PVRs started.....
 

3 Tri-Star pilots have Pvr'd and several Herc guys too.

C-17 guys have quite clearly had enough given the constant tasking.

Many Vc10 mates have spent around 6 weeks 'not on Det' this year to date.

And more cuts yet to happen.

At least there is end in sight in Afghanistan and Libya.....:=

The exodus begins!!

They are the clever ones. Getting out before the rush.

I predict that within 18 months there will be a manning crisis within all three services. Not bums on seats but a complete vacuum of anyone with any experience or competence. All well and good recruiting pilots but if you have no QFIs......................add/delete/annotate for service/trade/arm.

From a manning perspective, it's the perfect storm.

Many are being thrashed to death and don't have time to consider the bigger picture about careers, pensions etc and are fed up of wives, children and loved ones wondering who the strange man trudging in through the front door every few weeks is.

Those that aren't being thrashed quite so hard and do have a shred of spare capacity to consider the broader implications of current life in the services don't like what they see. Political indifference and mouth music, cuts cuts and more cuts (and that's when we're at war .... what will happen whe we are not?) pensions being trashed, potentially significant tax bills if you some how get promotion and the prospect of rejoining the thrashing once their 'respite tout is over.

It's hard to see how we are going to stop this one; not so much a service on the buffet to be sorted with a timely stall recovery, I think the wings are about to fall off.

There will be alot more to come when they have finished with the redundancies fiasco. Many are waiting to see if they can go with the additional cash buffer and are busy organising their lives to go. If that option isn't available, then they will go anyway.

I remember back in the 80s when Thatcher had to give us a 15% pay rise to retain/recruit. I can see that coming again in the nest few years when they realise what they have done to the forces morale and desire to stay in the job.

Heard it all before guys!

It's just the perpetual sine wave, ebbing and flowing. Manning want you to leave, they're trying to reduce numbers.

Yep, it may be the case in 2 or 3 years there are a shortfall of skills, but then there will be FRIs or people who have left will realise that life is not so rosy on the other side and perhaps rejoin. Ebb and Flow, comes and gos.

If you can't take a joke you shouldn't have signed up....

Good luck to all those chosing greener fields.

Maybe, but I'll bet you 50p nobody has got as far as the 'how to turn off the exodus' plan. The difference I can see from years gone by is I don't think money alone is the fix - nor the push factor - it's quality of life which has been the erroded left, right and centre and that's a complicated and subjective mixture that beancounters have never been able to measure and will find very hard to repair.

Cheers! :ok:

Dallas/VinRouge - spot on.

Quality of life has long gone and watching loved ones try to accept that you are forever walking out the door for another unknown period of time has become unbearable.

David Cameron is completely out of touch with the ability of our minimal Armed Forces and he can no longer rely on guys 'giving their all and getting the job done' which has got us through recent years.

I guess those that have had enough will foxtrot oscar...I have my doubts that it will become a deluge, but lets not bicker over it.

However..for those pilots that are going because of quality of life issues have a pop over to the Terms and Conditions forum and/or the Wannabees Forum. It makes for pretty grim reading.

Maybe you leave the mob but do something other than fly for a living...just a thought.

For those that are not pilots...please make sure you have developed some marketable skills sets for when you pull the handle. Unemployment may seem stable at the moment but that is primarily because of the massive increase in part time and minimum wage jobs...decent, well paid jobs are very few and far between.

Quality of life will really suck when your ATM card gets spit out with nae money.....

Or in your case melchett a pen lid. Will you manage to get a job outside? Is there a demand right now for typists?

Former Colleagues,

May I pass on some cheery thoughts in these gloomy times?

BA are recruiting allbeit type rated and BA managed path for the minute.
Virgin are recruiting allbeit a trickle at the moment.
Cathay are recruiting.
Emirates are recruiting.
Jet2 are soon to be recruiting.
Easyjet are allegedly recruiting SFO's soon (Employment Fair banter Cranwell).
Thomson are asking for internal volunteers to set up their recruiting team with an eye to next year.

Worldwide there is a pilot shortage across the Middle East, India, China and the demographics indicate the States are to follow, Delta supposedly have 7000 retiring next year.

For all of you choosing or being forced to leave the indications are that there will be jobs for you in the civil sector.

For all of you staying I hope you will get the aircraft you need and the support you deserve from a Government asking you to perform in the finest traditions of a great Service in increasingly difficult times.

Good luck to you all.

