Iran

[RatherBeFlying]

Intercepted call of Iranian officials downplays damage of U.S. attack

The officials were heard saying Trump’s strike on Iran proved less devastating than expected. The administration calls the intelligence insignificant. The United States obtained intercepted communication between senior Iranian officials discussing this month’s U.S. military strikes on Iran’s nuclear program and remarking that the attack was less devastating than they had expected, said four people familiar with the classified intelligence circulating within the U.S. government. The communication, intended to be private, included Iranian government officials speculating as to why the strikes directed by President Donald Trump were not as destructive and extensive as they had anticipated, these people said. Like some others, they spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence.

An indication that Mossad has thoroughly infiltrated the Iranian phone network and likely much of the ME.

[Big Pistons Forever]

Dictators generally don’t want to hear the truth so I would expect any internal Iranian communication upwards to minimize the damage just as the leaked US internal messaging seems slanted towards maximizing the damage.

[Lonewolf_50]

The current president of Iran is considered, in the context of Iranian politics, to be a moderate. Interesting that he's the one chosen to deliver this message.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a law suspending his country's cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog, state media outlet Tasnim has reported. Iran's parliament had voted to suspend cooperation previously.

"We are aware of these reports," an IAEA spokesman told Newsweek. "The IAEA is awaiting further official information from Iran."
Iran could use the suspension of IAEA cooperation as leverage in future negotiations on its nuclear program, though no talks are currently due after Tehran rejected President Donald Trump's offer to restart diplomacy immediately on the issue. The Iranian foreign ministry had earlier warned that it was unrealistic for the IAEA to expect a return to normal cooperation so soon after the strikes by the U.S. and Israel, and that it could not guarantee the safety and security of nuclear inspectors.

In this game, the play is continuous.

[Bob Viking]

Iran and the IAEA

It will be interesting to see what the USA say about this move. Bearing in mind their friend in the region never signed up to it in the first place.

I thought Donald was going to bring peace to the region. It seems it is edging ever closer to all out war.

BV

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by Bob Viking

I thought Donald was going to bring peace to the region.

And then you sobered up.
If you choose to buy his hyperbole, that's on you.

Pakistan was, IIRC, not a signatory to the NPT. Maybe that's the best posture to take.

[West Coast]

BV

Can see a continuation of the limited war of the past month, Iran+ proxies, Israel and the US. What other players do you see stepping up to bat?

[Bob Viking]

WC

It’s hard to say. My main concern is that last week Netanyahu decided he couldn’t wait to bomb Iran based on intelligence that only he had. Now there is independently verified intelligence that suggests Iran actually will have a bomb soon. Surely, by his logic, he is actually duty bound to do something this time?!

BV

[West Coast]

Originally Posted by Bob Viking

It’s hard to say. My main concern is that last week Netanyahu decided he couldn’t wait to bomb Iran based on intelligence that only he had. Now there is independently verified intelligence that suggests Iran actually will have a bomb soon. Surely, by his logic, he is actually duty bound to do something this time?!

BV

I imagine so, but I don’t see the cast of characters expanding beyond the current combatants should the shooting resume. I have to imagine that many regional capitals are quietly cheering Israel on plus who wants to run into the buzz saw that is the Israeli AF?

[Lonewolf_50]

Bob V, what I think has the Iranians concerned - beyond the harm done to their national air defense system of late - is that the more this "didn't really break that much stuff" narrative expands it may goad Pres Trump into sending another raid into Iran to (among other things) make the rubble bounce or take out additional infrastructure that is expensive to replace.
And I think that Bibi may be counting on that. (That's cynical old me thinking that).

[Bob Viking]

LW50

My thoughts entirely. Netanyahu is after any excuse and will gladly cheerlead from the sidelines if Uncle Donald launches another wave. I wonder if any retaliation would be directed at the same target as last time.

BV

[Sobelena]

LW: As already touched upon by Avman in post 2422

[petit plateau]

A forever war with Iran, has consequences for Ukraine's access to Patriot stocks.

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by petit plateau

A forever war with Iran, has consequences for Ukraine's access to Patriot stocks.

That war has been ongoing, at one level or another, since about 1980. Remember Operation Praying Mantis?

[safetypee]

What happens now?

The US - Trump, repeats previous mistakes of intervention; the use of military power but, miscalculating or failing to plan ahead.

What happens now?
"The war of 2025 did not produce peace. It produced recalibration. Israel emerges militarily capable but politically shaken and economically strained. Iran, though damaged, stands more unified, with fewer international constraints on its nuclear ambitions. Its crackdown on dissent, withdrawal from IAEA oversight, and deepening ties to rival powers suggest a regime preparing not for collapse, but for survival, perhaps even confrontation."

"Regime change cannot be engineered through precision strikes. Tactical brilliance does not guarantee strategic victory. And the assumption that Iran could unravel like Syria was not strategy, it was hubris.
Both sides now better understand each other’s strengths and limits, a clarity that could deter future war – or make the next one more dangerous. In a region shaped by trauma and shifting power, mistaking resistance for weakness or pause for peace remains the gravest miscalculation."

https://theconversation.com/the-us-a...ampaign=Latest from The Conversation for July 2 2025 - 3436235003&utm_content=Latest from The Conversation for July 2 2025 -

[RatherBeFlying]

Update on Fordow Damage Assessment

You Tube

The geology now seems to be granite - a much tougher nut to crack than limestone / dolomite. Nonetheless the volume of shattered rock is likely immense.

Comments on the video point out that facility damage depends on whether ventilation tunnels give a straight shot or are offset enough to mitigate damage. Wouldn't be surprised if Mossad supplied plans to Pentagon.

Bunker designers henceforth will be well advised to route ventilation shafts away from vulnerable areas.

Also informative comments from ex-military on fusing strategies.

[DogTailRed2]

If Iran gets the bomb won't that make the region safer?
With the bomb no one can bomb anyone. A stalemate will ensue.

[West Coast]

Originally Posted by DogTailRed2

If Iran gets the bomb won't that make the region safer?
With the bomb no one can bomb anyone. A stalemate will ensue.

Appears that guidance didn’t make it to India and Pakistan.

[Lonewolf_50]

They haven't nuked each other yet, so maybe they did get the memo?

[Coupez]

Originally Posted by DogTailRed2

With the bomb no one can bomb anyone. A stalemate will ensue.

This only applies if both sides are rational actors who are not seeking the end of the world.

[bilby_qld]

Originally Posted by Coupez

This only applies if both sides are rational actors who are not seeking the end of the world.

"We'll try to stay serene and calm,
When Alabama gets the bomb!"

- Tom Lehrer, Who's Next?