DEC - Disaster Entry Captain??
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Bird,
'Aviation insurance actuaries are very good and accurate at determining risk levels and thresholds and thereby setting the premiums. Emirates is I daresay "guided" accordingly'
The old insurance chestnut. When Gulf Air had their last accident; Emirates increased the hours for command to 9,000 with people blahring about insurance costs. They changed it to 6,000 2 days later after MF found out the true implications at the pilots meeting. Gulf Air did not increase their hours!
If you check out the stats from the UK database it shows:
1. In over 50% of accidents the Commander had >12,000hrs.
2. In over 60% of accidents the commander had <1250 on type.
So; it seems the insurance angle is 'a pile of pants!' cos anyone carrying out a sound risk analysis can see that taking DECs with over 10,000 hrs but few on type is a recipe for disaster.
Bird don't try to insult our intelligence, it has nothing to do with safety; only money. Those at the top would have been the first to dive for cover had one of the DEC incidents turned out less favourably saying 'how could anyone have seen that coming?'
Cerberus
'Aviation insurance actuaries are very good and accurate at determining risk levels and thresholds and thereby setting the premiums. Emirates is I daresay "guided" accordingly'
The old insurance chestnut. When Gulf Air had their last accident; Emirates increased the hours for command to 9,000 with people blahring about insurance costs. They changed it to 6,000 2 days later after MF found out the true implications at the pilots meeting. Gulf Air did not increase their hours!
If you check out the stats from the UK database it shows:
1. In over 50% of accidents the Commander had >12,000hrs.
2. In over 60% of accidents the commander had <1250 on type.
So; it seems the insurance angle is 'a pile of pants!' cos anyone carrying out a sound risk analysis can see that taking DECs with over 10,000 hrs but few on type is a recipe for disaster.
Bird don't try to insult our intelligence, it has nothing to do with safety; only money. Those at the top would have been the first to dive for cover had one of the DEC incidents turned out less favourably saying 'how could anyone have seen that coming?'
Cerberus
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Gents,
The holes in the cheese are lining up.rather rapidly IMHO.
Irrespective of all "financial" excuses "cost neutral etc etc" and other such mis information,the DEC programme has produced 2 very near disasters in recent months.
If we must take DECs would it not be better to evaluate and determine their abilities,over rather more than 6 sims and 20 LT sectors?Surely full exposure to our network and the way we operate would be beneficial?It might have prevented the latest events.
The product we have in many cases,but not all, is not the product originally asked for,and meanwhile many of our FOs watch in amazement whilst their transition UG eludes them.
What a decision.
QB
The holes in the cheese are lining up.rather rapidly IMHO.
Irrespective of all "financial" excuses "cost neutral etc etc" and other such mis information,the DEC programme has produced 2 very near disasters in recent months.
If we must take DECs would it not be better to evaluate and determine their abilities,over rather more than 6 sims and 20 LT sectors?Surely full exposure to our network and the way we operate would be beneficial?It might have prevented the latest events.
The product we have in many cases,but not all, is not the product originally asked for,and meanwhile many of our FOs watch in amazement whilst their transition UG eludes them.
What a decision.
QB
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Unfortunately Cerberus,
your supposed stats have just proven, at least according to your interpretation, that transition upgrades in Emirates would be just far to risky as thats where the risk is weighted (60%).
And what a spin, so what if 50 % of Commanders had more than 12000 hours then obviously the other 50% had less than 12000 hours that means in 100% of accidents there was a commander....meaningless but good try.
I'd say based on your logic that there was probably less than 1% of pilots with more than 20,000 hours involved in accidents therefore Emirates should only employ pilots with more than 20,000 hours.
Non-specific, selective, generic, limited, out of context statistics are, well, an insult to your notable intelligence.
Besides, it can't be that much cheaper to hire DECs. Their monthly starting salary is significantly higher than a 1st year upgrade's amounting to tens of 1000s of Dhs in the first year alone that the DEC is costing over an upgrade. Emirates has its own training infrastructure with no third party costs. The new F/O has a lower cost base than the upgade F/O. Non revenue time of the upgrader is well less than a month etc etc.........
................... its not all black and white and there is always a lot more to it than we can figure on the surface.
