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Iran

Old 6th April 2026 | 13:54
  #4941 (permalink)  
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From: Peripatetic
​​​​​​​Bomber Mission 56 - Superhero B-1s #FreeIran!

--- Operation EPIC FURY ---

Yesterday's (5th April 2026) second bomber mission from RAF Fairford (EGVA) was a group of 3x B-1B "Lancer" in the afternoon, which arrived back in UK airspace a short while ago. While their outbound tanker support went undetected, their return support from Bucharest (LROP) was visible on tracking apps!......

Mission LVI
B-1B "KENO95" 86-0129
#AE6C02 "The Black Widow"
B-1B "KENO96" 85-0069
#AE6BD0 "Avenger"
B-1B "KENO97" 86-0134
#AE6C05 "Thunderbird"

(outbound tankers not ID'd)
KC-135R "CLEAN45" 58-0079
#AE0383 (From LROP)
KC-135R "CLEAN46" 58-0106
#AE04BE (From LROP)
KC-135R "CLEAN47" 59-1448
#AE047C (From LROP)
KC-135R "CLEAN48" 60-0341
#AE0363 (From LROP)
KC-135R "CLEAN49" 58-0073
#AE047A (From LROP)

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Old 6th April 2026 | 13:57
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From: Peripatetic
Who gets to claim the bounty?
IRGC Public Relations confirms the death of Brigadier General Majid Khademi, Commander of the IRGC Intelligence Organization. He also commanded the Intelligence Protection Organization.

He was killed in a strike on his residence this morning.

Khademi partook in security and intelligence roles for 47 years. He served as Commander of the Information Protection Organization of the Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Support between 2018-2022. In 2022 he was appointed to lead the Intelligence Protection Organization of the IRGC. He assumed command of the IRGC Intelligence Organization in June 2025 following the Israeli strike that killed his predecessor, Mohammad Kazemi.

The US State Department had a $10 million bounty on his head.

Moreover, the same Israeli strike on Tehran killed Yazdan Mir (alias Sardar Bagheri), commander of Unit 840, a clandestine operations unit in the IRGC's Quds Force.

The unit conducts kidnapping, assassination, intelligence collection, and covert operations abroad with support from the foreign cells they recruited. They have operational branches in the Caucasus, Central Asia, Middle East, North and East Africa, Europe, Latin America, and the US.

​​​​​​​Mir was sanctioned by the US Treasury Department in 2020. His deputy, Hassan Sayyad Khodayari, was killed by Israel in 2022.

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Old 6th April 2026 | 14:12
  #4943 (permalink)  
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From: Peripatetic
................
srael Defense Minister Israel Katz:

"The IDF has now powerfully attacked the largest petrochemical facility in Iran, which is located in Islava.

"Now the two facilities, which together are responsible for about 85% of Iran's petrochemical exports - have been put out of use and are not functioning."
​​​​​​​BREAKING: Fars News Agency reported explosions at the South Pars Petrochemical Complex in Asaluyeh within the hour.

Israeli Defense Minister Katz claimed the strike immediately. “The IDF has just powerfully struck the largest petrochemical facility in Iran.”

Combined with last week’s destruction of the Fajr 1 and Fajr 2 utility plants at Mahshahr, which shut more than 50 downstream facilities by cutting their electricity, water, and oxygen supply simultaneously, Katz declared 85 percent of Iran’s petrochemical production and exports now offline. He called it a “fatal blow to the IRGC’s financial artery” and cited $18 billion in petrochemical revenue to the Revolutionary Guard over the past two years.

The number matters. But the chemistry matters more. This is not an economic strike. It is a feedstock strike. The distinction is the insight nobody has stated clearly.

A petrochemical plant produces methanol, ethylene, propylene, urea, and ammonia for export. It also produces the chemical intermediaries that become ammonium perchlorate, hydroxyl-terminated polybutadiene, and nitric acid, the components of solid rocket motor propellant. The same facility that earns $9 billion a year for the IRGC also synthesises the chemistry that fills the missiles the IRGC fires from granite tunnels 500 metres underground.

When Israel destroys the plant, it does not merely reduce revenue. It severs the domestic chemical supply chain that connects a gas field to a warhead. The revenue and the reload are the same molecule at different stages of processing.

Iran’s underground missile cities hold an estimated 1,000 missiles. The launchers survive inside granite that no bunker-buster can reach. But a launcher without propellant is a metal tube. The missiles in those tunnels need fuel. The fuel needs precursors. The precursors came from the plants that are now on fire.

China has shipped sodium perchlorate on four vessels from Gaolan to compensate. But four ships of imported precursor cannot replace the output of two industrial complexes that processed gas from the world’s largest natural gas field directly into the chemicals that powered Iran’s missile programme. The underground war depends on the above-ground chemistry. Israel just turned off the chemistry.

