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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

Old 19th Sep 2022, 08:10
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it had become ridiculous 25% of mankind weren't represented at major forums, organisations and events,

If Taiwan had had the sense they'd have declared independence in the 60's and given their UN Security seat to China sometime later
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Old 19th Sep 2022, 17:57
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Golder.....is that the same UN that puts certain Nations on the Human Rights Committee....that have unquestionable gross violations of the very protocols of the Committee they head? Just asking for a friend!

https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/10/25/...rights-council

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Old 19th Sep 2022, 18:41
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Had Chiang Kai-shek and the Kuomintang not insisted on fooling themselves once they established themselves on Taiwan/Formosa, and had they chosen instead to declare themselves an independent nation, and had not the US been involved in a serious case of enabling behavior for Chiang for a couple of decades, Taiwan would already be an independent nation long since.
But that's not how it worked out. Counterfactuals: fun to play with, but in the end lacking substance.
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Old 20th Sep 2022, 07:32
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H I Sutton - Covert Shores

Chinese Navy Expansion: Yet Another Massive Dry Dock Takes Shape

The rate of Chinese warship production is impressive by any standards. A new Google Earth satellite image update of shipyards in Shanghai emphasises this. But while many eyes are on the new Type-003 Fujian Class aircraft carrier, and destroyers / cruisers, there is something else nearby. The latest image shows solid progress on a massive dry dock.

The dock, part of the Hudong-Zhonghua shipyard, is extremely large. More than large enough for an aircraft carrier. Provisional estimates, based on the visible retaining walls, put it at some 90 meters across and over 400 meters long. This is larger than another extremely large dry dock being built for Chinese carriers on Hainan.

The cofferdam is in place and the walls are starting to take shape. In particular the wall at the end, which allows us to estimate the final dimensions.

The new yard will also have a large basin for ships to be fitted out. The construction halls, which are also taking shape, match the dry dock in scale. The yard is massive and is expected to be used for warship construction. Large amphibious warships are the safest bet currently based on Hudong-Zhonghua's current activities.




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Old 20th Sep 2022, 08:32
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Looks like its designed for TWO carriers simultaneously
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Old 6th Oct 2022, 07:33
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Tainwan refines a Chinese “First-Strike” to include penetration into their territorial waters/airspace within 12nm and promise to respond accordingly.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4677797

Taiwan defines Chinese military flights into airspace as '1st strike'

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Taiwan's defense minister on Wednesday (Oct. 5) updated the country's definition of a "first strike" to include Chinese military aircraft and drones that intrude on the country's airspace……

The legislator requested confirmation that Taiwan still has a policy of not taking the "first shot" or launching the "first strike," but rather counterattacking after being struck first. Chiu replied by saying that in the past, an attack with artillery shells or missiles was considered a "first strike."

However, he said that "now the definition has obviously changed" as the PLA has started to deploy drones and other new weapons. Chiu said that the defense ministry has already adjusted the definition of "first strike" to mean any flight by Chinese military aircraft into Taiwan's airspace, which it defines as 12 nautical miles from its coast.

Referring to China's gray zone warfare tactics, Lo asked if an intrusion into Taiwan's airspace by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) is also a "first strike." Chiu agreed that a UAV incursion into Taiwan's airspace is also now considered a "first strike."…..
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Old 22nd Oct 2022, 20:29
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Does this have an impact on China's position in re Taiwan? As I see it, removing any dissenting voices is a step toward making moves that are more bellicose ... but I've guessed wrongly before.

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Old 23rd Oct 2022, 10:30
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 View Post
Does this have an impact on China's position in re Taiwan? As I see it, removing any dissenting voices is a step toward making moves that are more bellicose ... but I've guessed wrongly before.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1583767306374590464
I consider it more a sign that Xi won the internal power struggle wthiin the CP. Which in itself I consider not being a good thing.
The risk for Taiwan will very much depend on whether Xi and the CCP can solve the internal problems China is facing. Demographics, Real Estate bubble burst, Economic problems, Covid.
If not, a war has sadly proven to be one of the absolute favourite (desperate) answers of dictators to crises they can't solve. Like Putin, Xi will want to go into the History Books for Greatness and not for decline (the former being about to having royally f**ked up in this regard).
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Old 23rd Oct 2022, 14:35
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As long as it remains an internal power struggle that does not lead to a more belligerent Chinese Military....no harm done.

We are seeing power struggles in a great many Western Nations currently.....shlould we look to our own first and ask how our own might affect our foreign policy re China?

