F-35 Cancelled, then what ?

[Kitbag]

...interesting to see an incredibly negative attitude toward the F-35 here on these forums, which is in stark comparison to some other forums I've read through in which current serving members of industry have conveyed a very optimistic and positive attitude toward the program..

The difference between realists and optomists?

[ORAC]

and optomists?

Those viewing the world through rose tinted glasses?

[Very Sneaky]

Originally Posted by Kitbag

The difference between realists and optomists?

or pessimists masquerading as realists

[Engines]

Whether you're a realist, an optimist, wearing rose tinted glasses or just way cool shades, there's one thing that does stand out from the video that we might all agree on. The number of Brits associated with the test programme.

From personal experience, I know that there are many highly talented people out there, young and older, who are working damn hard to bring the F-35B through its flight test programme. And 2012's programme was demanding from the outset. (Answer to S41). In that clip, you saw any number of Brits who are making a decisive contribution to a hell of a tough task. That level of involvement in a highly classified US defence programme is a testament to talent, persistence and mutual respect on the ground for the UK's years of leadership and expertise in designing and fielding STOVL combat aircraft. I'm proud as hell of the job they are doing.

I absolutely respect the right of anyone to come on a forum and say anything they want - but just occasionally, it would be nice if people gave a little thought to the talented individuals out there who they are effectively 'slagging off' in public. This forum does, I'm sorry to say, lose credibility when opponents (and proponents) of the programme lash out with opinions that lack any factual basis.

I suppose what I'm saying is 'let's all try to play a bit more nicely', and give smart people a measure of respect.

And, to play by the rules and address the thread's question - I think the chance of the F-35 being cancelled is extremely low. There will probably be future reductions, but look at the alternatives for the US - make more F-18s, F-16s and F-15s. That would put the USA in the 'second tier' of combat aircraft designing nations. Honestly, I can't see that happening. The USMC are solidly behind the B, the USN needs the C, and the USAF has to get the A.

If the F-35 were to be canned, the UK would be in a very bad place for any future combat aircraft apart from Typhoon derivatives - and I've posted my thoughts on that prospect before. It would also mean the end of the Uk's aspirations for maritime strike. But as I've said, i see that as a remote prospect.

Best Regards as ever to all those just getting on with a tough job,

Engines

[Willard Whyte]

That brings a tear to the eye.



Or I could just be standing outside in the cold wind.

[LowObservable]

I am sorry, Engines...

But I started reading your post in the voice of Graham Chapman's Colonel and could not stop.

Yes, there are dedicated and good people working on the program for all the right reasons.

Unfortunately, too many of the people in charge at the top level over the past few years have done their level best to cover up real problems and to discredit groups and individuals who have been trying to raise the alarm. In some cases they have caused real damage. The contractors have also paid third parties to write complete s about the program, simply to muddy the waters.

Which is to say that you may be an upright and honorable or wing commander, but if your generals and air marshals are liars and bullies you are going to have a tough ride.

Also, a rational assessment of the program's problems back in 2007-08 would have placed it in much better shape today to ride out the coming budget storm.

[Engines]

OK guys, not entirely unexpected responses.

Best Regards as ever to everyone

Engines

[BEagle]

Surely it's time to conduct a feasibility into the cost of STOBAR modifications to the QE carriers in support of operating Dassault's Rafale?

Rafale continues to acquit itself well and has now been selected by India. BWoS would probably whinge like crazy, but if F-35 is indeed cancelled, surely Rafale M would suit the UK's need - if not politics?

[Lonewolf_50]

Kelly Bott is so hot. (The engineer about half way through the puff piece).

And a puff piece it is, but I would like to second the points that Engines made: some very good people are doing their best to make this a success. I hope they do.

JSFFan:

FFS, do you not realize that your are interacting with people who actually know a thing or two about military aviation?

EDIT: Ok, I wandered through the L.M. reclama to the critique, and discern an IOC of 2017.

FFS, that's four years from now.
I was working some mid to low level JSF related training projects in 2001 and 2002. The program had been underway for some years at that point. (Won't get into the noise abatement issues we had to address, separate issue that just makes me ill)

*shakes head*

Getting an aircraft into the field just in time for it to be old news seems to be a habit ... see the B-2.

[WhiteOvies]

Perhaps the people who actually know where the programme is becasue they are working on it every day have given up commenting?

It seems rather like the US gun debate: with both sides completely entrenched and shouting so loudly they cannot hear even the slightest element of what the other is saying. One side will not believe anything positive in the media about F-35 but will leap on everything negative, whilst the other will exaggerate everything positive without recognising that there are issues that need to be overcome.

F-35B is fielded with an operational Squadron at Yuma but not with it's full capabilities. Was Eurofighter or Tornado F-3 any different? FFS when Eurofighter was need to drop bombs for real after how many years of dvelopment etc it had to rely on buddy lasing and as for Blue Circle...!

