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Iran

Old 2nd March 2026 | 12:40
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From Reuters: (my paraphrase) Red Crescent reports about 200 dead and over 700 injured so far, in Iran.

If anyone thinks that democracy will break out in Iran as a result of these strikes, I'd suggest a rethink:
Before his death, Khamenei had already delegated much of Iran's day-to-day governance to Mr Larijani, a veteran politician and former commander in Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
Mr Larijani has overseen an expansive portfolio, effectively sidelining Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian.
The IGRC are not going to go gentle into that good night.
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Old 2nd March 2026 | 12:43
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The Iranian strategy has quickly evolved into something more impactful i.e. upending global oil and gas prices. Makes much more sense than striking random targets in the Gulf states.
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Old 2nd March 2026 | 12:44
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There's a radar at Paphos?
Cyprus has a large number of SAM systems along with surveillance radars. Radars are situated in the Troödos mountains, SAM systems are distributed, including at the military air base colocated with Paphos airfield.

e.g.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyprus...nd#Air_Defense

https://knews.kathimerini.com.cy/en/...aphos-air-base

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Old 2nd March 2026 | 12:46
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
From Reuters: (my paraphrase) Red Crescent reports about 200 dead and over 700 injured so far, in Iran.

If anyone thinks that democracy will break out in Iran as a result of these strikes, I'd suggest a rethink:
The IGRC are not going to go gentle into that good night.
Not only that, but its clear the regime is far from being universally despised inside Iran or in some neighboring countries
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Old 2nd March 2026 | 13:11
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The best that can be hoped for is a benign dictatorship, and that's pretty unlikely.
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Old 2nd March 2026 | 13:12
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​​​​​​​BREAKING: QatarEnergy stops LNG production.

If Qatar has shut down all its LNG production, as the statement's wording suggests, that's roughly 20% of the world's output. As a single company, QatarEnergy is the world's largest LNG producer...)



​​​​​​​European Gas prices surged 50% after the Qatari LNG production halts.

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Old 2nd March 2026 | 13:19
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https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ys-2026-03-02/

Qatar halts LNG output, Saudi refinery, Israeli oil, gas fields shut amid Mideast strikes

March 2 (Reuters) - Qatar halted its production of liquefied natural gas on Monday as Israeli and U.S. strikes against Iran and Tehran's retaliation prompted precautionary shutdowns of oil and gas facilities across the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia shut its biggest domestic oil refinery after a drone strike, a source with knowledge of the matter said.

Qatari LNG production is equivalent to about 20% of global supply. The Gulf country is the world’s second largest LNG exporter after the U.S. and plays a major role in balancing Asian and European LNG market needs. Asian clients represent 82% of state-owned QatarEnergy's customers.

A wave of attacks in the Middle East stretched into a third day, also resulting in the suspension of most oil production in Iraqi Kurdistan and several major Israeli gas fields, throttling exports to Egypt.

Oil prices surged as much as 13% intraday to above $82 a barrel, the highest since January 2025, as the conflict ground shipping to a near halt in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil supply flows.

State oil giant Saudi Aramco's 550,000 barrels per day (bpd) Ras Tanura refinery, which was shut as a precautionary measure, is part of an energy complex on the kingdom's Gulf coast which also serves as a critical export terminal for Saudi crude oil.

Aramco did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment.

Meanwhile, gas giant QatarEnergy said it was also ceasing production of products associated with LNG. Earlier on Monday, Qatar's government said an energy facility belonging to QatarEnergy was attacked by two Iranian drones, with authorities assessing the damage.

IRAQI KURDISTAN HALTS OIL PRODUCTION

In Iraqi Kurdistan, which exported 200,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) via pipeline to Turkey's Ceyhan port in February, companies including DNO, Gulf Keystone Petroleum, Dana Gas and HKN Energy have stopped output at their fields as a precaution, with no damage reported.

Offshore Israel, the Israeli government instructed Chevron to temporarily shut down the giant Leviathan gas field where it is in the process of expanding capacity to around 21 billion cubic metres a year as part of a $35 billion export deal to Egypt. A spokesperson for Chevron, which also operates the Tamar gas field offshore Israel, said its facilities were safe.

