 2016 13:22

The Philippines Is About to Give Up the South China Sea to China - Defense One

A_Van 16th Oct 2016 14:02

And who was feeding the dragon for decades? Who outsourced a huge part of manufacturing to China supporting its near two-digit economic growth for some 30 years? US and EU....

fltlt 19th Oct 2016 03:22


Originally Posted by A_Van (Post 9542791)
And who was feeding the dragon for decades? Who outsourced a huge part of manufacturing to China supporting its near two-digit economic growth for some 30 years? US and EU....

The WalMart effect.

Fareastdriver 19th Oct 2016 10:24

I met a bloke in Shenzhen once. He ran, as had his father before him, a plastics moulding company producing plastic bits for motor vehicles; bumper, grill surrounds etc. He had supplied, at a reasonable cost, components for British motor manufacturers for years but he was now going to go out of business.

The reason was that the new Eastern European companies springing up with EU subsidies could easily undercut him and under EU rules the manufacturers were not permitted to choose their supplier on a national basis.

So he had come to China with samples of his products to try and save his business. He had been directed to a Chinese company that produced the same items as he and they had done test mouldings of his products to perfection. So the deal was struck. They would produce the items that would arrive in the UK at a price cheaper than the Europeans could manage; his factory would then become a packing and distribution centre and 90% of his employees would keep a job.

Just This Once... 19th Oct 2016 11:28


Originally Posted by A_Van (Post 9542791)
And who was feeding the dragon for decades? Who outsourced a huge part of manufacturing to China supporting its near two-digit economic growth for some 30 years? US and EU....

I guess iPhones are more terrifying than all those fighters, missiles and bombs that others prefer to sell to China.

Heathrow Harry 19th Oct 2016 11:35

Let's be honest - if China opened a competition to provide a new fighter you wouldn't be able to move in Beijing because of BAe, Dassault, Saab, Boeing & LM sales people..................

Just This Once... 19th Oct 2016 14:05

I don't think that is being honest at all. China would gladly purchase military equipment from companies such as those you list, but are prevented from doing so by the national governments that host said companies.

http://www.dw.com/en/why-russia-need...ons/a-18870472

Heathrow Harry 19th Oct 2016 14:15

Hmmm - not sure - if they wanted to buy lots and lots of shiny new aeroplanes things might change ...after all - other than the F-35 & the F-22 they're all pretty old designs no?

racedo 19th Oct 2016 14:46


Seems like a realist who figures he gets more for his country long term doing this than shedding blood to appease someone else.

Heathrow Harry 19th Oct 2016 14:59

Like all peripheral countries - they contract when the Big Boy in the area is strong and then expand when they are weak

racedo 19th Oct 2016 15:04


Like all peripheral countries - they contract when the Big Boy in the area is strong and then expand when they are weak
Friendly neighbour is better.

West Coast 19th Oct 2016 15:46

Its one thing to be denied productive fishing grounds at the end of a rifle, voluntarily cede them and I'll be curious to see how long he stays in office. The Philipinos I know are a very proud lot.


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