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Goodbye Dubai

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Old 30th Nov 2009, 15:53
  #121 (permalink)  
 
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They are paying for their greed, its a wake up call for change, raping the sea was their worst crime.
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Old 30th Nov 2009, 16:20
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The intrinsic unimportance of Dubai World and the important wider message it conveys

Probably not of much interest to some posters as its not hysterical enough
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Old 30th Nov 2009, 16:56
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...raping the sea was their worst crime.
You right newscaster! These guys should have gone inland and make it greener and liveable instead.
However, this next statement as reported by the FT today really surprised me if at all true:
Abdulrahman al-Saleh, director general of Dubai’s department of finance, said in an interview with Dubai TV that creditors had to take responsibility for their own lending decisions and differentiate between advances to companies and the state. He also said global markets had overreacted to the news.
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Old 30th Nov 2009, 20:48
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Standard! Standard! Read awl abaht it!

London Evening Standard 30 Nov 2009:

In a statement which spooked investors, Abdulrahman al-Saleh, director general of Dubai's department of finance said: “Creditors need to take part of the responsibility for their decision to lend to the companies.

“They think Dubai World is part of the government which is not correct. The government is the owner of the company but since its foundation it was established that the company is not guaranteed by the government.”[]

“The form of the proposed debt restructuring [at Dubai World] could increase the likelihood of downgrades of bank financial strength ratings for the UAE banks are already on review.”

Moheiddine Kronfol of Algebra Capital said: “They [the Dubai government] have confirmed there is going to be a restructuring and are doing what they can to differentiate between the government and the companies. It doesn't take away from the fact that you have a major potential event that is unravelling.

“The fact that you still don't have the facts means this is a fluid situation.”

Mohammad Ali Yasan of Shuaa Securities said: “We shouldn't expect anyone to bail anybody out.
“The banks that are the debtors need to come and sit with the government,” he added.
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Old 1st Dec 2009, 05:13
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Where is it cast in stone that taxes can't be inroduced?

I rather thought the opposite - the mechanism exists, but is unused, no?
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Old 1st Dec 2009, 06:03
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How many more upmarket 4x4's will be dumped at the airport car park? Saw an news clip from Sky yesterday showing '6 months dust' on a jeep, complete with graffiti
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Old 1st Dec 2009, 09:15
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LR3 - Like it!

They always talked about building an artificial reef just for surfing - who would have thought it could be one of the Palms!

Lets have the public take back all the beaches that have been lost for development!

On a more seriousness note - it should be an interesting couple of weeks ahead as they try and save face and sort this mess out!!

Cheers!!
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Old 1st Dec 2009, 09:41
  #128 (permalink)  
 
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Dubai holds out as debt crash nears

DUBAI, GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS, NAKHEEL

Glenn Dyer writes:

Dubai's government has told banks owed money by its major business arm, Dubai World, and its property group, Nakheel, to go jump.

It wasn't so much an act of defiance, more telling banks the reality of the situation into which they lent money. Dubai World and Nakheel may be government-owned, but they are not government-guaranteed.

And like grown-ups, Dubai World and Nakheel have started restructuring talks with their banks covering $US26 billion of debt, including the $US4 billion Islamic loan due on December 14.

The proposal involves Dubai World and subsidiaries including Nakheel World and Limitless World while excluding units such as Infinity World Holding, Istithmar World and Ports & Free Zone World, "which are on a stable financial footing", Dubai World said in a statement. The amount includes about $US6 billion of Islamic bonds sold by Nakheel. They are the ones Nakheel halted trading on earlier on the local exchange.

"It is envisaged the restructuring process will be carried out in an equitable way for the overall benefit of all stakeholders," Dubai World said in the statement, reported on Reuters, Bloomberg and Dow Jones wires.

Of course, there's a downside for the government and the Royal family that owns Dubai (the Maktoums) in that their grandiose visions for the emirate as a financial centre and entrepot will be dead for a year or three, or until the next generation of eager bankers arrive with no memory and oodles of money and a need for bonus-boosting deals.

The Dubai government said after markets had fallen by about 7% on Monday that it was not responsible for the debts of its flagship conglomerate, and offered nothing much else on last week's call for a six-month standstill on billions of dollars in debts owed by Dubai World and Nakheel.

The government's defiant stand came in a TV interview by Dubai's leading finance official who said:

"Creditors need to take part of the responsibility for their decision to lend to the companies. They think Dubai World is part of the government, which is not correct," said Abdulrahman Saleh, director general of Dubai's department of finance. He said that banks did not need extra liquidity and that the market reaction to Dubai World's restructuring had been overblown.

The Dubai World statement came later, but hasn't been posted on its website.

