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Coronavirus employment low on its way?

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Coronavirus employment low on its way?

Old 4th Mar 2020, 14:44
  #1 (permalink)  
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Mar 2020
Location: United Kingdom
Posts: 4
Coronavirus employment low on its way?

Hi all,

This is my first post here but I have been reading PPRuNe for a while now.

I'm currently in the middle of my ATPLs and due to finish them in May and thereafter my CPL MEIR in October.

Definitely starting to get apprehensive about how the employment situation is developing. I am seeing airlines such as Flybe struggling and Lufthansa grounding aircraft because of the lack of recent bookings due to the Covid-19 scare. Brexit uncertainty isn't helping and no one knows when the 737 Max is returning to service!

I guess I am simply looking for opinions on the situation. Do you think it is a good idea to start my CPL MEIR this year (June)? Or finish off my ATPLs and leave the remainder of my training until the outlook has become less bleak? I am hesitant to delay my training as I am in a good situation financially and personally at the moment.

Thanks!
jordon1703 is offline  
Old 5th Mar 2020, 05:19
  #2 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Spain
Age: 40
Posts: 33
No one has a crystal ball, but considering the sheer volume of unemployed pilots out there today due to TCX and now Flybe, with the risk of other airlines going bust, and almost no hiring at any airline, I cannot think of a worse time since 2008 to be completing my training. Delaying it as much as possible would be my plan, personally. Hopefully this will blow over by winter and hiring will pick up again then. Good luck.
Chief Willy is offline  
Old 7th Mar 2020, 23:16
  #3 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: A Gaelic Country
Posts: 0
I'd agree with Chief Willy.

Covid-19. Monarch. T Cook. Flybe.

UK to leave EASA??? So what exams to take? Licences to apply for?

Logan taking only Flybe staff or ATR rated crew.
covec is offline  
Old 8th Mar 2020, 11:15
  #4 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 1999
Location: Domaine de la Romanee-Conti
Posts: 1,678
I would hold off until the situation becomes clearer

In addition to the previous mentioned Thomas Cook and Flybe guys, there are a lot of very very experienced captains who have basically been fired from their Chinese jobs last month, who will be snapping up anything that's available at home

There is a very high chance that some very well established airlines in Hong Kong, who employ a load of western expats, will be making massive redundancies if this situation is ongoing in a few weeks' time. They'll all be coming home looking for jobs

There are several European airlines in very dodgy financial positions who won't survive for long without massive bailouts. The Italian government has just put Milan in full lockdown

There is a small but not zero chance that the big Gulf airlines will also make redundancies

Think like the airlines themselves ... in times like this, preservation of your cash is key. Don't take on unnecessary debt unless you're absolutely sure you will end up in a better position as a consequence.
Luke SkyToddler is offline  
Old 8th Mar 2020, 15:18
  #5 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: UK
Posts: 224
Hi jordon1703,

I think that's worth baring in mind is there is never a good time to start flight training, only a good time to finish it. Several analysts reckon the flying will be back to normal in a few months with the initial outbreak set to curb. How accurate they are, who knows?! But like many of the others say on this forum in many posts of late, if you're a Brit in flight training there has not been a situation as bleak as this in a long while. I was lucky, I landed a job during the initial slow down in recruitment back in 2018 but unlike several threats before it, Covid-19 is actually grounding and preventing airlines flying. As of today Italy is even locking down it's cities. If you're a modular trainee perhaps delay your CPL/ME/IR a while to save yourself unnecessary expense. I know it's painful to hear, but you'd want the best prospects out of the other end.

Take the lowest risk.

All the best,
gbotley is offline  
Old 8th Mar 2020, 18:08
  #6 (permalink)  
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Join Date: Mar 2020
Location: United Kingdom
Posts: 4
Originally Posted by gbotley View Post
Hi jordon1703,

I think that's worth baring in mind is there is never a good time to start flight training, only a good time to finish it. Several analysts reckon the flying will be back to normal in a few months with the initial outbreak set to curb. How accurate they are, who knows?! But like many of the others say on this forum in many posts of late, if you're a Brit in flight training there has not been a situation as bleak as this in a long while.

