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North Korea!

Old 6th Sep 2017, 18:12
  #381 (permalink)  
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We can buy the latest and greatest S-400 (or 500) from Russia
Never let a crisis go to waste.
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Old 6th Sep 2017, 19:00
  #382 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by West Coast View Post
Never let a crisis go to waste.
I'm sure the Chinese would fully respect Russia's intellectual property rights in this regard. No Peking inside!
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Old 6th Sep 2017, 19:02
  #383 (permalink)  
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Has anyone pointed out that it's nigh on impossible for the Norks to test their long-range missiles without them flying over someone? Just saying..
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Old 6th Sep 2017, 20:16
  #384 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Photonic View Post
Aside from a natural desire not to have another superpower's military right on your borders (remember the Cuban Missile Crisis?), I think the main reason China doesn't want a unified Korea is that their big near-term ambition is to replace the US as the dominant Naval power in the region. They're also trying to expand offshore territorial boundaries to lock up mineral and fishing rights, like those artificial island projects in the South China Sea.

A unified Korea might mean an even larger US Navy presence with access to more Korean ports, along with conflicts involving mineral and fishing rights with a unified Korea. So it may be more about what's happening offshore, than worrying about US tanks on the border with China.
Some interesting points for me to think about, thank you.
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Old 7th Sep 2017, 05:47
  #385 (permalink)  
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Old 7th Sep 2017, 16:07
  #386 (permalink)  
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dead pan,

Yes, they have to fly over somebody (China, Russia, Japan or SK). But the latest test (flying over Hokkaido) showed that Japanese skies are free. Just one more resolution from UN which they obviously consider a peanut gallery. I would not be surprised that the same very corridor would be later used to "play brackets" with Hawaii (nearly the same launch azimuth).
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Old 10th Sep 2017, 15:02
  #387 (permalink)  
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Old 14th Sep 2017, 12:40
  #388 (permalink)  
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North Korea: How real is Seoul's assassination threat? - BBC News
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Old 14th Sep 2017, 22:49
  #389 (permalink)  
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Pine Gap here... he's just squirted off another missile.
"The Security Council utterly condemns and calls for..."
So - bets on how long before Japan nukes up...
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Old 14th Sep 2017, 23:09
  #390 (permalink)  
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Do these damned sanctions actually do any good?

Or do they simple cause a retrenchment and independent spirit of defiance?

A rather intelligent documentary series a decade ago gave a rather insightful look into the psychology of such matters, in three parts.

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Old 14th Sep 2017, 23:29
  #391 (permalink)  
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South Korea: North Korea launched missile over Japan - CNNPolitics
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Old 15th Sep 2017, 01:37
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Pretty profound series of films Caz.
Thanks for posting.
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Old 15th Sep 2017, 14:43
  #393 (permalink)  
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Has no-one whispered the principles of MAD in to Kim Jong-un's shell-like - or has he just failed to grasp them?
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Old 15th Sep 2017, 15:49
  #394 (permalink)  
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As a bit of “what-aboutery”, here’s an alternative possible hypothesis;

Kim has distanced himself and DPRK from the control of China, this for the Chinese is less that acceptable in their back yard as it reduces their comfort about both the stability of the peninsula and the certainty of a buffer from the "forces of democracy" in South Korea..

Either by accident or design, the west is now pushing China to reign in NK.

This presents China with an opportunity.

While the North Korean’s are looking south and east, China invades from the north and west … toppling the Kim dynasty and replacing it with a more agreeable regime. On the way out, in order to assure future compliance, the PLA establish a base or two including a naval presence on the Korean east coast, along the Sea of Japan, something China currently lacks.

What does China gain? i) A chance to test its military capability, ii) removes a burdensome nuisance on its southern flank, iii) presents itself as helping the rest of the world, iv) believes it has stabilised the DPRK (it could even go as far as taking steps to improve the lot of the average citizen) and v) gains a strategic base or two along the way.

Not quite the Win-Win the West might have hoped for, but still, a problem removed.

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Old 15th Sep 2017, 18:56
  #395 (permalink)  
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Interesting perspactive, Just a spotter.

Although ... would China want to become an overt aggressor, despite your reasonable outline, when it's World trade is so important?
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Old 15th Sep 2017, 20:07
  #396 (permalink)  
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Perhaps George W Bush had the right answer to threats from Pakistan - 'I'll send your whole country back to the Middle Ages.'

For N. Korea - One more step and nuke them!!
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Old 15th Sep 2017, 21:08
  #397 (permalink)  
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Forgive my naivety, being a civvie, but why can't we (or the Americans, or even the Russians if they want to) use a covert special forces team to assassinate the North Korean leader? Or use satellites, spies, etc to pinpoint his location and take him out with a well aimed precision strike?

Or am I in the realms of fantasy there? But if I am, why? Surely with our (the 'West') resources and technology, it must be possible to do something like that, especially as he doesn't seem to hide himself in caves or underground like terrorist leaders.
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Old 15th Sep 2017, 21:26
  #398 (permalink)  
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I would like to see the US Navy engage and destroy a missile once it had cleared Japanese or South Korean territory - but not reveal their action. The North Koreans can't have radar coverage so far from land so they could think their missile was at fault. The question this raises is - what would they do next? Step up launches or not?
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Old 15th Sep 2017, 22:34
  #399 (permalink)  
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UN=League of Nations
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Old 16th Sep 2017, 01:10
  #400 (permalink)  
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China invades from the north and west
unless your belief is a couple of border guards with sidearms will stealthily remove the fat wun, do you believe the Norks won't somehow notice the build up of forces on their border? You think the Norks haven't noticed the degrading relationship with the Chinese? The Chinese have been on the receiving end of NK propaganda, so they are willing to bite the hand that feeds them.

Knowing that your idea would require a significant build up of forces to assure success, which would attract attention, do you think the fat wun wouldn't unleash his nuclear fury on the Chinese if he believed they were intent on unseating him? What's to stop him?
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