F-35 Cancelled, then what ?
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did you miss this, I did suggest a timeline, I don't see 4th gen survivable post 2030 because of what the air forces are saying..I'm pretty sure there was something said about retiring typhoons about 2030 and looking at f-35mk2
http://www.pprune.org/7742364-post1332.html
the eurocanards are fine for now, but as I said, "what is EU designed to replace the eurocanards?" come 2030
the eurocanards are fine for now, but as I said, "what is EU designed to replace the eurocanards?" come 2030
Last edited by JSFfan; 14th Mar 2013 at 22:12.
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who knows what we need post 2030???
It's called the future,
Post 2030 there is nothing today that will do, not the Eurocanards, not the Russian or Chinese fighter-jets and not the F22 or F35.
Our Eurocanards by then will need to be upgraded (like everything else too) to be able to keep the upper-hand.
You somehow have fallen into one of the cheapest marketing traps ever conceived by any company in the arms industry, the generations trap, LM most successful selling tool.
The F22, EF, Rafale ,SH , Gripen NG and now also the F35 are all of the same generation, modern highly efficient and extremely reliable engines, modern production methods, modern avionics, modern materials, modern link capabilities, all the latest weapons can be integrated, that is what makes them the most current generation fighters, not 1 specific capability like eg stealth.
Originally LM described 5th generation as super-cruise, stealth(VLO), easy to maintain, sensor fusion, and highly manoeuvrable with lots of SA.
Lacking any of these points would mean not 5 th generation .
Please tell me what aircraft is 5th gen with these original parameters? The F22 comes closest (but still lacks HMCS, HOBS and is by no means easy to maintain), second comes the EF which in its T3 outfit will tick all boxes except VLO, the F35 doesn't even come close on speed and agility but still LM maintains that nothing but their products are 5th gen, strange, no?
One thing is certain if 2030 comes and we need to use our airforces let's hope the enemy has no more than a couple of dozens of fighters because we sure as hell will not have anywhere near enough of them to fight them off if we keep on getting involved in projects like the F35.
Post 2030 there is nothing today that will do, not the Eurocanards, not the Russian or Chinese fighter-jets and not the F22 or F35.
Our Eurocanards by then will need to be upgraded (like everything else too) to be able to keep the upper-hand.
You somehow have fallen into one of the cheapest marketing traps ever conceived by any company in the arms industry, the generations trap, LM most successful selling tool.
The F22, EF, Rafale ,SH , Gripen NG and now also the F35 are all of the same generation, modern highly efficient and extremely reliable engines, modern production methods, modern avionics, modern materials, modern link capabilities, all the latest weapons can be integrated, that is what makes them the most current generation fighters, not 1 specific capability like eg stealth.
Originally LM described 5th generation as super-cruise, stealth(VLO), easy to maintain, sensor fusion, and highly manoeuvrable with lots of SA.
Lacking any of these points would mean not 5 th generation .
Please tell me what aircraft is 5th gen with these original parameters? The F22 comes closest (but still lacks HMCS, HOBS and is by no means easy to maintain), second comes the EF which in its T3 outfit will tick all boxes except VLO, the F35 doesn't even come close on speed and agility but still LM maintains that nothing but their products are 5th gen, strange, no?
One thing is certain if 2030 comes and we need to use our airforces let's hope the enemy has no more than a couple of dozens of fighters because we sure as hell will not have anywhere near enough of them to fight them off if we keep on getting involved in projects like the F35.
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well if phoon is second to the f-22 ...it's a wonder they don't tell someone [aussie, singaphore, japan, half of europe etc where they lost comps] and market it worldwide, I'm sure it would win every comp if they told them..or did they do their own eval's
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well if phoon is second to the f-22 ...it's a wonder they don't tell someone [aussie, singaphore, japan, half of europe etc where they lost comps] and market it worldwide, I'm sure it would win every comp if they told them..or did they do their own eval's
Besides that there is more than just merit to choose for a certain fighter, if so EF would have won in Singapore, Rafale in Switzerland, etc... .
Political alliances, price, Transfer of technology, economic packages, size of air force, quality of air force and many more parameters are what determines who buys what.
The Americans score really big on many of these points, certainly on many of the nations you mentioned ,Norway, Netherlands, Japan, Israel, SKorea, Canada, and to a lesser extent UK and Australia, come to mind.
Last edited by kbrockman; 14th Mar 2013 at 23:17.
