Iran
Joined: Apr 2001
Aviation Qualifications: ATP+Mil
Posts: 4,914
Likes: 608
From: surfing, watching for sharks
Joined: Apr 2010
Aviation Qualifications: Military (Retired)
Posts: 958
Likes: 1,239
From: Herefordshire
Maybe an all out invasion is the way to go. US,IDF and possibly Gulf Arab states. After the regime is removed a new Iranian military could be created. Regime loyalists could be hunted out. The Crown Prince could be the new Shah, either that or a democratic system with possibly the new Shah being just a figurehead. This would be a great gift to the Iranian people by removing the wicked regime from power. The only nation state threat in the region would be gone once and for all, replaced by a new partner nation and friend.
Joined: Jul 2008
Aviation Qualifications: Military
Posts: 2,978
Likes: 174
From: Australia OZ
I'll look for further reports however this one is the first seen on the subject....
US jet makes emergency landing after being hit by Iranian fire 20 Mar 2026
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other...re/ar-AA1YZwgD
"A U.S. fighter jet was forced to make an emergency landing in the Middle East after it was reportedly struck by Iranian fire. "We are aware of reports that a U.S. F-35 aircraft conducted an emergency landing at a regional U.S airbase after flying a combat mission over Iran,” Capt. Tim Hawkins, a spokesperson for U.S. Central Command, told The Independent. “The aircraft landed safely, and the pilot is in stable condition,” Hawkins added. “This incident is under investigation." The jet is believed to have been hit by Iranian fire, two unnamed sources with knowledge of the matter told CNN. The attack would mark the first time Iranian forces have struck an American aircraft since the war broke out late last month...."
CNN same report: US F-35 damaged by suspected Iranian fire makes emergency landing, sources say | CNN Politics
US jet makes emergency landing after being hit by Iranian fire 20 Mar 2026
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other...re/ar-AA1YZwgD
"A U.S. fighter jet was forced to make an emergency landing in the Middle East after it was reportedly struck by Iranian fire. "We are aware of reports that a U.S. F-35 aircraft conducted an emergency landing at a regional U.S airbase after flying a combat mission over Iran,” Capt. Tim Hawkins, a spokesperson for U.S. Central Command, told The Independent. “The aircraft landed safely, and the pilot is in stable condition,” Hawkins added. “This incident is under investigation." The jet is believed to have been hit by Iranian fire, two unnamed sources with knowledge of the matter told CNN. The attack would mark the first time Iranian forces have struck an American aircraft since the war broke out late last month...."
CNN same report: US F-35 damaged by suspected Iranian fire makes emergency landing, sources say | CNN Politics
Last edited by SpazSinbad; 19th March 2026 at 18:17. Reason: +URL
Joined: Jun 2001
Aviation Qualifications: ATPL
Posts: 4,087
Likes: 4,426
From: 3rd Rock, #29B
We are definitely not in Kansas, Toto...
Status:
Having torn a scab off a suppurating sore, the US has a problem that it is now dealing with the gangrene following its actions. Multiple actors sit in the wings LMAO-ROFL at the predicament that has arisen, but in the background they all have a vested interest in the outcome,
Team Red
Red-1
Vlad's is the additional instability is in his favour since his best mate decided that it was time to refill Vlad's war chest. Thems' gotta be brilliant kompromat pikkies, has to involve a goat or a stoat or something to justify that, but, nevertheless, Vlad has been handed a lifeline. Well done. Not sure that Ukraine would agree with the tactic.
Red-2
Xi is not too pleased with the squeeze of his strategic reserves which were around 120 days or so. If the punters of China start going onto an enforced diet due to the impending famine conditions that will arise, then Xi's life insurance will probably take a bit of a hike. Taking on Taiwan needs a strategic energy and food reserve, that is not going to be going in the right direction at this time.
Team White
EU
Smart play to stay neutral, until it doesn't work anymore. EU will be hit fairly hard by another energy shock, they weaned off Vlad juice, and there is now a bit of a weanerizing going on with gulf oil. That will hurt, it is only when, not if.
Team Red-White-Blue
Constitutes the USA and those locations where the USA has forward operational bases. And Israel.
Plinking the top dogs of your opponent is either going to win in minutes or result in the next 300 year war. I think we can safely say we are going to get tired of so much winning. Putting the world's economy into the juicer would not have been my pick for ways to earn a Nobel peace prize, but it sure may win the Order of Lenin from Vlad.
