Venezuela poised to invade Guyana
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...gnty-essequibo
Venezuela referendum result: voters back bid to claim sovereignty over large swath of Guyana
Venezuelans have approved a referendum called by the government of President Nicolás Maduro to claim sovereignty over an oil- and mineral-rich piece of neighbouring Guyana, the country’s electoral authority announced.
Few voters could be seen at voting centres, but the National Electoral Council claimed more than 10.5 million ballots were cast in the country of 20 million eligible voters…..
Venezuelan voters were asked whether they support establishing a state in the disputed territory, known as Essequibo, granting citizenship to current and future residents and rejecting the jurisdiction of the United Nations’ top court in settling the disagreement between the South American countries.
“It has been a total success for our country, for our democracy,” Maduro told supporters gathered in Caracas, the capital, after the results were announced, before highlighting the “very important level of participation of the people” in the referendum.
Throughout Sunday, long lines typical of electoral events did not form outside voting centres in Caracas. Reuters witnesses visited voting centres across the country – many had few or no people waiting in line. In Maracaibo, in the oil-rich state of Zulia, poll workers told Reuters that turnout was low.
Still, before the 12-hour voting window was scheduled to end, the country’s top electoral authority official, Elvis Amoroso, announced polls would remain open for two additional hours because of what he described as “massive participation”.
Participation of more than 10.5 million voters means that more people voted in the referendum than did for Hugo Chávez, Maduro’s mentor and predecessor, when he was re-elected in 2012….
Although the practical and legal implications of the referendum remain unclear, in comments explaining Friday’s verdict, ICJ president Joan E Donoghue said statements from Venezuela’s government suggested it “is taking steps with a view toward acquiring control over and administering the territory in dispute”.
“Furthermore, Venezuelan military officials announced that Venezuela is taking concrete measures to build an airstrip to serve as a ‘logistical support point for the integral development of the Essequibo,’” she said….
Venezuela referendum result: voters back bid to claim sovereignty over large swath of Guyana
Venezuelans have approved a referendum called by the government of President Nicolás Maduro to claim sovereignty over an oil- and mineral-rich piece of neighbouring Guyana, the country’s electoral authority announced.
Few voters could be seen at voting centres, but the National Electoral Council claimed more than 10.5 million ballots were cast in the country of 20 million eligible voters…..
Venezuelan voters were asked whether they support establishing a state in the disputed territory, known as Essequibo, granting citizenship to current and future residents and rejecting the jurisdiction of the United Nations’ top court in settling the disagreement between the South American countries.
“It has been a total success for our country, for our democracy,” Maduro told supporters gathered in Caracas, the capital, after the results were announced, before highlighting the “very important level of participation of the people” in the referendum.
Throughout Sunday, long lines typical of electoral events did not form outside voting centres in Caracas. Reuters witnesses visited voting centres across the country – many had few or no people waiting in line. In Maracaibo, in the oil-rich state of Zulia, poll workers told Reuters that turnout was low.
Still, before the 12-hour voting window was scheduled to end, the country’s top electoral authority official, Elvis Amoroso, announced polls would remain open for two additional hours because of what he described as “massive participation”.
Participation of more than 10.5 million voters means that more people voted in the referendum than did for Hugo Chávez, Maduro’s mentor and predecessor, when he was re-elected in 2012….
Although the practical and legal implications of the referendum remain unclear, in comments explaining Friday’s verdict, ICJ president Joan E Donoghue said statements from Venezuela’s government suggested it “is taking steps with a view toward acquiring control over and administering the territory in dispute”.
“Furthermore, Venezuelan military officials announced that Venezuela is taking concrete measures to build an airstrip to serve as a ‘logistical support point for the integral development of the Essequibo,’” she said….
For ORAC: heh, for once they "listen to their voters"
Vox populi!
Perhaps in Surinam? I recall working with a Dutch Air Force major years ago whose family was originally from there. Is there an air base there? NATO allies helping one another, perhaps?
Then again, the Americans in '83 had no plan for what to do about Grenada, and cobbled together an op plan in something less than four days. Yes, it was a lot closer to our homeland ... but I suppose it could be managed...with a little help from your friends.
