F-35 Cancelled, then what ?
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from LO's link
ACTING CHAIR: Yes, and you can take that on notice. In terms of simulations and so on there was a report in Aviation Week and Space Technology called 'Raptor's edge', written by David Fulghum. It said the operational arguments focus on combat effectiveness against top foreign fighter aircraft such as the Russian Su27 and MiG29. Lockheed Martin and USAF analysts put the loss-exchange ratio at 30:1 for the F22, 3:1 for the F35 and 1:1 or less for the F15, FA18 and F16. Is that Lockheed Martin's view? It says here that that was both analysis by Lockheed Martin analysts and the USAF.
Mr Burbage : Time has moved on since 2008 and we know a lot more about this airplane now than we knew then.
Mr Burbage : We actually have a fifth-gen airplane flying today. The F22 has been in many exercises. We have one of the pilots here who flew it and they can tell you that in any real-world event it is much better than the simulations forecast. We have F35 flying today; it has not been put into that scenario yet, but we have very high quality information on the capability of the sensors and the capability of the airplane, and we have represented the airplane fairly and appropriately in these large-scale campaign models that we are using. But it is not just us—it is our air force; it is your air force; it is all the other participating nations that do this; it is our navy and our marine corps that do these exercises. It is not Lockheed in a closet genning up some sort of result.
ACTING CHAIR: Yes, and you can take that on notice. In terms of simulations and so on there was a report in Aviation Week and Space Technology called 'Raptor's edge', written by David Fulghum. It said the operational arguments focus on combat effectiveness against top foreign fighter aircraft such as the Russian Su27 and MiG29. Lockheed Martin and USAF analysts put the loss-exchange ratio at 30:1 for the F22, 3:1 for the F35 and 1:1 or less for the F15, FA18 and F16. Is that Lockheed Martin's view? It says here that that was both analysis by Lockheed Martin analysts and the USAF.
Mr Burbage : Time has moved on since 2008 and we know a lot more about this airplane now than we knew then.
Mr Burbage : We actually have a fifth-gen airplane flying today. The F22 has been in many exercises. We have one of the pilots here who flew it and they can tell you that in any real-world event it is much better than the simulations forecast. We have F35 flying today; it has not been put into that scenario yet, but we have very high quality information on the capability of the sensors and the capability of the airplane, and we have represented the airplane fairly and appropriately in these large-scale campaign models that we are using. But it is not just us—it is our air force; it is your air force; it is all the other participating nations that do this; it is our navy and our marine corps that do these exercises. It is not Lockheed in a closet genning up some sort of result.
Last edited by a1bill; 3rd Dec 2015 at 03:43.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
AW&ST:
Opinion: U.K. Defense Planners Deliver More ‘Hurry Up and Wait’ Decisions
Christmas came early for the British armed forces. The gentlemen (and ladies) of David Cameron’s Tory government responsible for the Strategic Defense & Security Review (SDSR) are resting merry. They hold an unexpected absolute majority in Parliament. The far-Left-led opposition, barring catastrophe, will be outside the door calling for figgy pudding for many years. Cameron’s team can afford to plan for the long term.
Scrooge’s change to his Christmas plans was influenced by ghosts, as was the U.K.’s decision to rebuild its fixed-wing antisubmarine warfare (ASW) force with nine Boeing P-8A Poseidons. The ghosts were the Nimrod AEW3 and MRA4 (based on a Ghost-powered airplane named Comet), two disastrous attempts by U.K. industry to build large reconnaissance and surveillance aircraft. They appear, rattling their chains, whenever a British defense planner contemplates doing that again.
British ASW technology is world-class. European companies have delivered complex maritime and other sensor systems (such as Airbus’s P-3 upgrade for Brazil). But the known-quantity P-8A has been on the surviving ASW community’s letter to Santa every year since the 2010 SDSR chopped the MRA4. Officials say that they thoroughly analyzed alternatives to the P-8A, but at least one executive explains how his company was involved in the process: “By realizing early on that the RAF wasn’t interested in any answer other than the P-8.”
