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If Scotland Declares UDI..........

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If Scotland Declares UDI..........

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Old 8th Jun 2013, 08:37
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Maybe the other half of the town that can't find work will vote for him.
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Old 8th Jun 2013, 10:04
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Originally Posted by TT2
A UKIP candidate in Aberdeen is an amusing concept. How exactly is said person going to justify their anti immigration policy given that half the Baltic states seem to live in town. (And extremely well integrated they are too). Friendly bunch.
Indeed Another example of where Scotland's needs are not being served by the centralised Westminster party policies. Scotland needs immigration and those who come do tend to have little of the problems reported elsewhere re integration. We are all Jock Tamsons bairns as they say.

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Old 8th Jun 2013, 15:51
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Cameron & Co really must believe in a United Kingdom

Any measure of party advantage would show that if Scotland departs England & Wales will be Tory for ever
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Old 8th Jun 2013, 17:13
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Originally Posted by tonker:7883247
Maybe the other half of the town that can't find work will vote for him.
There's no shortage of work in Aberdeen tonker. Quite the opposite, a severe lack of people to fill posts and an aging workforce that started in the early years of the oil boom now coming up to retirement. Opportunities galore for ex airforce people.
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Old 8th Jun 2013, 20:08
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Talking of retirement in Scotland,

BBC News - Scottish referendum: New independence pension schemes 'like building an NHS'

Two sides to this political coin of course, but lots of worries about affordability.
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Old 9th Jun 2013, 10:06
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One of the big problems in Aberdeen has always been the split between the oil patch & the rest - the shortages Outlaw Pete is talking about are mainly in jobs & professions that require high qualifications and experience like Petroleum Engineering and Process Engineering

The days when it was all muscle and few brains are long gone even on the drill floor

When the oil price is up the city is full of well-paid incomers who help support (service industries and transport) the local population much of which is not well qualified. Places like Torry and Northfield are like Blackbird Leys, Drumchapel or parts of SE London - poor people with a lot of social problems

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Old 9th Jun 2013, 10:36
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Originally Posted by Heathrow Harry
One of the big problems in Aberdeen has always been the split between the oil patch & the rest - the shortages Outlaw Pete is talking about are mainly in jobs & professions that require high qualifications and experience like Petroleum Engineering and Process Engineering

The days when it was all muscle and few brains are long gone even on the( sic shop floor) drill floor

When the oil price is up the city is full of well-paid incomers who help support (service industries and transport) the local population much of which is not well qualified. Places like Torry and Northfield are like Blackbird Leys, Drumchapel or parts of SE London - poor people with a lot of social problems

Indeed a pattern that is no different from any other conurbation in the UK or elsewhere for that matter. The disparity between affluent and poor most markedly exemplified as you say in London. Aberdeen has weathered the financial storm well; I believe it was the only area in the UK outside of London to reflect positive growth in the last quarter.

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Old 9th Jun 2013, 10:56
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Originally Posted by Heathrow Harry:7884512
One of the big problems in Aberdeen has always been the split between the oil patch & the rest - the shortages Outlaw Pete is talking about are mainly in jobs & professions that require high qualifications and experience like Petroleum Engineering and Process Engineering

The days when it was all muscle and few brains are long gone even on the drill floor

When the oil price is up the city is full of well-paid incomers who help support (service industries and transport) the local population much of which is not well qualified. Places like Torry and Northfield are like Blackbird Leys, Drumchapel or parts of SE London - poor people with a lot of social problems
Can't dispute much of that Harry although, as Tom points out, you'll see those social issues anywhere.

Companies are now so concerned about those skills shortages that many have taken to training newcomers to the industry who have little or no experience, even from older age groups (40-55). There's a new industrial estate being built in Dyce and that will offer many skilled and unskilled positions too.
Service leavers have a huge amount to offer and are being snapped up. Not just engineers either, I know of a highly experienced pilot who now delivers technical training. Very good at it he is too.

An interesting development is the emergence of an industrial estate in Forres which appears to be attracting oil and gas companies to that area. It's early days but a good sign for Morayshire.

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Old 10th Jun 2013, 12:13
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Aberdeen is probably the last "single industry" city in the UK - when the oil price is up the place booms and when it drops the place is like a ghost town

Certainly the price of things like houses bear little relationship to what affects them elsewhere in the UK

A mate of mine who was born in Aberdeenshire reckons that the families who ran Aberdeen before the oil are still the ones who run it largely today
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Old 10th Jun 2013, 16:07
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Old families?

Yup, whilst one would not like to use the 'Cartel' word - it is more or less the same families from 150 years ago who says what goes in industry. They ran the whaling fleets, then the fishing and bought up property like crazy.

