Gaza Air War
You suppose that by waiting as the IDF has....and Hamas continuing to launch rockets willy nilly.....that at some point that could lead to the rocket firing coming to a natural end by Hamas totally expending its ready supply and they will be forced to either smuggle in new armament or put their manufacturing cells into max rate production and making themselves more susceptible to interdiction by the IDF? If the IDF enters Gaza by ground it will be tasked based upon current and newly acquired intelligence of where the building of weapons inside Gaza are taking place and also by tracing back the launch and traffic to/from those sites.
That puts Hamas in a bind.....if they run out of rockets.....cannot smuggle rockets into Gaza....and their manufacturing cells are overrun by the IDF....then Hamas has to revert to a different mode of fighting.
With a highly secure border between Gaza and Israel.....and the West Bank and Israel.....what will Hamas do?
To be honest....the rocket attacks do not seem to have had a significant effect upon Israel despite the many that have been launched.
The IronDome and other counter-measures seem to be stopping many of the Hamas rockets without them reaching the ground intact.
Any thinking the IDF is just going to do a complete razing. of northern Gaza just is not taking into consideration it is not needed and would only bring such political pressure form around the World as to make it a very unwise action.
The Israeli's might be in a mood to wreak havoc on those that attacked them but it will be done with some very careful calculations as to what they can do in reality.
I am sure they have a target list that varies with the situation to include locations inside Gaza that are known Hamas sites of all sorts.....and those are on the top of the list.
The thing about tunnels is they have two ends or more....find one opening and you can find the rest from inside rather than looking from outside.
That puts Hamas in a bind.....if they run out of rockets.....cannot smuggle rockets into Gaza....and their manufacturing cells are overrun by the IDF....then Hamas has to revert to a different mode of fighting.
With a highly secure border between Gaza and Israel.....and the West Bank and Israel.....what will Hamas do?
To be honest....the rocket attacks do not seem to have had a significant effect upon Israel despite the many that have been launched.
The IronDome and other counter-measures seem to be stopping many of the Hamas rockets without them reaching the ground intact.
Any thinking the IDF is just going to do a complete razing. of northern Gaza just is not taking into consideration it is not needed and would only bring such political pressure form around the World as to make it a very unwise action.
The Israeli's might be in a mood to wreak havoc on those that attacked them but it will be done with some very careful calculations as to what they can do in reality.
I am sure they have a target list that varies with the situation to include locations inside Gaza that are known Hamas sites of all sorts.....and those are on the top of the list.
The thing about tunnels is they have two ends or more....find one opening and you can find the rest from inside rather than looking from outside.
Originally Posted by [email protected]
I think the 'confirmation bias' here is more displayed by those who will side with the people they identify with ethnically, ideologically and religiously rather than the 'other team'
I don't really care who the missile came from - the loss of hundreds of lives is more important than finger pointing - I am just open to non-Western sources of information rather than dismissing them out of hand.
If you don't understand that both sides have learned a lot about the manipulation of information and its power in conflict, then you will continue to show unthinking bias]
I don't really care who the missile came from - the loss of hundreds of lives is more important than finger pointing - I am just open to non-Western sources of information rather than dismissing them out of hand.
If you don't understand that both sides have learned a lot about the manipulation of information and its power in conflict, then you will continue to show unthinking bias]
Watching non-western media parroting Hamas numbers as if they are confirmed fact does not equate to keeping an open mind when, since day 1, it is in Hamas' interest to inflate them. If the IAF took the night off and not a single sortie flown, the next day you'd still have the Gaza Health Ministry reporting another 250 killed and 600 wounded by IAF bombs "that targeted medical facilities and civilians sheltering in schools".
"Mildly" Eccentric Stardriver
It may aleady have been mentioned, in which case apologies. My guess is the intention of the ground war is to totally destroy the tunnel system. That would make a big dent in Hamas's capability.
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No one but Hamas wants to see civilian casualties in Gaza and Israel. Israel is not seeking to commit an atrocity in its response, or even to exact an "eye for an eye", but rather to put an end to Hamas which perpetrated this violence, killing over 1,000 civilians. Such a thing cannot be permitted to continue to exist. Granted, this is a tall objective, but it is existential and we can expect Israel to pursue it with all they have and no one can blame them.
