NATO vs Russia
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Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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From: Peripatetic
Paul Mason - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Mason_(journalist)
Every stunt Russia has pulled since the US election feels to me like a pre-programmed sequence: the cable cutting, the MRBM attack; destabilisation of Romania, Moldova and now Transnistria ... hard to know the purpose without intelligence.
At baseline it creates uncertainty, shakes the tree, shows a range of options for escalation... but I keep coming back to Orban's taunt against Zelensky - "this is the most dangerous point of the conflict" - ie a warning of "escalate to de-escalate".
That was surely an echo of His Master's Voice... while Western governments are refusing to attribute RU blatant attacks. Why? Could be an agreed strategem; could be fear of domestic destabilisation.
Either way, Finland has put a stop to that.
The seized tanker will not only provide evidence of Russian (and potentially Chinese) culpability on cable cutting. It will open a public conversation about what Putin is trying to achieve. Remember the RU economy is close to f***ed.
There is no obligation for NATO countries to signal publicly to Russia what the escalation ladder looks like - but we do have to now make this a political argument at home.
The Russians are attacking the energy, transport and digital infrastructure of our Allies. Is anybody not up for stopping them? And what do such people (Nigel, Jeremy, Carla) suggest we do instead?
There are many unknowns about this situation: ultimately the biggest one is Russian intent over Ukraine. And that's by design. If Russia scores a slam dunk in the German Bundestag elections, "winning without fighting" - ie the effective neutralisation of NATO - becomes possible.
To finish: in a period where a nuclear armed power is sabotaging vital infrastructure - anyone who thinks we can defend the UK on 2.5% of GDP is kidding themselves…..
At baseline it creates uncertainty, shakes the tree, shows a range of options for escalation... but I keep coming back to Orban's taunt against Zelensky - "this is the most dangerous point of the conflict" - ie a warning of "escalate to de-escalate".
That was surely an echo of His Master's Voice... while Western governments are refusing to attribute RU blatant attacks. Why? Could be an agreed strategem; could be fear of domestic destabilisation.
Either way, Finland has put a stop to that.
The seized tanker will not only provide evidence of Russian (and potentially Chinese) culpability on cable cutting. It will open a public conversation about what Putin is trying to achieve. Remember the RU economy is close to f***ed.
There is no obligation for NATO countries to signal publicly to Russia what the escalation ladder looks like - but we do have to now make this a political argument at home.
The Russians are attacking the energy, transport and digital infrastructure of our Allies. Is anybody not up for stopping them? And what do such people (Nigel, Jeremy, Carla) suggest we do instead?
There are many unknowns about this situation: ultimately the biggest one is Russian intent over Ukraine. And that's by design. If Russia scores a slam dunk in the German Bundestag elections, "winning without fighting" - ie the effective neutralisation of NATO - becomes possible.
To finish: in a period where a nuclear armed power is sabotaging vital infrastructure - anyone who thinks we can defend the UK on 2.5% of GDP is kidding themselves…..
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Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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From: Peripatetic
NATO sources suggest Russia may be practicing attacks on Finland and NATO’s eastern flank, aiming for "historical territories" like the 18th-century empire. Threats include missile strikes on Helsinki and moves toward the Kymijoki River.
https://t.co/1DpAVmKttw
https://t.co/1DpAVmKttw
NATO sources tell Iltalehti that Russia has been practicing an attack on Finland and other countries of NATO's eastern side.
Sources estimate that Russia would aim for the borders of the Peace of Turku from 1743. In that case, the Russian invasion forces would aim as far as Kymijoki. Further north, the objective of the attack would be Puumalansalmi.
The threat assessment estimates that Russia would like a buffer zone for itself:
- Russia's security thinking shows the pursuit of strategic depth and the effort to create a unified buffer zone in Europe, all the way from the Arctic region through the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea to the Mediterranean Sea.
According to NATO's threat assessment, Russian missile attacks would also target Helsinki. The Russians' main attack direction would be in the Baltics.
Vladimir Putin said in his annual propaganda speech on December 19 that Russia has "enough forces and means to restore all its historical territories".
Earlier, Putin has said that his ideal is the Russian Empire of the 18th century. Sources say that Putin's words should be taken literally. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania would be at risk, but also Southeastern Finland.
Sources estimate that Russia would aim for the borders of the Peace of Turku from 1743. In that case, the Russian invasion forces would aim as far as Kymijoki. Further north, the objective of the attack would be Puumalansalmi.
The threat assessment estimates that Russia would like a buffer zone for itself:
- Russia's security thinking shows the pursuit of strategic depth and the effort to create a unified buffer zone in Europe, all the way from the Arctic region through the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea to the Mediterranean Sea.
