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Meteor Accident Statistics

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Old 16th Dec 2007, 07:01
  #221 (permalink)  
 
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Good to learn that 'Puddy' is still alive and well.

Is that booming voice still inviting all and sundry to "Take Beer!" in his local hostelry?

Just goes to show that aviators live to ripe old ages when allowed to be a little (OK, rather a more than a little) individual and eccentric!!

Pud had a healthy disregard for irritating things like Annual Medicals - one wonders how he would have reacted to the notion of the RAF Fitness Test!
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Old 16th Dec 2007, 15:59
  #222 (permalink)  
 
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Can't vouch for the booming voice as I haven't been down to his place for over a year, but judging by his written humour bemoaning the local supermarket not stocking his favourite beer, he still has it....lol
I'm trying to work out hia age now, as he was never actually as old as many assumed (including me). When I first got reunited with him only a few years ago, he was telling me how 'young' he actually was - and if memory seves me right he had only passed 60 then?

I'm sure there's many years in him yet!!!!
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Old 16th Dec 2007, 21:25
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Unhappy Meteor accident - Kirkcaldy

Some details from 'The Courier' on

http://www.thecourier.co.uk/output/2...10438178t0.asp

Salient quote :-

"The pilot, Flight Lieutenant M. J. Withey, of Malvern, Worcestershire, and Senior Aircraftman D. McLoughlin, of Glasgow, died on October 18, 1957, when their plane, based at West Raynham, Norfolk, came down after engine trouble.
They had been on their way to Leuchars after being diverted from Turnhouse—now Edinburgh airport—because of bad weather when the jet crashed only 100 yards or so short of Dunnikier House Hotel."

Weather or engine problems?

Last edited by A A Gruntpuddock; 16th Dec 2007 at 21:26. Reason: Spelling
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Old 17th Dec 2007, 00:40
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Meteor at Kirkcaldy

Is there no BoI report to be shared after all these years ? If Grunts does not like the suitcase story and would choose between weather and engine failure, has he considered fuel starvation ?

The article Grunts points to suggests 10-15 minutes between trouble and prang. I remember a normal high-level sortie on full ventral being no more than one hour. Withey has covered about 240 nm from Raynham, had one or more stabs at Turnhouse and then climbed out on diversion. At this stage the fuel gauge needles are moving as you watch them. Turnhouse to Leuchars would take 10 minutes at least. He might have elected to transit at min safe altitude on one engine; if that flames out, his R/T call might not be heard by either station. With a station airman (and suitcase ?) in the back, Withey might not regard baling out as an option. Drama turns to tragedy.
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Old 25th Apr 2010, 22:26
  #225 (permalink)  
 
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I have just come across a review of a book called "Meteor - Eject" by Nick Carter. The book contains statistics about loss rates, can anybody who served in the 50/60s confirm these - they seem horrendous?

1. 150 total losses in 1952
2. 68 lost after running out of fuel
3. 23 lost doing official low level aeros displays
4. 890 lost in total
5. 436 fatal accidents between 1944 and 1986.
I was quite shocked to see these statistics.

I recall being told that it was the Avro Shackleton that held the dubious reputation for killing off more aircrew during peace time than any other aircraft in the Royal Aircraft.

I even found it written on the web. See here:


in that article it states:

More good men have died in Shackleton crashes than in any other RAF aircraft type in peacetime.
though I am sure that must be incorrect.


I suppose why people thought that it was the Shackleton that held this dubious record was because a Shackleton crash although relatively rare could result in ten fatalities at a time. On the other hand a Meteor crash would only kill one or two and although far more frequent it would hardly make the news at the time.

