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Gaza Air War

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Old 19th Oct 2023, 16:03
  #181 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by langleybaston
Agreed: see my #155 above regarding IAF debris ........... taking a long time to produce ANYTHING from the explosion, is it not?
They won't bother.

It's the same old song and dance they've always performed, playing the press like cheap fiddles in order to drive news of their own atrocities off the front pages and lead stories until it's a game of "proportional numbers". They'll soon be onto something new and bigger whether it be opportunistic or staged and the press they allow to operate in their territory will play along (or they won't be there). The more desperate Hamas and their ilk become to stave off an IDF ground operation the more inflated the uncorroborated claims of killed and wounded numbers from IAF airstrikes, real or imagined, will be.

They will also claim an impossibly high ratio of young child casualties to the point you'd think the IAF's main target were kindergartens and birthday parties for 5 year olds. Lots of choreographed images of young males running into hospital entrances while carrying unbloodied-but-flopping children while other crowds of young males (who just happen to hang around hospital entrances) express lots of anguish will be shown . Others mugging for the cameras. All scenes that just happen to try and elicit the highest levels of sympathy and victimhood possible. They've been caught out in the past staging these types of scenes for willing media, and that wasn't even when their very existence was on the line.

The hospital explosion story will give way to something new just like the flatbed truck did to the hospital, the truck supplanting the story about an imaginary convoy of 23 ambulances that supposedly got destroyed. Somewhere in there they were claiming the IAF was dousing them with Willie Pete. They're throwing everything against the wall and hoping something sticks.

Hamas has 300,000 IDF troops filled with righteous anger at their doorstep, their backs against the wall, and a death sentence hanging over their heads. They will do and say anything to get the world's sympathy while "martyring" as many as their own as necessary to save their own skins, not unlike claims by certain Germans to the world press in Feb/Mar '45 of 200,000 dead in Dresden and the city having no military targets.

2 of the latest confirmed victims slaughtered in the Hamas attack are the 12 year old autistic girl and the disabled girl with cerebral palsy. Every time news of unmitigated savagery like this hits you can predict, as sure as the sun rises, another uncorroborated claim from an "official" source in Gaza re an IAF bombing that is supposedly a war crime/against humanity/etc..

Last edited by PukinDog; 19th Oct 2023 at 16:46.
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Old 19th Oct 2023, 16:27
  #182 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by PukinDog
It's the same old song and dance they've always performed, playing the press like cheap fiddles in order to drive news of their own atrocities off the front pages and lead stories until it's a game of "proportional numbers". They'll soon be onto something new and bigger whether it be opportunistic or staged and the press they allow to operate in their territory will play along (or they won't be there). The more desperate Hamas and their ilk become to stave off an IDF ground operation the more inflated the uncorroborated claims of killed and wounded numbers from IAF airstrikes, real or imagined, will be. They will also claim an impossibly high ratio of young child casualties to the point you'd think the IAF's main target were kindergartens and birthday parties for 5 year olds. Lots of choreographed images of young males running into hospital entrances while carrying unbloodied-but-flopping children while other crowds of young males (who just happen to hang around hospital entrances) express lots of anguish will be shown . Others mugging for the cameras. All scenes that just happen to try and elicit the highest levels of sympathy and victimhood possible. They've been caught out in the past staging these types of scenes for willing media, and that wasn't even when their very existence was on the line.

The hospital explosion story will give way to something new just like the flatbed truck did to the hospital, the truck supplanting the story about an imaginary convoy of 23 ambulances that supposedly got destroyed. Hamas has 300,000 IDF troops filled with righteous anger at their doorstep, their backs against the wall, and a death sentence hanging over their heads. They will do and say anything to get the world's sympathy while "martyring" as many as their own as necessary to save their own skins, not unlike claims by certain Germans to the world press in Feb/Mar '45 of 200,000 dead in Dresden and the city having no military targets.
The media are willing accomplices in propagating staged narratives and blatant falsehoods.
Been seeing that for decades.
There was a great training film we got years ago about how the use of a narrow field of view is applied by a cameraman, to attempt to create a story that is at odds with how many people are present or are involved in a protest. Selective editing.
Always remember that a reporter is there to tell a story.
The ratio of fact-to-filler-to-falsehood with vary with each reporter and each event.

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Old 19th Oct 2023, 16:29
  #183 (permalink)  
 
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Does this view apply to one side or both?
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Old 19th Oct 2023, 17:57
  #184 (permalink)  
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Rockets vs bombs

I’m just throwing this out there because, in all the reading I’ve done over multiple sources, nobody seems to have a considered it yet. What would the damage look like from an air-burst fuse?

500-1000lb class weapons dropped from an aircraft with an air-burst fuse would leave little or no crater but with a large blast radius. Has this been considered and/or discounted already?