Sent their kids off to be lawyers since they started to make serious loot, then later along an oil industry arrived throwing loot around like it was going out of fashion.........
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Old 10th Jun 2013, 20:12
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Originally Posted by Heathrow Harry
Aberdeen is probably the last "single industry" city in the UK - when the oil price is up the place booms and when it drops the place is like a ghost town

Certainly the price of things like houses bear little relationship to what affects them elsewhere in the UK

A mate of mine who was born in Aberdeenshire reckons that the families who ran Aberdeen before the oil are still the ones who run it largely today
Yes I'd agree there, Aberdeen certainly has a buoyant housing market, although I did not experience the ghost town effect you described when I lived there. But you are right that the main industry stems from the oil sector although it also has a thriving legal sector. One of the largest legal firms in Scotland has their main office in Aberdeen. Edinburgh and London are also similar I guess in that they are, as you describe "single industry cities" (finance). Again in both Edinburgh and London the cost of housing bears little relationship to what affects them elsewhere in the UK. I certainly benefited from that, our first house purchase being just outside Aberdeen. Aberdeen, London and Edinburgh are certainly among the wealth generators of the UK for sure. We could do with some more

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Old 10th Jun 2013, 20:27
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Originally Posted by TT2
Yup, whilst one would not like to use the 'Cartel' word - it is more or less the same families from 150 years ago who says what goes in industry. They ran the whaling fleets, then the fishing and bought up property like crazy.

Sent their kids off to be lawyers since they started to make serious loot, then later along an oil industry arrived throwing loot around like it was going out of fashion.........
Yup they were all down at Watford the other day for a get together with their extended clan - BBC News - Bilderberg: Protesters and conspiracy theory in Watford


This was another take on the family, apparently the BBC were co founders of the euro inspired by Nazi doctrine!! - 4.48 gets interesting but watch it all the way through if you have some time to spare. That dude needs to wear a tin foil hat.




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Old 10th Jun 2013, 20:39
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Originally Posted by Heathrow Harry:7885902
Aberdeen is probably the last "single industry" city in the UK - when the oil price is up the place booms and when it drops the place is like a ghost town

Certainly the price of things like houses bear little relationship to what affects them elsewhere in the UK

A mate of mine who was born in Aberdeenshire reckons that the families who ran Aberdeen before the oil are still the ones who run it largely today
Aberdeen is never like a ghost town. Not ever. When the oil prices drop many operators take advantage of the quieter spells offshore and send their equipment in for maintenance which inevitability makes the place even busier. It has a buoyant economy and has simply shugged the recession off. Single industry, maybe but happy to say a thriving one.
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Old 10th Jun 2013, 22:40
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OutlawPete

Aberdeen is never like a ghost town
Perhaps you weren't there in the late 1980s when whole streets were up for sale in the Bridge of Don with no takers. I was working on the 40s in the 1990s when the oil price dropped to $14 a barrel and there was a real sense of doom as it was costing $11 a barrel to uplift.

Recent history has been good for the N Sea. I started in 1990 and in the first five years there seemed to be new rigs going in all the time but recently, apart from West of Shetland there haven't been any major new rigs in the N sea - partly because drilling technology is more advanced so smaller fields can be picked off from existing rigs.

Don't believe, however, that the bad times of the late 1980s can't return.

HF
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Old 10th Jun 2013, 23:15
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Originally Posted by Hummingfrog
OutlawPete



Perhaps you weren't there in the late 1980s when whole streets were up for sale in the Bridge of Don with no takers. I was working on the 40s in the 1990s when the oil price dropped to $14 a barrel and there was a real sense of doom as it was costing $11 a barrel to uplift.

Recent history has been good for the N Sea. I started in 1990 and in the first five years there seemed to be new rigs going in all the time but recently, apart from West of Shetland there haven't been any major new rigs in the N sea - partly because drilling technology is more advanced so smaller fields can be picked off from existing rigs.

Don't believe, however, that the bad times of the late 1980s can't return.

HF
Mmm I remember the downturn in the 80s affecting the whole of the UK not confined to Aberdeen. I remember that not a single city in the UK did not contribute to the ranks of "the 1 in 10" as unemployment rose beyond 3 million by mid 1980. Ah yes I remember it well, dark days indeed exemplified by the brilliant Alan Bleasdale's "Boys From The Black Stuff" and Yosser Hughe's plaintiff cry "gizza a job". Yes the whole of the UK was in a dark place them not just Aberdeen. However I also remember my first job on leaving university (mid 80s) at Shell Esso in Aberdeen - plenty of optimism and investment in the sector all round. The oil companies are well versed in riding the cyclical nature of their business. As was said earlier by Outlaw, when the market down turns, attention turns to investment and long term planning. The same talent, energy and commitment prevails today in Aberdeen being the only area of the UK outside of London to remain in positive growth through the current financial crisis. I would have to agree with Outlaw - not bad for a ghost town and a lovely place to live and raise a family.

