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NATO vs Russia

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Old 21st May 2024, 12:34
  #421 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Spunky Monkey
​​​"Tusk explained that the group planned, for example, to set fire to a paint factory in Wroclaw, western Poland, and an Ikea center in Lithuania…."
Jeeez how will Europe cope against such outrages?
The effect of destabilising a population should not be confused with destabilising a government, although the former can lead to the latter.
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Old 21st May 2024, 13:28
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Originally Posted by wondering

The whole argument about feeling threatened is moot with nuclear weapons. Who in his right mind would attack a country which is armed to the teeth with nuclear weapons? .
Argentina? Although one could argue that Galtieri wasn't of sound mind.
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Old 21st May 2024, 20:55
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Russia adopting Chinese tactics - let’s see them try and enforce them the way the Chinese are doing…..​​​​​​​Russian authorities have made a unilateral decision to change the sea borders of Russia with Lithuania and Finland in the Baltic Sea. This follows from the draft government resolution published on the portal of legal acts of the Russian Federation.

According to the document drafted by the Russian defense ministry, Russia intends to declare part of the water area in the east of the Gulf of Finland, as well as near the cities of Baltiysk and Zelenogradsk in the Kaliningrad region as its internal sea waters.

To do that, geographic coordinates of the points that determine the position of the baselines from which the width of the territorial sea of ​​the Russian Federation is measured, as well as the adjacent zone off the coast and islands will be changed.

🔹️At the border with Finland, Russian government intends to correct the coordinates in the area of ​​the islands of Yahi, Sommers, Holland, Rodsher, Maly Tyuters, Vigrund, as well as near the northern entrance cape of the Narva River, follows from the appendix to the Cabinet of Ministers.

🔹️On the border with Lithuania, the area of ​​the Curonian Spit in the Gulf of Gdansk, the areas of Cape Taran, the cape south of Cape Taran, as well as the Baltic Spit came under review.

The current geographical coordinates established by the USSR Council of Ministers in 1985 “do not fully correspond to the modern geographical situation,” the authors of the project claim. The points were recorded “using small-scale maritime navigation charts,” which, in turn, were based on works from the mid-20th century, and this “does not allow us to determine the external boundary of the internal sea waters” of the Russian Federation, the document says.

As a result of the changes, “a previously absent system of straight baselines will be established on the southern part of the Russian islands in the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland, as well as in the area of ​​Baltiysk and Zelenogradsk, allowing the corresponding water areas to be used as internal sea waters of the Russian Federation; The passage of the State border of the Russian Federation at sea will change due to a change in the position of the external border of the territorial sea,” the authors of the project explained.

The 40-year-old resolution of the USSR Council of Ministers regulating the borders in the Baltic Sea is proposed by the Ministry of Defense to be partially “recognized as ineffective” (section “Baltic Sea”).
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Old 22nd May 2024, 01:17
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Hmmmm that’s interesting, I wonder what the reason is behind that. Again that must be deemed as NATO territory.

[QUOTE][[url]https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1792988181723218211/QUOTE]

https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1792988181723218211

​​​​​​​https://x.com/TristanSnell/status/1793050286006644800

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.

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Old 22nd May 2024, 01:45
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A man making a whole lot of sense.

https://x.com/martenkokk/status/1792...​​
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Old 22nd May 2024, 05:40
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I have considered the same thing. We are in the period of the late 30's where Japan was ascendant and Nazi Germany was grabbing land under the pretext of joining the German speaking people. The only thing that will change the outcome is the willingness of the Western countries to make clear its intentions to defend Ukraine with all means available to stop the spread of one man's revisionist ideas of history. Just like one man's desire for revenge due to Versailles we have another man wanting revenge for the collapse of Communism and its supposed humiliation of the citizens of the USSR.
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Old 22nd May 2024, 07:30
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The thing is, the Finland - Russia border cuts the Vanhasaari island in the middle (Malyy island in Russian). If Russia is to move the borders unilaterally thereby expanding their territory, they are actually trying to take Finnish soil. Personally I consider that as a declaration of war.
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Old 22nd May 2024, 08:19
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If Ukraine had done this years ago, Russia would not now be able to use the railways to support their front line…

Baltics take note….