I was lucky, I landed a job during the initial slow down in recruitment back in 2018 but unlike several threats before it, Covid-19 is actually grounding and preventing airlines flying. As of today Italy is even locking down it's cities. If you're a modular trainee perhaps delay your CPL/ME/IR a while to save yourself unnecessary expense. I know it's painful to hear, but you'd want the best prospects out of the other end.

Take the lowest risk.

All the best,
Hi gbotley,

I am aware of just how up in the air the whole situation is right now, or rather not.

I am a modular student but I wonder if there is any real point in delaying my training until a later date; after all, that would be wasted time where I could be potentially looking for a job. I may be missing something however, is there more to it than just keeping my ratings valid and current?

Thanks
jordon1703 is offline  
Old 8th Mar 2020, 21:19
  #7 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Location: Spain
Posts: 52
Snoop

Whether to start now or later has always been a concern but to start now is asking for trouble. - loads from China laid off , flybe guys with no jobs plus many still hanging from tcx- Aer Lingus, BA and there’s all cutting back - no one is recruiting - loads of mpl guys from cityfler being delayed and off loaded from flybe ...... plus Brexit and it’s consequences mean EU is no option soon ....... it will take years to recover even if this clears to make up for the shortfalls currently being taken on. I would say hold off until clear

if anyone wants to do a type and wait is deluded
nightfright is offline  
Old 8th Mar 2020, 21:24
  #8 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Geneva, Switzerland
Age: 54
Posts: 1,617
I'd say that for all the reasons mentioned earlier you might find excellent value in the training market 6-12 months from now...
atakacs is offline  
Old 9th Mar 2020, 03:51
  #9 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2001
Location: England
Posts: 1,823
As a wannabe of two recessions (2001/2002 and then 2008/2009), my advice would be to complete your training ASAP (I don't think you'll get much of a discount as fuel and instructor wages are not going to change). Avoid integrated, because the job connections won't be there for a while anyway. Save your cash and go Modular. The reason I say start and finish ASAP is because you need a clear year or two to go back to your previous jobs and earn some good money. Money that can then be used to ride the next wave of low-experienced pilot recruitment in early 2022 (if nothing else happens to the world!). You're definitely paying for a type rating and dare I say it, likely hours too. That's the reality you need to accept going forward.
Superpilot is offline  
Old 9th Mar 2020, 09:35
  #10 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Location: UK
Posts: 0
Money that can then be used to ride the next wave of low-experienced pilot recruitment in early 2022
Expecting any recruitment by 2022 seems incredibly optimistic to me.

Even as a captain in (supposedly) one of the most secure airlines in the UK, I think the chances are no better than 50/50 that I'll have a job in six months time. I'm preparing for life outside the industry because I can't see any prospect of things picking up for at least the next five years, probably longer. We could easily be looking at a decade or more of serious contraction in the industry. Mass redundancies, no hiring.

You'd have to be mad to contemplate training now.
flocci_non_faccio is offline  
Old 9th Mar 2020, 15:45
  #11 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: Mars
Posts: 52
I would not blame too much the Coronavirus, how many airlines failed with Sars, how many with mad cows and so on.
Of course it has a negative impact on the flights, turism, etc, but now it seems too much.
For example, Flybe announced a big crysis when I was doing my training back in the 2018.
Hogos is offline  
Old 9th Mar 2020, 17:08
  #12 (permalink)  
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Mar 2020
Location: United Kingdom
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Originally Posted by Hogos View Post
I would not blame too much the Coronavirus, how many airlines failed with Sars, how many with mad cows and so on.
Of course it has a negative impact on the flights, turism, etc, but now it seems too much.
For example, Flybe announced a big crysis when I was doing my training back in the 2018.
So you think that this is something that is potentially going to pass us by?

ps: My replies are quite delayed as moderators are having to approve my comments.
jordon1703 is offline  
Old 10th Mar 2020, 01:19
  #13 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: UK
Posts: 849
Originally Posted by flocci_non_faccio View Post
Expecting any recruitment by 2022 seems incredibly optimistic to me.

Even as a captain in (supposedly) one of the most secure airlines in the UK, I think the chances are no better than 50/50 that I'll have a job in six months time. I'm preparing for life outside the industry because I can't see any prospect of things picking up for at least the next five years, probably longer. We could easily be looking at a decade or more of serious contraction in the industry. Mass redundancies, no hiring.

