Afghanistan 2021 Onwards

[NutLoose]

Looks like they are also going to be cash strapped for a while.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/taliban-no...133932978.html

[Chipzilla]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Looks like they are also going to be cash strapped for a while.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/taliban-no...133932978.html

Doubt it. They're sitting on $1trillion of minerals including lithium (used for making batteries), which China will be interested in.

https://qz.com/2047785/under-the-tal...tans-minerals/

[Ninthace]

Originally Posted by Chipzilla

Doubt it. They're sitting on $1trillion of minerals including lithium (used for making batteries), which China will be interested in.

https://qz.com/2047785/under-the-tal...tans-minerals/

Did you read that article to the end?

[Chipzilla]

Originally Posted by Ninthace

Did you read that article to the end?

I did. Do you have a specific concern about the article?

[Ninthace]

From your post

They're sitting on $1trillion of minerals including lithium which China will be interested in

From the article

Competing factions within the Taliban would make it very difficult for any company to negotiate mining deals, and China is unlikely to extend to the group the scale of infrastructure loans that would be required to bring any sizeable mining operations online

That’s especially true after Chinese investors got burned on a $3 billion copper mining project in Afghanistan, started in 2007, that failed to produce anything, largely because of challenges related to the lack of infrastructure.

As long as there are safer and more reliable sources elsewhere, full utilization of Afghan minerals is likely to remain slow,

The implication from the article being the Chinese are unlikely to be interested in the short to medium term

[MPN11]

Originally Posted by Ninthace

The implication from the article being the Chinese are unlikely to be interested in the short to medium term

However, unlike most Western democracies, China does do “Long Term”. Most of the West thinks little further than the next Election, an issue not facing China!

[Ninthace]

Originally Posted by MPN11

However, unlike most Western democracies, China does do “Long Term”. Most of the West thinks little further than the next Election, an issue not facing China!

No argument with that but your post was in response to

Nutloose: Looks like they are also going to be cash strapped for a while.

To which you replied:

Doubt it. They're sitting on $1trillion of minerals including lithium (used for making batteries), which China will be interested in.

That implies a short term response from the Chinese. Now you are opting for the long game argument. With respect, you can't have it both ways. That is why I asked if you had read the article through as it suggests a long term rather than short term development of Afghan mineral resources. There just is not the infrastructure for anything else and the Chinese are unlikely to advance funds having been stiffed once already.

[ORAC]

However, unlike most Western democracies, China does do “Long Term”.

I do wish people would stop repeating this meme - it’s like claiming the Egyptians do long term planning because of the Pharaohs or the Italians because of the Roman Empire.

What we now call China has had many empires/dynasties lead by different invading civilisations. Now of which are relevant to the present leadership.

The history of the last 70 years from the civil war, to Mao’s Great Leap Forward, to the Cultural Revolution, to the change to a capitalistic economic system, to a one child policy into a screeching brake-turn to a 3 child policy do not suggest a system looking towards the long term. If anything it suggests a hangover toward the old Soviet “5 Year Plan” system.

The same can be seen in the other plans such as the environmental disastrous planning including highlights such as Mao’s “Four Pests” campaign through to the Three Gorges dam and others. China is a water starved nation, always has been, and now they rapidly increasing their use of water in agriculture and industry. No long term planning there either.

[RAFEngO74to09]

It now emerges that the C-17A with the 640 PAX was swarmed - not loaded under direction.

Also, there is a video out there taken from inside the aircraft - which I'm not going to link - of a C-17A flying along with a dead body flapping against the closed undercarriage nacelle (part inside).

USAF conducting investigation into what transpired over the past few days - Pentagon spox stated this morning may get update drom USAF today.

[Davef68]

Originally Posted by ORAC

China is a water starved nation, always has been, and now they rapidly increasing they’re use of water in agriculture and industry. No long term planning there either.

An old strategic studies lecturer of my acquaintance said the third world war would be fought over water.

What they probably need is a neighbouring country/region with high sided valleys that could be dammed and water piped to China. I wonder if they have any neighbours that could be ripe for Chinese influence?

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by RAFEngO74to09

It now emerges that the C-17A with the 640 PAX was swarmed - not loaded under direction.

Also, there is a video out there taken from inside the aircraft - which I'm not going to link - of a C-17A flying along with a dead body flapping against the closed undercarriage nacelle (part inside).

USAF conducting investigation into what transpired over the past few days - Pentagon spox stated this morning may get update drom USAF today.

Hmmmmm the Daily Fail has put it on their site

..

[Ninthace]

Looks like an accommodation has been reached with the Taliban to control Kabul Airport. From the BBC:

Some calm has been restored to Kabul airport after the chaos of yesterday – when desperate Afghans crowded the runway preventing planes from taking off. Along with the arrival of hundreds more troops, more military flights have been landing and departing. The US says it soon aims to fly out more than 5,000 people a day – and the UK up to 1,000. The British evacuation is being overseen by Vice Admiral Sir Ben Key, who estimates at least 6,000 UK nationals and Afghans who worked for the British are now waiting to leave. Though he says many will still have to make their own way to the airport past Taliban checkpoints.

