Paul Mason -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Mason_(journalist)
Every stunt Russia has pulled since the US election feels to me like a pre-programmed sequence: the cable cutting, the MRBM attack; destabilisation of Romania, Moldova and now Transnistria ... hard to know the purpose without intelligence.
At baseline it creates uncertainty, shakes the tree, shows a range of options for escalation... but I keep coming back to Orban's taunt against Zelensky - "this is the most dangerous point of the conflict" - ie a warning of "escalate to de-escalate".
That was surely an echo of His Master's Voice... while Western governments are refusing to attribute RU blatant attacks. Why? Could be an agreed strategem; could be fear of domestic destabilisation.
Either way, Finland has put a stop to that.
The seized tanker will not only provide evidence of Russian (and potentially Chinese) culpability on cable cutting. It will open a public conversation about what Putin is trying to achieve. Remember the RU economy is close to f***ed.
There is no obligation for NATO countries to signal publicly to Russia what the escalation ladder looks like - but we do have to now make this a political argument at home.
The Russians are attacking the energy, transport and digital infrastructure of our Allies. Is anybody not up for stopping them? And what do such people (Nigel, Jeremy, Carla) suggest we do instead?
There are many unknowns about this situation: ultimately the biggest one is Russian intent over Ukraine. And that's by design. If Russia scores a slam dunk in the German Bundestag elections, "winning without fighting" - ie the effective neutralisation of NATO - becomes possible.
To finish: in a period where a nuclear armed power is sabotaging vital infrastructure - anyone who thinks we can defend the UK on 2.5% of GDP is kidding themselves…..