According to NATO's threat assessment, Russian missile attacks would also target Helsinki. The Russians' main attack direction would be in the Baltics.
Vladimir Putin said in his annual propaganda speech on December 19 that Russia has "enough forces and means to restore all its historical territories".
Earlier, Putin has said that his ideal is the Russian Empire of the 18th century. Sources say that Putin's words should be taken literally. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania would be at risk, but also Southeastern Finland.
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From: uk
Russia unlawfully invaded Ukraine and has committed many many transparently unlawful atrocities
how can she now expect to receive any protection under normal UN /world/NATO laws?
should normal rules be discarded in ALL dealings with Russia or would this risk uncontrolled escalation- bearing in mind that surprisingly she still has many allies.
I guess that a phoney war is better than a real WW3 and 2 wrongs don’t make a right but it’s all a bit unreal and as usual it’s a pity that the UN doesn’t have more clout .
how can she now expect to receive any protection under normal UN /world/NATO laws?
should normal rules be discarded in ALL dealings with Russia or would this risk uncontrolled escalation- bearing in mind that surprisingly she still has many allies.
I guess that a phoney war is better than a real WW3 and 2 wrongs don’t make a right but it’s all a bit unreal and as usual it’s a pity that the UN doesn’t have more clout .
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From: Europe
TR: The question posed by megan was simple: does the action taken by Russia legally constitute an act of war.
Finland and Estonia have every right to intern the vessel, hold the crew for investigation and prosecution, and to sell the seized asset used in a crime along with its cargo while demanding restitution from the flag state. Not sure the ship is worth much, the cargo has some limited value, and the crew will be better housed and fed in Finland than Russia anyway. UNCLOS does not speak adequately to deliberate sabotage by a state actor against another, but then, they too have some cables, comms lines etc, murmansk, Sea of Okhotsk seem like great locations to go trawling with anchors. Same in the SCS, China has some comms underwater to their beloved reefs, would be a shame to go dark. Most is satcom, some RF into the region would be handy. Play reruns of I Love Lucy.
- Under NATO Charter, Article 5 it does not meet the requirement, which is of an armed attack;
- Under UNCLOS, Article 113, it is up to the legislation of the states concerned to determine the penalty for interference with undersea cables, power or communications etc;
- The question wasn't do I agree that it is suitably sanctioned under law as a deliberate act of sabotage against a countries infrastructure? Had that been the case I would have suggested that the remedies that exist are inadequate, (even if the action occurs within territorial waters). Russia and China have played a game of disruption that is inadequately sanctioned, but does not under any current legislation that I am aware of, rise to the standard of a casus belli. It may not be satisfying, it may not be tidy, it may not even be logical on face value, but that is the law.
Finland and Estonia have every right to intern the vessel, hold the crew for investigation and prosecution, and to sell the seized asset used in a crime along with its cargo while demanding restitution from the flag state. Not sure the ship is worth much, the cargo has some limited value, and the crew will be better housed and fed in Finland than Russia anyway. UNCLOS does not speak adequately to deliberate sabotage by a state actor against another, but then, they too have some cables, comms lines etc, murmansk, Sea of Okhotsk seem like great locations to go trawling with anchors. Same in the SCS, China has some comms underwater to their beloved reefs, would be a shame to go dark. Most is satcom, some RF into the region would be handy. Play reruns of I Love Lucy.
https://www.shs-conferences.org/arti...2019_01022.pdf
If an action were taken with a piece of timber is that an armed attack ? Does it become an armed attack if the piece of timber is now described as a club ? When does an anchor become a grappling hook ?
Whilst I personally do not consider that these many incidents constitute armed attacks, nonetheless they are worthy of responses so as to dissuade Russia/Putin/etc from undertaking further actions. Those responses do not need to be precisely symmetrical, indeed in my opinion it would be helpful if there were a bit of somewhat random asymmetry so as to make Russia/Putin think very carefully before doing anything again. Or any helpers in China, NORK, etc.
(And this should be entirely separate from giving Ukraine as much as possible by way of support. That should continue/increase as a given.)
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From: Peripatetic
Another Russian shadow fleet tanker in the Baltic has had engine failure and been abandoned. Finnish coastguard monitoring.
https://x.com/zacken/status/1873326102825034155?s=61
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From: 3rd Rock, #29B
The wording "armed attack" is itself undefined.
https://www.shs-conferences.org/arti...2019_01022.pdf
If an action were taken with a piece of timber is that an armed attack ? Does it become an armed attack if the piece of timber is now described as a club ? When does an anchor become a grappling hook ?
