SDSR versus Real World Events
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SDSR versus Real World Events
I do not think that I am the only one that has noticed that in the majority of threads all of the military posters (and some civilian and ex military) comment in the lack of strategic thinking or execution in the SDSR.
There has also been certain amount of complication created by some leading politicians, HMG departments and media where the true nature of the SDSR cuts and potential future risks to the UK and British Nationals is being lost by careful spin to lose the true impact in other headlines, including cuts to NHS, Welfare and MoD procurement mismanagement.
Taking it from this esoteric viewpoint to a personal topical one, I was out at my local near a secret Hampshire airbase yesterday evening, with people that I regularly socialise with and even though just a routine green wokka mate they were genuinely shocked to see me. The locals consisted of city types, ex servicemen, farmers and a few local business owners (fair cross section of society, certainly for my neck of the woods).
This element of Middle England were genuinely expecting HMG and the MoD to have visible and credible actions to rescue those stuck in Libya. All of them had images of a Falklands style task force leaving harbour with decks full of helicopters ready to position itself should the civilian charter option not work. They were all expecting Hercs to pre-position to Malta with defence parties to be ready at a drop of a hat to extract British Nationals (and in a force for good, anyone else that wanted to leave the country).
I am loyal to the end, and did not rise to this obvious misalignment of public expectations and I am sure that those that need to are considering many options. But, I cannot escape from the essential fact that however broke we are and whatever the National Security Council believe is going to threaten UK in the future, that the current SDSR is placing this country at risk and that the British people have absolutely no idea on what these cuts mean to them.
Even the much lauded Afghan pull out will not deliver the spectrum, reaction and reach of capabilities that the UK once had. It appears that RWS is truly dead and the NAO Battlefield Helicopter lift requirement/shortfall is to be ignored, a UK amphibious capability is either being cut completely or reduced to a phoney level and of course the axing of Harriers, Nimrod/MPA and carriers with no method of rapidly filling the capability gap.
No one (not even the best brains in RUSI or the FCO) would have envisaged this wave of Middle Eastern 'revolution' and yet everyone appears to be lulling themselves into a belief of 'capability holidays', 'seedcorning capabilities' and 'accepting capability gaps'.
I acknowledge that we are broke, and of course the MoD Procurement process needs to get sorted (and unusually there has been much sense on the Dr Fox Spending thread on procurement and project management), but as someone that was having a drink with a snap shot of British society then the HMG have got it's work cut out in aligning the expectations of the British public as they are willing to swallow the GOvt's and media's spin on everyone sharing the pain with cuts, but they are certainly unaware of the level of cuts and what it means to their defence and the defence of those in shipping lanes or countries overseas.
Hopefully Libya will be sorted by civilian charters and the NEO thread turns out to be a load of hot air, but what will be next (natural disaster, more NEO, energy/food security or war fighting - nothing is inconceivable in today's uncertain environment) and what will the British public expect it's Govt and Military to do on it's behalf?
I believe that there is a widening chasm of what the British public expect and want from it's military and what current Government are prepared to fund, and sadly HMG are not being honest with the British public in re-aligning those expectations by informing them of the true consequences and reduction in capabilities that are as a result of the current (and projected) cuts.
Just a thought after a night in the local pub
There has also been certain amount of complication created by some leading politicians, HMG departments and media where the true nature of the SDSR cuts and potential future risks to the UK and British Nationals is being lost by careful spin to lose the true impact in other headlines, including cuts to NHS, Welfare and MoD procurement mismanagement.
Taking it from this esoteric viewpoint to a personal topical one, I was out at my local near a secret Hampshire airbase yesterday evening, with people that I regularly socialise with and even though just a routine green wokka mate they were genuinely shocked to see me. The locals consisted of city types, ex servicemen, farmers and a few local business owners (fair cross section of society, certainly for my neck of the woods).