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Administrator
Be warned:
I will be banning from Military Aviation posting, for extended periods, those who cannot stay on topic in this thread.
Take it to Jet Blast if you want to rant about the political mess involved in all of this. (And it is considerable).
Focus on The Gaza Air War as BV has requested.
He was right to do so.
I will be banning from Military Aviation posting, for extended periods, those who cannot stay on topic in this thread.
Take it to Jet Blast if you want to rant about the political mess involved in all of this. (And it is considerable).
Focus on The Gaza Air War as BV has requested.
He was right to do so.
Sounds like the heaviest bombing of the campaign so far, with reports of lots of a israeli armor moving to the border the ground war might be kicking off. We will know in the next few hours (4am local time as I type this)
I also didn't see it mentioned. USS Eisenhower is redeploying to middle east (centcom), leaving Ford in the med and Vinson in the indo pacific
I also didn't see it mentioned. USS Eisenhower is redeploying to middle east (centcom), leaving Ford in the med and Vinson in the indo pacific
Be warned:
I will be banning from Military Aviation posting, for extended periods, those who cannot stay on topic in this thread.
Take it to Jet Blast if you want to rant about the political mess involved in all of this. (And it is considerable).
Focus on The Gaza Air War as BV has requested.
He was right to do so.
I will be banning from Military Aviation posting, for extended periods, those who cannot stay on topic in this thread.
Take it to Jet Blast if you want to rant about the political mess involved in all of this. (And it is considerable).
Focus on The Gaza Air War as BV has requested.
He was right to do so.
Thread Starter
Melmoth
As the OP I’d be more than happy with that. There are bound to be air considerations with any ground war anyway. Let’s just steer clear of politics.
BV
BV
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
It would seem the delay is because the US isn’t yet ready…. Presumably waiting for CTGs, MEU and FJ deployments to get into position and combat ready.
US ground forces in Iraq are already experiencing daily drone and other attacks..
Several U.S. Defense officials have stated the Israeli government has notified them that their continuous requests for delays in regards to the ground invasion of Gaza, which Secretary Austin reportedly urgently conveyed over the weekend, is beginning to “wear thin,” but that the Department of Defense still doesn’t believe they are prepared for a major outbreak of violence and attacks throughout the region, which they believe will occur when the invasion begins, with assets and troops still moving into position and possible targets still being Identified…..
US ground forces in Iraq are already experiencing daily drone and other attacks..
Several U.S. Defense officials have stated the Israeli government has notified them that their continuous requests for delays in regards to the ground invasion of Gaza, which Secretary Austin reportedly urgently conveyed over the weekend, is beginning to “wear thin,” but that the Department of Defense still doesn’t believe they are prepared for a major outbreak of violence and attacks throughout the region, which they believe will occur when the invasion begins, with assets and troops still moving into position and possible targets still being Identified…..
It would seem the delay is because the US isn’t yet ready…. Presumably waiting for CTGs, MEU and FJ deployments to get into position and combat ready.
US ground forces in Iraq are already experiencing daily drone and other attacks..
Several U.S. Defense officials have stated the Israeli government has notified them that their continuous requests for delays in regards to the ground invasion of Gaza, which Secretary Austin reportedly urgently conveyed over the weekend, is beginning to “wear thin,” but that the Department of Defense still doesn’t believe they are prepared for a major outbreak of violence and attacks throughout the region, which they believe will occur when the invasion begins, with assets and troops still moving into position and possible targets still being Identified…..
US ground forces in Iraq are already experiencing daily drone and other attacks..
Several U.S. Defense officials have stated the Israeli government has notified them that their continuous requests for delays in regards to the ground invasion of Gaza, which Secretary Austin reportedly urgently conveyed over the weekend, is beginning to “wear thin,” but that the Department of Defense still doesn’t believe they are prepared for a major outbreak of violence and attacks throughout the region, which they believe will occur when the invasion begins, with assets and troops still moving into position and possible targets still being Identified…..