Last edited by Wind Sock; 28th Apr 2010 at 07:25.
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Old 3rd Jul 2010, 17:00
  #226 (permalink)  
 
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I have just discovered this thread. I find the views very positive and, if my memory still serves me correctly, accurate and very much to the point.
I did a Day Fighter tour on Meteor 8s in 12 Group 1952 - 1954 and then went to FGA in 2 TAF on Vamps and Venom 1s until 1957. All character building aircraft! The press on spirit prevalent in those days had already begun to evaporate a little when I left the service to fly civvy.
Scanning through the link, I think I can identify some of my thinly disguised compatriots of those days. Looking back again through the thread I see mention of two stalwarts I was privileged to serve with. One is Cess Crook - I was on the same wing as he in 2 TAF and can report that he is alive and well living in NZ and I am in frquent touch with him. I was with him at the leave train incident, and when he told the passengers and crew of the leave ship from the Hook to Harwich over the Tannoy that there was no for panic, but a yeti was loose on board! There were other hilarious incidents involving the Deutsches Bundesbahn but I wouldn't repeat them without Cess' agreement. I met him again professionally when he came to Singapore to join the Pioneer Sqn which I was now on having rejoined the RAF. Bill Arrowsmith is the other luminary I knew well - he was a flight commander on the Twin Pioneer element of the sqn and a fine throat as we used to say!. I apologise for this entry being a bit off topic, I'll get back in line on my next post as, like many others of the 50s era, I can recall one or two 'incidents' in my time on Meteors.

Last edited by Crumble; 3rd Jul 2010 at 20:39. Reason: Further info
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Old 3rd Jul 2010, 18:48
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Windsock

Sadly there is/was nothing remarkable about those accident figures at that time in the post WWII RAF. I don’t have the detailed breakdown for the Meteor but the numbers you quote are rather less than I could easily believe.

The total numbers of aircraft lost by the RAF are available from Kew (as indeed are the Meteor stats I am sure)

Year Aircraft lost Fatalities
1950 380 238
1951 490 280
1952 507 318
1953 483 333
1954 452 283
1955 305 182

(Sorry I could not get the columns to line up with the headings)

Grunt and Ris

The bare facts of the 18 Oct 57 Meteor accident as given in Colin Cummings’ wonderfully researched “Catalogue of RAF aircraft losses 1954-2009” are as follows:

“The aircraft had taken off from RAF West Raynham to ferry some Hunter spares to RAF Turnhouse. The pilot was given clearance for a practice single engine landing and all appeared well as it flew in the circuit at about 1000ft. It was then see to roll rapidly to port and to dive vertically into the ground”

Again I find nothing unusual about such a report at that time.

To get a feel for things in that period you might be interested to know that the RAF laid on a flypast at Odiham on 15 July 52 to mark the Coronation of the Queen. 641 aircraft flew past her dais in 27 minutes and included 276 Meteors as well as 25 other types. On the ground there was a static display of another 320 aircraft.
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Old 3rd Jul 2010, 19:55
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Bit off topic but oddly the Flypast Forums are reporting they have just located a bunch of Syrian Meatboxes being used as decoys, if you want a looksie see

N36 11.22 E037 34.31 - Google Maps

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Old 4th Jul 2010, 01:26
  #229 (permalink)  
 
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Meteor at Kirkcaldy

John Farley at 19:48 last.

I know nothing of the accident except the previous posts. The news report is quite clear that the aircraft landed by the well known hotel outside Kirkcaldy. By my ruler, that is 18 NM on the centreline of what is now Leuchars’ 04 runway. Pace Colin Cummings, that is not in the circuit and not even near enough to start getting into circuit pattern configuration.

Your quote calls to all our minds the notorious Phantom Dive and I suggest you have too quickly given into the temptation to accept this report of another far-too-common circuit accident.

Except Withey was not in the circuit.

My conjectures of 17 December 2007 mostly stand. Taking to be true as much of Cummings’ story as we can, we now forget my suggestions that the aircraft was out of radio contact and that he had gone up to min safe altitude. We can also assume that the airman in the back had to hold onto his suitcase because the Hunter spare part had taken up the (not very big) space in the radio compartment that Henry Crun (17 November 2007 02:28) mentioned.

Withey gets permission to do a practice single engine landing. That suggests obviously that he has been doing the transit on one. An important fact about the single engine transit is that if the other engine is idling, you lose most of the fuel saving. So Withey is probably on one for real.

By the time I did my training three years later, to do a practice asymmetric landing meant having both engines running, but with one idling. If Withey was going to do an approach with both engines running, it would have been ever so much easier to do it the usual way rather than in the practice asymmetric mode.

