North Korea!
I personally think all this talk of either an ICBM strike or a nuclear exchange is way overblown.
Firing a liquid fueled rocket in peacetime is one thing - on a war footing a lot more difficult - without being hit first.
What guarantee is there that even a conventional warhead on a Hwasong 12 would survive re-entry - seems there was a wide variation of views on just what those Japanese CCTV cameras saw.
They may have developed a miniaturised nuclear warhead, but have they successfully launched it and verified it's stayed intact and functioning before destroying it in flight?
How do we know that even a non-miniature North Korean nuclear weapon would even function as required in a real world setting rather than the controlled underground tests we've seen so far?
What's their quality control like?
I think what's far more likely is a short (maybe a few days to a week) really nasty conventional conflict.
A few dud Scud type shots launched at Tokyo and Guam.
The Northern suburbs of Seoul pounded for a few hours by artillery and other SK cities targeted by SRBMs.
Until they were eliminated en masse by conventional US airstrikes, and US and SK ground forces.
Would the Chinese really intervene at that point or before, or after?
Somehow, despite all the statements, I doubt it.
I don't think they'd use nukes in response to a massive American conventional strike.
And it's then that the real uncertainty starts... almost as difficult as the conflict... is what follows.
Firing a liquid fueled rocket in peacetime is one thing - on a war footing a lot more difficult - without being hit first.
What guarantee is there that even a conventional warhead on a Hwasong 12 would survive re-entry - seems there was a wide variation of views on just what those Japanese CCTV cameras saw.
They may have developed a miniaturised nuclear warhead, but have they successfully launched it and verified it's stayed intact and functioning before destroying it in flight?
How do we know that even a non-miniature North Korean nuclear weapon would even function as required in a real world setting rather than the controlled underground tests we've seen so far?
What's their quality control like?
I think what's far more likely is a short (maybe a few days to a week) really nasty conventional conflict.
A few dud Scud type shots launched at Tokyo and Guam.
The Northern suburbs of Seoul pounded for a few hours by artillery and other SK cities targeted by SRBMs.
Until they were eliminated en masse by conventional US airstrikes, and US and SK ground forces.
Would the Chinese really intervene at that point or before, or after?
Somehow, despite all the statements, I doubt it.
I don't think they'd use nukes in response to a massive American conventional strike.
And it's then that the real uncertainty starts... almost as difficult as the conflict... is what follows.
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Ahh yes, the allies will agree an end state to this intervention. everyone will stop at the 39th parallel.
Just like the last big brouhaha.. some will, some won't, and another cold war will result. That's if there's anything left.
Imagegear
Just like the last big brouhaha.. some will, some won't, and another cold war will result. That's if there's anything left.
Imagegear
I personally think all this talk of either an ICBM strike or a nuclear exchange is way overblown.
One thing I have wondered is if they have a limited stock of Ukranian engines, rather than having successfully reverse engineered them and made their own.
Security Council to meet later on this.
How many UN Communiques can a man take before he breaks down and gives up? 
Oh, the humanity!
(Oh, wait, the number approaches infinity asymptotically ...)
Oh, the humanity! (Oh, wait, the number approaches infinity asymptotically ...)
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If the missile indeed flew over Hokkaido, then all this sounds disappointing. Kim might feel more and more confident that he could progressively increase the distance in that direction laughing at and sh...ing on Japan from above. I wonder if any real warning (forget about UN blah-blah) would be issued? I.e. drawing a clear red line for him beyond which his missiles would be intercepted.
No teeth (read AeGIS+SM3)? No balls?
No teeth (read AeGIS+SM3)? No balls?
My bet is a lack of political will to be perceived as escalating the situation, not an issue with the ability to intercept the incoming missile.
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Can't help thinking this situation is like The Life of Brian . . .
Fatty Un does something and 'John Cleese' invokes an extraordinary meeting of the Peoples' Liberation Front of Judea (aka the UN).
It's not funny, but it really doesn't cut the mustard when the rest of the world 'condemn' Fatty Un, he really doesn't give a sh*t what everyone else thinks.
It's a no-win situation for the politicians/military with a potentially bad outcome or a worse one. Personally I don't think a peaceful outcome is possible as nobody in NK can actually tell Fatty Un it's going to end in tears without being fed to the dogs.
Where's the Neutron bomb when you need it . . .
Fatty Un does something and 'John Cleese' invokes an extraordinary meeting of the Peoples' Liberation Front of Judea (aka the UN).
It's not funny, but it really doesn't cut the mustard when the rest of the world 'condemn' Fatty Un, he really doesn't give a sh*t what everyone else thinks.
It's a no-win situation for the politicians/military with a potentially bad outcome or a worse one. Personally I don't think a peaceful outcome is possible as nobody in NK can actually tell Fatty Un it's going to end in tears without being fed to the dogs.
Where's the Neutron bomb when you need it . . .
Where is China when you need it?
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The rumours circulated for some years that N-Koreans indeed had smuggled smth from Ukraine. Three topics/options were addressed: a) complete technical documentation was stolen that allowed NK to greatly accelerate engineering and production processes, b) some real engines were illegally imported (some even wrote about the routes through middle east), c) NK hired Ukrainian engineers that lost their jobs when the country stopped support to plants in Dnepropetrovsk (now Dnepr).
IMHO option a) is very realistic. Even higher management of the Yuzhmash in Dnepr recently assumed that the leak of documentation likely happened. Two NK spies were caught and now in prison, but how many were not caught, nobody knows. Option b) seems not so likely to me because the entire Ukraine is for a long time under tight control of CIA and the latter would prevent any deal of that kind. Option c) seems very realistic. Controlling people is a much more difficult task than large hardware items. The guys might leave their home country for a vacation in UAE or Turkey and then escape to Far East.