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Pilot shortage 2021

Old 10th Nov 2020, 08:32
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Pilot shortage 2021

Pilot shortage, 27000 pilots needed by 2021 and not enough available
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Old 10th Nov 2020, 09:06
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PPRuNe Handmaiden
 
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Was that the recent announcement by CAE, a well known training provider? Now I wonder why they'd be saying that?
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Old 10th Nov 2020, 09:17
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It seems that living in total denial (I'M NOT LISTENING!) is all the rage at the moment. Perhaps the management at CAE need a round of golf to clear their heads.
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Old 10th Nov 2020, 09:25
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It's gonna be HUGE
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Old 10th Nov 2020, 09:49
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Eurocontrol's view on the matter.
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Old 10th Nov 2020, 09:57
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If you are a prospective CAE student then before reading their article fill a bathtub with half a tonne of salt, climb in and then read it.
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Old 10th Nov 2020, 10:56
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Information sources are wildly varied. Airlines are laying off and schools have seen increase in students, so what's actually going on where you are? Specifics, numbers.

Our Airline is hardly flying and yet no layoffs or plans to. And they have recruited pilots during the last 6 months and sent on training.

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Old 10th Nov 2020, 12:04
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Pilot shortage lol
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Old 10th Nov 2020, 12:23
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Whilst it seems that the sources for these large recruitment forecasts are perhaps skewed, the vaccine is coming and by next year. And to think that the public by and large will not travel again would be equally skewed. Any airline surviving this will (next year IMHO) require a large recruitment drive to cope with the demand that will inevitably be needed and the large layoffs now will be assumed as a viable source to cover this. The problem? a good percentage will have taken early retirement, many will be loathed to return to such a volatile industry, having retrained and upskilled in other industries. The perception that the training industry has cadets clamouring is definitely not true despite the colourful advertising stating the time is now to invest in an fATPL, and understandably so as finance for such is not on offer from mum and dad, or banks. I would suggest the training providers will be the sector to suffer greater losses moving forward, and the LCC cadet-reliant business models to be coming to an end in any meaningful way that allows their (LCC) expansion at rates Pre-COVID. There will be a skilled pilot shortage but not at the levels forecast I would offer.
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Old 10th Nov 2020, 12:29
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Originally Posted by OutsideCAS View Post
a good percentage will have taken early retirement, many will be loathed to return to such a volatile industry, having retrained and upskilled in other industries.
I'm really curious as to the percentage of currently redundant pilots who will be actively seeking to get back into the industry in a couple of years...
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Old 10th Nov 2020, 12:33
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Short term, maybe 50-60% from talks with many from varied operators. That may change of course in future years as the terms and conditions improve(?). If not, maybe less. It is an interesting topic dns I agree.
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Old 10th Nov 2020, 14:23
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From my own observations, roughly one in three redundant pilots will not or is unlikely to come back whenever hiring picks up. Those who have already earned their pension and are financially secure are discovering the beauty of finally having plenty of time and energy for themselves and their loved ones. Once one gets well into their 50s, lifestyle preferences tend to change a lot. People are no longer keen on being awake and working at silly o'clock or living in hotels for weeks on end. As for the younger lot, a good number of them use this an opportunity to permanently change careers. Particularly the ones who weren't quite happy with their job pre-COVID and were considering a career change way before the crisis. That's been their final trigger to act.
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Old 10th Nov 2020, 14:49
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Originally Posted by PilotLZ View Post
From my own observations, roughly one in three redundant pilots will not or is unlikely to come back whenever hiring picks up..
One in three? How many redundant pilots have you observed?
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Old 10th Nov 2020, 15:25
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Utter rubbish. The european body of pilots is actually relatively young. There is no looming retirement wave in Europe (like there is in the USA). Having spanked £100k-ish on flight training, and having discovered first hand how little our experience is valued by HR/recruiters in other fields, those sadly made redundant are clamouring to get back into the cockpit in my experience. Only a tiny number will start again in other fields. Flying is the only way to make a half-decent living and to pay off astronomical training debts.

As for older pilots retiring early, very few can afford to do that and I have seem little evidence to suggest it. At BA only a handful took early retirement despite a VR package being offered.