You'd have to be mad to contemplate training now.
Whilst I think 50/50 is slightly pessimistic, as another captain with a good TR in what I imagine is the same secure airline as yourself, I really do share your concern. If anyone in my company thinks their job isecurity is under no doubt at the moment then they are quite frankly wrong. If you asked me whether Italy would be under quarantine so soon a month ago, i would have said it's very unlikely but I wouldn't have bet it wasn't going to happen, now, hwo knows?!I've never seen anything as economically destabilising as this in my life. Recessions happen (like 2008 or 2001), but this really has the potential to just stop the world from turning for a long period of time. Most airlines have been rapidly expanding in the last few years which has left many, if not all in a very precarious position. My airline keeps telling me that they are able to retract and delay aircraft deliveries, or get rid of current ones, although does that mean hand back to the lessor or sell? We own a large portition of our older ones - what will their value be?!

Anyone about to embark in either intergrated or modular training right now with this level of uncertainty is a very foolish move.
giggitygiggity is online now  
Old 10th Mar 2020, 17:16
  #14 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Home
Posts: 49
Delay, delay, delay... Money in the bank and all that... If you're having to ask the question, you already know the answer - no matter how difficult that may be to accept.
richardthethird is offline  
Old 14th Mar 2020, 17:58
  #15 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: EU
Posts: 34
Don’t forget you have to get your flight training completed within 3 years of passing your first exam.

My advice if you’re thinking of delaying...

From the date you passed your first exam you have 18 months to finish all of them so study for your ATPL’s as normal and take them in May but leave the easiest left exam out.

Take that exam on the 16th month from passing your first (just in case you need to retake)

Then you’ve got the maximum time available to do the CPL/ME/IR if you need to delay

i did the exact same thing but for financial reasons.

if you’re thinking “I’ll just get it done” be very cautious because when you’re 2-3 IR Renewals in, it gets harder to get a job when you’re competing with people fresh out of training.

At the end of the day it’s a gamble whatever you choose but good luck !
TRENT210 is offline  
Old 16th Mar 2020, 04:20
  #16 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: Transient
Posts: 7
A typical day in the office would start ridiculously early, after poor quality sleep, in a strange bed / hotel room which is paid from a low salary.

"Aww bless"

The captain arrives and spends the first 10 minutes using body language / verbals which create a clear hierarchy for further interaction that day (notable exceptions here, some people have excellent emotional intelligence).

" The Captain meets someone looking like a sack of spuds who doesn't want to be there, cannot download the flight paperwork and is more interested in finishing reading some social media garbage on the latest icock phone".

You will spend the bulk of the day listening to war stories which typically involve superior crosswind landing skills, on his part, and you will learn the failings of all other FO’s at your base. As you approach ToD you try to brief the skipper who doesn’t really care what you say, as the descent, approach and landing will be done his way anyway. Unless you balls it up, at which point it is made clear that you did it your way.

" You will spend the bulk of your day monitoring and mitigating the non performance of a pre Madonna with 2 to 3 years of inexperience who cannot accept advice and who sulks when not given the attention they think is their due. Their self esteem is damaged when no praise is forthcoming for just doing their job".

At the end of the day you can turn your phone back on to find that your friends / family have been out for walks, to the pub and played cricket in the sun, as it’s Saturday. Thankfully your time with his highness has now finished so you download your roster to find out which exciting destination awaits you next.

​"​​​​At the end of each sector rather than prepping for the next takeoff in 25 minutes our hero has his face buried in his icock phone whilst thumb typing drivel and sending trout lip selfies to Instagram highlighting his success in life".

Just holding up the mirror the 1917.

Douglas Bahada is offline  
Old 16th Mar 2020, 18:52
  #17 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: Mars
Posts: 18
Originally Posted by the1917 View Post
Hi jordon1703

I actually think you’re in a very fortunate position. Your situation sounds similar to mine in 2017/18 but I was ‘unlucky’ enough to have completed my ATPL’s, MEIR, CPL, APS MCC, TR, line training and a summer on the line for TCX before it disappeared. The net result for me was a huge financial reduction to my personal balance sheet for very little enjoyment or satisfaction.