Energean shut down its production vessel serving smaller gas fields.

In Iran, explosions were heard on Saturday in Kharg Island, which processes 90% of Iran's crude exports. It was unclear how the facilities were impacted. Iran, the third largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, pumps about 4.5% of global oil supplies. Iran's output is about 3.3 million barrels per day of crude, plus 1.3 million bpd of condensate and other liquids.

DRONES INTERCEPTED IN SAUDI ARABIA

The situation at Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery is under control, the source said. Two drones were intercepted at the facility, with debris causing a limited fire, the Saudi defence ministry's spokesperson said on Al Arabiya TV, adding there were no injuries. Some of the refinery's units were shut as a precautionary measure but the supply of petroleum and its derivatives to local markets was not affected, Saudi state news agency SPA said, citing an unnamed official at the energy ministry.

Still, Ras Tanura's shutdown will likely add to supply anxieties as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz grinds to a near-halt after vessels were attacked around it on Sunday.

ATTACK SEEN AS SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION

"The attack on Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery marks a significant escalation, with Gulf energy infrastructure now squarely in Iran’s sights," said Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal Middle East analyst at risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft. "The attack is also likely to move Saudi Arabia and neighbouring Gulf states closer to joining U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran."
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Old 2nd March 2026 | 13:31
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Maritime update:
Hormuz Update 2 March AM

Multiple reports that the US flagged tanker Stena Imperative has been hit by two projectiles while in port in Bahrain.

​​​​​​​According to the
UKMTO, the fire has been extinguished but the ship was evacuated and no casaulties reported. She is a member of the DOTMARAD Tanker Security Program and has been chartered by the MSCSealift to provide fuel for the DeptofWar.

This attack highlights the vulnerability of US merchant ships and ports, a subject that has been brought to the attention of the
DeptofWar many times by @johnkonrad and myself.

Traffic is still holding on both sides of the Strait.

There was a report of an incident on the Western side of the Strait but with no reported damage or injuries.

​​​​​​​
There are four other US-flagged commercial ships in the Persian Gulf and the question should be raised to US5thFleet and CENTCOM what they are doing to protect these ships.

The escalation in strikes and the friendly fire incidents resulting in the shoot down of multiple US aircraft will probably cause ships to remain in the anchorages and await further developments.
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Old 2nd March 2026 | 13:39
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Old 2nd March 2026 | 13:44
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I twonder if this will lead to a permanent relocation of their operating base.

MADRID, March 2 (Reuters) - Fifteen U.S. aircraft have left the Rota and Moron military bases in southern Spain since the U.S. and Israel launched weekend attacks on Iran, maps by flight tracking website FlightRadar24 showed on Monday.....

Two flights departed from Rota, a naval base with an airfield, towards southern France, FlightRadar24 showed. A further four flights departed from Rota but their route was not shown..... At least seven of the aircraft were shown on FlightRadar24 as having landed at Ramstein Air Base in Germany.....

FlightRadar24's tracking website showed nine tankers departed on Sunday from the Moron airbase in southern Spain and headed towards Germany.

Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares said Spain would not allow its military bases, which are jointly operated by the U.S. and Spain but under Spanish sovereignty, to be used for attacks on Iran, which Spain has condemned.

Defence Minister Margarita Robles said the aircraft - primarily aerial refuelling tankers including the Boeing KC-135 "Stratotanker" - had been permanently stationed in Spain.

Spain's stance and the emphatic condemnation of the U.S-Israeli actions in Iran by Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez once again make it an outlier in the region, potentially straining its relationship with Washington further.

"Spanish bases are not being used for this operation, and they will not be used for anything not included in the agreement with the United States or for anything that is not in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations," Albares said, speaking to Spanish broadcaster Telecinco.....
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Old 2nd March 2026 | 14:04
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I just about posted a comment here but after reading it moved it to Jet Blast to save our moderators some time!