Continued whack-a-mole that is not totally debilitating is not likely to get a regime change going, at least, not in Iran, (Suspect that the exits are being lubricated for the convenors of this spectacle). As long as Iran can conduct BAU while interdicting oil shipments to others, there is little prospect for stability. Kharg Island accounts for 90% of all oil exports from Iran, and shutting that down is the fastest way with least casualties to alter the chess board. Boots on the ground would be confronted with the largest concentration of fire power since the Mayor of Hiroshima's bad day out. Iran is in the process of striking gulf states oil infrastructure, and it would appear to be time to declare a DTG for a NOTAM on the opening of the Kharg Island bombing range. The response from China, India, and Russia will be shrill enough that a high bypass filter may be in order, but, it might get some suggestions flowing into whoever is the last man standing in the sausage machine that is Irans line of succession.
Absent debilitating Irans economic capacity, the options A and B remain and one is just not in the nature of the beast, and the other is not going to buff out readily. Putting Irans leaders in a position where they can be removed by the population without the level of murder and mayhem that has occurred on occasions when the populate has risen up would be a good outcome. Right now, reliance on any oil from Iran or the gulf in the near future would seem to be an act of faith.
Status:
Having torn a scab off a suppurating sore, the US has a problem that it is now dealing with the gangrene following its actions. Multiple actors sit in the wings LMAO-ROFL at the predicament that has arisen, but in the background they all have a vested interest in the outcome,
Team Red
Red-1
Vlad's is the additional instability is in his favour since his best mate decided that it was time to refill Vlad's war chest. Thems' gotta be brilliant kompromat pikkies, has to involve a goat or a stoat or something to justify that, but, nevertheless, Vlad has been handed a lifeline. Well done. Not sure that Ukraine would agree with the tactic.
Red-2
Xi is not too pleased with the squeeze of his strategic reserves which were around 120 days or so. If the punters of China start going onto an enforced diet due to the impending famine conditions that will arise, then Xi's life insurance will probably take a bit of a hike. Taking on Taiwan needs a strategic energy and food reserve, that is not going to be going in the right direction at this time.
Team White
EU
Smart play to stay neutral, until it doesn't work anymore. EU will be hit fairly hard by another energy shock, they weaned off Vlad juice, and there is now a bit of a weanerizing going on with gulf oil. That will hurt, it is only when, not if.
Team Red-White-Blue
Constitutes the USA and those locations where the USA has forward operational bases. And Israel.
Plinking the top dogs of your opponent is either going to win in minutes or result in the next 300 year war. I think we can safely say we are going to get tired of so much winning. Putting the world's economy into the juicer would not have been my pick for ways to earn a Nobel peace prize, but it sure may win the Order of Lenin from Vlad.
Continued whack-a-mole that is not totally debilitating is not likely to get a regime change going, at least, not in Iran, (Suspect that the exits are being lubricated for the convenors of this spectacle). As long as Iran can conduct BAU while interdicting oil shipments to others, there is little prospect for stability. Kharg Island accounts for 90% of all oil exports from Iran, and shutting that down is the fastest way with least casualties to alter the chess board. Boots on the ground would be confronted with the largest concentration of fire power since the Mayor of Hiroshima's bad day out. Iran is in the process of striking gulf states oil infrastructure, and it would appear to be time to declare a DTG for a NOTAM on the opening of the Kharg Island bombing range. The response from China, India, and Russia will be shrill enough that a high bypass filter may be in order, but, it might get some suggestions flowing into whoever is the last man standing in the sausage machine that is Irans line of succession.
Absent debilitating Irans economic capacity, the options A and B remain and one is just not in the nature of the beast, and the other is not going to buff out readily. Putting Irans leaders in a position where they can be removed by the population without the level of murder and mayhem that has occurred on occasions when the populate has risen up would be a good outcome. Right now, reliance on any oil from Iran or the gulf in the near future would seem to be an act of faith.
Joined: Dec 2015
Aviation Qualifications: Non-Aircrew
Posts: 867
Likes: 672
From: Budapest
Joined: Oct 1999
Aviation Qualifications: ATPL
Posts: 7,371
Likes: 926
From: Den Haag
That’s a very diplomatic and filtered response!