This may come across as overly negative but a realistic view is often lacking in flight training circles. Granted everybody is different but from my own experience I would say that you’re currently at the most enjoyable stage of the ‘career’. After this point the game becomes very expensive and comes with significant sacrifices for your time, money and sanity.

The job of a low hour FO may be great for some, but I speak from experience when I say it is close to being a nightmare for others - myself included. A typical day in the office would start ridiculously early, after poor quality sleep, in a strange bed / hotel room which is paid from a low salary.

Due to the logistics of the job it is very difficult to be nutritious so processed food is the norm. Check-in is done in the most sterile of environments at the crew room. The captain arrives and spends the first 10 minutes using body language / verbals which create a clear hierarchy for further interaction that day (notable exceptions here, some people have excellent emotional intelligence).

Quickly down to the stand, walking at least half a metre behind said captain, to then spend the next 12 hours locked in a wardrobe with the bloke who’s always right about everything 100% of the time, even when he’s wrong. More processed food, dehydration and boredom follow. The captain will fart at regular intervals as he’s the boss, but you dare not.

You will spend the bulk of the day listening to war stories which typically involve superior crosswind landing skills, on his part, and you will learn the failings of all other FO’s at your base. As you approach ToD you try to brief the skipper who doesn’t really care what you say, as the descent, approach and landing will be done his way anyway. Unless you balls it up, at which point it is made clear that you did it your way.

The views are sometimes nice (a positive) but the general pressure of the job balances these pleasureable nano-seconds. At the end of the day you can turn your phone back on to find that your friends / family have been out for walks, to the pub and played cricket in the sun, as it’s Saturday. Thankfully your time with his highness has now finished so you download your roster to find out which exciting destination awaits you next. Unfortunately you’ve been called off standby to repeat today’s events tomorrow with your mate from today. Never mind a cold beer and a walk in the park will do the trick - but you need a clear head and early night so decide a microwave meal and bed would be wiser.

You will no doubt sense my cynicism at this stage! I’d like to say that a lot of this has been exaggerated to make the points, but no. The feeling during flight training was always ‘it will be OK when the next stage is done’. This doesn’t stop in the role, as every FO is ‘doing their time’ for command etc.

I would like to be fair in this assessment, as I do not love aviation like many do, nor was I blessed with particularly good hand flying skills or confidence in my own physical coordination in the cockpit. Another pilot will invariably see things through very different eyes.

Your current position of strength is a good thing imo. If the industry contracts I feel very sorry for many people, including low hour pilots who have grafted and sacrificed so much to be there. Whilst many more experienced pilots believe that low hour guys are incompetent imposters, I believe that you people often have the bottle and resilience to cope with a changing world of work. If you do nothing more than complete your ATPL’s you have been one of the lucky ones. A PPL, night rating and a long academic course are all great experiences and these will be diluted if you sink more time and money into ‘achieving’ the dream.

Maybe the market for new entrants will freeze for the short term, or for the long term, who knows. This would do you a massive favour.
The best personality for a pilot

if you believe in the big man in the sky who has a place for good people and a bad place for bad people

without question

your in the right industry.
Mrpeewee is offline  
Old 16th Mar 2020, 21:43
  #18 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Birmingham
Posts: 87
Originally Posted by Douglas Bahada View Post
A typical day in the office would start ridiculously early, after poor quality sleep, in a strange bed / hotel room which is paid from a low salary.

"Aww bless"

The captain arrives and spends the first 10 minutes using body language / verbals which create a clear hierarchy for further interaction that day (notable exceptions here, some people have excellent emotional intelligence).

" The Captain meets someone looking like a sack of spuds who doesn't want to be there, cannot download the flight paperwork and is more interested in finishing reading some social media garbage on the latest icock phone".

You will spend the bulk of the day listening to war stories which typically involve superior crosswind landing skills, on his part, and you will learn the failings of all other FO’s at your base. As you approach ToD you try to brief the skipper who doesn’t really care what you say, as the descent, approach and landing will be done his way anyway. Unless you balls it up, at which point it is made clear that you did it your way.

" You will spend the bulk of your day monitoring and mitigating the non performance of a pre Madonna with 2 to 3 years of inexperience who cannot accept advice and who sulks when not given the attention they think is their due. Their self esteem is damaged when no praise is forthcoming for just doing their job".