As Ringo Starr once intoned
- I think the US would probably offer some help to get a UK op up and running.
Biden doesn't have Obama's Anglophobic streak in him, and Maduro (like Chavez before him) is mostly a pain in the butt, foreign policy wise, for the folks in Washington.
Vox populi!
I've crawled through a lot of papers on defence planning from 50s -70s and this scenario never once featured in planners assumptions for contingency planning. People seem to be moaning that we don't have the ability to intervene in a situation we've spent roughly 70 years assuming we wouldn't get involved in anyway...
: Oh, I get by with a little help from my friends"
Biden doesn't have Obama's Anglophobic streak in him, and Maduro (like Chavez before him) is mostly a pain in the butt, foreign policy wise, for the folks in Washington.
The votes have been counted and the people have approved the taking of Guyana by Venezuela.
Does the 1899 Treaty no longer remain valid?
Will this lead to War and see the end of Guyana as we know it?
Which oil company winds up with the windfall from the "annexation"?
Does the Biden Administration hold to the Monroe Doctrine or just beg for cheap oil?
Does any of this really matter?
https://www.foxnews.com/world/venezu...trolled-guyana
Does the 1899 Treaty no longer remain valid?
Will this lead to War and see the end of Guyana as we know it?
Which oil company winds up with the windfall from the "annexation"?
Does the Biden Administration hold to the Monroe Doctrine or just beg for cheap oil?
Does any of this really matter?
https://www.foxnews.com/world/venezu...trolled-guyana
LW50 :-
So which friends helped you to cobble that one together then Lonewolf?
Then again, the Americans in '83 had no plan for what to do about Grenada, and cobbled together an op plan in something less than four days. Yes, it was a lot closer to our homeland ... but I suppose it could be managed...with a little help from your friends.
Despite all the gainsayers, this is not a major problem for the UK military. They are certainly all over it at the moment, but
are not announcing their plans on PPrune, for obvious reasons.
But if you look at what we could do with Victor/:Harriers to Belize and Victors/F4s to the Falkland Islands it should
not be impossible for Voyagers/Typhoon/F35 to Georgetown. After all the runways are 11,250ft long and British Airways
operate B777 from there. So possibly a reasonable capable airfield. We can also probably find a couple of "Daddy Hercules",
aka A400, to carry support crews and some khaki clad bretheren to assist.
Also we have a Flatop in the area, which we could populate with aircraft;
Just in time for "Operation Deny Christmas!!"
Merry Christmas
are not announcing their plans on PPrune, for obvious reasons.
But if you look at what we could do with Victor/:Harriers to Belize and Victors/F4s to the Falkland Islands it should
not be impossible for Voyagers/Typhoon/F35 to Georgetown. After all the runways are 11,250ft long and British Airways
operate B777 from there. So possibly a reasonable capable airfield. We can also probably find a couple of "Daddy Hercules",
aka A400, to carry support crews and some khaki clad bretheren to assist.
Also we have a Flatop in the area, which we could populate with aircraft;
Just in time for "Operation Deny Christmas!!"
Merry Christmas
I'd need to check my old notes, but I recall that the special relationship was an asset.
Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 4th Dec 2023 at 18:53.
The votes have been counted and the people have approved the taking of Guyana by Venezuela.
Does the 1899 Treaty no longer remain valid?
Will this lead to War and see the end of Guyana as we know it?
Which oil company winds up with the windfall from the "annexation"?
Does the Biden Administration hold to the Monroe Doctrine or just beg for cheap oil?
Does any of this really matter?
https://www.foxnews.com/world/venezu...trolled-guyana
Does the 1899 Treaty no longer remain valid?
Will this lead to War and see the end of Guyana as we know it?
Which oil company winds up with the windfall from the "annexation"?
Does the Biden Administration hold to the Monroe Doctrine or just beg for cheap oil?
Does any of this really matter?
https://www.foxnews.com/world/venezu...trolled-guyana
Mr Maduro is doing more or less what is expected of him - following his own inner voice, rather than listening to anyone outside of Venezuela (and particularly nobody in Washington since 2002 or before if we include the Chavez years).