The P-8A seems to work, but the U.S. Navy has loaded it with lots of toys and goodies—provision for a large ground-surveillance radar and a beefed-up wing to carry heavy weapons—making it heavy and expensive, with a smaller range and persistence advantage over older or smaller platforms than you might expect.
Speaking of yonder Istar (intelligence, surveillance, targeting and reconnaissance, to use the British term), the SDSR makes an offhand reference to keeping the E-3D Sentry airborne early-warning aircraft in service to 2035. That’s not a new plan, but it gets pricier by the year: The RAF aircraft still have their original, 1970s-technology control and display suites and have fallen behind the rest of the worldwide fleet. Given the E-3’s high cost per flight hour, a smaller replacement could make economic sense.
The British made a big deal about speeding up Lockheed Martin F-35B Joint Strike Fighter deliveries and committing to their long-planned 138-aircraft buy, but Fort Worth might be singing “Blue Christmas” when the implications of the SDSR hit home. The acceleration of the first 48 jets is relative to a very slow schedule that was never published; the remaining 90 aircraft, once set for delivery in the 2020s, are now, a senior U.K. official says in Washington, “a long way away” (beyond field and fountain, moor and mountain, in all likelihood). “We have not made any decision about future tranches and we don’t need to make them yet.”
As for the Eurofighter Typhoon: In the Mummer’s plays that my ancestors would perform for pennies and beer, and the hell with figgy pudding, the M.C.—Father Christmas—was a morally ambiguous character. (The joint global brand with St. Nicholas came later.) Once St. George had killed the dragon or the Turkish Knight, Father Christmas would summon the Doctor, who would produce a vial and say to the victim:
The Royal Navy, meanwhile, can at least see more than three ships come sailing in, although there will be eight Type 26 ASW frigates rather than the previously planned 13. The money for the other five will pay for a larger number of smaller, less costly, export-friendly frigates.
You may think that you remember that the Type 26 used to be the export-friendly Global Combat Ship. From hints about the threat environment, it sounds as if the Type 26 is now regarded as a very quiet high-end ASW ship. The risk is that the Type 26 could end up as a costly bespoke product like the Daring-class destroyer, and that the export market will be even harder to crack a decade hence.
Six days after Christmas is the season for resolving not to keep repeating one’s mistakes. British planners will have done well to avoid the need to do that, this time around.
Opinion: U.K. Defense Planners Deliver More ‘Hurry Up and Wait’ Decisions
Christmas came early for the British armed forces. The gentlemen (and ladies) of David Cameron’s Tory government responsible for the Strategic Defense & Security Review (SDSR) are resting merry. They hold an unexpected absolute majority in Parliament. The far-Left-led opposition, barring catastrophe, will be outside the door calling for figgy pudding for many years. Cameron’s team can afford to plan for the long term.
Scrooge’s change to his Christmas plans was influenced by ghosts, as was the U.K.’s decision to rebuild its fixed-wing antisubmarine warfare (ASW) force with nine Boeing P-8A Poseidons. The ghosts were the Nimrod AEW3 and MRA4 (based on a Ghost-powered airplane named Comet), two disastrous attempts by U.K. industry to build large reconnaissance and surveillance aircraft. They appear, rattling their chains, whenever a British defense planner contemplates doing that again.
British ASW technology is world-class. European companies have delivered complex maritime and other sensor systems (such as Airbus’s P-3 upgrade for Brazil). But the known-quantity P-8A has been on the surviving ASW community’s letter to Santa every year since the 2010 SDSR chopped the MRA4. Officials say that they thoroughly analyzed alternatives to the P-8A, but at least one executive explains how his company was involved in the process: “By realizing early on that the RAF wasn’t interested in any answer other than the P-8.”
The P-8A seems to work, but the U.S. Navy has loaded it with lots of toys and goodies—provision for a large ground-surveillance radar and a beefed-up wing to carry heavy weapons—making it heavy and expensive, with a smaller range and persistence advantage over older or smaller platforms than you might expect.
