Originally Posted by
flocci_non_faccio
Expecting any recruitment by 2022 seems incredibly optimistic to me.
Even as a captain in (supposedly) one of the most secure airlines in the UK, I think the chances are no better than 50/50 that I'll have a job in six months time. I'm preparing for life outside the industry because I can't see any prospect of things picking up for at least the next five years, probably longer. We could easily be looking at a decade or more of serious contraction in the industry. Mass redundancies, no hiring.
You'd have to be mad to contemplate training now.
Whilst I think 50/50 is slightly pessimistic, as another captain with a good TR in what I imagine is the same secure airline as yourself, I really do share your concern. If anyone in my company thinks their job isecurity is under no doubt at the moment then they are quite frankly wrong. If you asked me whether Italy would be under quarantine so soon a month ago, i would have said it's very unlikely but I wouldn't have bet it wasn't going to happen, now, hwo knows?!I've never seen anything as economically destabilising as this in my life. Recessions happen (like 2008 or 2001), but this really has the potential to just stop the world from turning for a long period of time. Most airlines have been rapidly expanding in the last few years which has left many, if not all in a very precarious position. My airline keeps telling me that they are able to retract and delay aircraft deliveries, or get rid of current ones, although does that mean hand back to the lessor or sell? We own a large portition of our older ones - what will their value be?!
Anyone about to embark in either intergrated or modular training right now with this level of uncertainty is a very foolish move.