Direct rule from Scotland?
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^^
Nope...think it through.
If NS gets into to some sort of coalition (even a loose one) she will be faced with compromising the very politics which are proving so popular in Scotland, or pulling the rug from under Milibrand in short order, which will simply lead to another general election.
The danger to the UK from a SNP/Labour coalition is emphatically not constitutional change or a massive shift in the main political landscape. The danger is economic & political uncertainty & stasis for an indeterminate period.
If the jocks still want independence (and many want it more than ever) their best hope is a continuation of the current coalition, which will polarise and harden feelings on both sides of the border. (as evidenced by Cameron's latest pledge: English laws for English voters.)
IF the SNP win their 40 seats and end up supporting a minority government, we get the situation where a group of MPs, who we didn't have any chance of voting for, and whose whole raison d'etre is the break up of the nation, holding the rest of us to ransom.
If NS gets into to some sort of coalition (even a loose one) she will be faced with compromising the very politics which are proving so popular in Scotland, or pulling the rug from under Milibrand in short order, which will simply lead to another general election.
The danger to the UK from a SNP/Labour coalition is emphatically not constitutional change or a massive shift in the main political landscape. The danger is economic & political uncertainty & stasis for an indeterminate period.
If the jocks still want independence (and many want it more than ever) their best hope is a continuation of the current coalition, which will polarise and harden feelings on both sides of the border. (as evidenced by Cameron's latest pledge: English laws for English voters.)
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Agreed, the danger isn't constitutional change; it's the firm tartan grasp on the nations purse-strings which will ensue and that Alex Salmond is already openly boasting about.
Alwayslookingup #56
If Scottish Government income was reduced to the level of UK per capita income it would mean a cut of 7.3 Billion per annum. Even if the whole 4.745 Billion of Oil and Gas Revenue ( Including the Southern North Sea ) was allocated to Scotland it would still leave a shortfall of 2.5 Billion. As Scottish average income is some 10% lower than in England, Tax rates would have to rise in Scotland to pay for it, or expenditure reduced.
Meanwhile I will enjoy my Tax cut.
" How hard is that to accept? " - Not very hard at all.
If Scottish Government income was reduced to the level of UK per capita income it would mean a cut of 7.3 Billion per annum. Even if the whole 4.745 Billion of Oil and Gas Revenue ( Including the Southern North Sea ) was allocated to Scotland it would still leave a shortfall of 2.5 Billion. As Scottish average income is some 10% lower than in England, Tax rates would have to rise in Scotland to pay for it, or expenditure reduced.
Meanwhile I will enjoy my Tax cut.
" How hard is that to accept? " - Not very hard at all.
Tengah Type
So we run a deficit. Where have I heard that before? In fact, pre 1707 the then independent Scotland had no debt. In order to balance the share of the English debt it would become liable for, a sum of money, called "The Equivalent", was paid to Scotland. Ironically part of this was used as the seed capital for the formation of, The Royal Bank of Scotland!
So, I'll take my chances. Can you fix it?!!
Meanwhile, to return to a military aviation theme. Although it's not part of this election, but in the event of Scotland becoming independent, what happens to Lossiemouth, and all the lovely low flying training areas north of Hadrian's Wall? What will become England's Garvie Island, somewhere on the Isles of Scilly?
So we run a deficit. Where have I heard that before? In fact, pre 1707 the then independent Scotland had no debt. In order to balance the share of the English debt it would become liable for, a sum of money, called "The Equivalent", was paid to Scotland. Ironically part of this was used as the seed capital for the formation of, The Royal Bank of Scotland!
So, I'll take my chances. Can you fix it?!!
Meanwhile, to return to a military aviation theme. Although it's not part of this election, but in the event of Scotland becoming independent, what happens to Lossiemouth, and all the lovely low flying training areas north of Hadrian's Wall? What will become England's Garvie Island, somewhere on the Isles of Scilly?
I have spent quite a lot of time in scotland during the last 12 months and would ask the english forum members to remember that many many scots do not share the views of the SNP and do not wish to see the UK break up.
TBH - the SNP spokespersons always remind me of angry 1970's trade unionists.
The people who wish to remain 'british' tend to be quieter than the SNP's !
The main uk parties do have to try and wheel out people with more 'street cred' than Darling and 'Broon' though
TBH - the SNP spokespersons always remind me of angry 1970's trade unionists.
The people who wish to remain 'british' tend to be quieter than the SNP's !
The main uk parties do have to try and wheel out people with more 'street cred' than Darling and 'Broon' though
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longer ron wrote:
I have spent quite a lot of time in scotland during the last 12 months and would ask the english forum members to remember that many many scots do not share the views of the SNP and do not wish to see the UK break up.