What that means to me is that if the US uses rhetoric to try and convince him that this move into Guyana is not in his interests, someone will have to show him rather than tell him. (And if China tells him "don't" or if Russia tells him "don't' perhaps there would be a different response. Not sure).
A WSJ article on Mister Maduro is probably more US politics-ish, so I'll spoiler it (actually, just an excerpt) but I think it applies to this case in terms of who can apply persuasive means to convince him not to do this.
Apparently, one of the major South American nations, Brazil, isn't going to be heeded in terms of advising him not to do this.
What that means to me is that if the US uses rhetoric to try and convince him that this move into Guyana is not in his interests, someone will have to show him rather than tell him. (And if China tells him "don't" or if Russia tells him "don't' perhaps there would be a different response. Not sure).
A WSJ article on Mister Maduro is probably more US politics-ish, so I'll spoiler it (actually, just an excerpt) but I think it applies to this case in terms of who can apply persuasive means to convince him not to do this.
Apparently, one of the major South American nations, Brazil, isn't going to be heeded in terms of advising him not to do this.
Spoiler
Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 4th Dec 2023 at 22:41.
Men mean more than guns in the rating of a ship.
~ John Paul Jones ~
If we go back into some ancient history, the Argentine San Luis, a type 209, was a capable submarine that was sent to contest the amphibious operation in and around the Falklands.
How well trained that crew was is open to some question, as regards the deployment of the Torpedoes they were armed with. (Atlas Elektronik)
From a USNI analysis of the patrol of the San Luis ... athough there are a variety of differing versions of these events depending on what one reads...
While the quoted summary lists "materiel problems" some of those issues were training, readiness, and maintenance related.
So I ask anyone who knows: what's the state of training and readiness of the Venezuelan (Type 209) submarine's crew that may be able to get to sea?
A question worth answering, or having a good answer to.
If Guyana gets no support from other places, or from someone like OAS, Venezuela gets a cake walk if they get organized.
Given that both Venezuela and Guyana are members of OAS, the next meeting will doubtless involve a lot of tooth sucking and extra coffee.
From the OAS web site:
So how's that last bit going for you?
~ John Paul Jones ~
If we go back into some ancient history, the Argentine San Luis, a type 209, was a capable submarine that was sent to contest the amphibious operation in and around the Falklands.
How well trained that crew was is open to some question, as regards the deployment of the Torpedoes they were armed with. (Atlas Elektronik)
From a USNI analysis of the patrol of the San Luis ... athough there are a variety of differing versions of these events depending on what one reads...
Spoiler
So I ask anyone who knows: what's the state of training and readiness of the Venezuelan (Type 209) submarine's crew that may be able to get to sea?
A question worth answering, or having a good answer to.
If Guyana gets no support from other places, or from someone like OAS, Venezuela gets a cake walk if they get organized.
Given that both Venezuela and Guyana are members of OAS, the next meeting will doubtless involve a lot of tooth sucking and extra coffee.
From the OAS web site:
The nations of the Americas have overcome their civil wars and bloody conflicts which unfortunately characterized the region for many years. Only one nation today continues to struggle with a conflict within its borders. However, the idea of “peace” extends beyond armed conflicts and is one that the OAS is committed to continue fostering among its member states. Through its many programs, such as the OAS Peace Fund, the Organization is helping to work towards this goal.
The OAS works towards preventing conflicts and resolving disputes through a range of conflict resolution mechanisms including direct negotiation, mediation, judicial settlement and arbitration.
The OAS works towards preventing conflicts and resolving disputes through a range of conflict resolution mechanisms including direct negotiation, mediation, judicial settlement and arbitration.
Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 5th Dec 2023 at 00:33.
Despite all the gainsayers, this is not a major problem for the UK military. They are certainly all over it at the moment, but
are not announcing their plans on PPrune, for obvious reasons.
But if you look at what we could do with Victor/:Harriers to Belize and Victors/F4s to the Falkland Islands it should
not be impossible for Voyagers/Typhoon/F35 to Georgetown. After all the runways are 11,250ft long and British Airways
operate B777 from there. So possibly a reasonable capable airfield. We can also probably find a couple of "Daddy Hercules",
aka A400, to carry support crews and some khaki clad bretheren to assist.