Indeed, other commentators have pointed out that the 2006 prospectus from Nakheel for a near $US4 billion Islamic bond raising did point out that the offering was not guaranteed by the Dubai government.

The Financial Times blog, FT Alphaville had a post last week with the structure of the Nakheel Islamic loan (called a sukuk). It’s a structure that would not be out of place in Barry Jones' now-famous Knowledge Nation Spaghetti special of a few years ago. Anyone who leant on something so complicated and claimed to understand it, deserves to lose money.

DB World and Nakheel are private companies whose share capital is owned by the government, which therefore limits the government's obligations to the capital of the two groups.

The Dubai government could have also reminded banks that they had a duty to "know their customer"; a banking adage that was jettisoned years ago, but again has been made relevant by the rorts and frauds in the subprime markets in the US and other markets (Bernie Madoff, for example).

Nakheel's move to halt trading on $US5.25 billion of its bonds has trapped investors who couldn't sell last week because the markets have been closed. That will further annoy the nervous nellies among the banks who believe they should have a free "get-out-of-jail" pass by being paid out by the government.

But if you lend money, you have to be prepared to lose it, no matter who owns the borrower. For years no one thought that Lehman Brothers would go bust, or Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac would be taken over by the federal government, which most investors though already owned them.

In fact some commentators have pointed out parallels between Dubai World, Nakheel and Fannie and Freddie.

The Financial Times assessed the response in these terms in its Lex column:

"The problem is is that global investors see the borrowers' woes as a microcosm of the emirate’s. The latter’s failure to communicate decisively and promptly with the capital markets on which it relies has dented its chances of becoming a credible financial services hub over the coming decade. Still, the United Arab Emirates central bank’s liquidity support for local and foreign lenders should give regional banks a lifeline for now."

Dubai is now just an isolated outbreak, but watch Greece for a much bigger blow. There's lots of talk of the European Commission and ECB refusing a bailout, except on tough terms, and eventually the International Monetary Fund coming to do the dirty work. More losses for banks. Greece needs to roll over and raise close to $US70 billion of loans in 2010. Fat chance. More problems for banks.
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Old 1st Dec 2009, 14:53
  #129 (permalink)  
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Of course, there's a downside for the government and the Royal family that owns Dubai (the Maktoums) in that their grandiose visions for the emirate as a financial center and entrepot will be dead for a year or three, or until the next generation of eager bankers arrive with no memory and oodles of money and a need for bonus-boosting deals.
Dubai is now just an isolated outbreak, but watch Greece for a much bigger blow. There's lots of talk of the European Commission and ECB refusing a bailout, except on tough terms, and eventually the International Monetary Fund coming to do the dirty work. More losses for banks. Greece needs to roll over and raise close to $US70 billion of loans in 2010. Fat chance. More problems for banks.

In my mind these are the 2 issues that everyone must understand and the reason why I titled this thread "Goodbye Dubai" (and why I chose to contribute way more than I normally do to Pprune). I chose that title carefully as I hope it is a wake up call for those who have been asleep the past 2 years.

1) Irrespective of the "negotiated settlement" Dubai does with this first default (remember this is just the first of series of approximately 8 huge upcoming bond repayments due over the next two years), if neither Dubai or Abu Dhabi doesn"t provide a backstop (which they have stated to this date they will not do), I expect further FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) funding to the UAE (mostly Dubai but also Abu Dhabi as a fallout) will come at a VERY steep cost in the future. No funds (or extremely expensive funds) = no growth.

"Dubai" as we have come to know it over the past decade (based upon growth, GDP, real estate, Emirates expansion, etc, etc, etc ) is finished. Plain and simple. Goodbye Dubai. I can't be any more clear.

2) Irrespective of the above, the world economy still teeters on the head of a pin. The Dubai story is just small potatoes as to what might come if risk aversion kicks in and everyone withdraws their risk capital. There are probably 6-8 markets I could list that are many times bigger than Dubai that could be next to fall from the catalyst of the Dubai default. Note the Dubai/Abu Dhabi markets have detached themselves from the rest of the world the past 2 days (world market up, UAE markets collapsing). Watch the next 2 weeks; it will be the "tell" as far as I am concerned.

Having said that, I want to make it clear this is not the end. Dubai will survive/ the UAE will survive/ Emirates will survive. What I am saying is for those of you who have come to Dubai over the past 6 years.....do not expect anything like you have experienced to date as being "normal".

I have lived here for a considerable time; I am looking forward to the empty roads, empty beaches and half full flights on EK to get my wife on board for the occasional flight outstation. Many of you might not be in a similar financial position depending upon how you have conducted your "fiscal life" during the good times here the past few years. Those who have been "savers" while living here will relish this as the future "good times" in Dubai. Many will suffer; those that have huge CC debt and drive new Range Rovers.....good luck to you, I have no sympathy.