Not that I can type very well, but that's not such an issue when I have people to do my typing for me. However, I suspect that I'll somehow manage to muddle through Really.

Might have to cut down to one bottle of Pol Roger a day though, but needs must when times are tight.

What are you plans Really? I hear things are still quite peachy in the Girl Guides - must explain your sunny disposition and positive outlook on life compared to the reality of life on the ops side of the RAF

I guess it must be tough for you in your air conditioned portakabin flicking elastic bands at your typist all day.

I suppose the real litmus test will come next year when the "pay freeze" is lifted....lets see what happens then?

I remember my father serving in the RAF in the late 70's and getting a massive pay rise when Maggie came into power. Apart from a bit of NI SH action things were fairly quiet......what on earth can you do when everyone is ballbagged from Ops in 2 then 1 theatres for the last 8 years!? No money will solve that!

Anyway, what is the shortest time you can leave the service from a flying job at the moment?

Regards

Ralph

Nah, surely the last guy left who gets to be a Fg Off Chief of the Air Staff wins hands down!:D:D

I think the rush has been noticed - hence the rumours of 18-month PVR times now as an initial way to buy time before manning can find another finger to stick in the dyke (oo-er :p)

TOFO's scary talk is just scary talk.
Many people who leave the services (whatever trade or rank) have a really good set of transferable skills topped by a good work ethic and the stable platform of an ability to turn up to work even when their toes have an annoying itch.

Okay, I left with some CAA A&C Licences, but I never really needed them, moving into management and consultancy quite soon after leaving. I left as a Sgt Rigga. I have no management qualifications and no specialist qualifications yet here I am running my own dept and plans affecting up to 200 engineers and a lot of aircraft.

Remember that its not what you did in the Services that counts towards a lot of jobs - its what you bring to the job that counts.

I think the PM's comments today were disgraceful, and just shows the contempt in which the government hold the armed forces :mad:.. I left the RAF a couple of months ago, I cannot think of any reason I would ever rejoin, and most of the people I worked with are looking for a way out, from LAC to officers.

I saw this sine wave a couple of times in the USAF. Ironically when the AF was trying to get rid of guys the airlines were usually hiring. The good news for the guys that stay is that life can get much better in a hurry when the powers that be finally realize that they don't have enough people to run the show.

ralphmalph,

Reference

"I suppose the real litmus test will come next year when the "pay freeze" is lifted....lets see what happens then?"

It's a two year pay free, so the next pay increase will be in April 2013!



Rick777

Unfortunately in the RAF when they realise they have not got enough people they just throw money at selected individuals to stay in. Changes in terms and conditions take too long to impliment, probably have to be put in place across multiple trades, and cost money, and the organization is now too lean to provide rest tours for individuals..... No postings to Hawaii for us :{

PVRs?
 

Anyone got any more actual figures of how many are walking? or is it just a lot of people talking about it.

Its not the numbers that are the problem perse. Its the experience levels that will be the problem. The last generation of pilots that have done stuff outside of Herrick and Telic are queueing for the exits.

Its going to be interesting to see how the levels of experience dilution we are seeing are going to be dealt with. Oh, and its not just an issue for the pilot fraternity. The engineering world is pretty threadders with their lot with some of the obscene sums of money on offer globally for less responsibility.

Look on the bright side, it might ease some of the married quater issues mentioned elsewhere for Brize :suspect:

The political objective is disarmament. The US President has committed to a set withdrawal date for Afghanistan and when the Yanks leave, we'll have to leave too. With no wars on the go we won't be needing many boots, so the "defence" of the nation will rest on those few who happen to remain after some more massive redundancies - who by definition will be just enough to man Horse Guards Parade on the Queen's birthday and fly three old WW2 aircraft over Buckingham Palace. :rolleyes:

I know of at least 5 PVRs from the airbase formerly known as Lyneham and at least one taking their 12 year option.

Hopefully there will be a 12 year option FRI soon, to give another 5 years service like there has been in the past.....

Thing is, if you do the sums, its not financially worth it (other than to seriously dent the mortgage).

Every sum I do comes to the same conclusion; if you are deciding based solely on money, walking after your 6 year ROS is the only way. Every year delayed is a years captaincy pay with the airlines toward the end of your career that you are cheating yourself of.

Which means they are going to have to do something a lot more difficult than throwing cash at the problem. They are going to have to make individuals actually want to stay.