Also we have a Flatop in the area, which we could populate with aircraft;
Just in time for "Operation Deny Christmas!!"
Merry Christmas
are not announcing their plans on PPrune, for obvious reasons.
But if you look at what we could do with Victor/:Harriers to Belize and Victors/F4s to the Falkland Islands it should
not be impossible for Voyagers/Typhoon/F35 to Georgetown. After all the runways are 11,250ft long and British Airways
operate B777 from there. So possibly a reasonable capable airfield. We can also probably find a couple of "Daddy Hercules",
aka A400, to carry support crews and some khaki clad bretheren to assist.
Also we have a Flatop in the area, which we could populate with aircraft;
Just in time for "Operation Deny Christmas!!"
Merry Christmas
Despite all the gainsayers, this is not a major problem for the UK military. They are certainly all over it at the moment, but
are not announcing their plans on PPrune, for obvious reasons.
But if you look at what we could do with Victor/:Harriers to Belize and Victors/F4s to the Falkland Islands it should
not be impossible for Voyagers/Typhoon/F35 to Georgetown. After all the runways are 11,250ft long and British Airways
operate B777 from there. So possibly a reasonable capable airfield. We can also probably find a couple of "Daddy Hercules",
aka A400, to carry support crews and some khaki clad bretheren to assist.
Also we have a Flatop in the area, which we could populate with aircraft;
are not announcing their plans on PPrune, for obvious reasons.
But if you look at what we could do with Victor/:Harriers to Belize and Victors/F4s to the Falkland Islands it should
not be impossible for Voyagers/Typhoon/F35 to Georgetown. After all the runways are 11,250ft long and British Airways
operate B777 from there. So possibly a reasonable capable airfield. We can also probably find a couple of "Daddy Hercules",
aka A400, to carry support crews and some khaki clad bretheren to assist.
Also we have a Flatop in the area, which we could populate with aircraft;
(Yes, I've had to do logistics planning in the dim and distant past). Not sure how robust Host nation is on that score, but if Nutty's opening post is close to the truth, bring your own.
Just in time for "Operation Deny Christmas!!"
Merry Christmas
Merry Christmas
On the US side: starting from going into Somalia, we had Operation Deny Christmas events every year for a few decades somewhere in the world.
Back to Venezuela:
How long does it take to get an Amhpibious ready group from, say, Little Creek Virginia, on load a MEU and put an air group on the LHA/LHD/whatever, and bee bop on down to Guyana?
(I have a 'back of the napkin estimate" on hand, but I'll let you all argue about it).
The ARG could possibly sail in company with a certain carrier, with whom our Marine aviators have an existing working, relationship ... Op Deny Christmas indeed!
I'll send cookies.
Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 5th Dec 2023 at 00:47.
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Crater the runway....pooh!
Motor graders, Bull Dozers, School buses, junk automobiles work a treat for blocking a runway.
Cubans did that in Grenada.
Motor graders, Bull Dozers, School buses, junk automobiles work a treat for blocking a runway.
Cubans did that in Grenada.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...m-vote-turnout
Madero vote to claim Guyana’s territory backfires as Venezuelans stay home
The government of Guyana has breathed a sigh of relief after a referendum intended to rubber-stamp Venezuela’s claim to about two-thirds of the tiny South American country’s territory appeared to have backfired.
Nicolás Maduro had hoped to leverage his country’s century-long claim to the disputed Essequibo region to mobilise public support but voting stations across the country were largely quiet on Sunday as most voters shunned the issue.….
Venezuela’s government has said that more than 10.5 million people voted in the referendum – which would be a higher number than voted to re-elect Maduro’s more popular predecessor, Hugo Chávez, in 2012. Venezuela’s electoral authority said it had extended the voting window on Sunday evening due to “massive participation”.
The government figures have been widely scrutinised, however, given that analysts say they do not correspond with the scenes at voting stations. “They haven’t admitted it explicitly but it’s obvious [they rigged the results],” Gunson said.
An image purported to have been shared and later deleted by Venezuela’s electoral authority showed a table with about 2 million votes for each of the five questions, suggesting that they tallied the number of votes rather than voters to spin the public relations disaster.