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Old 11th Jun 2013, 10:06
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Tom

I think the 1986 and 1999 price collapses really did hit Aberdeen very badly - I remember tales of people just upping sticks and going back to the USA and leaving the house keys in the door

The oil companies might be well versed in riding out cycles but they normally do it be laying waste to the workforce - management can't do anything about the price, nor the large lumps of steel they have building so to show their skills they fire a herd of people - and that goes in spades for the contractors and people like chopper operators

In 1986-88 the rest of the UK economy was booming but the oil patch was a disaster IIRC - a lot or people went into the City and never came back
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Old 11th Jun 2013, 10:46
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I was around in the eighties and HH is dead right. House owners were leaving thier keys on the building society's counter. We had offshore pilots leaving the industry for the airlines by the dozen. Bristow trained co-pilots were spending their leave in Florida building up their fixed wind hours economically to as ease their transition to BA and Virgin. Should a permanent economic subsistute for oil ever materialise then Aberdeen will be dead; and if it can out perform wind farms so will all of Scotland's economic forcasts.

But that will never happen; will it?

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Old 11th Jun 2013, 15:36
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Should a permanent economic subsistute for oil ever materialise then Aberdeen will be dead
Along with every other equivalent city servicing the same industry. I don't think wind farms come into it TBH. Fine for the next 25 years as a stop-gap 'til something better comes along. Hopefully 25 years hence tidal will be up and running. At least the tide is guaranteed, with only slack water being an issue. Wind however, don't blow all the time, or there can be too much of it sometimes, with interesting consequences...



Issues of no wind and/or slack water could of course be solved through energy storage - an interesting concept being developed for such here.

Scotland should be well placed for renewables. With the political will and suitable economic framework the eventual downturn in oil production/revenues can be (partly) mitigated.

It'd be nice to think that in 25 years the numbers of these could be reduced through increased generation from tidal energy...



Bit of an eyesore IMHO.
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Old 11th Jun 2013, 16:50
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Originally Posted by Heathrow Harry
Tom

I think the 1986 and 1999 price collapses really did hit Aberdeen very badly - I remember tales of people just upping sticks and going back to the USA and leaving the house keys in the door

The oil companies might be well versed in riding out cycles but they normally do it be laying waste to the workforce - management can't do anything about the price, nor the large lumps of steel they have building so to show their skills they fire a herd of people - and that goes in spades for the contractors and people like chopper operators

In 1986-88 the rest of the UK economy was booming but the oil patch was a disaster IIRC - a lot or people went into the City and never came back

Yup you are absolutely right - there are upturns in the oil industry and down turns, and Aberdeen has seen them both. But like I said before, this is the nature of our economy; unless of course you still believe Gordon Brown when he said he has eliminated boom and bust

My personal experience of the housing situation in Aberdeen was somewhat different than yours. I do remember however that home repossessions went through the roof across the UK as Mr Lawson and the Tories made a mess of the ERM membership (1992 in-out shake it all about). My own experience of the engineering sector, specifically within Shell Esso, and it was representative of the industry, was that we actually weathered it all pretty well. I honestly do not remember anyone having to post keys through letterboxes etc as you have said. As for contractors, well hey, contractors will always be vulnerable that goes without saying - it's in the nature of contract work and is the same in every sector. No, all-in-all Aberdeen and the engineering skills and expertise it as developed has been incredibly good for Scotland and the UK. Sure, oil will continue to fluctuate in price, and yes the oil industry will eventually decline just as jam and jute declined, steel and coal and of course the great Melton Mowbray pie industry. But for the time being our glass is definitely half full.

Last edited by TomJoad; 11th Jun 2013 at 22:03.
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Old 11th Jun 2013, 17:00
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Originally Posted by Fareastdriver
Should a permanent economic subsistute for oil ever materialise then Aberdeen will be dead; and if it can out perform wind farms so will all of Scotland's economic forcasts.
Maybees maybees not! Who knows, remember a couple of posts back somebody told us of the smart money in Aberdeen moving from whaling to oil - maybe they will be smart again and transition a declining industry to an emerging one. Oh that sounds like a plan! Yup maybe just maybe a transition plan would surface that oh lets take a punt at this would say capatalise on the expertise built on deep see exploration and fabrication to say renewable energy installations. I don't know maybe that wouldn't work. Tell you what how about we be optimistic for the future of our country eh
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