Whilst I personally do not consider that these many incidents constitute armed attacks, nonetheless they are worthy of responses so as to dissuade Russia/Putin/etc from undertaking further actions. Those responses do not need to be precisely symmetrical, indeed in my opinion it would be helpful if there were a bit of somewhat random asymmetry so as to make Russia/Putin think very carefully before doing anything again. Or any helpers in China, NORK, etc.
(And this should be entirely separate from giving Ukraine as much as possible by way of support. That should continue/increase as a given.)
https://www.shs-conferences.org/arti...2019_01022.pdf
If an action were taken with a piece of timber is that an armed attack ? Does it become an armed attack if the piece of timber is now described as a club ? When does an anchor become a grappling hook ?
Whilst I personally do not consider that these many incidents constitute armed attacks, nonetheless they are worthy of responses so as to dissuade Russia/Putin/etc from undertaking further actions. Those responses do not need to be precisely symmetrical, indeed in my opinion it would be helpful if there were a bit of somewhat random asymmetry so as to make Russia/Putin think very carefully before doing anything again. Or any helpers in China, NORK, etc.
(And this should be entirely separate from giving Ukraine as much as possible by way of support. That should continue/increase as a given.)
it sucks, but it normally acts as a brake to ill conceived actions. Except with Russia, who elect to work in the grey assuming that their intended prey will not respond due to their preferred adherence to a higher moral ground.Russia has routinely plumbed the depths of moral depravity and appears to revel in that state. Without a clear position being stated clearly enough that they can understand the consequences, Russia and to an extent China will continue to test the boundaries of acceptable behavior.
Blackadder suggests that a sharp mango may be considered a weapon to be armed with, but that seems to be a position Finland, Estonia, the UN, and the ASEAN nations have not yet reached. Perhaps they should, if there is sufficient popcorn for the ensuing show.
Russia revels in the opportunity to do harm and to destabilize as they take advantage of civilization trying to be civilized, and that begs a question, why are they afforded privileges of being treated as a civilized nation when they have no intent in behaving as one. Rather than "armed" being the trigger condition, perhaps "interference" would result in assisting the recalcitrant child that keeps throwing its rattle out of the crib to behave in a tolerable manner. Vlads mouthpieces continue to bray their intent to revisit a time of empires, which is not consistent with any part of the UN Charter. China has the same geopolitical view.
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From: Europe
Normally. laws act to give an equitable resolution for a situation. In the case of international law, they act to give a friction on the slope towards aggression. Having terms that are ill defined while problematic give options in a response from an event, but also should give pause to an aggressor with an intent to do harm. Common law definitions may be assumed, but that also may result in an outcome that was undesired by the parties concerned.
it sucks, but it normally acts as a brake to ill conceived actions. Except with Russia, who elect to work in the grey assuming that their intended prey will not respond due to their preferred adherence to a higher moral ground.Russia has routinely plumbed the depths of moral depravity and appears to revel in that state. Without a clear position being stated clearly enough that they can understand the consequences, Russia and to an extent China will continue to test the boundaries of acceptable behavior..
it sucks, but it normally acts as a brake to ill conceived actions. Except with Russia, who elect to work in the grey assuming that their intended prey will not respond due to their preferred adherence to a higher moral ground.Russia has routinely plumbed the depths of moral depravity and appears to revel in that state. Without a clear position being stated clearly enough that they can understand the consequences, Russia and to an extent China will continue to test the boundaries of acceptable behavior..
https://www.shs-conferences.org/arti...2019_01022.pdf
In that context the quantitative threshold is certainly being probed
A crazy Ivan response by the collective West might be more effective as a control technique than continued weary patience by nanny.
(as well as, of course, full & direct support of Ukraine)
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From: 3rd Rock, #29B
In the various wordings there is the concept of quantity as well as quality when it comes to "testing" for what consitutes "armed attack" as aggressive behavior.
https://www.shs-conferences.org/arti...2019_01022.pdf
In that context the quantitative threshold is certainly being probed
https://x.com/LinasKojala/status/1873343400101216362?
A crazy Ivan response by the collective West might be more effective as a control technique than continued weary patience by nanny.
(as well as, of course, full & direct support of Ukraine)
https://www.shs-conferences.org/arti...2019_01022.pdf
In that context the quantitative threshold is certainly being probed
https://x.com/LinasKojala/status/1873343400101216362?
A crazy Ivan response by the collective West might be more effective as a control technique than continued weary patience by nanny.
(as well as, of course, full & direct support of Ukraine)
If Russia is unable to be trusted in transiting international waters or EEZ or territorial water or international passages without causing damage, then they need to be escorted with an armed force that is trained directly at their bridges as a suggestion to not drop their picks over infrastructure. In the baltic, it is reasonable to charge a transit fee for the reminder service, and to ask the ships captains to sign a waiver for the consequential loss of their ship, cargo and crew should their behaviour need to be responded to. They can always not sign and go home. This would be argued to be a blockade, and the silks would not need to be Rumple or Perry Mason to argue that was not the case at all, it is a friendly reminder service that due to their historic inability to manage their ship systems is necessary. If Russia and China behave, then there is no blockade, and if they don't, then they get lit up. Nice n' clean. Both Russia and China can always stay home.