Thread Starter
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Joined: Jul 2000
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 24,509
Likes: 7,254
From: Peripatetic
Reference the F-35. Remember that the F-35 is not a fully stealthy airplane like the F-22 or B-2. Designed to keep within a budget its stealth is optimised to the front hemisphere - where it would expect most attacks, and is patchy in the rear hemisphere. And of course it generates an enormous amount of heat and struggles to get rid of it - an issue trying to addressed during it’s future. engine and systems upgrade. In this case the F-35 seems to have been hit by a rear hemisphere IR guided missile.
In short this does not reveal any unknown failure in the F-35 design, you can expect the odd loss in combat, all the design does is minimise the risk - not eliminate it.
And it got home……
In short this does not reveal any unknown failure in the F-35 design, you can expect the odd loss in combat, all the design does is minimise the risk - not eliminate it.
And it got home……
The U.S. F-35 apparently didn’t take a direct hit, which allowed it to escape and make an emergency landing at the nearest regional base. However, the jet may have sustained damage from the SAM blast.
It looks like the Iranians employed an infrared-guided (IR) surface-to-air missile with optical or electro-optical tracking to engage the jet. In this scenario, the F-35’s stealth features wouldn’t offer much protection against a missile homing on heat and visual signatures.
It looks like the Iranians employed an infrared-guided (IR) surface-to-air missile with optical or electro-optical tracking to engage the jet. In this scenario, the F-35’s stealth features wouldn’t offer much protection against a missile homing on heat and visual signatures.
Joined: Apr 2000
Aviation Qualifications: ATP+Mil
Posts: 10,959
Likes: 1,814
From: EGDC
At what point will the US throw Bibi under the bus and use his attack on the gas field as an excuse that he has gone too far unilaterally?
Then they can blame poor Israeli intelligence for over-egging the threat in the first place and walk away without actually needing to prove a victory.
Any other off-ramps seem vanishingly small.
Then they can blame poor Israeli intelligence for over-egging the threat in the first place and walk away without actually needing to prove a victory.
Any other off-ramps seem vanishingly small.
Joined: Apr 2000
Aviation Qualifications: ATP+Mil
Posts: 10,959
Likes: 1,814
From: EGDC
and also -
Joined: Sep 2004
Aviation Qualifications: ATPL(H)
Posts: 2,371
Likes: 877
From: Canada
War is just an extension of failed diplomacy
Hard to keep politics off this thread when the “war” is being run from the White House, a make up room in the Pentagon, Air Force 1 and various golf venues. Not to speculate but perhaps also from some VLCBRs . ( Very Large Corporate Board Rooms )
Remember when Politicians gave simple directives and got the heck out of the way?
On February 12, 1944, General
Dwight D. Eisenhower
received a formal directive from the Anglo-American Combined Chiefs of Staff (CCS) that officially launched the
The primary mission, as stated in the directive, was as follows:"You will enter the continent of Europe and, in conjunction with the other United Nations, undertake operations aimed at the heart of Germany and the destruction of her armed forces".
Remember when Politicians gave simple directives and got the heck out of the way?
On February 12, 1944, General
Dwight D. Eisenhower
received a formal directive from the Anglo-American Combined Chiefs of Staff (CCS) that officially launched the
The primary mission, as stated in the directive, was as follows:"You will enter the continent of Europe and, in conjunction with the other United Nations, undertake operations aimed at the heart of Germany and the destruction of her armed forces".
Last edited by albatross; 19th March 2026 at 19:03. Reason: Farce 1 corrected to Force 1
Joined: Jan 2008
Aviation Qualifications: CPL
Posts: 649
Likes: 39
From: Canada
The U.S. F-35 apparently didn’t take a direct hit, which allowed it to escape and make an emergency landing at the nearest regional base. However, the jet may have sustained damage from the SAM blast.
Pete Hegseth said Thursday morning that the US is “winning decisively” and that Iran’s air defenses have been “flattened.”
Joined: May 2009
Aviation Qualifications: ATP+Mil
Posts: 314
Likes: 254
From: uk
Thanks nonsense
never was very good at maths ! But that was a howler.
Donald exaggerating - never ! But I think any useful Iranian resistance to the aerial onslaught HAS by now been well and truly ‘decimated ‘.no matter how you work it out !