"They are now controlling all of the access points around the airport so at a tactical level around the gates we are having to have a practical engagement with the Taliban commanders," he said.

"We're only a day and a half into this new situation, they have seemed acquiescent and understanding of what we're trying to achieve," he added.

There are reports that some Afghans are still finding it hard to get past Taliban checkpoints. Others are in hiding waiting to find out if they'll be given visas to fly out. And it's still not clear how long this escape route will remain open. That largely depends on the Taliban, who've set a deadline of 11 September for all foreign troops to leave.

The window of opportunity is closing fast.

[langleybaston]

Originally Posted by Ninthace

I was taught it in theory many moons ago. I think it dates from Aden if not before and was in the context of the Riot Act or its local equivalent, rather than as a means of crowd control, and needed sign off from a legal authority.
These days things have moved on. I believe crowd control is now actively taught and practised as part of deployment training.
Actions would be determined by ROE. Circumstances under which you may open fire are very restricted. Fairly sure they do not include firing into the air or at unarmed civilians. American ROE are almost certainly different.

Thank you very much. Perhaps razor wire and the right gloves and training would have been an answer, but the perimeter must be miles ...... one for the loggies and engineers.

But was is an admiral doing i/c? Beachmaster at Dunkirk?

[ORAC]

I wonder how much support they’ll get once the evacuation is over. The Biden administration doubtless won’t - but there may be other Charlie Wilson’s and various agencies willing to do so…..

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a...iban-kcn50btsh

Afghan vice-president vows to fight on against Taliban

The vice-president of Afghanistan has vowed to fight on and declared himself the caretaker leader of the country.

Amrullah Saleh, who holds the title of first vice-president, cited the Afghan constitution to support his claims, despite Taliban forces storming Kabul and forcing President Ghani to flee the country.

Saleh, 48, tweeted: “As per d constitution of Afg, in absence, escape, resignation or death of the President the FVP becomes the caretaker President. I am currently inside my country & am the legitimate care taker President. Am reaching out to all leaders to secure their support & consensus.”

Saleh fled on Sunday to the Panjshir valley, a mountainous redoubt tucked into the Hindu Kush that never fell to the Taliban during the civil war of the 1990s; nor was it conquered by the Soviet Union a decade earlier.

The first vice-president and Ahmad Massoud, the son of his former mentor and famed anti-Taliban fighter Ahmed Shah Massoud, are putting together a guerrilla movement in the valley, less than 100 miles from Kabul.

Unconfirmed reports added that thousands of Afghans from neighbouring provinces had fled to Panjshir, which is renowned for its natural defences. Such a battle would be the latest episode in Saleh’s long struggle against the Taliban as a one-time insurgent turned spy chief and later vice-premier.

Video emerged today showing Massoud boarding a military helicopter accompanied by a heavily armed entourage. At least 15 people can be seen boarding.

It was not immediately clear from the video if Saleh was on the flight with Massoud, although they were later pictured meeting in the Panjshir region to plan a counteroffensive.

Saleh has vowed not to surrender to the Taliban, writing on Twitter on Sunday: “I won’t dis-appoint millions who listened to me. I will never be under one ceiling with Taliban. NEVER”.

He called on his followers today to “join the resistance”, arguing that “it is futile to argue with [President Biden] on Afghanistan now”. He said supporters “must prove” to the US that Afghanistan “isn’t Vietnam” and the Taliban “aren’t even remotely like Vietcong”.

[ORAC]

Biden also seems to be haemorrhaging support after his speech - even, or perhaps especially, from with his own party and Democratic voters.

The article goes on to cover the outrage amongst current and past military leaders over trying to place the sole blame upon the Afghan army…

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/j...stan-6kg09ps6h

Joe Biden faces backlash over US Afghanistan withdrawal

President Biden’s unrepentant defence of the military withdrawal from Afghanistan was met with a wave of criticism as he vowed that the buck stopped with him, only to blame an array of others.

Biden said that he stood “squarely behind my decision” and that he could not send more Americans to die “in a war that Afghan forces are not willing to fight”. His speech drew damning responses from the foreign policy and military establishment, as well as prominent Republicans and politicians from his own party.

“The president’s failure to acknowledge his disastrous withdrawal provides no comfort to Americans or our Afghan partners whose lives hang in the balance,” the moderate Republican senator Mitt Romney, a bitter opponent of Donald Trump, tweeted…..

The Wall Street Journal described Biden’s speech as “one of the most shameful in history by a commander-in-chief”.

The president also faced friendly fire from his own side. Chrissy Houlahan, a Democratic congresswoman and air force veteran, challenged Biden’s assertion that the pace of the Taliban’s response was surprising. “We sounded the alarm and our dire warnings fell on deaf ears,” she said.

Tom Malinowski, a Democratic congressman and director of Human Rights Watch at the time of the Afghanistan invasion, fumed about Biden’s assertion that Afghan civilians had not wanted to leave before now. “Anyone writing goddamn talking points should get in the visa line,” he said.