As an addition, adding coast guard inspections to all Chinese inbound and outbound shipping needing to transit the SCS would seem to make some sense as well. After all, it is becoming more dangerous due to the actions of PRC coast guard vessels that seem to have an inordinately poor steering system performance, they keep on running into Philippine vessels on a routine basis, can't be taking chances with safety of those involved. I would think that for the thousands of ships that ply the straits of Malacca, a single inspection boat and inspector should be able to clear a cargo ship in no more than 3 days each vessel, so, with about 1000 ships a day, that should get the bean counters working. It is not a blockade mind, it is a safety inspection based on an abundance of due care.
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From: Denmark
fdr is on to something. Denmark and Sweden could leave the Copenhagen Convention of 1857 as well as article 282 of the Treaty of Versailles of 1919, and voila, the Danish straits are not international waters anymore. So if you want in, or out of the Baltic you'll have to transit Danish or Swedish national waters.
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From: Peripatetic
EAGLE S UPDATE
Finnish National Bureau of Investigation:
In preliminary investigation of the cable damage in Gulf of Finland, a drag mark spanning dozens of kilometers has been found on the seabed.
Finnish National Bureau of Investigation:
In preliminary investigation of the cable damage in Gulf of Finland, a drag mark spanning dozens of kilometers has been found on the seabed.
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From: 3rd Rock, #29B
fdr is on to something. Denmark and Sweden could leave the Copenhagen Convention of 1857 as well as article 282 of the Treaty of Versailles of 1919, and voila, the Danish straits are not international waters anymore. So if you want in, or out of the Baltic you'll have to transit Danish or Swedish national waters.
- Minsk Agreement, December 30, 1991
- Lisbon Protocol, May 23, 1992
- Massandra Accords, Trilateral Statement on January 14, 1994
- Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances on December 5, 1994
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Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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From: Peripatetic
Following several incidents recently of Russian and Chinese linked ships damaging submarine cables in the Baltic sea; the Prime Minister of Latvia, Evika Siliņa has stated that they may soon begin seizing ships of the Russian “Shadow Fleet” in order to defend critical Infrastructure.
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From: Peripatetic
Russian BALLET is in full swing in the Baltic sea - 🧵
1. Eastern Glory, crude oil tanker (Gabon) which departed from Ust-Luga is doing some "arabesque".
2. Coral Evolution LNG tanker (🇷🇺
which departed from Zeebrugge, Belgium is doing some splits.
3. The SIBONI, bulk carrier (Malta, an EU country which has dark vessel for russia) which departed from Ust-Luga and is supposed to go to Tallinn, Estonia, is doing "arabesque".
1. Eastern Glory, crude oil tanker (Gabon) which departed from Ust-Luga is doing some "arabesque".
2. Coral Evolution LNG tanker (🇷🇺
which departed from Zeebrugge, Belgium is doing some splits.3. The SIBONI, bulk carrier (Malta, an EU country which has dark vessel for russia) which departed from Ust-Luga and is supposed to go to Tallinn, Estonia, is doing "arabesque".
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From: München
Steve Rosenberg BBC reporter
BBC Video to watch the video
BBC Video to watch the video
Spoiler
An end to the war and lower food prices - what Russians want in 2025 Ahead of the New Year holiday, I've been asking Russians about their hopes for 2025. From their replies it's clear that people here want an end to the fighting.But how will the war end? And when? No one's certain. The other major concern for Russians is the economy. Prices have been rising fast.
And what do Russians think of Vladimir Putin, in power now for 25 years? Do they still trust him to take the right decisions for their country?
And what do Russians think of Vladimir Putin, in power now for 25 years? Do they still trust him to take the right decisions for their country?
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From: Glorious Devon
Eastern Glory seems to be in an anchorage with many other vessels
Coral Evolution is moored alongside at its destination
Seaboni is in the same anchorage as Eastern Glory
Nothing to see here
Coral Evolution is moored alongside at its destination
Seaboni is in the same anchorage as Eastern Glory
Nothing to see here
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From: Yakima
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From: PLanet Earth
Just have them pay high damages and if they don't pay, confiscate ship and its load. Give the money to Ukraine in the form of additional weapons.
Tabs please!
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From: Biffins Bridge
Interesting. If the "anchor" can be recovered, it may provide useful evidence. I presume the authorities are having a good look at the anchors of all vessels that are being boarded i.e. are they of an unexpected design?