The South China Sea's Gathering Storm
Now the development of the bomb would have to be undetected, or at least plausibility deniable.
In fact, I'd not be surprised if that discussion has already been had. I think that happens a lot faster than an invasion can be mounted.
Fact is, when the Chinese allowed North Korea to get nuclear weapons, they ensured that all of the surrounding countries would perforce get nukes of their own. South Korea, Taiwan, perhaps Viet Nam are the immediate next players, we can assume that Japan, with an active 'space program' and a very large nuclear reactor park, has already taken all the necessary steps.
First things first. The CCP is going down a well trodden path. It's game plan seems to be :-
1. Start by picking upon a large and identifiable part of your own population and persecute them. This intimidates the remainder and curbs resistance to your following actions.
2. Deal with a part of your own country which is not under your direct control by formal agreement. Disregard that, march in, and take control.
3. Similarly march in to a neighbouring country whose population 100% in racial, cultural, and historical ways identifies similarly to your own but is recognised internationally as a separate state.
4. March into neighbouring states that have large such populations, but not 100% as in 3.
5. Then pick off the remaining neighbouring countries who have no such ties with you.
1 and 2 will probably be unopposed, just causing outrage. 3,4, and 5, if they have any sense, will already have prepared themselves for their turn in the manner that etudiant suggests.
1. Start by picking upon a large and identifiable part of your own population and persecute them. This intimidates the remainder and curbs resistance to your following actions.
2. Deal with a part of your own country which is not under your direct control by formal agreement. Disregard that, march in, and take control.
3. Similarly march in to a neighbouring country whose population 100% in racial, cultural, and historical ways identifies similarly to your own but is recognised internationally as a separate state.
4. March into neighbouring states that have large such populations, but not 100% as in 3.
5. Then pick off the remaining neighbouring countries who have no such ties with you.
1 and 2 will probably be unopposed, just causing outrage. 3,4, and 5, if they have any sense, will already have prepared themselves for their turn in the manner that etudiant suggests.
well they've taken 70 years to get this cunning plan underway......
they're now a World Power and behaving like all the other Powers did when they had the chance
they're now a World Power and behaving like all the other Powers did when they had the chance
picking fights everywhere ?
"They had the chance" because nobody stopped them until it was too late.
It isn't too late yet.
Whatever we might think are the rights or wrongs of the matter, nothing alters the fact that Taiwan's acquisition of nuclear weapons would be a red line for China.
"The apologists said much the same in the Thirties."
And ever since everyone has used it as an reason to start a war with someone............ history doesn't repeat itself exactly Chug.
I can remebr Cho En Lai was asked if they intended to invade India in '62 - he looked at the reporter and said "are you crazy? Why would we want to takeover another 500 million people (as it was in those days)? - Don't you think we have enough on our hands at home?"
And ever since everyone has used it as an reason to start a war with someone............ history doesn't repeat itself exactly Chug.
I can remebr Cho En Lai was asked if they intended to invade India in '62 - he looked at the reporter and said "are you crazy? Why would we want to takeover another 500 million people (as it was in those days)? - Don't you think we have enough on our hands at home?"
Asturias :-
The uniforms differ, as do the armbands and martial music I'll grant you, but the knock on the door at 0300 has the same result to all intents and purposes. This isn't China we have to face up to, it's the CCP. As to reassuring quotes from its leaders, Herr Shicklgruber told us that the Sudetenland was his last territorial claim. Didn't quite work out quite like that though, did it? When your neighbour starts frontier incidents best to take it as a prelude for something bigger. Alternatively, bury your head in the sand until it all goes away. It nearly got to Uncle Joe's dacha last time.
I agree that history doesn't repeat itself exactly. No-one says it does. But if we don't learn from it then it probably will repeat itself, exactly or not.
Time for a SE Asian NATO?
history doesn't repeat itself exactly Chug.
I can remebr Cho En Lai was asked if they intended to invade India in '62 - he looked at the reporter and said "are you crazy? Why would we want to takeover another 500 million people (as it was in those days)? - Don't you think we have enough on our hands at home?"
I can remebr Cho En Lai was asked if they intended to invade India in '62 - he looked at the reporter and said "are you crazy? Why would we want to takeover another 500 million people (as it was in those days)? - Don't you think we have enough on our hands at home?"
I agree that history doesn't repeat itself exactly. No-one says it does. But if we don't learn from it then it probably will repeat itself, exactly or not.
Time for a SE Asian NATO?
South Korea is surely looking at nukes and they just got the US ok for longer range (500 mile) solid fuel missiles. Others in the area will follow, to monitor the spread, I'll be waiting for Singapore to launch its first satellite .
Viet Nam, which has fought a recent war with China and which has territorial as well as Mekong water management grievances with China, is probably the next in line.
But Taiwan surely is the most threatened and the Xi approach to dissent must be very much in the minds of Taiwan's leaders.
In short, I believe that everyone in SE Asia will have nuclear weapons within another decade. Living within reach of a bully forces states to look for better protection than an evanescent 7th fleet.
etudiant
China has had such a policy for at least 25 years to my certain knowledge. On 15th April 2020, the Taiwan Affairs Office, an organ of The State Council, repeated it in the form of an article by a leading Chinese nuclear strategy expert, Yang Chengjun, Check out casus belli number 4. It's in Chinese but I'm sure you'll cope. In my experience such articles are cleared at a high level.