Speaking of yonder Istar (intelligence, surveillance, targeting and reconnaissance, to use the British term), the SDSR makes an offhand reference to keeping the E-3D Sentry airborne early-warning aircraft in service to 2035. That’s not a new plan, but it gets pricier by the year: The RAF aircraft still have their original, 1970s-technology control and display suites and have fallen behind the rest of the worldwide fleet. Given the E-3’s high cost per flight hour, a smaller replacement could make economic sense.
The British made a big deal about speeding up Lockheed Martin F-35B Joint Strike Fighter deliveries and committing to their long-planned 138-aircraft buy, but Fort Worth might be singing “Blue Christmas” when the implications of the SDSR hit home. The acceleration of the first 48 jets is relative to a very slow schedule that was never published; the remaining 90 aircraft, once set for delivery in the 2020s, are now, a senior U.K. official says in Washington, “a long way away” (beyond field and fountain, moor and mountain, in all likelihood). “We have not made any decision about future tranches and we don’t need to make them yet.”
As for the Eurofighter Typhoon: In the Mummer’s plays that my ancestors would perform for pennies and beer, and the hell with figgy pudding, the M.C.—Father Christmas—was a morally ambiguous character. (The joint global brand with St. Nicholas came later.) Once St. George had killed the dragon or the Turkish Knight, Father Christmas would summon the Doctor, who would produce a vial and say to the victim:
Here, Jack, take a little of my flip-flop
Pour it down thy tip-top
Rise and fight again!
Which is what SDSR has done for the Typhoon. Rivals have made hay for years with the U.K.’s squishy commitment to the Typhoon. The decision to retrofit the active, electronically scanned array radar, keep the type in service to 2040 and add two more squadrons will invigorate a rearguard action in Denmark (where one major party wants fighters that are good at air defense) and points to interesting times in Belgium and Canada. It makes the unfunded commitment to 138 JSFs look like window-dressing, complete with elves and plastic snow.Pour it down thy tip-top
Rise and fight again!
The Royal Navy, meanwhile, can at least see more than three ships come sailing in, although there will be eight Type 26 ASW frigates rather than the previously planned 13. The money for the other five will pay for a larger number of smaller, less costly, export-friendly frigates.
You may think that you remember that the Type 26 used to be the export-friendly Global Combat Ship. From hints about the threat environment, it sounds as if the Type 26 is now regarded as a very quiet high-end ASW ship. The risk is that the Type 26 could end up as a costly bespoke product like the Daring-class destroyer, and that the export market will be even harder to crack a decade hence.
Six days after Christmas is the season for resolving not to keep repeating one’s mistakes. British planners will have done well to avoid the need to do that, this time around.
Red On, Green On
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F-35 to pricey, Boeing likely to reap the benefit?
More Bad News for Lockheed Martin: The U.S. Air Force Just Isn't Into the F-35 -- The Motley Fool
More Bad News for Lockheed Martin: The U.S. Air Force Just Isn't Into the F-35 -- The Motley Fool
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Poor blogger, No one should use sweetman as a source if they don't want to be embarrassed.
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/ar...t-jets-419473/
USAF denies seeking more F-16 or F-15 combat jets
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/ar...t-jets-419473/
USAF denies seeking more F-16 or F-15 combat jets
You should compare that with Flight's report from the event where a senior ACC commander said exactly what AW&ST reported in the first place.
The fact that there isn't one should be your first clue. It's news, I'm sure, to someone living in Mom's basement in Perth, but Pentagon politics can be hard to fathom sometimes. Remember a few years ago, when the Navy issued an RFI for 36 new Super Hornets and then said it was a clerical oops?
The fact that there isn't one should be your first clue. It's news, I'm sure, to someone living in Mom's basement in Perth, but Pentagon politics can be hard to fathom sometimes. Remember a few years ago, when the Navy issued an RFI for 36 new Super Hornets and then said it was a clerical oops?
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I note that sweetman used his usual unnamed source again. "according to senior service and industry officials at the Defense IQ International Fighter Conference here."
and as you pointed out, he was the 'only' person to say the supposed buy of f16 and f15
Is this the same as Gripen being the new USAF trainer, or how the reprogramming labs work?