The Venezuelan government has not published any detailed or regional results, adding to doubts around their validity. “If the government stands by their claim that this is a massive success they should have no difficulty in publishing the breakdown of votes,” said Geoff Ramsey, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
“This is a massive PR disaster for Maduro. They’ve been firing the propaganda machine on all cylinders for months but despite their best efforts turnout is way below what we expected,” he added.
Intelligence collected by Guyana and its allies suggest the actual turnout was fewer than 1.5 million people – less than a 10th of the population – said a source close to the Guyanese government who described the move as “rigonomics”.
“I think Maduro miscalculated in a very, very big way,” the source added….
Madero vote to claim Guyana’s territory backfires as Venezuelans stay home
The government of Guyana has breathed a sigh of relief after a referendum intended to rubber-stamp Venezuela’s claim to about two-thirds of the tiny South American country’s territory appeared to have backfired.
Nicolás Maduro had hoped to leverage his country’s century-long claim to the disputed Essequibo region to mobilise public support but voting stations across the country were largely quiet on Sunday as most voters shunned the issue.….
Venezuela’s government has said that more than 10.5 million people voted in the referendum – which would be a higher number than voted to re-elect Maduro’s more popular predecessor, Hugo Chávez, in 2012. Venezuela’s electoral authority said it had extended the voting window on Sunday evening due to “massive participation”.
The government figures have been widely scrutinised, however, given that analysts say they do not correspond with the scenes at voting stations. “They haven’t admitted it explicitly but it’s obvious [they rigged the results],” Gunson said.
An image purported to have been shared and later deleted by Venezuela’s electoral authority showed a table with about 2 million votes for each of the five questions, suggesting that they tallied the number of votes rather than voters to spin the public relations disaster.
The Venezuelan government has not published any detailed or regional results, adding to doubts around their validity. “If the government stands by their claim that this is a massive success they should have no difficulty in publishing the breakdown of votes,” said Geoff Ramsey, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
“This is a massive PR disaster for Maduro. They’ve been firing the propaganda machine on all cylinders for months but despite their best efforts turnout is way below what we expected,” he added.
Intelligence collected by Guyana and its allies suggest the actual turnout was fewer than 1.5 million people – less than a 10th of the population – said a source close to the Guyanese government who described the move as “rigonomics”.
“I think Maduro miscalculated in a very, very big way,” the source added….
H I Sutton - Covert Shores
Overview of Venezuelan Navy 2023
Overview of Venezuelan Navy 2023
Hope is not a method.
As to the election, I guess we'd need to dig into the laws in Venezuela to see what level of participation does, or does not, constitute a valid referendum.
I don't know, does anyone?
I lamented recently the problem of a recent referendum in our district/county; the voter turn out was just over 10% but the measure still passed or failed regardless of how many showed up.
Whomever showed up to vote made the difference.
As to the election, I guess we'd need to dig into the laws in Venezuela to see what level of participation does, or does not, constitute a valid referendum.
I don't know, does anyone?
I lamented recently the problem of a recent referendum in our district/county; the voter turn out was just over 10% but the measure still passed or failed regardless of how many showed up.
Whomever showed up to vote made the difference.
On Sunday Venezuelans approved a referendum called by Maduro to claim sovereignty over Essequibo.
Venezuela has long argued the territory, which comprises two-thirds of Guyana, was stolen when the border was drawn more than a century ago. But Guyana considers the referendum a step toward annexation, and the vote has its residents on edge.
Guyana has denounced the referendum as pretext to annex the land. It had appealed to the International Court of Justice, the United Nations’ top court, which on Friday ordered Venezuela not to take any action to change the status quo until the panel can rule on the two countries’ competing claims, which could take years.
Venezuela has long argued the territory, which comprises two-thirds of Guyana, was stolen when the border was drawn more than a century ago. But Guyana considers the referendum a step toward annexation, and the vote has its residents on edge.
Guyana has denounced the referendum as pretext to annex the land. It had appealed to the International Court of Justice, the United Nations’ top court, which on Friday ordered Venezuela not to take any action to change the status quo until the panel can rule on the two countries’ competing claims, which could take years.