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Against my better judgement...
JSFfan, when US came with the idea of stealthy F15 (ATF), European nations acknowledged that, pointed to Lampyridae and said "No, thank you." and went for the Eurofighter, but with the same level of threat in scope.
So you see, European constructors consciously turned down the "benefits" of the stealth and with a good reason as it turned out, considering histories of US' stealth programs, in spite of what you think, or believe.
Now, the JSF is having a tough time, in great part due the stealth and we'll see how the program plays out, but it doesn't look overly good so far (budget and time cap, crisis management, etc.).
JSFfan, when US came with the idea of stealthy F15 (ATF), European nations acknowledged that, pointed to Lampyridae and said "No, thank you." and went for the Eurofighter, but with the same level of threat in scope.
So you see, European constructors consciously turned down the "benefits" of the stealth and with a good reason as it turned out, considering histories of US' stealth programs, in spite of what you think, or believe.
Now, the JSF is having a tough time, in great part due the stealth and we'll see how the program plays out, but it doesn't look overly good so far (budget and time cap, crisis management, etc.).
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you said something nearly as silly "F22, EF, Rafale ,SH , Gripen NG and now also the F35 are all of the same generation"
They are all conceived and developed in roughly the same time frame give or take 20 years (between first ATF, EF and now the F35 and GripenNG), since the lifespan is about 40-50 years (F16/Tornado/M2000/F15/F18/...) , it is a fair assessment that the ones I mentioned are roughly the same generation, disregarding what LM defines as a generation, it's basically nonsense.
IMO,
Current generation: RAFALE/EF/GRIPENNG/SH/F22/F35/F15SE
last generation: F14/F15/F16/F18/TORNADO/M2000/VIGGEN
Before: F4/F104/F5/F105/MIII/BAC-LIGHTNING/
Before: Ouragan/F86/F84/HAWKER HUNTER/
Before: All the first jet fighters.
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JSF, I think you are [continuously] missing the big picture.
The primary point of any armed force is to DETER.
Do you honestly believe the F-35 would play a significant part in deferring a numerically and technologically superior foe?..and I'm including weapons in this mix here...bearing in mind you can have 90% "superiority" but it's that last 10% that gets you killed....?
The primary point of any armed force is to DETER.
Do you honestly believe the F-35 would play a significant part in deferring a numerically and technologically superior foe?..and I'm including weapons in this mix here...bearing in mind you can have 90% "superiority" but it's that last 10% that gets you killed....?
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In some ways I feel that the 'challenge' of stealth, and I suppose the F35 project itself, is doing to the western defence budgets a similar thing that the 'challenge' of Ronald Reagan's "Star Wars" technological race did to / for the Soviet economy.
Having too few super-dooper things is not always (or ever) the counter to having more, slightly less-super-dooper things.
You need to have enough pf them to be able to make use of them; and this is the Achilles' Heel of the project and as said earlier, is complicated further with the mantra of the design having commonalities - but chasing the mediocre characteristics imposed by the -B model design.
Having too few super-dooper things is not always (or ever) the counter to having more, slightly less-super-dooper things.
You need to have enough pf them to be able to make use of them; and this is the Achilles' Heel of the project and as said earlier, is complicated further with the mantra of the design having commonalities - but chasing the mediocre characteristics imposed by the -B model design.
and the needless NH90 (what does it deliver that the Blackhawk cannot?)
but we also have perfectly good systems ,Gripen, many ships and subs, A330MRTT, RAFALE, and even the Typhoon which is a fantastic fighter notwithstanding all of its development problems, and many many more ...
kbrockman, I must applaud your very on point comments.
I've become convinced since about 2002 (when I had some very small play in some JSF stuff, part of which was "where's the first base and how do we deal with the noise complaints already coming in from California before the first sortie is flown ...) that F-22 and JSF are the last manned fighter the US aircraft manufacturers will build.
Why the last:
Because we can't afford the next generation, we can't afford (or won't afford) the cost of training the pilots, and the next group of "silver bullet" machines will be unmanned. Sadly, they'll all be disabled on day one of the war by a computer virus, leaving us with BFA to fight with ...
Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 15th Mar 2013 at 11:21.
I guess anyone except you understood the irony kbrockman wanted to point out.
LM used criteria to claim only their own aircraft would be of the latest generation, yet their own product (F-35) fails in more criteria of their own checklist than most of their contemporaries.
Claiming that only F-35 will be survivable post 2030 is far fetched.