“Finland is thinking about abandoning the “Russian” railway gauge after joining NATO”

Do it. Do it now.

https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2024/05/2...v-nato-a131376


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Old 22nd May 2024, 08:25
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You can't "change your border" unilaterally - all you are doing is making a claim (see "x-dash line").

In every border dispute it takes BOTH sides to agree (see Spain & UK at Gib.)

I don't think they are planning to change the border across any land - that really would be a war-like action - and against a NATO member.

They're redefining the baseline points on the coast from which they define their marine boundaries. This is a common issue in lots of places - Greece-Turkey for example. My suspicion is that the 1985 mapping was crook - old USSR maps were notoriously wrong - deliberately so . They may well have "bent" the maps in 1985 to make it harder for NATO to plan an attack - now they realise they actually screwed up..................

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Old 22nd May 2024, 10:32
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
You can't "change your border" unilaterally - all you are doing is making a claim (see "x-dash line").

In every border dispute it takes BOTH sides to agree (see Spain & UK at Gib.)

I don't think they are planning to change the border across any land - that really would be a war-like action - and against a NATO member.

They're redefining the baseline points on the coast from which they define their marine boundaries. This is a common issue in lots of places - Greece-Turkey for example. My suspicion is that the 1985 mapping was crook - old USSR maps were notoriously wrong - deliberately so . They may well have "bent" the maps in 1985 to make it harder for NATO to plan an attack - now they realise they actually screwed up..................
Most of the sea border of Russia is directly against Finnish or Estonian border, there is a very narrow international water area. In essence, if Russians wish to expand their area, it would be a demand towards Finland or Estonia.
This is no coincidence. Talks of 1985 maps being wrong is irrelevant Kremlin excuse.

NOTE: the islands in question today were part of Finland prior the Winter war, and Soviet Union made demands regarding those islands to Finland in 1938 "to protect SU interests against nazi Germany".

To make it short: Russians knew their baseline points in 1985, they know them now. It is just an excuse by Russians to test responses from individual countries, the EU, NATO and UN. Russia unfortunately is very good at such operations.

NATO has announced it will protect the freedom of navigation. What if Russia unilaterally announces parts of international waters as its own territory and sends warships to repell any ships entering the waters? What will be NATOs response?
What if Russia claims Estonian waters as their area? Rinse and repeat in the Kaliningrad area.

Maskirovka, again.
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Old 22nd May 2024, 11:14
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"NATO has announced it will protect the freedom of navigation. What if Russia unilaterally announces parts of international waters as its own territory"

That's the point - it's unilateral - and it takes all sides to agree any boundary. If the Russians make a unilateral change and then seek to enforce it then, as you say, that becomes a potential incident. It took years for the N Sea to be divvied up - at one point the Dutch and the Danes agreed a boundary (which contained several gas discoveries) which severely restricted German waters. After a lot of noise it was amended in a 3 way discussion.


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Old 22nd May 2024, 11:20
  #432 (permalink)  
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the point - it's unilateral - and it takes all sides to agree any boundary. If the Russians make a unilateral change and then seek to enforce it then, as you say, that becomes a potential incident.
Which why I suggest you look at what the Chinese have been doing in the South China Seas, particularly Vietnamese and Philippines waters….

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Old 22nd May 2024, 11:22
  #433 (permalink)  
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Putin's plans include capturing the Swedish island of Gotland in order to gain control over the Baltic Sea, - Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Mikael Büden in an interview with RND.

He stated that due to the increase of Russian aggression around the world, Sweden was forced to arm Gotland: "it is protected with the help of units permanently stationed there and the transfer of additional forces [in case of danger]."

Probably, the head of the Kremlin is also interested in the Åland Islands. "The Russians are closely monitoring what is happening at the entrances and exits to the Baltic Sea."

Putitnt's appetite for additional territories grows the weaker Europe reacts. And Europe has not responded at all so far.