This element of Middle England were genuinely expecting HMG and the MoD to have visible and credible actions to rescue those stuck in Libya. All of them had images of a Falklands style task force leaving harbour with decks full of helicopters ready to position itself should the civilian charter option not work. They were all expecting Hercs to pre-position to Malta with defence parties to be ready at a drop of a hat to extract British Nationals (and in a force for good, anyone else that wanted to leave the country).
I am loyal to the end, and did not rise to this obvious misalignment of public expectations and I am sure that those that need to are considering many options. But, I cannot escape from the essential fact that however broke we are and whatever the National Security Council believe is going to threaten UK in the future, that the current SDSR is placing this country at risk and that the British people have absolutely no idea on what these cuts mean to them.
Even the much lauded Afghan pull out will not deliver the spectrum, reaction and reach of capabilities that the UK once had. It appears that RWS is truly dead and the NAO Battlefield Helicopter lift requirement/shortfall is to be ignored, a UK amphibious capability is either being cut completely or reduced to a phoney level and of course the axing of Harriers, Nimrod/MPA and carriers with no method of rapidly filling the capability gap.
No one (not even the best brains in RUSI or the FCO) would have envisaged this wave of Middle Eastern 'revolution' and yet everyone appears to be lulling themselves into a belief of 'capability holidays', 'seedcorning capabilities' and 'accepting capability gaps'.
I acknowledge that we are broke, and of course the MoD Procurement process needs to get sorted (and unusually there has been much sense on the Dr Fox Spending thread on procurement and project management), but as someone that was having a drink with a snap shot of British society then the HMG have got it's work cut out in aligning the expectations of the British public as they are willing to swallow the GOvt's and media's spin on everyone sharing the pain with cuts, but they are certainly unaware of the level of cuts and what it means to their defence and the defence of those in shipping lanes or countries overseas.
Hopefully Libya will be sorted by civilian charters and the NEO thread turns out to be a load of hot air, but what will be next (natural disaster, more NEO, energy/food security or war fighting - nothing is inconceivable in today's uncertain environment) and what will the British public expect it's Govt and Military to do on it's behalf?
I believe that there is a widening chasm of what the British public expect and want from it's military and what current Government are prepared to fund, and sadly HMG are not being honest with the British public in re-aligning those expectations by informing them of the true consequences and reduction in capabilities that are as a result of the current (and projected) cuts.
Just a thought after a night in the local pub
Last edited by MaroonMan4; 24th Feb 2011 at 08:49.
Well, if you could have persuaded everyone in the pub (plus every other man, woman and child in the UK) to donate an additional £50 per year in taxes, then the resulting £3Bn per annum would sort out the problem!...for now at least..
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Red Line,
That is just it-they probably would if someone told them the consequences of the current cuts being made. They truly believed that we as a military could get together a Falklands style task force brimming with helicopters and C130s ready to preposition at short notice - and as I said they were shocked that we hadn't already dispatched a force just in case the civ charter option fell through.
The British public does not understand capability gaps, holidays or seed corning - and no one is telling them of the true implications of not having Harrier or Nimrod or enough helicopters to lift it's troops/supplies/civilians, rather instead to lose the true impact of the cuts in the back ground noise of other cuts and headline grabbing news.
I believe that if the British public knew that it's extra £50 was definitely going to it's military it would gladly cough up for their defence, both at home and overseas.
That is just it-they probably would if someone told them the consequences of the current cuts being made. They truly believed that we as a military could get together a Falklands style task force brimming with helicopters and C130s ready to preposition at short notice - and as I said they were shocked that we hadn't already dispatched a force just in case the civ charter option fell through.
The British public does not understand capability gaps, holidays or seed corning - and no one is telling them of the true implications of not having Harrier or Nimrod or enough helicopters to lift it's troops/supplies/civilians, rather instead to lose the true impact of the cuts in the back ground noise of other cuts and headline grabbing news.
