Iran

[ORAC]

I’m aware of the capability - but all it will tell you is that thousands of vehicles visited thousands of locations without giving you any way of knowing what they were carrying and what went on every time they stopped.

The USA can’t even track its own HEU - let alone anyone else’s.

https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-b...eapons-program

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_affair

[Recc]

Originally Posted by tartare

HEU possibly under the scenarios you outline, but tracking of hundreds of targets by IMINT or ELINT is indeed feasible.
These systems deployed at altitude can visually monitor an entire city, and effectively re-wind what they see.
Google the term Wide Area Persistent Surveillance.
Effectively they are military digital video surveillance recorders paired with highly sophisticated multi-lens camera systems, and software which can stitch the imagery together enabling analysts to zoom in on parts of the image - highlight an object or person of interest and then backtrack a path.

Let's assume (for the sake of argument) that US intel can track every vehicle movement in Iran with 100% accuracy. Now consider that the Iranians move all of their 400kg of HEU in 1 vehicle movement and the US know exactly which day this will occur. They observe 50 vehicle movements at the Fordow facility on that day and each of these vehicles moves to a logistics hub/ warehouse. There are a further 50 vehicle movements from each of these hubs each going to a final location. That is now 2500 possible locations for your HEU on day 1! Now consider that 50% of these secondary movements are also to hubs, and that vehicle movements follow the same pattern the next day. By the end of day 2, you have ~63k possible locations and by day 3 you are close to 1M. If you target trucks as they leave the facility, that might be doable with an airstrike. Otherwise, you will need additional sources of intelligence.

In reality, the HEU will be widely dispersed with multiple dummy containers and a very few people who know which is which. Logistically it is much easier to store HEU out of the reach of US and Israeli weapons than it is to do the same with a processing facility. I have no doubt that Israeli intelligence capabilities in Iran are exceptionally good but I very much doubt that they (or the US) have the capability to target Iranian HEU inventory with airpower alone.

Edit: This should not be a surprise to anybody who has posted a letter. Imagine claiming that because you saw me post a letter, and you could log movements of every postal truck, that you would be able to tell who I had sent it to without seeing the envelope!

[EDLB]

A bit technical logic applied. With the facilities in place why should Iran have stopped at 60% enrichment. They did likely let the centrifuges run to get weapon grade material. Then disperse it with camouflaged transportation to various location. A mule carriage will do. Not much shielding for highly enriched Uranium metal is required. By all means we can assume that they already have some working uranium bombs. But now they are in the same problem as all others with nuclear bombs. You can not use them, otherwise your country will be toast. Israel has a working second strike capability with their subs, and Iran knows this. All large population centers in Iran would be glassed if they would use a single nuke against Israel.

[Recc]

Also keep in mind that the target we are talking about here is nothing more than a lump of metal. The lump of metal can be bent broken warped twisted or perforated and it retains exactly the same value to the weapons programme (just so long as you can find all the pieces). Designing a strike that can functionally 'destroy' small disks of metal is (I would imagine) not a trivial undertaking, even if you know to the nearest cm where they are.

[ORAC]

At the latest press conference with Trump Hegseth stated that each of the two targets (Fordo and Natanz) were hit with 6 bombs.

Since each B-2 are reported as carrying 2 MOBs and seven were reported on the raid it would seem the seventh was an inflight spare in case any of the others had a problem en-route or over the target. With the small inventory of such weapons presumably they carried them home unused.

A bit of a bummer for the crew concerned.

[CLUTTER]

Compare CNN of today with CNN during Desert Storm. The "N" in the middle has become "n".

[T28B]

As neither mod nor admin

Originally Posted by CLUTTER

Compare CNN of today with CNN during Desert Storm. The "N" in the middle has become "n".

An old friend of mine, now deceased, used to refer to it as the "Cable Noise Network."
From our correspondent in Doha. The base being referred to is Al Udeid.

As for Qatar it is absolutely ops normal. The base is fully open again, the city is open for business and even the airport has mostly worked through the backlog. I took my family to the airport last night and their flight departed on time.

This being said, I think the repercussions will be felt for a while yet. There is a full court press on positive publicity for sure and I think the powers that be are secretly very concerned about an exodus of expats.
People have now ‘seen behind the curtain’. It will be interesting to have face to face chats with people at work to see what the general feeling is.
And remember it’s the wives not the spouses that will drive the decision making. Us ex military people can be remarkably sanguine about the whole thing but the families were decidedly unamused by the events of Monday night.
I had actually decided last summer that we would leave this summer and was very lucky to secure a good job at home.

My family won’t be back. With summer leave taken into account I only have a few weeks left before I leave permanently as well.

[TWT]

Originally Posted by EDLB

By all means we can assume that they already have some working uranium bombs. But now they are in the same problem as all others with nuclear bombs. You can not use them, otherwise your country will be toast. Israel has a working second strike capability with their subs, and Iran knows this. All large population centers in Iran would be glassed if they would use a single nuke against Israel.