To say the least.
LO, was that how it was marketed? 
Ouch, looks like the target and the projectile are still trying to get in touch via cell phone on that one.
Ouch, looks like the target and the projectile are still trying to get in touch via cell phone on that one.
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LO
That was exactly what Lockheed was touting around Canberra in 2000. Marketing falsehood in the extreme; as most, at the time, realised.
That was exactly what Lockheed was touting around Canberra in 2000. Marketing falsehood in the extreme; as most, at the time, realised.
Last edited by cuefaye; 15th Mar 2013 at 13:12.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Have they got the arrestor hook issue sorted yet?
In truth, that is, rather than in the imagination of some Lockheed liar or JASFanboy.
In truth, that is, rather than in the imagination of some Lockheed liar or JASFanboy.
The Panting Media Paradox
The F-18 and its procurement process was savaged by an author in the book
The Pentagon Paradox.
Oddly enough, the F-18 seems to have worked out operationally. I seem to recall some years ago a problem with the fin/tail and cracks, that was sorted, even though it was initially a black eye to the program. (Was it in CF-18's first, or in test? I forget).
The F-35 is being savaged during its development and LRIP process. I have an idea that it will work out ... but cost growth, as a factor, strikes me as a significantly differnt scale than the F-18. I have not yet done the sums, so it may not be as different now as then.
What I am pretty sure is true is that between the F-18 and the F-35, some of the rules of acquisition in our country have changed (Federal Acquisition Regulations) and "cost as a variable" has gotten to have a larger impact on decision matrices.
The Pentagon Paradox.
Oddly enough, the F-18 seems to have worked out operationally. I seem to recall some years ago a problem with the fin/tail and cracks, that was sorted, even though it was initially a black eye to the program. (Was it in CF-18's first, or in test? I forget).
The F-35 is being savaged during its development and LRIP process. I have an idea that it will work out ... but cost growth, as a factor, strikes me as a significantly differnt scale than the F-18. I have not yet done the sums, so it may not be as different now as then.
What I am pretty sure is true is that between the F-18 and the F-35, some of the rules of acquisition in our country have changed (Federal Acquisition Regulations) and "cost as a variable" has gotten to have a larger impact on decision matrices.
I recall the book was critical of the bass-ackwards process by which attempted commonality ended up as a separate program, and of the fact that the rosy promises (the Hornet was presented as a combination of a mini-F-15 and a Tornado, back in the day) were not fulfilled. It turned out all right in the C/D version.
The problem is one of magnitude. If it was one loused-up program it would be one thing, but this is now not only the entire future of TacAir but the future of combat air power, because I really don't see how anything like the current procurement plan can be executed without deferring LRS-B, UCAV or whatever else comes next into the 2030s.
"Cost as an independent variable" was one of the doctrinal fictions that got us into this mess. It was applied chiefly in the 1996-2000 phase of defining the joint operational requirement, but the unfortunate fact was that a very large percentage of the cost was baked-in by the design of the prototypes, and the pursuit of "cost reduction" resulted in taking on high-risk approaches to manufacturing technology and subsystems (see Boeing 787), many of which have not panned out.
The problem is one of magnitude. If it was one loused-up program it would be one thing, but this is now not only the entire future of TacAir but the future of combat air power, because I really don't see how anything like the current procurement plan can be executed without deferring LRS-B, UCAV or whatever else comes next into the 2030s.
"Cost as an independent variable" was one of the doctrinal fictions that got us into this mess. It was applied chiefly in the 1996-2000 phase of defining the joint operational requirement, but the unfortunate fact was that a very large percentage of the cost was baked-in by the design of the prototypes, and the pursuit of "cost reduction" resulted in taking on high-risk approaches to manufacturing technology and subsystems (see Boeing 787), many of which have not panned out.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Oddly enough, the F-18 seems to have worked out operationally.
One of the worrying factors in the F-35 is the lack of growth margin both in internal space and F135 potential thrust growth without causing a thermal problem. The lack of cooling vents due to stealth requirements means the fuel is used as a heat sink and is nearing the upper limit requiring fuel to be kept for cooling at the end of the mission.
PW claim 10-20% more thrust can be achieved by incorporating ceramic blades and other ADVENT engine upgrades - but where does the heat go?
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.....PW claim 10-20% more thrust can be achieved by incorporating ceramic blades and other ADVENT engine upgrades - but where does the heat go?
LF