The strike on Asaluyeh targeted the Mobin and Damavand utility companies, which supplied electricity, water, and oxygen to the entire complex. Some Iranian reports claim the core Pars Petrochemical plant remains “intact and undamaged.”

That may be true. It is also irrelevant. A petrochemical plant without electricity, water, and oxygen does not produce chemicals. It is a collection of pipes and vessels waiting for inputs that no longer arrive. The Israeli doctrine is not to flatten every building. It is to sever the utilities that make every building functional. One precision strike on a power substation shuts 50 plants. The efficiency is the point.

Mahshahr produced 72 million tonnes annually before the war. Iran’s total output reached 75.2 million tonnes in 2024. Polyethylene prices on the Dalian exchange are up 37 percent since February. Polypropylene up 38 percent.

The Borouge facility in Abu Dhabi is offline from intercepted missile debris. Now Iran’s own petrochemical output, which fed Asian polymer markets through shadow fleet channels, has been destroyed by the country whose cities those same chemicals were being used to attack.....

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Old 6th April 2026 | 14:22
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​​​​​​​Extensive damage to key energy infrastructure across the UAE.

Sentinel-2L satellite imagery from yesterday shows fires burning across at least three major oil and gas sites in the UAE Asab, Bu Hasa, and Habshan following reported Iranian strikes.



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Old 6th April 2026 | 14:34
  #4945 (permalink)  
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From: Peripatetic
Bomber Mission 55 - BUFFs again #FreeIran!

--- Operation EPIC FURY ---

Yesterday's (5th April 2026) first bomber mission from RAF Fairford (EGVA) was a pair of B-52H "Stratofortress" using callsign "BEZEL" flight. They returned in the very early hours of this morning. Once again, tankers involved were difficult to identify although we did pick up some callsigns which *might* have been from Sofia (LBSF).

Mission LV
B-52H "BEZEL65" 60-0060
#AE5895 "Iron Butterfly"
B-52H "BEZEL66" 61-0020
#AE58A9 "The Big Stick"

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Old 6th April 2026 | 14:41
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From: Cluedo
Being reported in numerous press outlets that ceasefire talks are ongoing.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...srael-iran-war

Including possibly a 45 day ceasefire. Trump to speak at a press conference at 1pm ET (6PM BST).
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Old 6th April 2026 | 14:48
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From: Peripatetic
That will be the border with the Kurds?

​​​​​​​Tonight in Ahvaz, Khuzestan province, a US-Israeli strike destroyed much of Iran’s 92nd Armoured Division.

The 92nd is the country’s only proper armoured formation and the unit responsible for patrolling the Iraqi border.

This is highly significant.....
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Old 6th April 2026 | 14:57
  #4948 (permalink)  
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From: Near the coast
Ceasefire talks

Originally Posted by Professor Plum
Being reported in numerous press outlets that ceasefire talks are ongoing.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...srael-iran-war

Including possibly a 45 day ceasefire. Trump to speak at a press conference at 1pm ET (6PM BST).
It probably won’t help matters then that Israel has just blown up Iran’s largest petrochemical site?!

BV
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Old 6th April 2026 | 15:02
  #4949 (permalink)  
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From: Falling off the end of the thread
It does look like this prop was turning, but I have my doubts, when you burn the resin out the carbon fibre stands will sag with gravity.

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Old 6th April 2026 | 15:06
  #4950 (permalink)  
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Iranian aircraft being wiped out...... again..... Is this the 3rd time they've been wiped out or the 4th? I lost track.

Video of ground kills.
​​​​​​​The IDF says it carried out a large-scale strike on Tehran airports, targeting dozens of Iranian Air Force and Revolutionary Guards aircraft, including planes and helicopters, as well as military infrastructure.

Attacks hit Behram, Mehrabad, and Azmaysh airports, further degrading Iran’s aerial capabilities, the military says.
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Old 6th April 2026 | 15:10
  #4951 (permalink)  
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From: Peripatetic
​​​​​​​Iran has rejected the Pakistani-led ceasefire proposal

-IRNA Iran has delivered a 10-paragraph response and list of demands, including a permanent end to the war, a new agreement on the Strait of Hormuz, war reparations payments from the US, and the lifting of sanctions.

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Old 6th April 2026 | 15:18
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From: Baston
Originally Posted by Bob Viking
It probably won’t help matters then that Israel has just blown up Iran’s largest petrochemical site?!

BV
Interesting.
Assuming rashly that all parties can each speak with one voice, which 'side' wants / needs a ceasefire more? 'Wants' and 'Needs' may not be congruent of course.
My vote would be Iran, which has and is taking a fearful hammering. The evidence is that Iran is better than the US [but perhaps not Israel] at the long game. Especially considering US leadership which defies my understanding minute by minute.
A ceasefire would spare or limit further suffering which has to be the greater good.