At the end of the day you can turn your phone back on to find that your friends / family have been out for walks, to the pub and played cricket in the sun, as it’s Saturday. Thankfully your time with his highness has now finished so you download your roster to find out which exciting destination awaits you next.

​"​​​​At the end of each sector rather than prepping for the next takeoff in 25 minutes our hero has his face buried in his icock phone whilst thumb typing drivel and sending trout lip selfies to Instagram highlighting his success in life".

Just holding up the mirror the 1917.

Having been in the Airline industry for almost 4 years (Just been made redundant as the big regional airline failed) and 10 years in another industry, I can tell you there are good and bad in both seats.
Bloated Stomach is offline  
Old 16th Mar 2020, 22:32
  #19 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Amantido
Posts: 438
Originally Posted by the1917 View Post
Hi jordon1703

I actually think you’re in a very fortunate position. Your situation sounds similar to mine in 2017/18 but I was ‘unlucky’ enough to have completed my ATPL’s, MEIR, CPL, APS MCC, TR, line training and a summer on the line for TCX before it disappeared. The net result for me was a huge financial reduction to my personal balance sheet for very little enjoyment or satisfaction.

This may come across as overly negative but a realistic view is often lacking in flight training circles. Granted everybody is different but from my own experience I would say that you’re currently at the most enjoyable stage of the ‘career’. After this point the game becomes very expensive and comes with significant sacrifices for your time, money and sanity.

The job of a low hour FO may be great for some, but I speak from experience when I say it is close to being a nightmare for others - myself included. A typical day in the office would start ridiculously early, after poor quality sleep, in a strange bed / hotel room which is paid from a low salary.

Due to the logistics of the job it is very difficult to be nutritious so processed food is the norm. Check-in is done in the most sterile of environments at the crew room. The captain arrives and spends the first 10 minutes using body language / verbals which create a clear hierarchy for further interaction that day (notable exceptions here, some people have excellent emotional intelligence).

Quickly down to the stand, walking at least half a metre behind said captain, to then spend the next 12 hours locked in a wardrobe with the bloke who’s always right about everything 100% of the time, even when he’s wrong. More processed food, dehydration and boredom follow. The captain will fart at regular intervals as he’s the boss, but you dare not.

You will spend the bulk of the day listening to war stories which typically involve superior crosswind landing skills, on his part, and you will learn the failings of all other FO’s at your base. As you approach ToD you try to brief the skipper who doesn’t really care what you say, as the descent, approach and landing will be done his way anyway. Unless you balls it up, at which point it is made clear that you did it your way.

The views are sometimes nice (a positive) but the general pressure of the job balances these pleasureable nano-seconds. At the end of the day you can turn your phone back on to find that your friends / family have been out for walks, to the pub and played cricket in the sun, as it’s Saturday. Thankfully your time with his highness has now finished so you download your roster to find out which exciting destination awaits you next. Unfortunately you’ve been called off standby to repeat today’s events tomorrow with your mate from today. Never mind a cold beer and a walk in the park will do the trick - but you need a clear head and early night so decide a microwave meal and bed would be wiser.

You will no doubt sense my cynicism at this stage! I’d like to say that a lot of this has been exaggerated to make the points, but no. The feeling during flight training was always ‘it will be OK when the next stage is done’. This doesn’t stop in the role, as every FO is ‘doing their time’ for command etc.

I would like to be fair in this assessment, as I do not love aviation like many do, nor was I blessed with particularly good hand flying skills or confidence in my own physical coordination in the cockpit. Another pilot will invariably see things through very different eyes.

Your current position of strength is a good thing imo. If the industry contracts I feel very sorry for many people, including low hour pilots who have grafted and sacrificed so much to be there. Whilst many more experienced pilots believe that low hour guys are incompetent imposters, I believe that you people often have the bottle and resilience to cope with a changing world of work. If you do nothing more than complete your ATPL’s you have been one of the lucky ones. A PPL, night rating and a long academic course are all great experiences and these will be diluted if you sink more time and money into ‘achieving’ the dream.

Maybe the market for new entrants will freeze for the short term, or for the long term, who knows. This would do you a massive favour.
You've come across some bad captains...
Banana Joe is online now  
Old 17th Mar 2020, 04:46
  #20 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: earth
Posts: 493
Seems like a bad FO to me.
ford cortina is offline  

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