Why are some F/Os and Skippers so paranoid about everything? Lack of experience I guess!
your supposed stats have just proven, at least according to your interpretation, that transition upgrades in Emirates would be just far to risky as thats where the risk is weighted (60%).
And what a spin, so what if 50 % of Commanders had more than 12000 hours then obviously the other 50% had less than 12000 hours that means in 100% of accidents there was a commander....meaningless but good try.
I'd say based on your logic that there was probably less than 1% of pilots with more than 20,000 hours involved in accidents therefore Emirates should only employ pilots with more than 20,000 hours.
Non-specific, selective, generic, limited, out of context statistics are, well, an insult to your notable intelligence.
Besides, it can't be that much cheaper to hire DECs. Their monthly starting salary is significantly higher than a 1st year upgrade's amounting to tens of 1000s of Dhs in the first year alone that the DEC is costing over an upgrade. Emirates has its own training infrastructure with no third party costs. The new F/O has a lower cost base than the upgade F/O. Non revenue time of the upgrader is well less than a month etc etc.........
................... its not all black and white and there is always a lot more to it than we can figure on the surface.
Why are some F/Os and Skippers so paranoid about everything? Lack of experience I guess!
Last edited by Bird On; 14th Aug 2005 at 20:30.
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Bird On-What a load of non sense.
I did a transistion UG along with several others,with no problems encountered by any of the candidates.
No one to the best of my knowledge has been a "risky" upgrade for EK.Further none are/were paranoid.
Cereberus was spot on in his post.
Bottom line is a "paranoid" FO who is known to EK(3 yrs lets say,6 PPCs etc) with even less time than your esteemed self is a considered and known risk.
A DEC irrespective of PIC/TT is UNKNOWN and recent events demonstrate just that.
Now that is risky,IMHO of course.
Off to the bar.QB
I did a transistion UG along with several others,with no problems encountered by any of the candidates.
No one to the best of my knowledge has been a "risky" upgrade for EK.Further none are/were paranoid.
Cereberus was spot on in his post.
Bottom line is a "paranoid" FO who is known to EK(3 yrs lets say,6 PPCs etc) with even less time than your esteemed self is a considered and known risk.
A DEC irrespective of PIC/TT is UNKNOWN and recent events demonstrate just that.
Now that is risky,IMHO of course.
Off to the bar.QB
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Bird On - I have far more than 6000 hrs!! I've also flown many different types in many different environments - YET I still learn. Something we should all be doing 'til the day we retire.. So you can stick your arrogant and conceited comments right up your arse
By the way - maybe a 10 year wait in Oz for a turboprop command, but where else????
By the way - maybe a 10 year wait in Oz for a turboprop command, but where else????
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Does a 10,000hr pilot know more than a 6,000hr pilot? Does a 7,000hr pilot have less experience than a 9,000hr pilot? Do I know more more now than5 years ago,after 3,500hrs in the left seat?
For Gawd's sake, all of you, I am merely pointing out the problems, not suporting them!!!!
For Gawd's sake, all of you, I am merely pointing out the problems, not suporting them!!!!
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So Bird you have surrendered to my point that the insurance actuary statistic angle is 'a pile of pants', I knew I could get you to take that bite. What logic actually says is that a well trained pilot with relevant experience is less of a danger than either a poorly trained one or one with inappropriate experience.
Two typical profiles we see are:
10,000 hours, 6,000jet, 4,000 command short-haul, 0 on type = Qualified DEC
9,000 hours, 5,000jet, 2,000 command short-haul, 2000 on type = Unqualified for Command EK F/O
So 'a non-specific, selective, generic, limited statistic' might be that having 10,000hrs makes a pilot 1,000 "better" than one with 9,000hr. Or that, to otherwise very similarly qualified guys, an extra 2,000 hrs of command is worth more than 2,000 hours on type in the actual operational environment. A well trained pilot with a good decision making model and practice in making those decisons should fare well in any environment. A badly trained pilot with 50,000hrs is still a liability!
So how does all this mumbo jumbo help? It is easier to identify how capable and safe a pilot is by monitoring their performance over a longer period of time in the environment in which they will operate. No point in asking us coz we are all legends in our own lunchtimes. Traditionally this has been done by watching how they develop in the right hand seat. Giving a command to any pilot is a risk. That risk increases if you know less about them.