I certainly wouldn’t like to be on the receiving end
Decimate means
to destroy, kill, or remove a large percentage of something, or to drastically reduce in size/number, such as in "the plague decimated the population". While originally meaning to kill one in ten, its modern usage focuses on high-level destruction. Synonyms include annihilate, devastate, eradicate, and wipe out.
AI
never was very good at maths ! But that was a howler.
Donald exaggerating - never ! But I think any useful Iranian resistance to the aerial onslaught HAS by now been well and truly ‘decimated ‘.no matter how you work it out !
I certainly wouldn’t like to be on the receiving end
Decimate means
to destroy, kill, or remove a large percentage of something, or to drastically reduce in size/number, such as in "the plague decimated the population". While originally meaning to kill one in ten, its modern usage focuses on high-level destruction. Synonyms include annihilate, devastate, eradicate, and wipe out.
AI
Last edited by mahogany bob; 19th March 2026 at 20:08.
Joined: Oct 2005
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 145
Likes: 120
From: Charlie Mike
I see in Netanyahu's press conference this evening...asked if Israel told Trump about the recent attack on Iranian gas fields, Netanyahu says that "Israel acted alone".
Won't this have all been coordinated through a normal ATO process, which means the US will have had full awareness of the targets prior to the strike? Or is Israel doing their own thing some of the time?
Won't this have all been coordinated through a normal ATO process, which means the US will have had full awareness of the targets prior to the strike? Or is Israel doing their own thing some of the time?
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 897
Likes: 140
From: Frensham
[url=https://x.com/qatarenergy/status/2034726978637471993?s=20]
[/ame]
Providing an update on the damage from the missile attacks on Ras Laffan Industrial City
H.E. Minister Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi: The missile attacks reduced Qatar’s LNG export capacity by 17% and caused an estimated loss of $20 billion in annual revenue
- Extensive damage to our production facilities will take up to five years to repair and will compel us to declare long-term force majeure
QatarEnergy expects the damage to its Ras Laffan Industrial City caused by missile strikes, which occurred on Wednesday 18 March 2026, and in the early hours of Thursday 19 March 2026, to cost about $20 billion a year in lost revenue and to take up to five years to repair, impacting supply to markets in Europe and Asia.
Providing an update on the damage to the facilities at Ras Laffan Industrial City, His Excellency Mr. Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, the Minister of State for Energy Affairs, the President and CEO of QatarEnergy, said “I am relieved to confirm that no one was injured by these unjustified and senseless attacks, which weren’t just an attack on the State of Qatar but attacks on global energy security and stability. This was an attack on all of us who stand for development and human progress that is sustained by a fair, reliable, and secure access to energy.”
The attacks damaged two liquefied natural gas (LNG) producing Trains 4 and 6 totaling 12.8 million tons per annum (MTPA) of production, representing approximately 17% of Qatar’s exports. Train 4 is a joint venture between QatarEnergy (66%) and ExxonMobil (34%), and Train 6 is a joint venture between QatarEnergy (70%) and ExxonMobil (30%).
His Excellency Minister Al-Kaabi said: “The damage sustained by the LNG facilities will take between three to five years to repair. The impact is on China, South Korea, Italy and Belgium. This means that we will be compelled to declare force majeure for up to five years on some long-term LNG contracts.”
The attacks also targeted the Pearl GTL (Gas-to-Liquids) facility, a production sharing agreement operated by Shell, that converts natural gas into high-quality cleaner burning drop-in fuels and produces base oils used to make premium engine oils and lubricants, and paraffins and waxes.
“The damage caused to one of the two trains at Pearl GTL is being assessed and is expected to be offline for a minimum of one year” His Excellency Minister Al-Kaabi added.
It should be noted that there will be a loss of associated product production due to this outage as follows:
· Condensates: 18.6 million barrels which is around 24% of Qatar’s exports
· LPG: 1.281 MT which is around 13% of Qatar’s exports
· Naphtha: 0.594 MT which is around 6% of Qatar’s exports
· Sulfur: 0.18 MT which is around 6% of Qatar’s exports
· Helium: 309.54 MCFA which is around 14% of Qatar’s exports
His Excellency the Minister of State for Energy Affairs, the President and CEO of QatarEnergy paid tribute to the Qatari military and security forces and to the energy sector emergency response teams whose courage and extraordinary professionalism ensured the situation was contained quickly and safely.
