Iran

[West Coast]

Originally Posted by AR1

It's been pretty amazing just how light the losses have been in the month since the attacks started, but as the conflict evolves, either by as is suggested different technology or tactical changes by the USA ( operations within MANPADS range) that is clearly changing. We'll find out fairly quickly just how this is digested back home, many media outlets are showcasing shock as US aircraft start to be shot down - Yet linebacker II cost 29 odd B52S in 10 days, imagine that now?

Add to your list of possibilities that the losses are also being exaggerated by the Iranians for propaganda purposes. The F15 shoot down has been admitted, still searching for acknowledgment of the loss of two A10s that have been claimed. While the damaged H47 looks like a real image, hard for me to tell if it’s AI or not. ORAC also has a propensity for posting images of actual occurrences but they happen to be from different conflicts and/or timelines than claimed.

To be clear, I acknowledge the Iranians could be telling the truth about the A10s and the US hasn’t admitted to those losses. Confusing (likely by design of either/both sides) to develop an accurate assessment of the status of the war.

First casualty of war is truth, courtesy of all the combatants, media bias, fog of war and even false reporting here on pprune.

[RatherBeFlying]

Back in the early days of Vlad's SMO and discussion of sending combat aircraft to Ukraine, A-10s were deliberately struck off the list of suitable aircraft because of survivability concerns. CSAR needs seem to have overridden this.

If the Iranians get their hands on any surviving aircrew, they might consider hosting him as a valuable honored guest in high command headquarters as protection against decapitation strikes. However SF might want to have a say.


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[212man]

If the Iranians get their hands on any surviving aircrew, they might consider hosting him as a valuable honored guest in high command headquarters as protection against decapitation strikes. However SF might want to have a say.

I suspect that assuming the crew do not fall victim to irate civilians on first contact, the authorities will actually treat them relatively well. Primarily to maintain the projected moral high ground and to avoid alienating the. countries that have said no to supporting Trump. Given that this is not ISIS held territory or the old Vietnam scenarios, this rescue mission seems incredibly high risk for the actual risk being negated. Stooging around in daylight at low speed, in an area where a fast jet was shot down, with twenty or so blokes in platforms with no escape systems?

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by RatherBeFlying

If the Iranians get their hands on any surviving aircrew, they might consider hosting him as a valuable honored guest in high command headquarters as protection against decapitation strikes. However SF might want to have a say.
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Normally they dress them in a new badly fitting suit, then parade them in front of the worlds press, while embarrassing the USA, causing maximum kickback against the establishment from the US population and getting the most traction out of it.

[SINGAPURCANAC]

Whatever they( Iranians) do, it will be mistake.

Because, they missed first rule of war.
Never, ever, accept war over your teritory.
If you need war- export it.

You may be strong and smart, but when enemy says: This Tiown- 100 000 citizen- will not exist tommorow-.
And than you realize( yours sons and daughters live there), we could win- but nobody will be there to celebrate.

It exactly happened in 99.
It will happen to Iran, and it is strange that they don't know it.

[DogTailRed2]

All this talk of the A10 being vulnerable. All aircraft are vulnerable down in the weeds but the A10 has had a very low loss ratio due mainly to it's strong airframe. Armoured cockpit. High position engines and built in redundancy. I seem to recall many during Desert Storm coming home with substantial parts missing.
On the flip side the A10 is much feared and can kill anything on the ground so be careful not to get in it's sights. It also can kill in the air with two air kills.
The problem the Americans face is air combat over a very hostile environment with no good guys below to assist or provide support. Shades of Vietnam for sure.

[fdr]

Originally Posted by ORAC

When the strategic geniuses in the WH do their math next time, they may want to reflect on the consequences of unilateral action taken without congress, allied support. This strike package would look rather different had anyone in the NMCC pointed out some reality to the guys running this circus. These plans make Diego look desirable, so long as it is defended from boats with drones etc... Mauritius may make a windfall yet.

[Bergerie1]

Take a look at what these wargaming exercises predicted. Do those of you in the US military think they were right?

You Tube

[TURIN]

Originally Posted by SINGAPURCANAC

Whatever they( Iranians) do, it will be mistake.

Because, they missed first rule of war.
Never, ever, accept war over your teritory.
If you need war- export it.

You may be strong and smart, but when enemy says: This Tiown- 100 000 citizen- will not exist tommorow-.
And than you realize( yours sons and daughters live there), we could win- but nobody will be there to celebrate.

It exactly happened in 99.
It will happen to Iran, and it is strange that they don't know it.

Sorry to butt in here, but have I missed something? Who has suggested wiping out 100,000 people?

[SINGAPURCANAC]

Enemy . ,
Actually they offer two cities, one in central part cca 100 000 citizen ( the biggest part of ground troops were from that regia- so message was quitte clear- try to win ground battle)
or city with 300 000 people- where majority of high officers have flats with families.
​​​​​Answer was, wherre to sign?

And that also happened in WWII , when japanese military establishment refused to surrend at the end of war. Sign it or every third day- one city less. 06.08. Hiroshima, than 09.08. Nagasaki and there were preparation for third one on 12.08. But some japanese around Tsar send message to USA that TSAR will annpuce end of war. But they needed 5 or 6 days to organize that Tsar unrestricted made public speech over radio- that happened on 15.08.


So these 48 hours given Iran looks like ....

[Beamr]

Originally Posted by SINGAPURCANAC

Enemy . ,
....

So, you are really convinced that US would go nuclear over Iran?

Sure.

[SINGAPURCANAC]

Originally Posted by Beamr

So, you are really convinced that US would go nuclear over Iran?

Sure.

Don't think so, but other means of pressure very likelly.