I believe that if the British public knew that it's extra £50 was definitely going to it's military it would gladly cough up for their defence, both at home and overseas.
From my own recollections of SDSR the FCO were quite damming of the process & ridiculous timescales, successfully distancing themselves from the 'Strategic Review' at quite an early stage. Whilst this may have done little to help the military the individuals from the FCO used similar emotive language as the military people when voicing their justifiable concerns.
The FCO is suffering its own funding crisis at a time of world instability. Perhaps the FCO has only ever been a fair-weather friend to the MoD but with both departments broke their is little either can do to help out. I almost feel sorry for the FCO reps that are being forced in front of the cameras to explain themselves - given their pivotal role in all this mess you never actually see a Treasury spokesman when the going gets tough...
The FCO is suffering its own funding crisis at a time of world instability. Perhaps the FCO has only ever been a fair-weather friend to the MoD but with both departments broke their is little either can do to help out. I almost feel sorry for the FCO reps that are being forced in front of the cameras to explain themselves - given their pivotal role in all this mess you never actually see a Treasury spokesman when the going gets tough...
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If the British public at large are sufficiently stupid to believe that they could have a Falklands-style operation, they deserve any government they get. It has been made crystal clear by the news media that our forces a stretched to the limit - even for supporting Afghanistan, and that our carrier capability has been eliminated.
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JTO,
Exactly and totally agree-and HMG/HMT should be honest with the British public on what the consequences of these cuts are-if 'we are all in it together' then at least inform the British people of exactly what they are in for with these cuts.
Honestly and transparently align expectations, rather than pretend that Frontline services are not being cut and that the defence/interests of the British people are not being compromised.
Exactly and totally agree-and HMG/HMT should be honest with the British public on what the consequences of these cuts are-if 'we are all in it together' then at least inform the British people of exactly what they are in for with these cuts.
Honestly and transparently align expectations, rather than pretend that Frontline services are not being cut and that the defence/interests of the British people are not being compromised.
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BBC News - Libya unrest: Rescued Britons flying home
Whilst totally agreeing with your points, yet another rabbit is pulled out of the hat by our overstretched forces.
An RAF Hercules C130 aircraft has arrived in Tripoli to collect British nationals.
A second military plane is on standby in Malta if needed.
A second military plane is on standby in Malta if needed.
As the majority of these workers in Libya are not paying UK tax, and are working there of their own free will (and for the money!) anyone know if they get charged for these rescue flights? After all, whilst maybe not quite the same, if Joe Bloggs gets injured on holiday without the required travel insurance he has to fund his own casevac back....
Did anyone miss this paragraph in the same article?
BBC security correspondent Frank Gardner said an SAS contingent has been put on standby for emergency deployment to parts of Libya, backed up by paratroopers of the Special Forces Support Group.
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British Public Opinion?
IMHO British public opinion, re our foreign policy, is changing by the day. If demographic trends continue, it is estimated that Britain will be populated by a immigrant (sourced) majority by 2050. This social group is becoming more vocal and, even now, are questioning UK plc's military role in the world. It will not be long before our permanent seat on the UN's Security Council is questioned.
An RAF Hercules C130 aircraft has arrived in Tripoli to collect British nationals.
A second military plane is on standby in Malta if needed
A second military plane is on standby in Malta if needed
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As the majority of these workers in Libya are not paying UK tax, and are working there of their own free will (and for the money!) anyone know if they get charged for these rescue flights? After all, whilst maybe not quite the same, if Joe Bloggs gets injured on holiday without the required travel insurance he has to fund his own casevac back....
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Since time immemorial, the default option when any s
t has it any fan is to call in the military.
In my time we've had countless floods dealt with by the fine folks from the SAR fleet, at least one fire strike, several NEOs, snow shovelling, potential prison officer strikes, token gestures to overseas relief efforts (Pak floods, Haiti earthquake)............................................ the list goes on; almost all of this is outside our core business, yet the public perception is that the military are the most capable both in management and equipment in a crisis.