Unless you want a hugely elongated capability gap caused by starting from scratch and the loss of any maritime strike aspirations then, like it or not, F-35B is the UK's only option. Cancellation of F-35 would also probably bancrupt BAES and LM with associated massive loss of jobs on both sides of the Atlantic, I really can't see the politicians wearing that.

Expecting incoming....

[Bastardeux]

But it's another 6 years before the mission capable software is integrated...the high price we're paying for an existing elongated loss of capability is IMHO, people's biggest gripes...and it obviously leads to the question of how much longer until full capabilities are integrated...

With regards to a permanent loss of maritime strike, have they already made the compartments for PoW that would need to be altered? I would think the timing of any adjustment or cancellation would be the biggest factor. If it happened this year, I would say super hornets are the likely alternative.

[kbrockman]

Man in white ovies,

I don't think you'll have to fear a lot of incoming for your comments because they actually make sense and pretty much sum up what all this has lead to.
The US and UK are pretty much forced to go with the JSF not because of its merits but mostly because of ulterior motives like the faith of Marine corps and fleet air arm fighter jet long term faith, combined with the faith of LM and in a lesser degree Bae.

Doesn't mean we have to follow suit into the abyss, for many of the other nations there are alternatives who make a hell of a lot more sense.

[ORAC]

EDIT: Ok, I wandered through the L.M. reclama to the critique, and discern an IOC of 2017.

The latest SAR quotes an earliest date of 2019, with a probable additional slip of 18 months into 2021.

Which date would you be prepared to put money on?

Lagging JSF Software Development Worries Pentagon DOT&E

........Software problems are part but not all of the reason for slow progress with weapons integration, along with optimistic and inaccurate assumptions about the need for margins and the availability of instrumentation and range support. “The impact of these delays will potentially require an additional 18 months added to the schedule for weapons integration events,” the report warns.

The report adds to the uncertainty surrounding the F-35’s initial operational capability (IOC) dates. Last summer, Congress added language to the 2013 budget that called on the U.S. Air Force and Navy to name IOC dates for all three versions by year’s end — then changed the deadline to June 1 at the last minute. The most recent Selected Acquisition Report disclosed that Block 3F initial operational test and evaluation, a necessary event for IOC, would not be finished until 2019 — and that does not include any additional weapons integration time.

[AtomKraft]

Lockheed (Martin) are a brilliant company and if anyone can pull off the JSF, it's them.

But, to me they got the basic concept wrong right at the start. OK, with the utterly brilliant resources at their disposal, they might be able to work their way out of it- a bit like Porsche did with the 911- but there's no getting away from the decisions made right at the start of the program.

There were some great minds involved in the Harrier, and at that time a great deal of effort was expended by the worlds leading aviation brains in other countries, trying to solve the problem of a VTOL fighter.

HS pulled it off with the P1127/ Kestrel/ Harrier/ AV-8C series. Everyone else got either nothing or a clunker.

I think the coupled lift fan thing is a dud- for the same reason that the other VTOL aircraft apart from Harrier were duds. Dead weight- and let no-one say that JSF doesn't have weight problems!

If they simply had to have a new jet, they should have maybe started by redesigning the Pegasus, and worked away from there.

You can't polish a turd- even if you're as good as L-M.

[kbrockman]

AtomKraft claimed,

You can't polish a turd

which is clearly not true

[Kitbag]

The difference between realists and optomists?

Bugger, should have tried harder at school , but I do like ORACs definition. Anyone got a number for the OED?

[Just This Once...]

Those viewing the world through rose tinted glasses?

Or those viewing the world through a 150-millisecond latency requirement?

[kbrockman]

F-35B Flights Suspended Following Fueldraulic Failure | Defense News | defensenews.com

F-35B Flights Suspended Following Fueldraulic Failure
Jan. 18, 2013 - 03:32PM |
By AARON MEHTA

The DoD office in charge of the Joint Strike Fighter suspended flight operations on the F-35B (STOVL) variant Friday for precautionary reasons after a problem was discovered with the fueldraulic system in the jet, officials confirmed for Defense News.

All STOVL variant aircraft operating at Eglin Air Force base, Fla., Marine Air Station Yuma, Ariz., and Lockheed’s production factory in Fort Worth, Texas, have been grounded while engineer teams review data on the jet.

The office made the decision after a 10:00 a.m. CST test flight at Eglin was aborted by the pilot during a conventional takeoff roll. There were no injuries to the pilot or the crew.

The abort occurred because of a failure to a propulsion fueldraulic line, which enables movement in the actuators for the STOVL’s exhaust system.

The F-35A (conventional) and F-35C (carrier) variants are unaffected.

[glad rag]

@ Engines

I don't think that anyone is belittling the engineers who are working to a set program of development. Period.

Will the overall LO characteristics of the airframe "last" the for it's full service life?

If not, then all we have are extremely expensive targets.

[airsound]

According to DefenseNews

There were no injuries to the pilot or the crew.

That's a relief, then. Specially for the crew. It's difficult enough being crew on a single-seater.

airsound