I am not against DECs to meet a requirement to continue the growth of Emirates. I am against taking inappropriately qualified DECs or taking DECs ahead of 'suitably qualified' F/Os. For the life of me I cannot understand why we are taking none type rated shorthaul guys as DECs when we have guys that were in just about the same position 3 years ago but have since tried to develop their career further by flying for EK. EK would do better by getting rid of arbitary rules and by assessing their staff on merit. Then again, that would require able operational managers with the ability to make sound decisions and self confidence. To do that you have to have relevant experience and with some individuals near the top of the flt ops tree, I fear that may not be the case.
Cerberus
Two typical profiles we see are:
10,000 hours, 6,000jet, 4,000 command short-haul, 0 on type = Qualified DEC
9,000 hours, 5,000jet, 2,000 command short-haul, 2000 on type = Unqualified for Command EK F/O
So 'a non-specific, selective, generic, limited statistic' might be that having 10,000hrs makes a pilot 1,000 "better" than one with 9,000hr. Or that, to otherwise very similarly qualified guys, an extra 2,000 hrs of command is worth more than 2,000 hours on type in the actual operational environment. A well trained pilot with a good decision making model and practice in making those decisons should fare well in any environment. A badly trained pilot with 50,000hrs is still a liability!
So how does all this mumbo jumbo help? It is easier to identify how capable and safe a pilot is by monitoring their performance over a longer period of time in the environment in which they will operate. No point in asking us coz we are all legends in our own lunchtimes. Traditionally this has been done by watching how they develop in the right hand seat. Giving a command to any pilot is a risk. That risk increases if you know less about them.
I am not against DECs to meet a requirement to continue the growth of Emirates. I am against taking inappropriately qualified DECs or taking DECs ahead of 'suitably qualified' F/Os. For the life of me I cannot understand why we are taking none type rated shorthaul guys as DECs when we have guys that were in just about the same position 3 years ago but have since tried to develop their career further by flying for EK. EK would do better by getting rid of arbitary rules and by assessing their staff on merit. Then again, that would require able operational managers with the ability to make sound decisions and self confidence. To do that you have to have relevant experience and with some individuals near the top of the flt ops tree, I fear that may not be the case.
Cerberus
Last edited by Cerberus; 15th Aug 2005 at 03:55.
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what about the jnb incident, the 9" zrh-float, the stealth penetration of mastricht airspace??
made by genuine pure breed ek captains.
come on guys. **** can happen to anyone, even to 3+ year old ek fo's.
let's try to avoid these incidents before pointing fingers.
the really safe pros go for the earlier and avoid the latter.
safe flights
ttn
made by genuine pure breed ek captains.
come on guys. **** can happen to anyone, even to 3+ year old ek fo's.
let's try to avoid these incidents before pointing fingers.
the really safe pros go for the earlier and avoid the latter.
safe flights
ttn
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Funny thing is there will not be many f/os left in EK next year. 100s are leaving it is really quite incredible what has happened to a potentially great airline....
Where r they going to park all those 777s the 330 guys are not allowed to fly.
Shame really.
Lots of Decs to come next year but for every 1 that comes about 2 F/Os will leave , good effort !
Figures from the latest poll put out to F/Os only , i would imagine many Captains are on the move also ............
Where r they going to park all those 777s the 330 guys are not allowed to fly.
Shame really.
Lots of Decs to come next year but for every 1 that comes about 2 F/Os will leave , good effort !
Figures from the latest poll put out to F/Os only , i would imagine many Captains are on the move also ............
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Personally I believe most of the incidents could have been avoided had the crew of the day recognised the Threats and discussed how they would have Managed them.
Most of the time we waste energy on long briefings which don't really discuss the Threats faced for the particular Approach and Landing or Takeoff.
EBB-NBO
There's a co-notam with regard to avoiding high sink rates so as NOT to trigger the EGPWS. Most people don't understand that the EGPWS works like the TCAS - forecasting the closure rate based on ROD/ROC or Gnd speed.
Crew can discuss this and place a speed restriction (Green dot or Flaps up Maneuver) and altitude restriction at a point prior to the LOC intercept when approaching from the West.
DXB 12R
Discussion of the threat facing the crew would mean that both pilots are more conscious of the prevailing runway length and what the best way of managing it would be.
There's already a company write-up to this effect advising that Flap 20 or a Conf 3/2 would result. Any other flap setting or config would ring alarm bells.
