Originally Posted by
ORAC
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Iran vs USA/Israel and proxies/bystanders plus the simultaneous conflict of Russia vs Ukraine is leading to interesting times in the energy game.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/2...487985104.html
It used to be that oil over $100/bbl was highly correlated with global recessions. The last pre-Hormuz loadings are nearing their voyage destinations, so physical consequences are about to become reality.
A lot of the stuff that is now being hit has rebuild times of many months to many years. So even if Hormuz gets reopened the consequences will be around for quite a while. Both in the upstream and the downstream.
In the short term (2026) a factor that will delay the worst effects is that we are entering northern hemisphere Summer. Aircon loads are at least highly correlated with solar PV output.
Chinese solar manufacturing should have a bumper year, again. And all countries' wind manufacturing, excepting USA of course where they seem to be trying to turn the clock back on themselves as well as on Iran.
As one might expect, used EV prices are rising on the forecourt.