BV
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Old 19th Oct 2023, 18:28
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Originally Posted by Bob Viking
I’m just throwing this out there because, in all the reading I’ve done over multiple sources, nobody seems to have a considered it yet. What would the damage look like from an air-burst fuse?

500-1000lb class weapons dropped from an aircraft with an air-burst fuse would leave little or no crater but with a large blast radius. Has this been considered and/or discounted already?

BV
If you look at the blast site in an aerial view, I'd posit the damage looks no where near enough for an AB 500-1000lb. Cars literally metres from the epicentre are only fire damaged, no blast/frag damage.
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Old 19th Oct 2023, 18:37
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Originally Posted by downsizer
If you look at the blast site in an aerial view, I'd posit the damage looks no where near enough for an AB 500-1000lb. Cars literally metres from the epicentre are only fire damaged, no blast/frag damage.
This, and also you'd have to ask yourself why the Israelis would use an air burst fuze if the aim of the attack was (presumably) to take down infrastructure rather than to kill civilians. Whatever your views on the Israelis are, they know they are in an information war as much as a physical kinetic war, and an airburst strike makes no sense.
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Old 19th Oct 2023, 18:51
  #187 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Bob Viking
I’m just throwing this out there because, in all the reading I’ve done over multiple sources, nobody seems to have a considered it yet. What would the damage look like from an air-burst fuse?
500-1000lb class weapons dropped from an aircraft with an air-burst fuse would leave little or no crater but with a large blast radius. Has this been considered and/or discounted already?
BV
All I see is a few burnt out cars. There is a bit of impact damage to the road surface but none of the major structural damage you'd expect from a bomb exploding nearby. Even the flimsy solar panel arrays are unscathed. I'd say it fits completely with a misfiring rocket hitting the car park and starting a fire with its propellant.
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Old 19th Oct 2023, 19:44
  #188 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Video Mixdown
All I see is a few burnt out cars. There is a bit of impact damage to the road surface but none of the major structural damage you'd expect from a bomb exploding nearby. Even the flimsy solar panel arrays are unscathed. I'd say it fits completely with a misfiring rocket hitting the car park and starting a fire with its propellant.
Difficult to say what it exactly was. What it definitely wasn't is a JDAM or similar. There wouldn't be much left in that picture had it been something like that. You can see what those are doing to such structures and lose stuff sitting around (like cars- you would find them on the roof tops) in all the many other pictures from Gaza.
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Old 19th Oct 2023, 20:42
  #189 (permalink)  
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I think I need to say what many in the strategic studies community is quietly thinking, and indeed saying to me.

Israel appears qualitatively far weaker than we had presupposed, and the dysfunction has bleed into many facets of their political and security apparatus (not all).…

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...803272251.html
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Old 19th Oct 2023, 20:44
  #190 (permalink)  
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The PM traveling on an A400, not on Vespina or anyway a Voyager is pretty unusual, isn't it...? Guessing Envoy IV is not (yet) an option because it isn't yet fitted with the self defensive suite, more than due to its range in and of itself.


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Old 19th Oct 2023, 20:58
  #191 (permalink)  
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The USS Carney, a Navy destroyer in the Red Sea, shot down multiple missiles launched by Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen that the Pentagon said were potentially headed toward targets in Israel.

The ship intercepted three land attack cruise missiles and about eight drones, Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said at a press briefing.

[Presumably Quds-3 missiles: [color=#000000]https://defense-update.com/20220927_...le-quds-3.html ]
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​​​​​​​Israeli sources to i24NEWS Correspondent @GuyAZ: Israel was informed of the missiles launched by Iranian-backed Houthi militants around noon today, with at least one interception carried out by Saudi Arabia

15 drones were identified to have been launched from Yemen, with some of the interceptions conducted by electronic warfare.

Last edited by ORAC; 19th Oct 2023 at 21:09.
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Old 19th Oct 2023, 21:06
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Originally Posted by ORAC
The PM traveling on an A400, not on Vespina or anyway a Voyager is pretty unusual, isn't it...? Guessing Envoy IV is not (yet) an option because it isn't yet fitted with the self defensive suite, more than due to its range in and of itself.
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Probably because of the personnel and equipment that travelled with him.
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Old 19th Oct 2023, 21:12
  #193 (permalink)  
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BREAKING: The American military base at Al-Tanf in Syria has been attacked by drones, according to Fox News.

In addition, local media reports a missile strike on the American base at the Al-Omar oil field.

​​​​​​​| Heavy explosions are heard in the American bases located in Dhiban, Al-Hawaij and Al-Omar fields in Syria.
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Old 19th Oct 2023, 21:18
  #194 (permalink)  
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The movement of ballistic missiles has been observed in Iran, such photos are posted by local channels.