The Chinese have played the "Long Game" for Centuries....and do not forget their long time conflict with Vietnam.....and we still see Vietnam independent.

If they can win economically....why would they want to resort to military aggression?
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Old 23rd Oct 2022, 16:29
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A system which concentrates all decision making at the very top and prizes personal fealty over competence is the exact opposite of the conditions necessary to have a military capable of joint and combined warfare against a credible Western or Westernized military. Spiffy kit means nothing without the Doctrine, Logistics, Training and C4I to go with it, as Russia has just shown.

I think the actual threat posed by the PLA is significantly overrated
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Old 27th Oct 2022, 14:44
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https://www.ft.com/content/271c0c93-...9-882a1d0eb3b5

US to withdraw permanent F-15 fighter force from Okinawa

The US air force plans to replace its entire fleet of F-15 fighter jets based in Okinawa, Japan, with a “rotational” force, a shift that some American and Japanese officials worry will send a dangerous signal to China about deterrence.

The air force intends to retire two squadrons of ageing F-15 Eagles that have been permanently based in Okinawa, according to six people familiar with the situation. The decision has triggered alarm in some parts of the Japanese government and the Pentagon because the air force does not intend to replace them with a permanent presence in the near term.

The move will involve half of the roughly 100 air force fighters in Japan and is part of a modernisation programme. Critics are concerned about possible gaps that could weaken the ability to deter China.

“The message to China is the US is not serious about reversing the decline in its military forces,” said David Deptula, a retired F-15 pilot and former vice-commander of US Pacific Air Forces who blamed years of under-investment for a lack of aircraft. “This will encourage the Chinese to take more dramatic action.”…..

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Old 28th Oct 2022, 02:26
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Fascinating new Mischief Reef close ups:
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...en-them-before
How do they get those trees to grow in such a saline environment?
Or are they Potemkin Pines...
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Old 28th Oct 2022, 03:08
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How do they get those trees to grow in such a saline environment?
On natural coral atolls, freshwater "lenses" float above the more dense seawater. I imagine the same thing is happening on these artificial atolls.

The fresh water comes from the frequent storms that occur during the rainy season, from April to October - the Southwest Monsoon.
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Old 28th Oct 2022, 05:57
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Amazing progress they’ve made on all those islands, “…to protect shipping in bad weather”. Inspiration for Putin’s little adventure? Thank you Tartare.
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Old 28th Oct 2022, 06:24
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US to withdraw permanent F-15 fighter force from Okinawa

That will make the local protesters happy, they've been up in arms since 1955 at least, trying to get the base closed down for decades.
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Old 28th Oct 2022, 07:07
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Originally Posted by India Four Two View Post
On natural coral atolls, freshwater "lenses" float above the more dense seawater. I imagine the same thing is happening on these artificial atolls.

The fresh water comes from the frequent storms that occur during the rainy season, from April to October - the Southwest Monsoon.
Well there you go.
Everyday's a school day...
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Old 28th Oct 2022, 10:55
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https://www.reuters.com/business/aer...ri-2022-10-28/

Japan in late-stage talks with U.S. for Tomahawk purchase -Yomiuri

TOKYO, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Japan is in the final stages of negotiations with the United States to buy U.S.-made Tomahawk cruise missiles, the Yomiuri daily reported on Friday, citing multiple unnamed Japanese government sources.

Tomahawks can hit targets from more than 1,000 km (620 miles) away, putting parts of China and the Russian Far East within range…..

Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno said he was aware of the media report but refrained from commenting.

"The government is considering about counterattack capabilities but no specifics has been decided," he added…….

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Old 31st Oct 2022, 08:42
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Meanwhile, here in the UK….

Much scrutiny lately of 'Chinese police stations' operating on the streets of Britain…

What links the 'stations' to British politics, the Chinese Communist Party, an assault in the heart of London, & serious organised crime?

This is big.

1/54

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...285420033.html
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Old 31st Oct 2022, 09:44
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"Serious organised crime"? Are we talking "traditional Chinese social institutions" here?

I heard years ago that there was an "understanding" - the law didn't look too closely as long as innocent people weren't disturbed - came after a gang burst into a restaurant in C London armed with cleavers etc and a pitched battle was fought around the customers (no serious injuries to the paying public but ...). In the good old days of Chairman Mao the TCSI's were a steady & reliable source of information on CCP activity in the UK and Europe I believe.
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Old 31st Oct 2022, 11:35
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New Taiwanese drone…….








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