We know where the Navy is and, although there hasn't been much reporting on it, I assume beginning on the 7th golf courses from Missouri to the ME and Indian Ocean have emptied and the USAF has been diligently brain-working through a whole new set of potential targets, and not limited to Syria and/or southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah alone has a massive stockpile of rockets and missiles not to mention their 60,000+ members so Hamas/Gaza becomes a sideshow if that party begins in earnest. Taking a bit more time to get squared away in order to take out as much of that force as possible during the first 24-48 hours if it does kick off is best because the tunnels in Gaza and those in them aren't going anywhere.
Last edited by PukinDog; 23rd Oct 2023 at 11:56.
Administrator
For Mel: yes, the ground war is on topic if we stick to the operations.
A wonderful rant from a hard-line member of the Knesset on R4 just now - defending the air war and ground war without any thought of compromise.
He believes the only way to defat Hamas is to go in hard regardless of the inevitable loss of civilian life.
The question about the air and ground war is - what is the intended end-state?
How likely is it that the hostages will be returned if the IDF inflict more casualties?
He believes the only way to defat Hamas is to go in hard regardless of the inevitable loss of civilian life.
The question about the air and ground war is - what is the intended end-state?
How likely is it that the hostages will be returned if the IDF inflict more casualties?
Crab, I doubt that the military professionals in the IDF, who are facing the pending ground, air, and information war appreciate a politician - who won't be in Gaza - foaming at the mouth like that.
I am trying to think through how one would write the RoE for the next phase of the operation. It's a nightmare no matter how one peels the onion.
Then consider how one coordinates the air, land and ground operations with the certain bursts of refugee flow. That's a non-trivial problem, right there: refugee flow.
The further into Gaza the IDF goes, a great many folks with nowhere to run to will end up being all around the troops doing ... whatever it is they've been told to do. I'll bet you a notional pint that 'indiscriminate slaughter' is not going to be in the RoE despite what the loudmouth in the Knesset advocates for.
The people with nowhere to go won't be tossing garlands of flowers to the soldiers.
As to the hostages: I think they are hosed.
I am trying to think through how one would write the RoE for the next phase of the operation. It's a nightmare no matter how one peels the onion.
Then consider how one coordinates the air, land and ground operations with the certain bursts of refugee flow. That's a non-trivial problem, right there: refugee flow.
Refugee flow was one of the parts of a Korean Op Plan that I was familiar with (in the 90's) that presented serious mobility problems. If the shooting started near Seoul, the flow of people - millions of them - getting out of the way of the fighting would be in direct conflict with a lot of troop and supply movement heading into the fight. But there was a bit more area, geographically, to deal with.
As a different point of comparison: a hurricane evacuation is a little like a reugee flow problem. My cousin evacuated from Houston before Hurricane Ike in 2008. Not a war situation, no. It took him 12 hours to get to Dallas (where he had in laws) Usually a three hour drive. He was ahead of the larger outflow. The state transportation system in those arteries was stressed. But there's about two hundred miles of highway between those two cities.
Gaza's a pretty small place. The border to Sinai isn't open. As the armed folks - the IDF - arrive, and as warplanes fly overhead, some people are going to try and flee ... but where to?As a different point of comparison: a hurricane evacuation is a little like a reugee flow problem. My cousin evacuated from Houston before Hurricane Ike in 2008. Not a war situation, no. It took him 12 hours to get to Dallas (where he had in laws) Usually a three hour drive. He was ahead of the larger outflow. The state transportation system in those arteries was stressed. But there's about two hundred miles of highway between those two cities.
The further into Gaza the IDF goes, a great many folks with nowhere to run to will end up being all around the troops doing ... whatever it is they've been told to do. I'll bet you a notional pint that 'indiscriminate slaughter' is not going to be in the RoE despite what the loudmouth in the Knesset advocates for.
The people with nowhere to go won't be tossing garlands of flowers to the soldiers.
As to the hostages: I think they are hosed.
Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 23rd Oct 2023 at 14:38.
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The Israeli's might be in a mood to wreak havoc on those that attacked them but it will be done with some very careful calculations as to what they can do in reality.
I am sure they have a target list that varies with the situation to include locations inside Gaza that are known Hamas sites of all sorts.....and those are on the top of the list.
