Direct rule from Scotland?
 

Has anyone considered the post-election defence implications of the quite likely event of a collapse in the Scottish Labour vote? The SNP have been fully upfront on their intention to pull any political levers at their disposal to achieve their aims. What will this mean for Milliband owing homage to Salmond? SNP would have an effective veto on key votes. Could this be the means of achieving their key pledge of removing Trident from Scotland?

Shot one,
Errr-yes......

Why do you think 'call me Dave' kept pressing '2 kitchens Mili-Bland' on this the other day? The SNP have hit a raw nerve with Trident in Labour's core vote; instinctively, they are unilateralist disarmers (and see the 'saved' cash being diverted straight to the NHS and Welfare) but are warned not to say so due to the the memories of Michael Foot's "suicide note" manifesto. Angus Robertson challenged Yvette Cooper on this issue on R4 the other day saying that 75% of Labour voters wanted to scrap Trident and all they were doing by making it a pre-pact red line was keeping the Labour leadership honest. Nicely done it was too.....prepare to see little Mili-Bland in Salmonds pocket on every street corner soon....

Time to hibernate till it's all over.......

Over the years the Labour leaders have supported the deterrent - Atlee started the bomb programme when the Yanks dumped us at the end of the war, Gaitskill fought the unilateralists, Wilson & Callaghan approved Chevaline, Blair kicked off the "Successor" programme in 2006

The question is would the PLP do a deal with the SNP?

And if they did how high on the list would be the removal of Trident be?

I can see it becoming only an "aspiration" while the SNP concentrate on getting more cash and powers from London so they can get their really overriding target which is a fully independent Scotland

Being a gambling man I rather suspect we are in for a chapter of political turmoil throughout the UK, which might drag on for quite a long time.

With the likelihood of any sort of one party majority looking ever less likely, we could see an unholy mess of king-making in order get some sort of administration in power.

But these parties (and the politicians that make them) do have to keep one eye on their popular mandates (especially in this regard, the SNP) or they will find themselves in for a damn good-kicking downstream.

I could certainly see a short term pact between Labour and the SNP...closely followed by a commons defeat and government collapse, the first time they try and apply a whip to any meaningful legislation.

Best just ignore it all and get on with your lives.

"Would labour do a deal with the SNP?" Being as Gordon did his best to stitch up a Lib Dem partnership that would have fallen not far short of a coup last time, I don't think there's any doubt about the answer to that one!

And it's not just about Trident. Their yanking of the purse strings in debates and votes far removed from defence could have serious impact.

'We live in interesting times' is sounding passe


We live in increasingly interesting times.


Time to read The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire again. History appears to be repeating itself.

I think there may be may elements of the public sector that would be happy to see a protracted period of negotiations in order to form a government if only so that they can be allowed to get on with their work without a politician peering over their shoulder and threatening to change everything again.

What gets me is Scotland had a resolution on binning Trident as part of the independence debate and it was firmly rejected, why then are these things back on the table..

I'm not sure that anything was firmly rejected in the referendum. I seem to recall it was a pretty close-run thing. Setting that aside though, I think most commentators would suggest that it was independence rather than the Trident issue that was rejected.

Look on the bright side, if it is binned then Cameron (and any other UK leader) will no longer be able to hide behind the 2% for defence figure, unless they are to significantly increase spending on conventional capabilities.

Should Labour be the largest party there should be no problem in forming a minority goverment as long as they are not outnumbered by the right wing parties. They are not going to lose a vote of confidence as the SNP will support them for that and their Socialist agenda. Should the SNP insist on Trident being scrapped as a condition for their voting support Milliband will tell them to get knotted and that is all the SNP can really do,

That's either a whopper of an oxymoron, or a statement of the blindingly obvious (or both).

Minority governments in the UK are inherently unstable and short-lived for the rather obvious reason that they can't push through legislation.

The UK has only had three minority governments in the last 40 odd years (or longer). One lasted 7 months, one lasted 2 years and collapsed after one of these "informal pacts" got sh1tcanned, and the only other one came about because of attrition during office of a small majority towards the end of its term.

Chill out, sit back and watch the fun unfold. Don't worry, the world will still spin.

Popcorn time : relax & watch them(whoever) sell their souls to the highest bidder. I don't return to UK until 5 days after polling (postal vote arranged) so may miss most of the fun. Prepare for run on the £.

"Time to read The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire again. History appears to be repeating itself."

Not sure - I'm seriously short on both Bread AND Circuses.............

"I don't return to UK until 5 days after polling (postal vote arranged) so may miss most of the fun."

no hope - the AVERAGE time it takes to form a coalition in European countries is 34 days - and they have years of practise

the good news is that generally countries are better off when the politicains are arguing and not in power

To see a coalition gov being negotiated watch Israel for the next few days or maybe weeks.

At least both sides of the political spectrum in Israel have a decent defence policy and, almost, as many nukes as us.

And more importantly the will to use them.

more Isuspect

and a really itchy trigger ifnger


although they deny everything

I think we see unfolding a massive example of the "law of unintended consequences" - voters, with massive encouragement from Conservative and Labour, reject independence for Scotland. As a consequence, it seems that the SNP (rot their socks) may have the balance of power in the UK Parliament with a relatively small number of MPs. Perhaps we should have let the bu@@ers go quietly

pre 1914 there were a lot of Irish Nats in parliament and they caused a lot of ructions.......

everntually we let them go....

We are less and less united as Britons
 

Strikes me our islands are simply so less and less as one nation and its fair for the politicians to reflect this.
Might be a good idea for a few pruners to get out of their warm holes and actually travel around and listen to the many different types of people within the islands before lambasting them about their voting preferences.
The United Kingdom is a busted flush.