BAE RAF P3 procurement feasibility report
Thread Starter
Biggus,
and I 100% agree with those thoughts.
In terms of The Helpful Stackers comments on the SDSR, I believe the current government decided that the Nimrod MRA4 was non viable, but rather than saying it was a dead duck but we still need an MPA, came up with the line that "we don't need MPA" to help justify getting rid of the white elephant that the MRA4 had become. However, as I said, those are just my personal thoughts on the matter.
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Sun Who
'MoD can't afford the P8 and won't be in a position to do so inside a sensible timeframe.'
Quite a sweeping statement.
How much does a P8 cost?
How many do we need?
What is a 'sensible timeframe?'
Why is the RAF sending it's former Nimrod personnel to other countries to preserve their MPA skills?
Quite a sweeping statement.
How much does a P8 cost?
How many do we need?
What is a 'sensible timeframe?'
Why is the RAF sending it's former Nimrod personnel to other countries to preserve their MPA skills?
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FG
While I fully applaud the 'Seedcorn' idea you refer too, only a handful of people will be departing for foreign shores (currently only about 10 I believe). Certainly not enough to resurrect a capability in 3 years or so when they are due to return. That's not to say it will never happen, but if the government were serious about getting back into maritime patrol with a half decent platform they sure have a strange way of going about it. A more realistic time frame is 15 years in my opinion and unless those guys that are going can remain overseas for that long (never going to happen) I fail to see what the MoD/RAF will really gain?
The 3 year overseas tour will most certainly not fit in with any government timetable for regenerating a/the capability, especially when we hear on a daily basis, we are broke and will be for quite some time to come. Even if we had the money, I don't see the political will let alone a champion within the MoD to try and drive this forward.
Don't get me wrong I would love for UK plc to get back into maritime aviation as its an amazing job, performed by some truly amazing people, but I wouldn't hold your breath.
While I fully applaud the 'Seedcorn' idea you refer too, only a handful of people will be departing for foreign shores (currently only about 10 I believe). Certainly not enough to resurrect a capability in 3 years or so when they are due to return. That's not to say it will never happen, but if the government were serious about getting back into maritime patrol with a half decent platform they sure have a strange way of going about it. A more realistic time frame is 15 years in my opinion and unless those guys that are going can remain overseas for that long (never going to happen) I fail to see what the MoD/RAF will really gain?
The 3 year overseas tour will most certainly not fit in with any government timetable for regenerating a/the capability, especially when we hear on a daily basis, we are broke and will be for quite some time to come. Even if we had the money, I don't see the political will let alone a champion within the MoD to try and drive this forward.
Don't get me wrong I would love for UK plc to get back into maritime aviation as its an amazing job, performed by some truly amazing people, but I wouldn't hold your breath.
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"What do you mean Mr Lockheed when you say the US Navy wasn't bothered with all that stuff and so you trashed the Electra source material years ago because it cost money to store".
My personal opinion - once again - is that the seedcorn concept represents little more than a fig leaf. At little, or no, cost the government/MOD can tell the world (and kid themselves too probably!) that the capability (MPA) can be re-generated rapidly if it is required.
As QTR says, what will happen in 3 years time, when the seedcorn are due to return home? Are they extended in post (indefinitely?) until the UK start to acquire a new MPA. If they are to be replaced - who by? Surely by definition, the reason you created the seedcorn in the first place, to preserve perishable skills, anyone you replace them with will have been out of the MPA game at least 4 years and will have less skills than those they are replacing!
If the UK went out tomorrow and ordered P-8s (still under development) or converted P-3s, we wouldn't see anything in this country for at least 3-4 years, quite possibly longer. Given the finances of the UK/MOD, any such MPA order won't be placed for at least 3.5 years. Thus any future capability is in the order of 6+ years away.
Posting a few (10?) people who are highly skilled in their specialization (MPA), but are probably relatively unemployable anywhere else in the RAF for some time, on an overseas MPA tour doesn't exactly require much effort on the part of the RAF/MOD but gives some (minimal) credibility to the words they are uttering about preservation of skills....