PS, I guess it's lucky I don't live in Perth then, hey. You need to face it LO, sweetman's a joke.
However what is f35 news and may add to the cost per unit in 2017 is
Budget '17: Pentagon Planning Cuts in Production, R&D
Then on Dec. 2, Kendall warned that "the disproportionate hits on '17 are going to be on modernization. I think that will probably be more on production than R&D."
"The F-35 is not — it is impossible in this budget to entirely protect it, just put it that way," Kendall responded. "Dollar for dollar, it probably gives us more combat capability than any other investment we're making, but we have a lot of other things that we have to do as well. So it's not entirely fenced. I can't say it's entirely fenced [off from cuts]."
However, he did say programs that make up the nuclear triad — the Ohio-class submarine, Long Range Strike-Bomber and new ICBM designs — would be a "priority" in the budget.
or
http://air.dfns.net/2015/12/07/israe...in-early-2017/
Israel to inactivate one F-16 squadron in early 2017
The Israeli Air Force will inactivate one squadron of F-16 fighters in early 2017 once its F-35s arrived from the United States.
and as you pointed out, he was the 'only' person to say the supposed buy of f16 and f15
Is this the same as Gripen being the new USAF trainer, or how the reprogramming labs work?
PS, I guess it's lucky I don't live in Perth then, hey. You need to face it LO, sweetman's a joke.
However what is f35 news and may add to the cost per unit in 2017 is
Budget '17: Pentagon Planning Cuts in Production, R&D
Then on Dec. 2, Kendall warned that "the disproportionate hits on '17 are going to be on modernization. I think that will probably be more on production than R&D."
"The F-35 is not — it is impossible in this budget to entirely protect it, just put it that way," Kendall responded. "Dollar for dollar, it probably gives us more combat capability than any other investment we're making, but we have a lot of other things that we have to do as well. So it's not entirely fenced. I can't say it's entirely fenced [off from cuts]."
However, he did say programs that make up the nuclear triad — the Ohio-class submarine, Long Range Strike-Bomber and new ICBM designs — would be a "priority" in the budget.
or
http://air.dfns.net/2015/12/07/israe...in-early-2017/
Israel to inactivate one F-16 squadron in early 2017
The Israeli Air Force will inactivate one squadron of F-16 fighters in early 2017 once its F-35s arrived from the United States.
Last edited by a1bill; 7th Dec 2015 at 12:41.
Apposite comments.
So whatever may be happening, the talk of F-35 cuts in the US is reaching high levels.
The trouble is that the plans assumed ever increasing budgets that are not happening, while operating costs are staying stubbornly high.
The acquisition community may say "we're doing what we said on flyaway cost, please don't mess with our program or say anything to worry the partners", but ACC and the CV Navy have squadrons to fill.
So whatever may be happening, the talk of F-35 cuts in the US is reaching high levels.
The trouble is that the plans assumed ever increasing budgets that are not happening, while operating costs are staying stubbornly high.
The acquisition community may say "we're doing what we said on flyaway cost, please don't mess with our program or say anything to worry the partners", but ACC and the CV Navy have squadrons to fill.
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Funny they aren't shifting f35 tails to f15/16. Let me know when this changes. BS speculation is just that.
when a f15 cost over $100m in 2006 and a CPH similar to the f35. It has as said, less. "Dollar for dollar, it [f35] probably gives us more combat capability than any other investment we're making"
I think it's sweetman's fantasy that they will buy serious numbers of 4th gen
PS, wild speculation, what could happen are some fa18 /growlers, post Aussie 12, to keep the line open
when a f15 cost over $100m in 2006 and a CPH similar to the f35. It has as said, less. "Dollar for dollar, it [f35] probably gives us more combat capability than any other investment we're making"
I think it's sweetman's fantasy that they will buy serious numbers of 4th gen
PS, wild speculation, what could happen are some fa18 /growlers, post Aussie 12, to keep the line open
Last edited by a1bill; 7th Dec 2015 at 09:38.