Air Traffic would not accept an authentic single-engine approach except in a declared emergency. Withey seems not to have declared an emergency. It seems to me that he would be on one engine because he was short of fuel - and that he planned to land on one because he was desperately short of fuel. It would be a small and understandable part of this story if he calculated that telling ATC of his self-induced emergency would not help him with his problem and would make certain an unpleasant interview on Monday morning.

With twenty miles to go, his live engine winds down. If he accepts that and thinks he might have fuel available to the other engine, he would try to start that. In the meantime he is losing airspeed. He is fighting the rudder load appropriate to the engine that just died; it takes quite a number of turns to wind that off. He has to wind on the same amount in the opposite direction if his other engine lights up – which only happens if he has a spare hand to operate the HP cock, and the button on the end of it, in just the right way.

Managing the rudder in the ordinary asymmetric situation is very demanding of your leg muscles if you could not (as I could) lock your leg over-centre at the knee. In that way you were able to fix the rudder at full deflection for as long as necessary. As I see it turning out for Withey, he should initially have held the rudder central against full left or right trim; to do this he could not lock his leg but would have to hold his leg bent at the knee. Maybe he was not (and maybe I would not have been) strong enough to hold that position. If then the second engine lit, perhaps he had to lock full rudder against full opposite trim.

All this to keep the ball in the centre … but perhaps he found too little time to look at the turn-and-slip at all. Perhaps he is really running out of airspeed … and has not given himself time to see that either.

The Phantom Dive was remarkable because a Meteor at normal circuit speed would roll and plunge to the ground. There is sadly nothing remarkable about any aircraft doing that if it is yawing when it stalls.



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Old 4th Jul 2010, 10:37
  #230 (permalink)  

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Ris

I am sorry if your reading of my post makes you feel I was expressing views as to what happened. I can assure you I was not. I was merely offering a quote from a well recognised authority and saying that it did not surprise me.

Having flown several marks of Meteor I could offer a lot of comment about your conjectures regarding this accident. However I see no point in that because I have no way of authenticating or disproving the conflicting reports of this accident.

JF
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Old 4th Jul 2010, 11:10
  #231 (permalink)  
 
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I understand that they managed to get the twin-Nene deflected jet Meteor RA490 down to about 70KIAS during trials. I hate to imagine what would have happened had an engine failed at such very low speeds; recovery near the ground would surely have been impossible - and bang seats of the time, even if fitted, wouldn't have been of much help.

Brave chaps, those early TPs!
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Old 4th Jul 2010, 17:06
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Meteor at Kirkcaldy

Dear John (if I may be so bold)

I am not familiar with Cummings. I happily accept your view that he is an authority. I read your excerpt from his writings and responded at first with the response I attributed to you. You left it at that, while I realised that what he said was incompatible with what had already been said on this thread. So off I go on a stream of conjecture - which I enjoy by myself, which I offer for others to work on and which I expect to be greatly improved by those who know more than I do.

I am used to contributors who would (slightly sanctimoniously I think) stop people speculating about the latest accident. I on the other hand, at the sight of fresh blood on the tarmac, become very inquisitive and would share that response with other aviators and ex-aviators. One might have stopped flying, but one need not stop learning.

Kirkcaldy was over fifty years ago. I am puzzled that you are interested enough to read and write about this incident but would yet withhold your own knowledge and opinion. Is there a measurable quantity of Meteor experience which, if I had asserted it, would have gained enough of your respect for you to open up ? Three marks would perhaps not be enough, even though the T7 is the lowest common factor in everyone’s Meteor experience anyway. Have you pranged one ? - aha! Mine was Cat 5. Would my last Meteor sortie be more recent than yours – quite possibly.

I may even be ready for some of the points that you would have made if you had been less scrupulous. If I could remember the (surely very simple) fuel management system, I might have known there would have been no question of finding more fuel behind the dead engine. I may be overdoing the foot load arising from full rudder trim acting on the centralised rudders when both engines are quiet, especially as the airspeed is decaying. Indeed full trim had perhaps not been needed for the single-engine cruise. Perhaps, sadly, we should swap an image of the one-armed paper-hanger in his last moments for that of the pilot “with nothing on the clock but a vacant expression”.