TBH - the SNP spokespersons always remind me of angry 1970's trade unionists.
The people who wish to remain 'british' tend to be quieter than the SNP's !
Absolutely true! my Scottish friends are appalled at what is going on , allegedly 'in their name'.
I have spent quite a lot of time in scotland during the last 12 months and would ask the english forum members to remember that many many scots do not share the views of the SNP and do not wish to see the UK break up.
TBH - the SNP spokespersons always remind me of angry 1970's trade unionists.
The people who wish to remain 'british' tend to be quieter than the SNP's !
Absolutely true! my Scottish friends are appalled at what is going on , allegedly 'in their name'.
Ron,
that's stating the bleedin' obvious. That's like saying the majority of English people don't like Labour, or the Tories, but under the FPTP electoral system have to put up with a Government they didn't elect. Far better with a proportional system, some say. But wait, isn't that exactly what we have in the Scottish Parliament. And who was elected into government there in 2011 by an absolute majority, breaking a system that was specifically designed to ensure no single party could achieve an overall majority?.....
In truth, TOFO in Post #58 above hit the nail on the head when he said;-
"The vote is predominantly ordered around age demographics. (my emphasis). Every morning I sat in the gym sauna and listened to 40 plus Scots ranting about wee eck. Every day I went to work and listened to 20 plus Scots ranting about Captain Darling."
I can't improve on that.
that's stating the bleedin' obvious. That's like saying the majority of English people don't like Labour, or the Tories, but under the FPTP electoral system have to put up with a Government they didn't elect. Far better with a proportional system, some say. But wait, isn't that exactly what we have in the Scottish Parliament. And who was elected into government there in 2011 by an absolute majority, breaking a system that was specifically designed to ensure no single party could achieve an overall majority?.....
In truth, TOFO in Post #58 above hit the nail on the head when he said;-
"The vote is predominantly ordered around age demographics. (my emphasis). Every morning I sat in the gym sauna and listened to 40 plus Scots ranting about wee eck. Every day I went to work and listened to 20 plus Scots ranting about Captain Darling."
I can't improve on that.
It might be a slight over simplification to say it is just age related !
Although some younger people might just be a little more naive about trusting any politician
Although some younger people might just be a little more naive about trusting any politician
Ron,
correct, there are other factors to consider. The best analysis of voting patterns I have come across is by Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University:-
So Who Voted Yes and Who Voted No? - What Scotland Thinks
From this lengthy article:-
"Between them the two exercises confirm the presence of four patterns that were evident in the polls throughout most of the campaign: women, older people, those in more affluent circumstances and those who were born elsewhere in the UK were all relatively reluctant to vote Yes."
correct, there are other factors to consider. The best analysis of voting patterns I have come across is by Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University:-
So Who Voted Yes and Who Voted No? - What Scotland Thinks
From this lengthy article:-
"Between them the two exercises confirm the presence of four patterns that were evident in the polls throughout most of the campaign: women, older people, those in more affluent circumstances and those who were born elsewhere in the UK were all relatively reluctant to vote Yes."
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Every morning I sat in the gym sauna and listened to 40 plus Scots ranting about wee eck. Every day I went to work and listened to 20 plus Scots ranting about Captain Darling.
Yes the geographical split was my guess,I do worry about what would happen in scotland if independence actually occurs... as I said on here before - far better to have the damned english to blame for everything than turn inwards and have internal strife - which would be almost inevitable once the country went bankrupt.
I am on the verge of returning to scotland after many years away and am reluctant to invest any capital in property etc because of the fear of the possibility of independence -
I know many people in scotland - none want independence and they are all hard workers !
I am on the verge of returning to scotland after many years away and am reluctant to invest any capital in property etc because of the fear of the possibility of independence -
I know many people in scotland - none want independence and they are all hard workers !
Willard, I think he meant 40 plus as in over forty years old, same for twenty plus.
Nobody's bitten yet about Lossie and the LFAs or Garvie Island in the event of Scottish Independence? A couple of years ago that would have been Lossie, Kinloss & Leuchars, but we know who closed the latter two RAF stations. I say RAF as there is still a military capability, just not light blue. not even bright yellow helicopters, as even that capability's been privatised!
Nobody's bitten yet about Lossie and the LFAs or Garvie Island in the event of Scottish Independence? A couple of years ago that would have been Lossie, Kinloss & Leuchars, but we know who closed the latter two RAF stations. I say RAF as there is still a military capability, just not light blue. not even bright yellow helicopters, as even that capability's been privatised!
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Willard, I think he meant 40 plus as in over forty years old, same for twenty plus.
Nobody's bitten yet about Lossie and the LFAs or Garvie Island in the event of Scottish Independence?