The thing about tunnels is they have two ends or more....find one opening and you can find the rest from inside rather than looking from outside.
You see all the tanks on the news, but tanks in a city? it would be a killing zone for Hamas.
From what I remember, they don't go in by themselves.
Some years back, the USMC was developing something like a drone (90's: basically a 'finestron facing up') that was intended as a tool for MOUT in terms of eyes and ears for the ground forces (on foot and on wheels/tracks).
Drones, UAV's and RPV's have improved a lot since then, and it was one of those R&D projects that didn't quite pan out.
Saw some operations by armored units in OIF during the 00's. (Won't comment further other than to say that they had a role).
I expect that no matter where they go, air cover will be plentiful in the form of drones and UAV's, and some manned aircraft. The mix? I'd be guessing. That's up to the IDF planning cell to figure out.
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Reality learned as far back as WWI and the first arrival of Tanks to the battlefield.....Tanks must be accompanied by Infantry and use mutual support tactics.
Those lessons when followed up with modern communications, weaponry, still work today even in urban environments.
Among the many air assets are concrete bombs....bombs without explosives useful against structures.
Helicopters have missiles that have no explosives but are very useful against vehicles.
A well trained and professional Air/Ground coordination unit using tanks, infantry, and air assets of all kinds, can be very effective in urban combat.
Urban warfare is the most difficult environment for ground combat for many reasons.
If one adds underground tunnels interconnected to a maze of tunnels and fighting positions it devolves to very slow costly combat for both sides.
The IDF has been there before (except for the tunnels perhaps) and know what they are getting into.
There is a reason for their every move or escalation made more complex by the hostages and back channel negotiations going on about them.
A hostage is useful only if they are alive and unharmed.
When Hamas kills the first hostage and airs a video of it....that will be when the IDF will unleash the full might and capability of their forces.
That is how Police Departments decide to turn their SWAT Teams loose to end a hostage taking situation.
Hamas has a way of ending this latest thing with minimum cost to themselves....free the hostages and end the violence.
That alone will get the water and electricity turned back on and end the IDF's ability to continue or kick off a huge military operation.
World opinion will be that both sides were hurt and the end of the violence is the right thing for both sides.
Will that happen? Will Hamas ever accept a deal or will they just have to be destroyed as a viable anti-Israel organization?
Now is the best opportunity the IDF has of going after Hamas with a no quarter ROE.....will it give that up if the hostages are freed?
We are going to find. out in the coming week.
Those lessons when followed up with modern communications, weaponry, still work today even in urban environments.
Among the many air assets are concrete bombs....bombs without explosives useful against structures.
Helicopters have missiles that have no explosives but are very useful against vehicles.
A well trained and professional Air/Ground coordination unit using tanks, infantry, and air assets of all kinds, can be very effective in urban combat.
Urban warfare is the most difficult environment for ground combat for many reasons.
If one adds underground tunnels interconnected to a maze of tunnels and fighting positions it devolves to very slow costly combat for both sides.
The IDF has been there before (except for the tunnels perhaps) and know what they are getting into.
There is a reason for their every move or escalation made more complex by the hostages and back channel negotiations going on about them.
A hostage is useful only if they are alive and unharmed.
When Hamas kills the first hostage and airs a video of it....that will be when the IDF will unleash the full might and capability of their forces.
That is how Police Departments decide to turn their SWAT Teams loose to end a hostage taking situation.
Hamas has a way of ending this latest thing with minimum cost to themselves....free the hostages and end the violence.
That alone will get the water and electricity turned back on and end the IDF's ability to continue or kick off a huge military operation.
World opinion will be that both sides were hurt and the end of the violence is the right thing for both sides.
Will that happen? Will Hamas ever accept a deal or will they just have to be destroyed as a viable anti-Israel organization?
Now is the best opportunity the IDF has of going after Hamas with a no quarter ROE.....will it give that up if the hostages are freed?
We are going to find. out in the coming week.
I fail to see how the objective "Destroy Hamas" is a credible campaign objective. Kind of like "Destroy Al Qaeda" was a nebulous goal from the kinetic perspective.
Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 23rd Oct 2023 at 16:20.
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