The MR2 stopped flying in Apr 2010, that's already 18 months ago.
As QTR says, what will happen in 3 years time, when the seedcorn are due to return home? Are they extended in post (indefinitely?) until the UK start to acquire a new MPA. If they are to be replaced - who by? Surely by definition, the reason you created the seedcorn in the first place, to preserve perishable skills, anyone you replace them with will have been out of the MPA game at least 4 years and will have less skills than those they are replacing!
If the UK went out tomorrow and ordered P-8s (still under development) or converted P-3s, we wouldn't see anything in this country for at least 3-4 years, quite possibly longer. Given the finances of the UK/MOD, any such MPA order won't be placed for at least 3.5 years. Thus any future capability is in the order of 6+ years away.
Posting a few (10?) people who are highly skilled in their specialization (MPA), but are probably relatively unemployable anywhere else in the RAF for some time, on an overseas MPA tour doesn't exactly require much effort on the part of the RAF/MOD but gives some (minimal) credibility to the words they are uttering about preservation of skills....
The MR2 stopped flying in Apr 2010, that's already 18 months ago.
Last edited by Biggus; 21st Oct 2011 at 12:50.
Interesting - ties in with what I've heard coming from exceptionally well placed individuals that there may well yet be an MPA capability, just not Nimrod.
The issue as I have understood it when briefed wasn't that the UK couldnt afford MPA, it was that it couldnt afford MRA4. MPA may yet return to our skies...
The issue as I have understood it when briefed wasn't that the UK couldnt afford MPA, it was that it couldnt afford MRA4. MPA may yet return to our skies...
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The plan is for a few more than 10 on Seedcorn; probably not enough, by the way, but more than 10. Moreover, most of the personnel best equipped to perform the Seedcorn roles were made redundant on 1 Sep 11.
Duncs
Duncs
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Fatter Gator said:
Fair point.
For clarity, MoD can't afford ONE P8 and appropriate DLoD support and won't be in a position to do so inside a sensible timeframe. Unitary cost is likely to be itro USD$280 million P-8A Poseidon / 737 MMA, Multi-Mission Maritime Aircraft. Admittedly unitary cost and price are not the same thing but it ain't gonna be cheap and we're broke. A sensible timeframe is this side of FF2020. Anything the other side puts you into a completely different set of planning assumptions.
The RAF is sending it's former Nimrod personnel to other countries to preserve their skills iot be able to man (or woman Reg) a platform it will be able to afford. I contend that platform is likely to be an Alenia 235/239 or simliar.
Best,
Sun Who.
'MoD can't afford the P8 and won't be in a position to do so inside a sensible timeframe.'
Quite a sweeping statement.
How much does a P8 cost?
How many do we need?
What is a 'sensible timeframe?'
Why is the RAF sending it's former Nimrod personnel to other countries to preserve their MPA skills?
Quite a sweeping statement.
How much does a P8 cost?
How many do we need?
What is a 'sensible timeframe?'
Why is the RAF sending it's former Nimrod personnel to other countries to preserve their MPA skills?
For clarity, MoD can't afford ONE P8 and appropriate DLoD support and won't be in a position to do so inside a sensible timeframe. Unitary cost is likely to be itro USD$280 million P-8A Poseidon / 737 MMA, Multi-Mission Maritime Aircraft. Admittedly unitary cost and price are not the same thing but it ain't gonna be cheap and we're broke. A sensible timeframe is this side of FF2020. Anything the other side puts you into a completely different set of planning assumptions.
The RAF is sending it's former Nimrod personnel to other countries to preserve their skills iot be able to man (or woman Reg) a platform it will be able to afford. I contend that platform is likely to be an Alenia 235/239 or simliar.
Best,
Sun Who.
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Duncs,
I know the plan is for more than that, but at the moment that is all that has been agreed with host nations. Unless something else has happened this week that number is woefully inadequate. Saying that, even if another 20 to 25 go, its sadly probably not going to be enough to get back anything approaching what has just been thrown away
I know the plan is for more than that, but at the moment that is all that has been agreed with host nations. Unless something else has happened this week that number is woefully inadequate. Saying that, even if another 20 to 25 go, its sadly probably not going to be enough to get back anything approaching what has just been thrown away
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QTR Z,
Nothing particular this week - that I am aware of, anyway. However, CA, NZ and AUS still add up to more than 10. USN 'will' add more.
