Originally Posted by
Barksdale Boy
Whatever we might think are the rights or wrongs of the matter, nothing alters the fact that Taiwan's acquisition of nuclear weapons would be a red line for China.
I'm not aware of any such statement by responsible Chinese officials, plus they must be aware that the North Korea nuclear breakout really transformed the situation.
South Korea is surely looking at nukes and they just got the US ok for longer range (500 mile) solid fuel missiles. Others in the area will follow, to monitor the spread, I'll be waiting for Singapore to launch its first satellite .
Viet Nam, which has fought a recent war with China and which has territorial as well as Mekong water management grievances with China, is probably the next in line.
But Taiwan surely is the most threatened and the Xi approach to dissent must be very much in the minds of Taiwan's leaders.
In short, I believe that everyone in SE Asia will have nuclear weapons within another decade. Living within reach of a bully forces states to look for better protection than an evanescent 7th fleet.