Last edited by langleybaston; 6th April 2026 at 15:20. Reason: brevity
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Old 6th April 2026 | 15:22
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From: Europe
Originally Posted by ORAC
................



Iran vs USA/Israel and proxies/bystanders plus the simultaneous conflict of Russia vs Ukraine is leading to interesting times in the energy game.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/2...487985104.html

It used to be that oil over $100/bbl was highly correlated with global recessions. The last pre-Hormuz loadings are nearing their voyage destinations, so physical consequences are about to become reality.

A lot of the stuff that is now being hit has rebuild times of many months to many years. So even if Hormuz gets reopened the consequences will be around for quite a while. Both in the upstream and the downstream.

In the short term (2026) a factor that will delay the worst effects is that we are entering northern hemisphere Summer. Aircon loads are at least highly correlated with solar PV output.

Chinese solar manufacturing should have a bumper year, again. And all countries' wind manufacturing, excepting USA of course where they seem to be trying to turn the clock back on themselves as well as on Iran.

As one might expect, used EV prices are rising on the forecourt.
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Old 6th April 2026 | 15:25
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From: 3rd Rock, #29B
Originally Posted by NutLoose
It does look like this prop was turning, but I have my doubts, when you burn the resin out the carbon fibre stands will sag with gravity.

https://x.com/StunnedD1/status/20407...885347/photo/1
Composites do not act in the traditional manner that alloy props do. Bending back of aluminium blades indicates rotation and low power, bend forward, suggests power is applied to the prop at impact. Carbon will lose its shape when the epoxy that forms its matrix burns or goes past its melting point. The Hercs R391 props do not show evidence of rotation. CFRP on impact tends to look like a yard broom end, (the business end). The AE2100 is a free turbine engine, so the PCU system feathers the prop on shutdown. These blades appear to be near or at feather.
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Old 6th April 2026 | 15:37
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From: Near the coast
Langleybaston

I’m actually not sure that Iran wants or even needs a ceasefire. Remember they are neither rational nor think like us.

I actually think that the longer this goes on, the worse America looks. Iran know that. They’re getting pummelled regardless and Israel won’t stop so easily anyway.

So you or I, in Iran’s shoes, would want a ceasefire ASAP. But we’re not the leaders of Iran. You need to think in Persian!

BV
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Old 6th April 2026 | 15:43
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Several comments that the planners are idiots and that's a desert and the Iranians can easily go off road parallel to the craters. Without DTED it's difficult to tell if they're in steep sided valleys or not.

I am presuming these are PGM strikes dropped by the 4 x B-1 mission out of Fairford.

(Shows how war has changed compared to the 21 bombs dropped diagonally across the runway at Stanley by Black Buck to ensure one on target)

Satellite images show about 28 craters cut into roads in Isfahan Province near the rescue site of the downed U.S. airman.

Each crater is around 9 meters wide and aligned to block access routes. The site is roughly 20 km from the remote airstrip where U.S. forces destroyed damaged aircraft.

The strikes were likely meant to prevent Iranian forces from reaching the area during the rescue - CNN



Last edited by ORAC; 6th April 2026 at 16:15.
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Old 6th April 2026 | 15:56
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From: Over the rainbow
Now that's precision. Thinking back to the Vulcan bombing the airfield during the Falkland's using H2S and having to straddle the runway to increase chances of a hit.
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Old 6th April 2026 | 16:38
  #4958 (permalink)  
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From: 3rd Rock, #29B
Originally Posted by Bob Viking
I’m actually not sure that Iran wants or even needs a ceasefire. Remember they are neither rational nor think like us.

I actually think that the longer this goes on, the worse America looks. Iran know that. They’re getting pummelled regardless and Israel won’t stop so easily anyway.

So you or I, in Iran’s shoes, would want a ceasefire ASAP. But we’re not the leaders of Iran. You need to think in Persian!

BV
Bob, assuming your adversary is less committed or less competent than the home team has been the parent of a lot of historical goat stew alternatives. In this particular instance, it seems rather unlikely that the Iranian command is less competent than what passes for strategy from the WH per every tweet that is presented.

The U.S. has set the conditions precedent for a rise in Iranian regional influence, not the opposite, so that seems like Vlad's case, there is assistance from our side for reasons that are not obvious.

Currently, there is a fair argument that there is more truth from Tehran than there is Truth from the Oval Office. Even the CSAR for the F-15E WSO is starting to look like not all the asserted facts from the WH are consistent with the facts on the ground. Much of the CSAR story is not adding up at present, which is expected.
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Old 6th April 2026 | 16:43
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From: Falling off the end of the thread
If 8 was Iran I would be making sure any disused airfields are mined or blocked by some other methods.

Last edited by NutLoose; 6th April 2026 at 17:43.
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Old 6th April 2026 | 17:10
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POTUS + SecWar + Chairman JCS Press Conference Live now

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