Those that are hard working EK F/O's who brought their families here looking for the "promise land" and have been frugal; I salute you. It is you who I most fear for and discuss this issue with as we go through the next few years (if you've flown with me; you know who I am).

I expect I will have little to do with this thread going forward unless I feel I have something to offer. Everything here has been just my opinion.....for what it is worth.

Last edited by Dune; 1st Dec 2009 at 16:17.
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Old 1st Dec 2009, 16:11
  #130 (permalink)  
 
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Don’t moan, look closer to home

by Andrew WhiteThis email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it on Tuesday, 01 December 2009 John Meynard Keynes had it about right. “If I owe you a pound, I have a problem,” he once said. “But if I owe you a million, the problem is yours.”

Nowhere has that been more starkly illustrated than in the announcement this week that the Dubai government won’t guarantee the debts of Dubai World. The conglomerate owes around $59bn to a string of creditors around the world, and international institutions are scrambling over themselves to try and reclaim cash they presumed was covered by the emirate’s ruling family.

The UK is in a particular panic, as evidenced by the stream of hysterical media reports that have spewed forth over the last few days. Dubai has variously been referenced as an island, a country within its own right, and a landlocked desert oasis. Meanwhile, one esteemed publication speculated that the sovereign state of Qatar was set to sell its stake in carmaker Volkswagen, in order to bail out its ‘fellow emirate’.
Geographic gaffes aside, the Fourth Estate has gone feral. Denigrating Dubai as a “monument to vanity and greed” (The Daily Mail), it is attacking the emirate with the kind of venom previously reserved for the ‘fat cat’ banking executives accused of pocketing huge bonuses even during the worst days of the credit crunch.

Such vitriol can perhaps be attributed to the fact that thousands of Brits have lost their jobs in Dubai as a result of the downturn. It has been a brutal 2008, and there won’t be a Dubai-based reader who has yet to see a friend or colleague booted back to Blighty.

This aside, the feeding frenzy may also be attributed to the fact that UK banks have the largest exposures to the UAE from among international banks, estimated at $49.9bn. This represents no less than 40 percent of foreign banks’ total exposure to the Emirates.

HSBC and Standard Chartered are the most exposed, with $17bn and $12.3bn in loans to Dubai World Group, respectively. And not far behind come Barclays and RBS, each of which has extended significant credit to the conglomerate.

If you would believe the more splenetic coverage, each of these venerable finance houses has been duped by a mean-spirited state-owned conglomerate that implied government support but never really intended to settle its debts. Sucked into the sandpit, the noble Brit bankers have been robbed blind in the desert and left for the crows.

Except some of the aforementioned institutions have previous form; it’s not been a vintage couple of years for the bastions of British banking.

In March, HSBC absorbed losses estimated to be somewhere between $30bn and $62bn as it closed down the branch network of its HSBC Finance arm in the US.

Standard Chartered and Barclays will each have written down billions of dollars of toxic debts before the year is out. And in the case of RBS, we should not forget that a series of hideous errors of judgment have left it all but nationalised – the UK government presently owns an 80.4 percent stake in the troubled lender.

So rather than wail in the direction of Dubai, why doesn’t the UK’s enraged establishment take a closer look at why its banks were happy to take risk after risk, ploughing money into a series of ventures that – as with any investment – came with promises of vast returns, but no cast-iron guarantees?

Dubai World is in the process of taking responsibility for its loss-making operations; it’s a process that will be painful, drawn-out, and humbling. So why don’t the UK banks that have so over-exposed themselves take a little responsibility too? They came here to make money – and mountains of it – while ignoring the risks inherent in an emerging economy such as Dubai’s. How’s that for greed?

The Dubai debt story pales in comparison to the global exposure readily accepted by British institutions as they hunted for profits in the good times. At such levels as are at stake in Dubai, international banks’ exposures are easily manageable. They are a drop in the ocean compared to the toxic assets wiped out during the global crisis.

A look at the ticker will tell you that the share price of HSBC has already started to recover, with Barclays and Standard Chartered already recording smaller losses than they did during the previous week. Dubai might have held the headlines this week, but equity markets outside the region have already settled.

Unlike its counterparts in the UK, The New York Times has moved on, and is looking for the next ‘debt bomb’ to explode (its tip is Russia). The Dubai World announcement may have proved a PR problem, but the emirate isn’t the first to have caused ripples in the global economic pond, and it won’t be the last.

It will be interesting to see if the UK press marches on Moscow with quite so much glee as it has stuck the boot into Dubai.
Don?t moan, look closer to home - Politics & Economics - ArabianBusiness.com
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Old 1st Dec 2009, 18:17
  #131 (permalink)  
 
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Credibility suicide

I have been trying to find an appropriate word for credibility suicide.