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Old 19th Oct 2023, 22:17
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Reported in various sources:
A US Navy ship shot down several missiles and drones launched by an Iran-backed militant group on Thursday. The destabilizing incident is one of several that has occurred over the past few days amid soaring tensions across the Middle East. USS Carney (DDG-64) a Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer, shot down three land-attack cruise missiles and several drones that were fired by Houthi rebels from Yemen, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters on Thursday. The threats were traveling in a northern direction along the Red Sea, "potentially" toward targets in Israel, he added, and were shot down over the water.
Shot the missiles, etc, out of the air.

For ORAC: (regarding TBMs moving about in Iran).
If TBM's are fired towards Israel, from Iran, it will be of interest to me to see if the 6th Fleet Aegis-equipped ships are able to hit them. This is allegedly why that task force/CVBG was moved into the Eastern Med.
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Old 20th Oct 2023, 00:44
  #196 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Bob Viking
I’m just throwing this out there because, in all the reading I’ve done over multiple sources, nobody seems to have a considered it yet. What would the damage look like from an air-burst fuse?

500-1000lb class weapons dropped from an aircraft with an air-burst fuse would leave little or no crater but with a large blast radius. Has this been considered and/or discounted already?

BV
Have you reviewed the US assessment of the source of the explosion?
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Old 20th Oct 2023, 00:47
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IDFAF Herk has just landed at Koln-Bonn

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Old 20th Oct 2023, 06:55
  #198 (permalink)  
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USS Mount Whitney is heading for the Eastern Med to join the 2 CTGs and the MEU.

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Old 20th Oct 2023, 07:29
  #199 (permalink)  
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Reference the question as too whether attacks on Israel had ceased. Just one days worth.

ISW: https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ctober-19-2023

Palestinian militias continued indirect fire from the Gaza Strip into Israel on October 19.

The al Qassem Brigades—Hamas’ militant wing—claimed responsibility for 15 mortar and rocket attacks.

Saraya al Quds—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed responsibility for another eight rocket attacks.

The al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades—the self-claimed militant wing of Fatah—claimed two rocket attacks.

The National Resistance Brigades—the militant wing of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine—claimed one mortar attack on an IDF military base in southern Israel.

These attack patterns show how Hamas remains the most prominent actor attacking Israel from the Gaza Strip but also how other Palestinian militias have joined the fighting against Israel since the war began on October 7.

PIJ published a message saying “save our shells, you will be blessed with flames,” indicating that PIJ is following Hamas’ approach of reducing indirect fire attacks to conserve its stockpile and prepare for a prolonged war.

Saraya al Quds launched 19 mortar and rocket attacks on October 18 compared to the eight attacks on October 19. CTP-ISW previously reported that Hamas began reducing its rate of attacks from the Gaza Strip on October 12 to conserve munitions.

———————

An Israeli journalist indicated that Hamas is trying to attack natural gas rigs in the Mediterranean Sea.

The journalist claimed that the IDF has intercepted several attempts from unidentified militants to conduct rocket attacks on such rigs.Israel previously shut down the Tamar gas field, which Hamas struck in 2014, on October 9. About 58 percent of the energy from the gas field served Israel, while 15.5 percent was exported to Jordan.

The Israeli Navy stopped Hamas attempts to send its unmanned mini-submarines into the sea, which Hamas could use to attack energy platforms, according to a report on October 19.

——————-



CTP-ISW recorded 13 attacks from Lebanon into Israeli territory on October 19.The attacks targeted locations across the entire length of the Israel-Lebanon border.

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) claimed six mortar and small arms fire attacks. LH launched four ATGM at Israeli military positions along the eastern border and released a video of its recent ATGM attacks on Israeli tanks. LH has also continued to target Israeli communications and surveillance equipment over the last week of fighting.

CTP-ISW previously noted that these LH attacks create opportunities for further operations against Israel.

LH is allowing Palestinian militias to continue attacks from southern Lebanon into Israel. The al Qassem Brigades branch in Lebanon said on October 19 that its militants fired 30 rockets at western Israel.

CTP-ISW recorded rocket barrages fired toward both western and eastern Israel, however. The IDF disclosed that LH gave the al Qassem Brigades permission to the fire rockets from Lebanon.

This reporting is consistent with CTP-ISW’s previous assessment that LH probably approves attacks from southern Lebanon into Israel given the extent to which LH controls southern Lebanon.

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Old 20th Oct 2023, 08:18
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Reference the question as too whether attacks on Israel had ceased. Just one days worth.

ISW: https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ctober-19-2023

Palestinian militias continued indirect fire from the Gaza Strip into Israel on October 19.

The al Qassem Brigades—Hamas’ militant wing—claimed responsibility for 15 mortar and rocket attacks.

Saraya al Quds—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed responsibility for another eight rocket attacks.

The al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades—the self-claimed militant wing of Fatah—claimed two rocket attacks.

The National Resistance Brigades—the militant wing of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine—claimed one mortar attack on an IDF military base in southern Israel.
Without wishing to trivialise the ongoing horror, this is somewhat reminiscent of the People Front of Judea vs the Judean Peoples Front.......
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