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Dollar for dollar, it [f35] probably gives us more combat capability than any other investment we're making"
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What part of "sweetman wrote a rubbish article" don't you understand?
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/ar...t-jets-419473/
LaPlante : “That story was news to me,” he quipped. “We’re always struggling to get the production rate as high as we can get it on F-35. That’s as true as saying it’s cold outside. It’s always true.”
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/ar...t-jets-419473/
LaPlante : “That story was news to me,” he quipped. “We’re always struggling to get the production rate as high as we can get it on F-35. That’s as true as saying it’s cold outside. It’s always true.”
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@A1bill, why so strident re Sweetman and AW yet no mention of the other data source in the Fool article, BGA-Aeroweb?
You are exposing yourself as the Sweetman baiting, obsessed troll that you clearly are a1bill. (Or jackjack of JSFan?)
You are exposing yourself as the Sweetman baiting, obsessed troll that you clearly are a1bill. (Or jackjack of JSFan?)
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What part of "sweetman wrote a rubbish article" don't you understand?
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/ar...t-jets-419473/
LaPlante : “That story was news to me,” he quipped. “We’re always struggling to get the production rate as high as we can get it on F-35. That’s as true as saying it’s cold outside. It’s always true.”
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/ar...t-jets-419473/
LaPlante : “That story was news to me,” he quipped. “We’re always struggling to get the production rate as high as we can get it on F-35. That’s as true as saying it’s cold outside. It’s always true.”
We are, increasingly, left to presume that you actually don't have anything worthwhile of your own to actually post then?
Gentlemen
At 406 pages, this thread is in some ways already answered, and in some ways it isn't.
It hasn't been cancelled. But, it's a multi national project/program.
In some countries, the purchase decision has changed, and in others options are being explored due to the program being extended/delayed, and the cost per unit apparently going up again. The F-35 remains a work in progress whose first involvement in ops remains to be seen.
I was able to summarize this thread without rancor nor insult to anyone. I encourage my fellow participants to do likewise.
Five years ago, V-22 Osprey was still being attacked as too expensive and controversial. As of today, its operational record has shown it works pretty well, it's still expensive, and now foreign customers are showing up.
Will F-35, once it gets into operating, fare likewise?
I'd guess "yes" but my crystal ball is hazy.
At 406 pages, this thread is in some ways already answered, and in some ways it isn't.
It hasn't been cancelled. But, it's a multi national project/program.
In some countries, the purchase decision has changed, and in others options are being explored due to the program being extended/delayed, and the cost per unit apparently going up again. The F-35 remains a work in progress whose first involvement in ops remains to be seen.
I was able to summarize this thread without rancor nor insult to anyone. I encourage my fellow participants to do likewise.
Five years ago, V-22 Osprey was still being attacked as too expensive and controversial. As of today, its operational record has shown it works pretty well, it's still expensive, and now foreign customers are showing up.
Will F-35, once it gets into operating, fare likewise?
I'd guess "yes" but my crystal ball is hazy.
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a1bill,
LaPlante quote:
In the political world, LaPlante's statement is known as "Never Say Never". To receivers of the statement it is interpreted as hedging one's bet. Did you notice Laplante is on his way out of his DoD procurement position? Furthermore, situations within the Pentagon run much deeper than just the singular F-35 program. Can you name one significant program emerging from DoD in recent times that has been successful, on time, on budget? Here are some recent significant programs:
Actual cost of the new Gerald Ford (CVN-78) aircraft carrier has risen 23% since the 2008 budget submitted to Congress and now stands at $12.89 Billion, $370 million over the Congressional cost cap. The Navy says there is a greater than 50% chance the cost will rise. Two more carriers (CVN-79 & CVN-80) are planned. Congress is threatening to not provide funding for CVN-79 or CVN-80 starts unless the Navy comes to grips with continued cost overruns on CVN-78.