I thought it was usual for 'new' nuclear powers to first do an underground test explosion to 'announce' their entry into the club.
The resultant seismic signature is usually attributed to a nuke by those countries with suitable monitoring equipment and
scientific knowhow.

[Coupez]

Originally Posted by EDLB

All large population centers in Iran would be glassed if they would use a single nuke against Israel.

Well, that's the conventional 1950's paradigm. Mutual Assured Destruction, aka "MAD". But would that really make sense for Israel?

Palestinian Arabs hate Israeli Jews, that goes back to Isaac vs. Ishmael, or maybe even Cain vs. Abel. Persians do not. Minority Iranian peoples certainly do not. Hatred of Israel is only a creature of the fanatical Islamic government.

So why would Israel, even if mortally wounded, play into the mullah's hands by exterminating millions of Iranians? Where's the benefit? No amount of revenge killing would put Tel Aviv and Haifa back together.

Furthermore, what's the deterrent value of a gun with an empty magazine, so to speak? If Israel expends its entire nuclear arsenal on a revenge attack, no cards are left to play.

Seems more likely that the Israeli response would be directed at the Islamic regime, its leadership, its forces, and its symbols than at the general population. And that the Israelis would never expend all their nuclear ordnance.

And more likely that Israel would be willing to carry out a nuclear preemptive strike, since they don't have the strategic depth to absorb the damage from a first strike.

[EDLB]

Think of Israel. They did it with less fanfare. Oppenheimer did not see it necessary to test the simple gun type uranium bomb later used in Hiroshima.
Israel will not use them in first strike for the same reason than everyone else. However they learned the hard way that if attacked you have to make a point.

[pr00ne]

Originally Posted by megan

I've always considered that anyone occupying a cockpit, irrespective of aircraft type, and engaged in combat, can quite rightly call themselves a "fighter pilot". Combat is all about fighting after all, I get the point you're making though.

In my day If you'd walked into a FJ crew room as a Vulcan pilot and tried that approach you would have been bantered to hell and back!

[KiloB]

Originally Posted by pr00ne

In my day If you'd walked into a FJ crew room as a Vulcan pilot and tried that approach you would have been bantered to hell and back!

Even if, at any sort of reasonable altitude, you could have out turned them with ease?

[SASless]

Information taken from a news article quoting the Israel Prime Minister.......who do we believe and why?

Also, a Wiki article discussing the Iranian Nuclear Program starting back under the Shah leading up to today. Remember Mr. Trump arrived on the scene in January 2017 for four years and again in January 2025.

The Prime Minister’s Office then issued a brief statement summarizing Israel’s findings on behalf of the Israel Atomic Energy Commission (IAEC):
The devastating US strike on Fordow destroyed the site’s critical infrastructure and rendered the enrichment facility inoperable. We assess that the American strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, combined with Israeli strikes on other elements of Iran’s military nuclear program, has set back Iran’s ability to develop nuclear weapons by many years.

The achievement can continue indefinitely if Iran does not get access to nuclear material.

[pr00ne]

Originally Posted by KiloB

Even if, at any sort of reasonable altitude, you could have out turned them with ease?

Yes, even more if they had tried that nomsense! A BVR before they even knew that we were there would have stopped that silliness.

[RAFEngO74to09]

WH Press Sec debunking nonsense from fake news channels about the success of Op MIDNIGHT HAMMER - President Trump and SecDef did the same at the NATO Summit

Rapid Response 47 on X: "“No other president in history could've ever dreamed of such a success. That’s exactly why the Fake News media is now trying to demean and undermine the President," says @PressSec on the obliteration of Iran's nuclear facilities. "We've seen this playbook be run before." https://t.co/a1KKVSdSjq" / Twitter

Rapid Response 47 on X: ".@PressSec: "That CNN story does not change the facts: There was a TOTAL and COMPLETE obliteration of Iran's nuclear facilities, and because of @POTUS' strike... Iran no longer has the capability to produce a nuclear weapon..."https://t.co/RThvSDh3MF" / Twitter

[RAFEngO74to09]

12 x F-22A that were deployed for Op MIDNIGHT HAMMER leaving the CENTCOM AOR and will be returning to RAF Lakenheath, UK today

[RAFEngO74to09]

F-22As landing at RAF Lakenheath - from 11:40

You Tube

[RAFEngO74to09]

DNI Statement

Disclose.tv on X: "JUST IN - Director of National Intelligence Gabbard says that "new intelligence confirms" the destruction of Iran's nuclear facilities. https://t.co/4IZfEsOGnK" / Twitter

[dead_pan]

Is that the same Tulsi Gabbard who said the Iranians didn't have a nuke programme a few short weeks ago?

The only reason they're pushing back on this is because they don't want to have to go back in again (and possibly again, and again...). The Iranians will be enjoying the fact that they are off the hook

[RatherBeFlying]

A foundation engineer's take:

You Tube

There's a comment from a mining engineer on underground blasting. The kinetic impact would be significant as well as the blast. Much depends on the proximity of the detonations to the facilities.

If no significant damage, the regime may decide to pretend obliteration and let Trump declare victory