ORAC, #299: Biden is probably not in the least worried. Routine domestic politics will quickly drag his own side back into line, and if it doesn't then next year's elections certainly will. And he has plenty enough time before the 2024 election to hold an Afghanistan Inquiry which will expose mendacity, incompetence, or both, in the defence and foreign policy establishments. Most of the evidence has already been published, in SIGAR reports stretching back 13 years and the Inspector's testimony to Congress. It just needs to be given a public airing without being spun and obfuscated. Biden will then have his very own "drain the swamp" narrative with which to appeal to swing voters. And there's already enough evidence of the Taliban having been poised to take over that, if challenged on his decision, Biden will be able to say "it was withdraw, or re-escalate". The facts will be on his side.
I think what we're hearing now is the reaction of the Washington establishment to an elected President *finally* asserting democratic control of defence and foreign policy, after unchallenged technocracy stretching back decades. The "blob" now has a limited window of opportunity to throw mud at Biden in the hope that he changes tack. Once the botched withdrawal drops off the news agenda, its influence will wane rapidly and Army spending (in particular) will come under huge pressure for the next couple of election cycles. Hence the panicked commentary.
Biden's blunt approach, eschewing the usual diplomatic subtleties, speaks directly to US voters. His refusal to take questions and remain aloof at Camp David seems intended to provoke the "blob" into such a frenzy that the voters will be able to work out for themselves what's going on. Meanwhile if (as the commentary goes) allies and partners around the world are genuinely concerned that US security assurances have been undermined by Biden's approach, then we'll see urgent strategic reviews and increases in defence spending all over the West to compensate. Spoiler: ain't gonna happen.