AS based his campaigning on the idea that everybody would have got round the table and carved everything up in a very reasoned and sensible fashion. I am FAR from convinced that is the way it would have played. I have a feeling that the Scots would have faced a united, angry and vindictive rUK, much as Ireland did when they went their own way...and it took them fifty years and more to "normalise" their state.
Like I said...it would have been (and in the future, will be) an adventure...but those that think things would have got better overnight (or even in their lifetime) are naive beyond belief.
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TOFO
Perhaps, but while the independent Scots wait for their circumstances to improve they will be consoled by the fact that they are no longer part of an economy which is run largely in the interests of the international banking community.
Like I said...it would have been (and in the future, will be) an adventure...but those that think things would have got better overnight (or even in their lifetime) are naive beyond belief.
Western Countries are run by big business - not by governments LOL
The SNP leadership do not have a clue about running a country...as TOFO posted - nobody really knows how the break up would actually be worked out but we can be sure that it would cost every tax payer in the former UK a shed load of money - and for what ?
So a few people can do a power grab LOL
The grass will not be greener on the other side when you start paying through the nose to split from rUK !
The SNP leadership do not have a clue about running a country...as TOFO posted - nobody really knows how the break up would actually be worked out but we can be sure that it would cost every tax payer in the former UK a shed load of money - and for what ?
So a few people can do a power grab LOL
The grass will not be greener on the other side when you start paying through the nose to split from rUK !
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The SNP leadership have been running a country for the last 8 years.
Plenty of people know how the creation of the two successor states would work. It's happened 150 times in the last 70 years.
Plenty of people know how the creation of the two successor states would work. It's happened 150 times in the last 70 years.
Ron
"The SNP leadership do not have a clue about running a country"
Little bit off the mark there. As I intimated in a post above, the SNP have actually been the Government in Scotland since 2007. In the first four years they ran as a minority govt, since 2011 they have been in majority, in a proportional system designed to ensure NO one Party should achieve a majority, but they did. So, contrary to your assertion, they have extensive experience of running a country, both as a minority government AND a majority government.
Remind me, just how much experience did Cameron/Clegg/Osborne have of running a country before 2010? And, as is looking increasingly likely, how much experience have Miliband and Co had of running a country?
Nobody ever said Independence was going to be easy, in fact it was anticipated life would potentially be worse in the initial few years. But, as has been alluded to above, at least we'd be running our own affairs, and not have the strings being pulled by banks and business interests who's personnel pay little or no tax here due to their very convenient non dom status.
Edited to say "perthsaint beat me to it"
"The SNP leadership do not have a clue about running a country"
Little bit off the mark there. As I intimated in a post above, the SNP have actually been the Government in Scotland since 2007. In the first four years they ran as a minority govt, since 2011 they have been in majority, in a proportional system designed to ensure NO one Party should achieve a majority, but they did. So, contrary to your assertion, they have extensive experience of running a country, both as a minority government AND a majority government.
Remind me, just how much experience did Cameron/Clegg/Osborne have of running a country before 2010? And, as is looking increasingly likely, how much experience have Miliband and Co had of running a country?
Nobody ever said Independence was going to be easy, in fact it was anticipated life would potentially be worse in the initial few years. But, as has been alluded to above, at least we'd be running our own affairs, and not have the strings being pulled by banks and business interests who's personnel pay little or no tax here due to their very convenient non dom status.
Edited to say "perthsaint beat me to it"
The difference is - they are running it as part of the United Kingdom - with money supplied by taxpayers including English taxpayers .
Funnily enough if the Union is split - the English are as likely to say 'up yours' and give away as little as possible - and all the money will then be coming from Scottish taxpayers - huge difference
They will not be part of the EU (unless the rules are rewritten ) there will likely be a big pull out of businesses because of big uncertainties.
You only have to look at me - I am reluctant to buy a house in scotland in case the SNP do get independence - read that across to big business
.Funnily enough if the Union is split - the English are as likely to say 'up yours' and give away as little as possible - and all the money will then be coming from Scottish taxpayers - huge difference
They will not be part of the EU (unless the rules are rewritten ) there will likely be a big pull out of businesses because of big uncertainties.
You only have to look at me - I am reluctant to buy a house in scotland in case the SNP do get independence - read that across to big business
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And in that 8 years of SNP run government, council tax has been frozen, resulting in cutbacks in council provided public services, which tend to slip under the media radar.
Anyway, I thought this thread was about the influence the SNP would have in the UK post the May 2015 election, not what may have happened following last years referendum, the result of which was clearly in favour of continuing as a member state of the UK
Anyway, I thought this thread was about the influence the SNP would have in the UK post the May 2015 election, not what may have happened following last years referendum, the result of which was clearly in favour of continuing as a member state of the UK