David Axelrod, a former senior adviser to Barack Obama, said that the president could double down all he wanted on the decision but “you cannot defend the execution here”, adding: “This has been a disaster. He needs to own that failure. He’s the commander-in-chief.”…..

[albatross]

What ever happened to “Plan for the worst, hope for the best”.
There should have been a “Rapid Taliban Victory” case scenario evacuation plan with assets in place.
Perhaps they should have evacuated some folks even before the departure of the troops.
Of course I am using 20/20 hindsight but I thought “This won’t go well.” when they first announced the departure. I thought the Afgan troops would be quickly overwhelmed.
I sincerely hope they don’t lose a heavily laden aircraft in this operation.

[SLXOwft]

Originally Posted by langleybaston

Thank you very much. Perhaps razor wire and the right gloves and training would have been an answer, but the perimeter must be miles ...... one for the loggies and engineers.

But was is an admiral doing i/c? Beachmaster at Dunkirk?

LB, Vice Admiral Key is Chief of Joint Operations, so I assume is 'running the operation' means oversight from Northwood. IM(H)O, CJO is the obvious choice for a high profile purple operation. Makes me feel less old seeing a serving flag officer who is nearly the same age as me.

Is it just me that thinks it is refreshing to see the responsible VSO front and centre, and not someone more junior who is being lined up to carry the can if the operation goes tits up?

[Easy Street]

ORAC, #299: Biden is probably not in the least worried. Routine domestic politics will quickly drag his own side back into line, and if it doesn't then next year's elections certainly will. And he has plenty enough time before the 2024 election to hold an Afghanistan Inquiry which will expose mendacity, incompetence, or both, in the defence and foreign policy establishments. Most of the evidence has already been published, in SIGAR reports stretching back 13 years and the Inspector's testimony to Congress. It just needs to be given a public airing without being spun and obfuscated. Biden will then have his very own "drain the swamp" narrative with which to appeal to swing voters. And there's already enough evidence of the Taliban having been poised to take over that, if challenged on his decision, Biden will be able to say "it was withdraw, or re-escalate". The facts will be on his side.

I think what we're hearing now is the reaction of the Washington establishment to an elected President *finally* asserting democratic control of defence and foreign policy, after unchallenged technocracy stretching back decades. The "blob" now has a limited window of opportunity to throw mud at Biden in the hope that he changes tack. Once the botched withdrawal drops off the news agenda, its influence will wane rapidly and Army spending (in particular) will come under huge pressure for the next couple of election cycles. Hence the panicked commentary.

Biden's blunt approach, eschewing the usual diplomatic subtleties, speaks directly to US voters. His refusal to take questions and remain aloof at Camp David seems intended to provoke the "blob" into such a frenzy that the voters will be able to work out for themselves what's going on. Meanwhile if (as the commentary goes) allies and partners around the world are genuinely concerned that US security assurances have been undermined by Biden's approach, then we'll see urgent strategic reviews and increases in defence spending all over the West to compensate. Spoiler: ain't gonna happen.

[RAFEngO74to09]

There is a USAF investigation ongoing into the breach of security on the C-17A that clearly either didn't have attached AT Sy or it was inadequate. Not only did 640 people storm aboard but some of them did it while the aircraft was taxying with the rear ramp still partly open. Personally I found that strange when USAF Security Forces is the largest career field with over 55,000 personnel.

Somewhere between 10,000 and 15,000 US citizens are stranded in Kabul - most of them not at the airport.

By comparison, here are a couple of videos of the way the UK handled UK citizens and entitled Afghans - AT Sy on each aircraft and orderly loading:

How Is The UK Military Getting People Out Of Afghanistan? - YouTube

Leading a 12 person movements team Kabul, Afghanistan - YouTube

[RAFEngO74to09]

I do not agree with the non-US citizens commenting here on how bad or not this debacle is for Biden.

When you look at the totality of the errors - ignoring military advice, not consulting allies, events which he said only days ago would not happen actually happening, not taking responsibility, blaming everyone else, not taking all the necessary steps to ensure US citizens are evacuated, loss of US prestige, allies wondering whether they can rely on the US umbrella - the list goes on.

The entire debacle would have been avoided if Bagram had been retained for an orderly drawdown with all the required FP in place. Instead, having abandoned Bagram in the middle of the night and abandoned all the FP vehicles, he then had to send 6,000 troops to Kabul Airport (later increased) who still aren't all there yet.

Both impeachment and removal under Article 25 of the Constitution are being talked about now.

As of the State Department presser today, he hadn't even spoken to any world leaders since the debacle started to unfold over the weekend. Minutes ago it was announced he had just spoken to Boris - but I suspect that was initiated by Boris who was taking the initiative on having a G7 teleconference.

US citizens signing up for exit are getting a return e-mail saying they're on their own getting to Kabul Airport.

Here is some straight talking from host Fox News host Dan Bongino (former Secret Service agent) and contributor USMC veteran EOD Tech Joey Jones who lost both legs in Afghanistan:

You Tube

Prime Time Mon 16 August:

You Tube