China has had such a policy for at least 25 years to my certain knowledge. On 15th April 2020, the Taiwan Affairs Office, an organ of The State Council, repeated it in the form of an article by a leading Chinese nuclear strategy expert, Yang Chengjun, Check out casus belli number 4. It's in Chinese but I'm sure you'll cope. In my experience such articles are cleared at a high level.
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"When your neighbour starts frontier incidents best to take it as a prelude for something bigger. " - well the Indo China border mess has been going on for the best part of 60 years so they're taking their time.
TBH I'm rather surprised they continue with building locations in the S China Sea - any analysis would indicate they have no real value if someone (anyone) comes out shooting
TBH I'm rather surprised they continue with building locations in the S China Sea - any analysis would indicate they have no real value if someone (anyone) comes out shooting
They seem to be meant more like tripwires. "You violated our airspace or sea and such so we are free to 'counter'-attack you" sort of thinking maybe? Just listen to the tone of those chinese comms the US Navy recorded and published.
Last edited by Less Hair; 12th Aug 2020 at 16:26.
etudiant
China has had such a policy for at least 25 years to my certain knowledge. On 15th April 2020, the Taiwan Affairs Office, an organ of The State Council, repeated it in the form of an article by a leading Chinese nuclear strategy expert, Yang Chengjun, Check out casus belli number 4. It's in Chinese but I'm sure you'll cope. In my experience such articles are cleared at a high level.
China has had such a policy for at least 25 years to my certain knowledge. On 15th April 2020, the Taiwan Affairs Office, an organ of The State Council, repeated it in the form of an article by a leading Chinese nuclear strategy expert, Yang Chengjun, Check out casus belli number 4. It's in Chinese but I'm sure you'll cope. In my experience such articles are cleared at a high level.
That decision means that all other states in the region go nuclear or go extinct.
I honestly still cannot understand why the Chinese allowed it, it is so obviously destructive to any thought of a US/China co-dominium along the Asian rim, but it also kills any Chinese aspirations for local leadership.
Just what would you have expected the Chinese to do to stop NK?
Invade is about the only real answer. Sanctions wouldn’t have stopped them with the effect of having have NK quickly pivot to the west.
Invade is about the only real answer. Sanctions wouldn’t have stopped them with the effect of having have NK quickly pivot to the west.
In The Times.
US sends stealth bombers to counter Chinese threat
US sends stealth bombers to counter Chinese threat
Three American B-2 stealth bombers have arrived in the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia on the eve of Chinese live-firing naval exercises north of Taiwan.
It is the first time the nuclear-capable strategic bombers have been sent to the remote island since 2016, in an indication of the growing concern about China’s intentions towards Taiwan.
The bombers flew across the Pacific from Whiteman air force base in Missouri to land at Diego Garcia, part of the British Indian Ocean Territory. With their advanced stealth technology, the B-2s can penetrate enemy territory without alerting air-defence radars.
The US has been increasing its presence recently in the Indo-Pacific region as tension rises in Washington over China’s stance towards Taiwan and disputed islands in the South China Sea.
On August 16, China’s PLA Navy is to start two days of live-fire drills off Zhoushan Islands, an archipelago about 340 miles north of Taiwan.
The PLA recently completed a series of air force exercises near the islands. There are concerns in the West that China’s military exercises have been designed to simulate the seizing of Pratas or Dongsha Islands, three atolls administered by Taiwan at a strategic point between the South China Sea and the Pacific.
PLA Navy vessels must pass the islands to reach the Pacific. The arrival of the three bombers on Diego Garcia will remind Beijing of the US Air Force’s reach. China is yet to bring its own stealth bomber into service.
The B-2s are from the US 509th Bomb Wing, part of its Global Strike Command. When they went to Diego Garcia in 2016 it was also at a time of heightened tension with Beijing over its militarisation of the South China Sea.
The arrival of the military equipment in Diego Garcia coincided with China sending some new weapons to the Himalayas in a 15-week stand-off with Indian troops. The PLA added a wheeled howitzer and a vehicle-mounted version of the HJ-10 anti-tank missile system to drills there recently.
It is the first time the nuclear-capable strategic bombers have been sent to the remote island since 2016, in an indication of the growing concern about China’s intentions towards Taiwan.
The bombers flew across the Pacific from Whiteman air force base in Missouri to land at Diego Garcia, part of the British Indian Ocean Territory. With their advanced stealth technology, the B-2s can penetrate enemy territory without alerting air-defence radars.
The US has been increasing its presence recently in the Indo-Pacific region as tension rises in Washington over China’s stance towards Taiwan and disputed islands in the South China Sea.
On August 16, China’s PLA Navy is to start two days of live-fire drills off Zhoushan Islands, an archipelago about 340 miles north of Taiwan.
The PLA recently completed a series of air force exercises near the islands. There are concerns in the West that China’s military exercises have been designed to simulate the seizing of Pratas or Dongsha Islands, three atolls administered by Taiwan at a strategic point between the South China Sea and the Pacific.
PLA Navy vessels must pass the islands to reach the Pacific. The arrival of the three bombers on Diego Garcia will remind Beijing of the US Air Force’s reach. China is yet to bring its own stealth bomber into service.
The B-2s are from the US 509th Bomb Wing, part of its Global Strike Command. When they went to Diego Garcia in 2016 it was also at a time of heightened tension with Beijing over its militarisation of the South China Sea.
The arrival of the military equipment in Diego Garcia coincided with China sending some new weapons to the Himalayas in a 15-week stand-off with Indian troops. The PLA added a wheeled howitzer and a vehicle-mounted version of the HJ-10 anti-tank missile system to drills there recently.