Basically just a “What the Hell do they think they are gonna accomplish?” diatribe.

All good thoughts and thanks to the moderators who must be working very hard across multiple threads both here and on other forums.
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Old 2nd March 2026 | 14:04
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Which owner is going to risk it without insurance cover?

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/m...n-persian-gulf

Major insurance clubs to end ship war-risk cover in Persian Gulf

Updated Mar 02, 2026, 04:35 PM

More than half of the world’s largest maritime insurance clubs will cease cover for war risks for ships entering the Persian Gulf starting on March 5.

From midnight London time on March 5, war-risk cover will be terminated automatically if vessels enter the Persian Gulf, specific adjacent waters or Iranian waters, according to notices seen by Bloomberg News.

They were issued by seven out of the 12 members of the International Group of Protection and Indemnity Clubs. The decision affects only war risks, with other terms of cover remaining unchanged.
War-risk cover is a specialised insurance that protects shipowners and charterers from third-party damage resulting from war, terrorism and piracy, among others.

The removal of the insurance will likely dent risk appetite for those looking to load cargoes from within the Persian Gulf. All other terms and conditions of the relevant policies remain unchanged.

The IG contains non-profit, mutual insurance associations that provide maritime cover to about 90 per cent of the world’s ocean-going tonnage.

The clubs that have so far decided to pull war-risk covers are Gard AS, NorthStandard, Steamship Mutual Underwriting Association, Assuranceforeningen Skuld, American Steamship Owners Mutual Protection and Indemnity Association, The Swedish Club and the London P&I Club.
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Old 2nd March 2026 | 14:07
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50

If anyone thinks that democracy will break out in Iran as a result of these strikes, I'd suggest a rethink:
The IGRC are not going to go gentle into that good night.
Well the Trump administration doesn't care. Hegseth's news conference spelt it out:

"No stupid rules of engagement, no nation building quagmire, no democracy building exercise, no politically correct wars,"

He could not make it any clearer. This isn't about regime change. The new leaders can carry repressing the population as long as they get rid of the nuclear weapons, stop interfering with neighbouring countries and stop threatening the US.

Iran has been the local bully in the region for years. But a bigger bully is giving them a few slaps.
Their military capabilities have been badly degraded, their navy and airforce effectively destroyed and they'll run out of missiles and drones soon.

The IGRC has a choice now carry on with the hollow rhetoric or modify their behavior. All of their leaders know there's a target on their back.

It's been said a lot lately the old rules based order has been cast aside. This is more evidence of that.

That's the new reality.








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Old 2nd March 2026 | 14:22
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“No stupid rules of engagement” Hmm, seems to apply to F15s as well.

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Old 2nd March 2026 | 14:30
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Israel bombed the s***t out of Gaza, but Hamas still exists, albeit weakened
Just Mowing the Grass....

​​​​​​​https://www.researchgate.net/publica...table_Conflict

Mowing the Lawn: Lethal Metaphors in Israeli National Security Culture
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Old 2nd March 2026 | 14:34
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..............
Tasnim released the names of additional high-ranking officers killed in the joint Israel-US strikes:

- Basij Major General Shahid Mohammad Shirazi, Chief of Staff of the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces

- Major General of the IRGC, Martyr Saleh Asadi, Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence of the Armed Forces

- Major General Amir, Martyr Pilot Mohsen Darrebaghi, Deputy Commander of Armed Forces Readiness and Support

- Major General of the Revolutionary Guards, Martyr Akbar Ebrahimzadeh, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces

- Major General of the Revolutionary Guards, Martyr Gholamreza Rezaian, Head of the Faraj Intelligence Organization

- Major General of the Revolutionary Guards, Martyr Bahram Hosseini Motlagh, Head of the Planning and Operations Department, Deputy for Operations, General Staff of the Armed Forces

- IRGC Major General Hassan Ali Tajik, Head of the Armed Forces General Staff's Readiness Department

​​​​​​​Source: https://t.co/6UfbHZNQP2
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Old 2nd March 2026 | 14:40
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................
​​​​​​​BREAKING All detainees held at the Central Prison of Marivan were released shortly after Israeli and U.S. fighter jets bombed military and intelligence facilities in the city, according to information received by Hengaw.

