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Has the Middle East Peaked as a Hub ?

Middle East Many expats still flying in Knoteetingham. Regional issues can be discussed here.

Has the Middle East Peaked as a Hub ?

Old 13th Jun 2020, 16:11
  #41 (permalink)  
 
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I agree, they’ll continue to operate at a reduced pace, nobody knows for how long but among the three, considering that all of them are not making any profit ( except for Cargo ) since a long time, the only one with a better fleet and with more money is Qatar Airways, Emirates is too big and has the most uneconomical fleet of all, Ethiad is a mess, Saudia is a complete disaster.
When passengers will start traveling again, for business or pleasure they’ll chose the best option, price and quality wise and no airline in the world can compete with them.
only time will tell.... Let’s wait and see.
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Old 13th Jun 2020, 18:07
  #42 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Jack330 View Post
I agree, they’ll continue to operate at a reduced pace, nobody knows for how long but among the three, considering that all of them are not making any profit ( except for Cargo ) since a long time, the only one with a better fleet and with more money is Qatar Airways, Emirates is too big and has the most uneconomical fleet of all,

Not sure about that. Both airlines have similar fleet sizes but Qatar have 6 different types in service compared with only 2 for EK thus leaving them with much larger fixed costs and inflexibility. Average age of the fleet isn't a lot different either at 6 and 7 years. OK presently EK cannot fill the A380 but given the size of the 777 fleet it will be a long time before they run out of capacity on any route.
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Old 13th Jun 2020, 18:53
  #43 (permalink)  
 
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Many countries did not realize EK/QR were stealing market share before it was too late . As countries recover their first priority will be to protect there national carrier and review and restrict EK/QR basically unrestricted axcess . 787/350 can now skip the hub . EK/QR are going to be big targets as we emerge from this crisis , with no one having sympathy for STC or his counterparts.

Last edited by fatbus; 14th Jun 2020 at 22:49.
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Old 13th Jun 2020, 21:04
  #44 (permalink)  
 
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A fleet of A380's cannot compare with a mix fleet of A350 B777 B787, Qatar will dismiss all A380 with immediate effect, A350 and B787 burn almost the same fuel of an A321 and the B777 is one of the most successful machines ever, it carries a huge amount of cargo in the belly making it profitable even when flying with no pax, carrying only cargo.
A fleet of 120 and more A380's is a suicide, they are the less profitable machines ever built, you cannot compare at all, imho qatar is a winner no doubt.
A380 is not even good for cargo, it's only amazing for passenger comfort.. Emirates is in deep s.... It was ok many years ago, those times are long gone, it was a very bad planning, they have a large number of B777 that maybe will save the company otherwise...
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Old 13th Jun 2020, 21:59
  #45 (permalink)  
 
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Jack - I think you are missing the point a bit. The 380's are not flying and wont be for a very long time. EK have enough 777's to be able to service their route network on a schedule that will fit foreseeable demand well into the future. The 380's will only be brought back into service when the demand exists and when that happens then they will be profitable. What you also have to bear in mind is that Qatar were losing millions and needing a bailout even before the Coronavirus shut down international travel - the 'norm' for Qatar is losing around $500 million a year.
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Old 14th Jun 2020, 08:12
  #46 (permalink)  
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Saudi aren't really in the hub airline market. They provide a domestic network, flights to neighbouring countries, international routes tailored towards their migrant workers and rich locals going shopping or doing business. Now and again they will pop up in a search as a possible option for a connecting flight but it's not their bread and butter. Riyadh and Jeddah aren't the best of airports to transit through, there is no alcohol allowed and until very recently entry requirements were highly restrictive. Kuwait Airways are the same but without the domestic part. These airlines aren't reliant on connecting passengers and will be much less affected as they don't need to worry about filling three A380s a day into Bangkok with pax joining from other cities on the network.