Practised by DEC or non DEC would have yielded the same outcome - no EGPWS warning and also less dramatic takeoff.
Just my 2 sen worth.
Most of the time we waste energy on long briefings which don't really discuss the Threats faced for the particular Approach and Landing or Takeoff.
EBB-NBO
There's a co-notam with regard to avoiding high sink rates so as NOT to trigger the EGPWS. Most people don't understand that the EGPWS works like the TCAS - forecasting the closure rate based on ROD/ROC or Gnd speed.
Crew can discuss this and place a speed restriction (Green dot or Flaps up Maneuver) and altitude restriction at a point prior to the LOC intercept when approaching from the West.
DXB 12R
Discussion of the threat facing the crew would mean that both pilots are more conscious of the prevailing runway length and what the best way of managing it would be.
There's already a company write-up to this effect advising that Flap 20 or a Conf 3/2 would result. Any other flap setting or config would ring alarm bells.
Practised by DEC or non DEC would have yielded the same outcome - no EGPWS warning and also less dramatic takeoff.
Just my 2 sen worth.
Last edited by Marcellus Wallace; 17th Aug 2005 at 02:24.
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Turtleneck
Great reply. Come on, fact is EK is expanding faster than the pilots they have. It's much cheaper to hire a type-rated pilot, whether F/O or DEC. No, it's not fair to Guys, that have shown loyalty, but they have to crew the aircraft. Surely, it's the same for any proper airline. It's the usual story, be there at the right time. I don't fly for EK, but if I applied and was offered a DEC, I would take it, I think. The F/O position wouldn't even enter the equation, even though, I feel sorry for your circumstances. It's not fair, but that is the way it goes.
Great reply. Come on, fact is EK is expanding faster than the pilots they have. It's much cheaper to hire a type-rated pilot, whether F/O or DEC. No, it's not fair to Guys, that have shown loyalty, but they have to crew the aircraft. Surely, it's the same for any proper airline. It's the usual story, be there at the right time. I don't fly for EK, but if I applied and was offered a DEC, I would take it, I think. The F/O position wouldn't even enter the equation, even though, I feel sorry for your circumstances. It's not fair, but that is the way it goes.
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tic,
Agree with what you're saying. In case of a rapid expansion, sometimes a company NEEDS to hire type-rated DEC's.
At EK however, no such thing is happening. The expansion is big, but nothing that would need the help of DEC's. Last years DEC's for the sudden A343's might have been needed, but then again, most of them were not type rated and had to do a long transition course. Know of at least 2 B777 rated guys who had to join the A330 fleet while only a few weeks after, some not rated B777 guys were trained on a long transition. Know of a guy who never flew passengers or glass cockpit (the guy only flew cargo DC8 and 747 Classic.. hell, he even never operated in a 2-men flightdeck!!!!!! ) So please someone tell me what these guys are doing here???
MR8
Agree with what you're saying. In case of a rapid expansion, sometimes a company NEEDS to hire type-rated DEC's.
At EK however, no such thing is happening. The expansion is big, but nothing that would need the help of DEC's. Last years DEC's for the sudden A343's might have been needed, but then again, most of them were not type rated and had to do a long transition course. Know of at least 2 B777 rated guys who had to join the A330 fleet while only a few weeks after, some not rated B777 guys were trained on a long transition. Know of a guy who never flew passengers or glass cockpit (the guy only flew cargo DC8 and 747 Classic.. hell, he even never operated in a 2-men flightdeck!!!!!! ) So please someone tell me what these guys are doing here???
MR8
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Sadly for you, LHR Rain, you ain't figured it out yet.
Clearly, EK management have had enough of pig-headed co-pilots, who truly believe that they belong in the LHS, yet display no maturity or ability to reinforce the fact.
The guys who jump up and down the most about being denied the LHS are usually the ones least able to cope with the job, once there.
Live and learn, eh?
Clearly, EK management have had enough of pig-headed co-pilots, who truly believe that they belong in the LHS, yet display no maturity or ability to reinforce the fact.
The guys who jump up and down the most about being denied the LHS are usually the ones least able to cope with the job, once there.
Live and learn, eh?
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You for one Global Nomad seem to lead this elite group of "Pig Headed Co-Pilots"everywhere.Take a break bubba.Or it'll show in your next medical...!!