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Old 22nd May 2024, 11:28
  #434 (permalink)  
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Old 22nd May 2024, 11:48
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Re the Baltic Sea, don't forget there are only three narrow straits out of it, and those have NATO countries on both sides of them.
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Old 22nd May 2024, 12:57
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Russia adopting Chinese tactics - let’s see them try and enforce them the way the Chinese are doing…..

The 40-year-old resolution of the USSR Council of Ministers regulating the borders in the Baltic Sea is proposed by the Ministry of Defense to be partially “recognized as ineffective” (section “Baltic Sea”).
Just like the Turk/Greek bit in the Aegean, but maybe not as cordial now. (I say that with tongue slightly in cheek, the cordial bit).
Originally Posted by Lookleft
we have another man wanting revenge for the collapse of Communism and its supposed humiliation of the citizens of the USSR.
The Chinese have been leaning on their "century of humiliation line" for about 50 years. They still hold a grudge over the 19th century.
Originally Posted by ORAC
Which why I suggest you look at what the Chinese have been doing in the South Chia Seas, particularly Vietnamese and Philippines waters….
Yep. They'll push and see what they can get away with. Putin's playbook is quite similar.
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Old 22nd May 2024, 14:50
  #437 (permalink)  
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https://notesfrompoland.com/2024/05/...tre-says-tusk/

Russia “likely” behind fire that destroyed Warsaw shopping centre, says Tusk

It is “likely” that Russia was involved in the fire that recently destroyed Warsaw’s largest shopping centre, says Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. However, he added that investigations are still ongoing.

At a press conference on Tuesday afternoon, at which he was discussing the formation of a new commission to investigate Russian influence in Poland, Tusk said Russian operatives could have been involved in the fire that earlier this month destroyed the Marywilska 44 shopping centre.

That incident, in which no one was hurt, came amid a spate of other fires around Poland in the period of a few days, leading to speculation that they could be the result of a Russian sabotage campaign.

“We are examining the threads – they are quite likely – that the Russian services had something to do with the Marywilska fire,” said Tusk. But he added that “proceedings are ongoing” and full information would be provided when the investigation reached a conclusion.…

At the same press conference, Tusk also announced that three further people suspected of carrying out sabotage on behalf of Russia had been detained overnight, adding to the nine that he revealed yesterday.…
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Old 22nd May 2024, 15:55
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Looks like the Russian may be walking that back:
By Guy Faulconbridge and Stine Jacobsen

MOSCOW/COPENHAGEN (Reuters) -A Russian defence ministry proposal to revise Russia's maritime border in the eastern Baltic Sea was deleted on Wednesday from an official portal after creating confusion and concern among NATO members such as Finland, Sweden, Lithuania and Estonia.

In its official submission, the defence ministry said that a Soviet measurement of the border from 1985 had used mid-20th century nautical charts, and so did not fully correspond to more modern cartographical coordinates. But that proposal was deleted on Wednesday from the official portal where it had been posted.

A message said simply: "The draft is deleted." It gave no explanation. The defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment.
It was not immediately clear from the original draft decree exactly how the border might be adjusted and whether or not there had been any consultation with other states adjoining the Baltic Sea.

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson told the TT news agency: "Russia can't unilaterally decide on new borders."
Finnish President Alexander Stubb said Russia had not been in touch, adding: "Finland acts as always: calmly and based on facts."
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis called the proposal an "obvious escalation" against the U.S.-led NATO military alliance and the European Union.
He said it "must be met with an appropriately firm response".
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said: "At first glance, it seems to be an absurd notion."
In an emailed comment to Reuters, he added: "It cannot be ruled out that the report is an attempt to sow confusion."
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Old 22nd May 2024, 19:22
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
Looks like the Russian may be walking that back:
I admire the Finnish reaction. They are truely level headed. All this chicken little crying based on some deliberately leaked snippets plays fully into the hands of Putin.
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Old 22nd May 2024, 20:09
  #440 (permalink)  
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Here in Finland, the last 24 hours have been geopolitically unusual.

Reports from Russia suggested a unilateral desire to modify their maritime borders in the Gulf of Finland and near Kaliningrad. The Finnish government learned about this through the media. 1/🧵

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...479963262.html
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