So much has been written in the media over the last 6 days. Some of it nonsense - Mr Liddle in the Times and Charlie Brooker in the Guardian on one side and on the other side the Crisis, What Crisis local media.

But, wouldn't it be nice if just one person in the Dubai hierarchy could simply say - yes, we could have handled this better....and we will do better next time.

I liked the Economist's line - "In an autocratic regime like Dubai, bad news acquires an extra coating of sugar with each step it takes up the hierarchy."
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Old 2nd Dec 2009, 05:55
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"In an autocratic regime like Dubai, bad news acquires an extra coating of sugar with each step it takes up the hierarchy."
This shows they are good learners. During the past 10 years Dubai only incarnated what the capitalist world was dreaming about. Those who are criticizing today were the firsts to believe in this model, they just don't like today's picture as it's nothing else than their own reflection. Everyone has to pay its share of irresponsibility.
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Old 2nd Dec 2009, 06:19
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Good luck telling an Arab, leave alone a Royal Family member, that he was wrong!!!
( you will be on the next plane out with a few pages missing from your passport!)

Everything in the Logic Free Zone is about saving face!!!
And as you rightfully said the recovery WILL be messy and long fought.

Dubai is, and has been for a long time, in S^&T!! because Abu Dhabi has been bailing them out for a lot longer than the average guy realises.....It has only now come to be big news because they can no longer hide the fact... all the world banks are realing under the pressure of the world economic crisis and can no longer allow the "Fat Cats" to make empy promises of paying $Billions in debt by keeping the oil price low...instead of just paying up!

This is the tip of the Ice burg and the sand castles are going to come crashing down soon!
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Old 2nd Dec 2009, 07:43
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Good luck telling an Arab, leave alone a Royal Family member, that he was wrong!!!
Especially when you were the one guy who advised and encouraged him for years.
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Old 2nd Dec 2009, 10:54
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Quoted from the news wires today "...Sheikh al-Maktoum criticised investors reaction saying "they do not understand anything" & the UAE minister of economy said "the UAE has already taken concerted efforts to meet the challenges arising from the financial crisis". "

On the same wire report "...DUBAI & ABU DHABI BOURSES fell heavily again Tue (ahead of the National Day break), losing 5.6% & 3.5% resp adding to the 7.3-8.3% declines noted Mon as the fall out from the Dubai World repayment 'standstill" persisted...." and "..Dubai's real estate sector fell 9.2% & finance & investment sector lost 7.5% (9.8% & 5.6% in Abu Dhabi resp)..." especially interesing as the bourse has artificial 'chokes' to limit single day losses to 10%.
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Old 2nd Dec 2009, 17:37
  #136 (permalink)  
 
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Anybody wannna buy a few thousand acres of sand in Jebel Ali? Complete with six very long parallel paved strips of land. Dragstrips perhaps? RV/Caravan park (world's largest of course)?

The possibilites are as endless as the sand.
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Old 2nd Dec 2009, 21:08
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this SAND "LAND" is not ours never will be , i think many of us share the fact that we are here as a step on the way,we know it they know it , thats why there is no real Infrastructure Planning ,
No matter what they do to avoid the financial crisis depression nothing will change ,
the laws here should be changed to fit everyone & protect everyone they should think building a real community where everyone share the responsibility & share in the profit as well ,
if they want to present this place as a modern module"the one & only"
a lot has to be changed.
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Old 3rd Dec 2009, 04:40
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if they want to present this place as a modern module"the one & only"
a lot has to be changed.
Do you think Nevada indians are responsible for developing gambling and prostitution in Las Vegas? The economical model that you see in DXB is all but an Emirati cultural product.
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Old 3rd Dec 2009, 07:02
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Saw the following letter in the Mail from Maurice Flanagan.Emirates Airline

I spend a lot of time at Dubai airport and have not seen any abandoned cars- and the Embassy here tells me more British are arriving than leaving. Dubai has many substantial, profitable businesses which,whether or not government owned,operate as unsubsidised,unprotected,private sector enterprises. Dubai hotels and Emirates aircraft are full.

Construction workers here are protected by legislation which serves them better than the truly appalling conditions afflicting thousands of immigrant workers in England.

Its British-curriculum schools are equal to the best in England,its Christian churches flourish,on land given by the Government. In Dubai's malls we will soon see Christmas trees,hear carols and be able to buy Christmas cribs-try that in Birmingham.

Maurice Flanagan


Guess his last paragraph is true certainly.Don't know about the rest as have not been in Dubai for a few years now.
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Old 3rd Dec 2009, 07:07
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The ski run at MoE is importing a Santa Claus from Australia (where it's near 40 degrees at the moment in places).

(Dare I say it, "...as you do.")
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