We would no doubt be discussing the accident in a much more informed manner if the official accident report were to hand. Yet I expect that would start me off on a new line of thought - probably “I wonder what they meant by that” – and I would be glad to know what others thought as a result.
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Old 4th Jul 2010, 19:39
  #233 (permalink)  

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Dear Ris

Thank you for taking the trouble to reply properly to my second post. Such courtesy seldom seems to happen here these days but then you and I are of a similar generation that was perhaps brought up differently.

Re Cummings the 2009 Cummings book (Category Five) I quoted from is his eighth in a series about RAF losses and was published post Haddon-Cave. Indeed his comments regarding that report and that of the Puma accident are very interesting. His acknowledgements of people and organisations that provided the data for this book runs to two pages. His summaries of the accidents of which I have some personal knowledge appear to be totally accurate.

However, as you would expect from an experienced author, he does say that it is inevitable that the book will have sins of commission and omission. If you want to give me the date of your Meteor Cat 5 I will look it up and PM you what Cummings says!

I agree with you that speculation immediately after an accident should not be derided in the way it is by some on PPRuNe. To my mind such speculation is part of the process of spreading the word so that all those operating a similar type, or who are involved in similar operations, can perhaps avoid a similar event. Those who really are in the flying business can easily sift out the informed comment from the rubbish.

My Meteor time involved no accidents although one of the two seaters I flew (a specially modified NF11 used as a thunderstorm probe by the RAE Aerodynamics Research Flight) did present me with a double flame out when a lightning strike offended both Derwents. Self inflicted injury one could say though and not a reflection on the soundness of the Derwent 5.

I take your points about foot forces when asymmetric, the airbrake/undercarriage related ‘phantom dive’ and indeed the various possibilities of mis-managing the fuel system.

When trying to come up with the most likely bit of speculation my experience suggests that the explanation that requires the least complicated plot stands the best chance of being right. Incidentally I also feel that technical failures are most likely to have the pilot climbing on the R/T whereas if he has boobed he is likely to be too busy trying to unboob himself to make R/T calls.

As to why I came on the thread it was because of post 226 where a young Wind Sock expressed shock at the events of 50 years ago.

John
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Old 4th Jul 2010, 21:49
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When trying to come up with the most likely bit of speculation my experience suggests that the explanation that requires the least complicated plot stands the best chance of being right.


Occam's Razor, Sir:

and your profound experience adds to that maxim.
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Old 5th Jul 2010, 00:08
  #235 (permalink)  
 
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John Farley & Rlsbutler, please carry on as I & I think many other people will appreciate learning much from sensible and properly knowledgeable talk
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Old 5th Jul 2010, 08:31
  #236 (permalink)  

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Ta Tyres

I think Ris and I are done as he has checked the Cummings entry of his prang and confirms the data in C's book.

If anybody else has info on a Cat 5 PM me and I will check that against C's version as well.

JF
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Old 5th Jul 2010, 11:31
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Withey gets permission to do a practice single engine landing. That suggests obviously that he has been doing the transit on one.
I'm interested in this observation. Why does this lead you to believe it was a single engine transit? Would it not have been normal to bring one engine to idle to specifically perform a practice single engine approach?

I know the Meteor (and Canberra for that matter) were a handful in asymmetric flight, and the 'wrong boot' accounted for a number of losses during the approach and t.o. phase during practice engine failures. Would that not have been a more likely scenario here?

Just wondering.
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Old 5th Jul 2010, 12:39
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Meteor at Kirkcaldy

Vox Pop

This sub-thread starts at post 202. I suggest you work forward from there. You are right about the practising of assymmetric flight. I am arguing that the pilot was running out of fuel and not likely to be thinking of doing an awkward landing for the fun of it.
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Old 5th Jul 2010, 19:04
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Crumble...

...check your private messages. Thanks.

The Ancient Mariner
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Old 6th Jul 2010, 08:51
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More Meteor Prangs

Regarding the correspondence about listings of Meteor prangs and Colin Cummings' book; "Category Five", which deals with RAF accidents 1954 to 2009.

About 400 Meteor accidents are listed in an earlier book by the same guy. This book is called; "Last Take-Off" and it sells via Amazon. The tome deals with 1950 to 1953.

Cummings is an amiable old buffer and always pleased to help those with specific queries or who want lists for Sqn histories or details of their best mate's prang. He's on [email protected]
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