[Bfah]

Just a question about the missing F15 crew member (apologies if spoken about before...).

I assume that they have beacons for SAR, so maybe the beacon is faulty?
Do they have food/water pouchs etc?
Do they carry gold coins etc, (like the SAS (Andy McNab in Bravo Two Zero mentions handing over)).?

If both ejected 'around' the same time, I wonder what the proximity would be and surely the other pilot would have had eyes on him?
If the seat failed to eject, then the body would have been in the cockpit and all over the Iranian news.

Maybe the rescued pilot saw the eject but no chutes (seat to still be found)...?

Obvioulsy, they have evasion training, but water and shelter (food in at least a week), is going to be prime, but if no comms, it's going to be tough...

Hopefully a good outcome will ensue,,,

[Bell_ringer]

I expected a better level of factual discussion here vs the nonsense from jetblast.

[CharlieMike]

Originally Posted by Bfah

Just a question about the missing F15 crew member (apologies if spoken about before...).

I assume that they have beacons for SAR, so maybe the beacon is faulty?
Do they have food/water pouchs etc?
Do they carry gold coins etc, (like the SAS (Andy McNab in Bravo Two Zero mentions handing over)).?

If both ejected 'around' the same time, I wonder what the proximity would be and surely the other pilot would have had eyes on him?
If the seat failed to eject, then the body would have been in the cockpit and all over the Iranian news.

Maybe the rescued pilot saw the eject but no chutes (seat to still be found)...?

Obvioulsy, they have evasion training, but water and shelter (food in at least a week), is going to be prime, but if no comms, it's going to be tough...

Hopefully a good outcome will ensue,,,

I'm assuming they will have a HOOK3 combat survival radio, capable of sending encrypted GPS information, user identification and sitreps to Quickdraw2 kit plugged into any CSAR aircraft. It's line of sight UHF, so range will be up to something like 90 miles terrain dependent. The survival pack will have (limited) water pouches and very limited sustenance. I'm not sure about the gold coins...but if it's the same as the UK in Afghanistan, there will be a promissory note on the back of an escape map that promises to pay the bearer reward for safe passage of the holder.

[Tashengurt]

Originally Posted by Bfah

Just a question about the missing F15 crew member (apologies if spoken about before...).

I assume that they have beacons for SAR, so maybe the beacon is faulty?
Do they have food/water pouchs etc?
Do they carry gold coins etc, (like the SAS (Andy McNab in Bravo Two Zero mentions handing over)).?

If both ejected 'around' the same time, I wonder what the proximity would be and surely the other pilot would have had eyes on him?
If the seat failed to eject, then the body would have been in the cockpit and all over the Iranian news.

Maybe the rescued pilot saw the eject but no chutes (seat to still be found)...?

Obvioulsy, they have evasion training, but water and shelter (food in at least a week), is going to be prime, but if no comms, it's going to be tough...

Hopefully a good outcome will ensue,,,

The ability of one ejected being able to see another will of course depend on many factors; Their level of consciousness, shock, injury and if they happen to just be facing the wrong way in their 'chute.
I would expect any locator beacons would have their automatic functions disabled so if they can't manually activate it it's not going to be any help.

[Steepclimb]

Originally Posted by Bfah

Just a question about the missing F15 crew member (apologies if spoken about before...).

I assume that they have beacons for SAR, so maybe the beacon is faulty?
Do they have food/water pouchs etc?
Do they carry gold coins etc, (like the SAS (Andy McNab in Bravo Two Zero mentions handing over)).?

If both ejected 'around' the same time, I wonder what the proximity would be and surely the other pilot would have had eyes on him?
If the seat failed to eject, then the body would have been in the cockpit and all over the Iranian news.

Maybe the rescued pilot saw the eject but no chutes (seat to still be found)...?

Obvioulsy, they have evasion training, but water and shelter (food in at least a week), is going to be prime, but if no comms, it's going to be tough...

Hopefully a good outcome will ensue,,,

Others have commented. My view is that he is still alive but evading. Perhaps hiding in place. I would believe the CSAR people know where he is but given the reception they got rescuing the pilot. One A10 shot down and the helicopters taking ground fire. There might be a rethink. This is a classic Vietnam scenario. Heavy opposition.
If they have contact with the WSO, I think a night operation is probably in place, perhaps tonight. This would blind the Iranian irregulars searching for him. It's an isolated area.

Another possibility is that he fell into the hands of a sympathetic rebel group.

He may turn up later.

Of course as I write this he may be rescued.

If he was killed, no doubt the body would already be found.

I think it's ongoing.

[AR1]

The commitment of US forces to recover their downed aircrew never fails to astound me, i was privileged to get some airtime on a Greenking in the early 80s and see it first hand, albeit, thankfully, with no threat..
The discussion of the upper command can exist in a parallel thread but I've got great admiration for those who need to deliver. Hoping for a positive outcome.

[ORAC]

Bideo

https://x.com/PolitlcsGlobal/status/...025769767?s=20

President Trump has shared a video of US strikes in Iran.

Trump added that “many of Iran’s military leaders are terminated with this massive strike in Tehran”

Reported early this morning - Trump has just confirmed it.

https://x.com/JimFergusonUK/status/2...586373347?s=20

IRGC COMMAND HIT — DECAPITATION STRIKE IN TEHRAN

A major intelligence-led operation has reportedly taken out a senior IRGC command and control centre in Tehran. Dozens of top officials — eliminated in one strike.

[212man]

Originally Posted by SINGAPURCANAC

Tell me anyone who proved to be smart for allowing full scale war over its own teritory since military aviation born?

Tell me a country that had any choice in the matter?