Methinks the time has come to put up a sign on the front door of MOD main building that reads:
"HM Armed Forces are currently engaged in operations around the world and in this country. If you would like to engage our services in any new operation/crisis please first direct your query to HMT c/o No 11 Downing St, who will issue you with a note for funds to be made available. If they are unwilling to do so, or you cannot remunerate us for our services, we have no choice but to decline your request, as we do not have the resources. Many thanks."
Clearly a simple "B****r off" would be insufficient in terms of justification but would carry the same message.
TTH
May
t has it any fan is to call in the military.In my time we've had countless floods dealt with by the fine folks from the SAR fleet, at least one fire strike, several NEOs, snow shovelling, potential prison officer strikes, token gestures to overseas relief efforts (Pak floods, Haiti earthquake)............................................ the list goes on; almost all of this is outside our core business, yet the public perception is that the military are the most capable both in management and equipment in a crisis.
Methinks the time has come to put up a sign on the front door of MOD main building that reads:
"HM Armed Forces are currently engaged in operations around the world and in this country. If you would like to engage our services in any new operation/crisis please first direct your query to HMT c/o No 11 Downing St, who will issue you with a note for funds to be made available. If they are unwilling to do so, or you cannot remunerate us for our services, we have no choice but to decline your request, as we do not have the resources. Many thanks."
Clearly a simple "B****r off" would be insufficient in terms of justification but would carry the same message.
TTH
May
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"No one (not even the best brains in RUSI or the FCO) would have envisaged this wave of Middle Eastern 'revolution"
None of the autocrats running the countries affected by "popular disent" were getting any younger. What worse case scenarios had been considered by the think tanks
None of the autocrats running the countries affected by "popular disent" were getting any younger. What worse case scenarios had been considered by the think tanks
Sand4gold.
Rubbish rubbish rubbish rubbish!
Stop spouting zenophobic irrational nonsense and check your facts.
The UK will NOT have an immigrant sourced majority by 2050 under any circumstances. Ignoring the rather obvious fact that we are ALL immigrants, UK population grew by 0.6% last year of which the majority, 787,000 were births. Net immigration fell for the second year running. 7.9% of the population is non white.
Rubbish rubbish rubbish rubbish!
Stop spouting zenophobic irrational nonsense and check your facts.
The UK will NOT have an immigrant sourced majority by 2050 under any circumstances. Ignoring the rather obvious fact that we are ALL immigrants, UK population grew by 0.6% last year of which the majority, 787,000 were births. Net immigration fell for the second year running. 7.9% of the population is non white.
Dan
You didn't answer the question. I fully understand why people make a choice to work overseas. But should they all have the right to free UK taxpayers support, as a non-contributor, when it all goes wrong (particulalrly if working outside of the EU)? Same could be said about access to the NHS, education system etc etc - we're quick to knock the immigrants who take advantage of the Brisitsh taxpayers generosity. But that would be thread drift!
Edited to add - blimey Pr00ne is back.
You didn't answer the question. I fully understand why people make a choice to work overseas. But should they all have the right to free UK taxpayers support, as a non-contributor, when it all goes wrong (particulalrly if working outside of the EU)? Same could be said about access to the NHS, education system etc etc - we're quick to knock the immigrants who take advantage of the Brisitsh taxpayers generosity. But that would be thread drift!
Edited to add - blimey Pr00ne is back.
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Let's not get carried away with what SDSR has and hasn't left us wrt this particular crisis.
The facts are simple: If someone high enough had made a decision several days ago, our (RAF) aircraft would have been in and out by now, from the UK.
The apparent delay comes down to nothing more than that.
The facts are simple: If someone high enough had made a decision several days ago, our (RAF) aircraft would have been in and out by now, from the UK.
The apparent delay comes down to nothing more than that.