Oh, and with the risk of sounding like an AEO - I concur!
Duncs
Nothing particular this week - that I am aware of, anyway. However, CA, NZ and AUS still add up to more than 10. USN 'will' add more.
Oh, and with the risk of sounding like an AEO - I concur!
Duncs
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I dont think its a case of P-8 being 'unaffordable' -I think the financial commitments of the various campaigns have been a big draw on finances.
However if we think 'small' in terms of a buy of six aircraft which could potentially be two 'North' -two 'South' acting as detached flights with two in maintainance / training and it becomes achievable.
However if we think 'small' in terms of a buy of six aircraft which could potentially be two 'North' -two 'South' acting as detached flights with two in maintainance / training and it becomes achievable.
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Duncs,
I didn't count the CA contingent as they had already gone before Seedcorn really got off the ground, although I suppose they are all part of the grand master plan. Even taking those guys into account we are still only in the mid teens until 'uncle Sam' comes knocking.
Still not enough in my opinion, but I suppose it really all depends on what the lords and masters have in mind - if indeed they actually have anything in mind!
I didn't count the CA contingent as they had already gone before Seedcorn really got off the ground, although I suppose they are all part of the grand master plan. Even taking those guys into account we are still only in the mid teens until 'uncle Sam' comes knocking.
Still not enough in my opinion, but I suppose it really all depends on what the lords and masters have in mind - if indeed they actually have anything in mind!
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From what I've heard the P3's stored in the desert are not a really good option as the yanks had been calculating their fatigue life mathmatically incorrectly. I guess if the intent of the MoD was to go with the P3 option then the re-wing option would have to be on the cards straight up.
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Aus_AF
I would not be surprised by the fatigue life measurement and if memory serves me well I think we've been there, done that and got the T-shirt.
I can't remember it working out too well though
I would not be surprised by the fatigue life measurement and if memory serves me well I think we've been there, done that and got the T-shirt.
I can't remember it working out too well though
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A400M?
Simplistically put, but how about taking the electronic bits left over from the Nimrods (if they kept them that is) and make up palletised roll in/roll out mission modules that will fit in the back of a A400M and mount the sensors etc on wing hard points (if there any of course).
Or use the same airframe as the new supa-dooper tanker so you cut cost on the maintenance and flight deck training side of things?
Could always just buy a few 'Bears' (they gotta be well cheap these days) and then shoehorn the Nimrod bits in....
Simplistically put, but how about taking the electronic bits left over from the Nimrods (if they kept them that is) and make up palletised roll in/roll out mission modules that will fit in the back of a A400M and mount the sensors etc on wing hard points (if there any of course).
Or use the same airframe as the new supa-dooper tanker so you cut cost on the maintenance and flight deck training side of things?
Could always just buy a few 'Bears' (they gotta be well cheap these days) and then shoehorn the Nimrod bits in....
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I think we need to clarify -the eight Indian P-8's are in production with the first one having flown . The US Navy machines are under evaluation -this isnt a concept aircraft -its a maritime patrol aircraft in production.
Forget any ideas of getting worn out P-3's -the push will be for RAF P-8 aircraft -BAe Systems already has input in the computing suite and I am sure its only a matter of time once a European launch customer has signed.
Forget any ideas of getting worn out P-3's -the push will be for RAF P-8 aircraft -BAe Systems already has input in the computing suite and I am sure its only a matter of time once a European launch customer has signed.
An open source article states that the Indian P-8s were ordered in Jan 2009, and "....First deliveries aren’t expected until 2013 at the earliest, and the jets are expected to enter service “before 2015.”
All of which seems to confirm some of my comments in my post of 1339 21st Oct... That's post 25 of this thread.
All of which seems to confirm some of my comments in my post of 1339 21st Oct... That's post 25 of this thread.