CAE obviously want to keep spinning the pilot shortage myth as they stand to profit from all the training, that is their business. Where I work we have no recruitment plans whatsover on any time frame. There is no demand and no one knows just how long it will be until pilots are in demand again, but it will be measured
in years not months.
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Old 10th Nov 2020, 16:25
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Chief Willy is correct. Aside from the odd retiree, most typed pilots are biding their time and will return. Career opportunities have not opened up for pilots, for two simple reasons. Covid-19, and the inevitability that pilots will return to flying as soon as the opportunities present themselves. It may be a few months yet, but hopefully aviation will return next year.
Sadly T & C's will not be on a par with 2019/2020 figures, and probably never will be.
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Old 10th Nov 2020, 17:01
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I suggest people read and re-read Chief Willy's post. It is spot on.

The vast majority of redundant pilots will be waiting for the first opportunity to get back flying. Yes, they may not enjoy the job, they may look at the direction the industry is going in and wince, they may be looking at a 50%+ paycut compared to their last flying job in 2019, but they will accept any conditions going.

Unless you have relevant qualifications AND significant experience in another field, you shouldn't kid yourself that any HR/ recruitment person is going to be in the slightest bit interested by what you think you can offer. As much as pilots want to think differently, nobody cares about the "transferable skills" we like to kid ourselves that we have. Many will probably have already seen that recruitment is dominated by faceless, automated systems employing standardised online filters. It's highly likely that your application will be filtered out before it's even looked at by an actual person.

I actually think that there will be continued demand for "cadets" who will be unpaid, or will pay to fly. Why wouldn't the airlines continue to profit from the right hand seat? There may well be limited recruitment of experienced pilots with a relevant rating at the airlines who emerge from this crisis. It would be an extraordinary act of self delusion to think that the salaries offered will bear any comparison with those previously offered, and as mentioned above by a previous poster those terms and conditions are gone forever.
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Old 10th Nov 2020, 17:08
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The vast majority of redundant pilots will be waiting for the first opportunity to get back flying.
from general conversation, seemingly not this time. Many have actually used their redundancy packages to fund a new vocation, skill set. Building trade seems to feature heavily for some reason.

Yes, there will of course be Cadets that will slot in to the RHS for nothing, or next to. But enough in the interim to satisfy the bigger LCC, a blue and yellow one springs to mind - I think not. The numbers will not sustain future expansion plans in the short to medium term. The salaries for experienced or not will be dire for some time, agreed. This is what is heavily driving the thinking currently I would suggest.
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Old 10th Nov 2020, 18:36
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I think there could possibly be a shortage of experienced Captain in the next two years. The Middle Eastern carriers have made very deep Pilot cuts and Iím pretty sure once demand picks up, which it will, and covid is a distant memory these Middle Eastern carriers will be desperate for Pilots. I feel many wonít return due to retirement and the treatment they have received during the covid crisis. The only realistic way to entice pilots will be to pay astronomical amounts of money. This in my view will create a shortage of high hour Captains in Europe. Itís always supply and demand that dictates salaries, not HR.
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Old 10th Nov 2020, 19:23
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Yes, always read who is saying the message, CAE, they arent going to call it like it is.

BALPA said over 1,000 experienced pilots unemployed currently in the UK and around 15,000 in Europe now. That is enough for a several years recruitment even a heavy demand if it does springs back.

What people havent yet realised is that big companies are getting rid of floors of their offices and indeed their whole offices, one major bank closed down an office for 2,700 people and made them all homeworkers!! As people can be home based saving company time and money, big studies in IT showing that home workers are more productive as dont waste time travelling and for those a bit older with families etc, they prefer it. Alan Sugar was complaining that people were working from home too much, now that Zoom, MS Teams working is normal, business travel will never be the same again, it has decreased for ever! There is not a need for a large amount of people to travel regularly for work, some business travel will happen but also people realise that Zoom etc can also be used for social gatherings so that is likely to decrease some leisure travel.

Save your money and do something else with your time, only once has their been an actual pilot shortage, it was during WW2!
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Old 10th Nov 2020, 20:10
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Sorry I disagree, and so does Amazon by the looks of it. If I was a betting man I’d put my money on Amazon all day long. All this ‘work from home’ is a fad.
https://www.thestreet.com/.amp/techn...avirus-virtual

Passenger numbers will be back to pre Covid levels within two years and it will double in size every 7 years like it has done since World war 2. New airlines will pop up all over the place. One start up airline has just bought some of BA’s 747’s during a pandemic. As for the ‘staycation’...a wet week in Bognor Regis or fly to Malaga for a fiver in the sun? I know which one I’d choose.😏
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