US Navy Zumwalt class destroyer program (DDG1000). Originally, 32 destroyers were planned, then reduced to 24 , then to 7 and now to 2, effectively cancelling the program. 11 years and $10 billion expended on the program, the US Nave said they really didn’t need the Zumwalt class and are buying more current Arleigh Burke-class destroyers at significant reduced costs. The only reason the 2 are being built is to maintain ship building capacity.
The US Navy Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) program that has two variants, the Independence class and the Freedom class. It was determined in 2010 that neither class could survive in a close into shore combat situation, the situation they were designed for. The cost for the Freedom rose to $637 million and the cost for the Independence rose to $704 million. At the moment a combination of 24 LCS Freedom & Independence ships will be built with “enhanced” survival capability.
The story of the F-35 program has been well discussed relative to both performance and cost. The US Navy is close to deciding additional purchases of F-18 Super Hornets in lieu of F-35s because of various reasons including timing & cost of F-35s.
There is a bigger picture to be examined and all is not well within the Pentagon.
TD
LaPlante quote:
Asked to categorically confirm or deny any new fighter purchase, a spokesman for the service’s acquisition office says: “At this time the air force has no plans to acquire 72 new F-15s or F-16s, although the air force is always looking at options to be prepared for a dynamic global security environment.”
Actual cost of the new Gerald Ford (CVN-78) aircraft carrier has risen 23% since the 2008 budget submitted to Congress and now stands at $12.89 Billion, $370 million over the Congressional cost cap. The Navy says there is a greater than 50% chance the cost will rise. Two more carriers (CVN-79 & CVN-80) are planned. Congress is threatening to not provide funding for CVN-79 or CVN-80 starts unless the Navy comes to grips with continued cost overruns on CVN-78.
US Navy Zumwalt class destroyer program (DDG1000). Originally, 32 destroyers were planned, then reduced to 24 , then to 7 and now to 2, effectively cancelling the program. 11 years and $10 billion expended on the program, the US Nave said they really didn’t need the Zumwalt class and are buying more current Arleigh Burke-class destroyers at significant reduced costs. The only reason the 2 are being built is to maintain ship building capacity.
The US Navy Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) program that has two variants, the Independence class and the Freedom class. It was determined in 2010 that neither class could survive in a close into shore combat situation, the situation they were designed for. The cost for the Freedom rose to $637 million and the cost for the Independence rose to $704 million. At the moment a combination of 24 LCS Freedom & Independence ships will be built with “enhanced” survival capability.
The story of the F-35 program has been well discussed relative to both performance and cost. The US Navy is close to deciding additional purchases of F-18 Super Hornets in lieu of F-35s because of various reasons including timing & cost of F-35s.
There is a bigger picture to be examined and all is not well within the Pentagon.
TD
Tourist...
Sadly, the US Air Force itself has sawn the credibility of a public statement by any F-35 pilot in a U.S. command (that is to say, pretty much all of them) off at the knees:
http://cdn.warisboring.com/images/F-...s-Guidance.pdf
You may be honest as the day is long about your love for the F-35, but when it's public knowledge that you can't say anything else that's a bit of a problem.
While I have dished out the abuse and sarcasm on occasion here, I submit that except on occasional bad days the targets have earned it...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KiBsa9zFesc
... whether by backstabbing this forum on fankiddy sites, making
up (eg "Gen 4 helmet" - you know who you are), or by obsessive repetition of the same themes, which is what a1bill has been doing.
Sadly, the US Air Force itself has sawn the credibility of a public statement by any F-35 pilot in a U.S. command (that is to say, pretty much all of them) off at the knees:
http://cdn.warisboring.com/images/F-...s-Guidance.pdf
You may be honest as the day is long about your love for the F-35, but when it's public knowledge that you can't say anything else that's a bit of a problem.
While I have dished out the abuse and sarcasm on occasion here, I submit that except on occasional bad days the targets have earned it...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KiBsa9zFesc
... whether by backstabbing this forum on fankiddy sites, making
up (eg "Gen 4 helmet" - you know who you are), or by obsessive repetition of the same themes, which is what a1bill has been doing.