Providing an update on the damage from the missile attacks on Ras Laffan Industrial City
H.E. Minister Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi: The missile attacks reduced Qatar’s LNG export capacity by 17% and caused an estimated loss of $20 billion in annual revenue
- Extensive damage to our production facilities will take up to five years to repair and will compel us to declare long-term force majeure
QatarEnergy expects the damage to its Ras Laffan Industrial City caused by missile strikes, which occurred on Wednesday 18 March 2026, and in the early hours of Thursday 19 March 2026, to cost about $20 billion a year in lost revenue and to take up to five years to repair, impacting supply to markets in Europe and Asia.
Providing an update on the damage to the facilities at Ras Laffan Industrial City, His Excellency Mr. Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, the Minister of State for Energy Affairs, the President and CEO of QatarEnergy, said “I am relieved to confirm that no one was injured by these unjustified and senseless attacks, which weren’t just an attack on the State of Qatar but attacks on global energy security and stability. This was an attack on all of us who stand for development and human progress that is sustained by a fair, reliable, and secure access to energy.”
The attacks damaged two liquefied natural gas (LNG) producing Trains 4 and 6 totaling 12.8 million tons per annum (MTPA) of production, representing approximately 17% of Qatar’s exports. Train 4 is a joint venture between QatarEnergy (66%) and ExxonMobil (34%), and Train 6 is a joint venture between QatarEnergy (70%) and ExxonMobil (30%).
His Excellency Minister Al-Kaabi said: “The damage sustained by the LNG facilities will take between three to five years to repair. The impact is on China, South Korea, Italy and Belgium. This means that we will be compelled to declare force majeure for up to five years on some long-term LNG contracts.”
The attacks also targeted the Pearl GTL (Gas-to-Liquids) facility, a production sharing agreement operated by Shell, that converts natural gas into high-quality cleaner burning drop-in fuels and produces base oils used to make premium engine oils and lubricants, and paraffins and waxes.
“The damage caused to one of the two trains at Pearl GTL is being assessed and is expected to be offline for a minimum of one year” His Excellency Minister Al-Kaabi added.
It should be noted that there will be a loss of associated product production due to this outage as follows:
· Condensates: 18.6 million barrels which is around 24% of Qatar’s exports
· LPG: 1.281 MT which is around 13% of Qatar’s exports
· Naphtha: 0.594 MT which is around 6% of Qatar’s exports
· Sulfur: 0.18 MT which is around 6% of Qatar’s exports
· Helium: 309.54 MCFA which is around 14% of Qatar’s exports
His Excellency the Minister of State for Energy Affairs, the President and CEO of QatarEnergy paid tribute to the Qatari military and security forces and to the energy sector emergency response teams whose courage and extraordinary professionalism ensured the situation was contained quickly and safely.
Joined: Jul 2013
Aviation Qualifications: Non-Aircrew
Posts: 5,672
Likes: 3,314
From: Everett, WA
Thread Starter
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Joined: Jul 2000
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 24,509
Likes: 7,254
From: Peripatetic
I see in Netanyahu's press conference this evening...asked if Israel told Trump about the recent attack on Iranian gas fields, Netanyahu says that "Israel acted alone".
Won't this have all been coordinated through a normal ATO process, which means the US will have had full awareness of the targets prior to the strike? Or is Israel doing their own thing some of the time?
Won't this have all been coordinated through a normal ATO process, which means the US will have had full awareness of the targets prior to the strike? Or is Israel doing their own thing some of the time?
It means that Trump now owes him a favour, especially if he has a paper trail detailing the background briefing - and of course a copy of the ATO Frag.
Joined: Apr 2003
Aviation Qualifications: PPL
Posts: 10,564
Likes: 798
From: Northumberland
I see in Netanyahu's press conference this evening...asked if Israel told Trump about the recent attack on Iranian gas fields, Netanyahu says that "Israel acted alone".
Won't this have all been coordinated through a normal ATO process, which means the US will have had full awareness of the targets prior to the strike? Or is Israel doing their own thing some of the time?
Won't this have all been coordinated through a normal ATO process, which means the US will have had full awareness of the targets prior to the strike? Or is Israel doing their own thing some of the time?
Thread Starter
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Joined: Jul 2000
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 24,509
Likes: 7,254
From: Peripatetic
As a follow up to the charts showing Europe only buys about 5% of Gulf oil output as opposed to Asia at about 90% - making keeping Hormuz open very much an Asian problem, it seems the same holds true for Qatari LNG….