VinRouge:
Know what you mean VR, but would prefer to substitute the word "Seniority" for "Captaincy Pay". A subtly different but all important concept. Seniority rules all in the Airlines. From your point of view it amounts to even greater urgency. Every day delayed is a day's seniority less. A single day lost could cost you years of "Captaincy Pay"!

Oh, its not my point of view. But unless something changes, and soon, its going to become my, and others view imho.

17 Pilot and Crewman PVRs at Odiham........the flood gates are opening! On the flip side, Frenchie has written a nice little book about what the Chinny Force get up to in AFG, tres readable.

:cool:

Given that the post-SDSR briefs all had the number of pilots at circa 100% manning come 2015 it looks as though the RAF will need to start a recruitment drive pretty damn soon.

Playing the Devil's Advocate card:
If those who are left don't have as much experience as those who have just left, then they soon will.

I thought there used to be complaints about lack of flying hours, due to fuel/ secondary costs etc. Now there are complaints about too many.

Tangent wave anyone?

Depends what you want experience in really doesn't it. There's a big difference between 2000 hours or 1 hour flown 2000 times.

Airline pilot shortage facing UK, union Balpa warns - 4 Nov 10

This is about 6 months old, but I'm told that the only real change is to this extract:

I understand that, for the next few years, that figure should be far higher!

Chugalug2, seniority rules in most but not all airlines. Jet2 promote on merit, if you have the hours you will be boarded and those who are deemed most suitable are selected for Command Trg.

Minor thread creep as your point is well made for most airline outfits.

My understanding of all this is, that there is indeed a respectable amount of money spent on defence by comparison. What I find difficult to grasp is, where does it all go now? When I left in 1990, we still got 4 travel warrants a year, we had nearly four times the number of combat aircraft and it was also the era of accommodation renovation throughout the R.A.F Add to this the comparative size of the other two services and the cost of running all this, it is of some curiosity to me that we can spend as much as we do and have so little in the way of people and assets. Especially when so much is no longer provided for out of the defence budget. I understand thegreater amount of spending on defence in 1990, but it wasn't that much greater. From 1990-1994 average UK defence expenditure was 3.8% of GDP. IN 2008-2009 it was 2.5%.

To put matters further in pespective, the figures from the Commons Library say that defence expenditure for 2008/9 was £36,400,000,000. At 2008/9 prices, the hard cash amount spent in 1989/90 was no more than £36,000,000,000. The actual amount spent at 1989/90 was; £20,800,000,000.

I'm truly puzzled, unless of course, the 2008/9 figure includes the capital spending on Iraq, Afghanistan etc!?:confused:

FB:)

Not thread creep at all, jpboy, but vital info for those poised to fly the nest. Personally I PVR'd so long ago that scarcely anything that pertained then does so now, I fear. I do remember the big culture shock of "civvy street" and the brutal logic of the seniority system. Kudos to Jet2 for being different, though I risk the damnation of the brotherhood for saying so!
As to forecast pilot shortages, LFFC, exactly the same was stated when I left. Then the 6 day Arab/Israeli war happened! Luckily I had just clambered aboard Dan-Air, who promptly pulled up the the drawbridge behind me. Which brings us to the most important qualification of all, luck! You can plan and you can plot as much as you like, but if you ain't lucky it won't happen. So, feeling lucky? Well are you?

Agreed...with a modicum of application I have made a comfortable transition into the civilian world...I used connections made in the mob (be nice to all you meet as you never know just how useful they may prove) to get my foot in the door, sent in one CV, attended one interview mit presentation and got one phonecall saying 'well done...when can you start'. Not at any time was I directly asked about my qualifications...it was as though my background held credibility and that was enough for them. Riggas last point is very true from my observations...For the past few weeks I've felt a bit like a fish in a goldfish bowl on a pedastal as my new colleagues watch for me to spring ninja like into action and do something 'amazing' in terms of leadership and motivation! Obviously it would have been churlish to disappoint...;)

Anyway I now know we undersell ourselves...comparable wages and in fact higher are out there if you market yourselves correctly and have an exit plan...

Good luck to all.

Pilot PVR time below OF-3 is now 12 months with immediate effect - see latest IBN.

That's improved rock bottom morale no end!

:mad:

I don't see what the problem is.

People leave and are replaced by the next generation...we've got plenty of pilots coming through the system. Wait a second...oh no, that's right - a large chunk of them got laid off...is it too late to reverse that decision?