The development occurred on Monday, March 2, 2026.
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Old 2nd March 2026 | 14:46
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IDF:
It’s official: All senior terrorist leaders of Iran’s Axis of Terror have been eliminated


​​​​​​
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Old 2nd March 2026 | 15:01
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Qatar MOD say they have shot down 2 Iranian SU-24s.


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Old 2nd March 2026 | 15:05
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Possible fifth column, also possibly news media hysteria, and maybe someone acting out for {pick one} reasons...
The FBI suggests possible linkage to terrorism in a shooting in Austin, TX.
Originally Posted by CBS News
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In other news...
French President Emmanuel Macron said Sunday the Iran conflict has prompted France to reinforce its military posture and its defensive support for allies in the Middle East. Noting that a drone hit a hangar Sunday at a French naval base, he said France needs to ″be able to adapt our posture to the evolution of the last few hours.″
Thank you, Monsieur President.
Commentary from Iran:
“We may have lost one or two commanders, but that is not a big problem,” he added.

Araghchi also said pursuing regime change in Iran was “mission impossible.” The top Iranian diplomat said Tehran was targeting U.S. military bases in the region in retaliation but not “Americans in their land.”

As of right now, there is no communication between Iran and the United States, Araghchi said, but he expressed a willingness to resume dialogue in the interest of de-escalation. “This is a war of choice by the United States, and they have to pay for that,” he added. “But as far as we are concerned, we don’t want war.”
Well, you got one, and some of your neighbors might be upping their game soon. We'll see what happens.

As to Iran's proxy in Lebanon:
In the pre-dawn hours of Monday morning, Hezbollah opened a new front in the US-Israeli war against Iran when it launched “missiles and a swarm of drones” at a military base in northern Israel. The Iran-backed militant group, which has its power base in southern Lebanon, called it revenge for the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Never mind that Israel says the attack did no damage. One projectile was intercepted, while others fell in open areas.

Or that Lebanon’s Prime Minister Nawaf Salam called it “an irresponsible and suspicious act,” and banned Hezbollah’s military activities.

Israel has been poised for this moment for months. Even after a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect in 2024, the Israeli military has been striking Lebanon on a near-daily basis, accusing Hezbollah of violating the agreement by rearming and rebuilding its forces. In November, Israel said it killed Hezbollah’s second most senior figure and Chief of Staff, Haytham Ali Tabatabai. But those were largely individual strikes.
And so it grows...

In the war of words...

THE HAGUE, Netherlands (AP) — As U.S. and Israeli forces pounded Iran, and Tehran and its affiliates retaliated by firing missiles at targets across the Mideast on Monday, the international legal order was caught in the crossfire.

At the heart of the post-World War II global order — United Nations headquarters in New York — Secretary-General António Guterres told the Security Council on Saturday that U.S. and Israeli airstrikes violated international law, including the U.N. Charter.
He also condemned Iran’s retaliatory attacks for violating the sovereignty and territorial integrity of nations in the Mideast.

Officials in the Trump administration insist that the military campaign is a lawful measure to ensure Tehran does not build nuclear weapons. “It’s a matter of global security. And to that end, the United States is taking lawful actions,” Trump’s U.N. ambassador, Mike Waltz, said.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote in a letter to the U.N. on Sunday that the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei “constitutes a grave and unprecedented breach of the most fundamental norms governing relations among States.”
What the Secretary General might wish to consider is that with the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the UNSC has finally shown what its limits are. (The War in Iraq in 2003 was a similar signpost along the road to the UNSC's irrelevance).
This current air centered campaign against Iran barely moves the needle...the troubles go a lot deeper than that.

Saw an interesting tidbit: Spanish government has said quite clearly and publicly that US assets cannot use Spanish bases for this op, which resulted in some aircraft leaving and going elsewhere.

Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 2nd March 2026 at 15:16.
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