The ME3 all have common problems with the reduction in demand for long haul international travel, particularly in the premium cabins. Transit restrictions and pax preference will be for direct flights and it will be easy for governments to assist their own airlines by placing restrictions on the ME3 for "health reasons". Cabin crew in particular tend to live in shared accommodation in a few common buildings and would flag up as a high risk straight away. Large parts of their networks will remain off limits for some time to come and keeping out of the Indian subcontinent which is a major market for both pax and migrant workers will be costly and difficult.

Emirates aircraft are now too big and they will find it difficult to fill them up and maintain reasonable connection times. They don't have the flexibility of smaller aircraft which allow capacity and frequency to be more finely adjusted to match supply and demand across the network.

EY have managed to lose money even in the best of times and now it will only get worse.

Qatar were losing money due to the blockade, however their mix of aircraft was better and downsizing to A320/B787 is an option which could give them a head start. The lifting of the blockade is a huge factor in this case.

Airlines such as Finnair or EVA Air which offer transits through low risk countries could grab market share in the meantime. Vietnam Airlines could become a major operator on the London to Australia route. Airlines such as these will have a head start as restrictions are lifted.

The Middle East offers many advantages such as location, tax and labour laws. The question isn't about if it's finished as a hub, but if it will retain the same level of importance in the future.

Last edited by krismiler; 14th Jun 2020 at 10:14.
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Old 14th Jun 2020, 12:02
  #47 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Jet II
The 380's are not flying and wont be for a very long time.
July 1st a very long time? AFAIK that's the current planned date to restart 380 ops!
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Old 14th Jun 2020, 13:04
  #48 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by White Knight View Post
July 1st a very long time? AFAIK that's the current planned date to restart 380 ops!
To where?. No point flying it to London if the UK's 14 day quarantine is still in operation, North America is still banning leisure travel as is OZ and NZ.

If all you have is a smattering of PAX and a lot of freight then putting the whale back in the air is lunacy.
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Old 14th Jun 2020, 14:04
  #49 (permalink)  
 
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Jet
You are barking up the most dyed-in-the-wood tree here. It's pure desperation from the poor guys who ignored It for years when others told them that their toy is good for pretty days, but those never lasted long. In catastrophic times it will be the first to be ditched and here we are.
Twins will reign the world in recovery.
Concerning protectionism, i think fatty is right, EK will face it big time. No one will shed a tear for EK, even less for TC, but unfortunately no one will for its pilots either. We were mainly considered scabs, as we tried that mercenary route. By doing so, we all knew that we were at the mercy of the new masters, and we knew how little morality existed among them. So all that lamenting about the ways we're served off seems a little hypocritical, it was already written on the wall when we signed up.
The culling is inevitable, the method is questionable, but not unexpected.
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Old 14th Jun 2020, 14:24
  #50 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by glofish
You are barking up the most dyed-in-the-wood tree here.
We don't all become bitter and twisted after decades in flying gloey.... Chin up old bean!
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Old 14th Jun 2020, 15:18
  #51 (permalink)  
 
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Point to point and travel bubbles will be the first airtravel openings, therefore it will be very difficult to get enough passengers to fill those huge planes in the ME. What is getting now daily worse is the coronavirus situation in the ME prime market: India, Pakistan, Africa and Brazil. It will become even more difficult to fill these large planes and the competition will increase sharply between the 3 rivals. I believe for the moment QR has the best opportunities, a rich country supporting its national carrier and having no burden of the A380 , it has a diverse fleet of fuel efficient aircraft from longrange to short hops, using A320, A350, B787 and on top of it a large cargo fleet of A330, B777, B747 and a new lucrative 2 year contract with tHe UN.
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Old 15th Jun 2020, 04:05
  #52 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by White Knight View Post
We don't all become bitter and twisted after decades in flying gloey.... Chin up old bean!
I dare pretend not being bitter, but realistic.
Left at the right time.
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Old 15th Jun 2020, 11:18
  #53 (permalink)  
 
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There is of course the counter argument that fuel is cheap. Spare parts for the A380 are going to be a lot cheaper after all the parting out of retired airframes and what better aircraft to allow some element of social distancing? There is no certainty that the A380 is finished. Although for it to have a chance some degree of innovative thinking is going to be required.
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