The future of jobs... what to believe in!
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The future of jobs... what to believe in!
I'm sorry if this thread is just mashing together some previously massively discussed issues but for me, and many other wannabes i suppose, this kind of assessment of the job market is more than important (and on a regular basis). And the more experienced in the industry can certainly help "read the signs" 
We all know that in the last few years the market is "flooded" and it hasn't been easy to find a first job, specially with 200-ish hours and without paying for line training or something close. That's the fact that almost everyone has heard about, seen or experienced by themselves.
On the other hand we see information arising that talks about (drum roll) "The upcoming pilot shortage". And that's where my head starts to spin about the decisions i have to make... some examples
In 2011 this could be read
Gulf Daily News » World News » Wanted: 2,000 pilots urgently
In 2013 we can read this
http://routes-news.com/news/1-news/1850-asia-pacific-hundreds-of-thousands-of-pilots-needed
And even here on pprune, we can read this
http://www.pprune.org/fragrant-harbour/522856-airlines-face-pilot-shortage-boeing-report-says.html
A lot could be discussed about this information (is the shortage only about very experienced pilots, is that going to open up opportunities for the rookies somewhere else, should all the wannabes give up, if everybody gives up on their idea to become a pilot will the world still have pilots in 20/25 years) but i'm focused on one particular opinion that i have seen some people sharing.
Can these news and reports just be "ordered" and "tailored" by FTO's and TRTO's???
On the other hand we have ICAO issuing Doc 9956 that presents a surplus of pilots in North America but a shortage in Europe and Asia between 2010 and 2030 (i know 20 years is a lot of time, and Europe + Asia is a massive amount of area). Also, ICAO annex 19 was presented this year and it is "based" in the concept that the number of flights will rise (i think it talks about twice as much flights). Isn't ICAO a trustworthy organization?
Last but not least, in the last few weeks i have witnessed a slight (or not so slight) change in the market perspectives, and this one was close to home. TAP Air Portugal opened for applications with 300h, against the last round (some years ago) where the requirement was 1000h...
SOOO!! What to believe in? Are the reports just "powerful" marketing? Is ICAO "going with that flow"? Should we trust ICAO predictions? "Big" companies like TAP are going to lower their entry requisites and make the rest of the market move?
help...
We all know that in the last few years the market is "flooded" and it hasn't been easy to find a first job, specially with 200-ish hours and without paying for line training or something close. That's the fact that almost everyone has heard about, seen or experienced by themselves.
On the other hand we see information arising that talks about (drum roll) "The upcoming pilot shortage". And that's where my head starts to spin about the decisions i have to make... some examples
In 2011 this could be read
Gulf Daily News » World News » Wanted: 2,000 pilots urgently
In 2013 we can read this
http://routes-news.com/news/1-news/1850-asia-pacific-hundreds-of-thousands-of-pilots-needed
And even here on pprune, we can read this
http://www.pprune.org/fragrant-harbour/522856-airlines-face-pilot-shortage-boeing-report-says.html
A lot could be discussed about this information (is the shortage only about very experienced pilots, is that going to open up opportunities for the rookies somewhere else, should all the wannabes give up, if everybody gives up on their idea to become a pilot will the world still have pilots in 20/25 years) but i'm focused on one particular opinion that i have seen some people sharing.
Can these news and reports just be "ordered" and "tailored" by FTO's and TRTO's???
On the other hand we have ICAO issuing Doc 9956 that presents a surplus of pilots in North America but a shortage in Europe and Asia between 2010 and 2030 (i know 20 years is a lot of time, and Europe + Asia is a massive amount of area). Also, ICAO annex 19 was presented this year and it is "based" in the concept that the number of flights will rise (i think it talks about twice as much flights). Isn't ICAO a trustworthy organization?
Last but not least, in the last few weeks i have witnessed a slight (or not so slight) change in the market perspectives, and this one was close to home. TAP Air Portugal opened for applications with 300h, against the last round (some years ago) where the requirement was 1000h...
SOOO!! What to believe in? Are the reports just "powerful" marketing? Is ICAO "going with that flow"? Should we trust ICAO predictions? "Big" companies like TAP are going to lower their entry requisites and make the rest of the market move?
help...
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I often find the best way to answer these kinds of questions is to question motives and look at the facts.
It is a fact that the airline industry is still growing, particularly in the Asia Pacific market where it is growing incredibly rapidly. In fact, the Asia Pacific market will overtake the European market as the second largest market in the world (under North America) in the not too distant future. But all markets are growing, and therefore there is (and will continue to be) a need for increasing numbers of pilots. That's not under debate by people in the know in the industry, although some here might think that it is. But it doesn't tell the whole story by any means.
An important distinction to make is that despite there being a requirement for more pilots than there has ever been, there are far more trainee pilots than there have ever been. So while headlines like "Record pilot numbers will be needed" are actually true, it doesn't mean there will be a "Pilot shortage".
The trouble is that many young guys (and girls) who go to the integrated schools are thinking they will be one of the ones to get a job. Some of them surely will, but many of them won't. And many of them aren't actually that good in the first place. An integrated school is a business, and every time they sell a course to someone they make a lot of money. Logically they are going to try to tell as many people as can write their name and count up to ten that they are good enough. So any figures they give you should be taken in context. I certainly wouldn't bet my house on those figures being correct (how ironic... huh?)
But another thing to note is that pilots' pay and conditions have taken a hammering. What does that tell you? It tells me that pilots are essentially a resource, and whenever a resource becomes abundant its price falls (all other factors being equal). And whenever a resource is in abundance those who are choosing from it can afford to be more picky about what they take. So the guys that do get the jobs tend to be of a higher calibre and will earn less money than the previous generations. If you're one of the best then you'll probably make it too. If not then you're just another apple in the barrel hoping to be eaten before it rots.
As always, hope it's helpful.
It is a fact that the airline industry is still growing, particularly in the Asia Pacific market where it is growing incredibly rapidly. In fact, the Asia Pacific market will overtake the European market as the second largest market in the world (under North America) in the not too distant future. But all markets are growing, and therefore there is (and will continue to be) a need for increasing numbers of pilots. That's not under debate by people in the know in the industry, although some here might think that it is. But it doesn't tell the whole story by any means.
An important distinction to make is that despite there being a requirement for more pilots than there has ever been, there are far more trainee pilots than there have ever been. So while headlines like "Record pilot numbers will be needed" are actually true, it doesn't mean there will be a "Pilot shortage".
The trouble is that many young guys (and girls) who go to the integrated schools are thinking they will be one of the ones to get a job. Some of them surely will, but many of them won't. And many of them aren't actually that good in the first place. An integrated school is a business, and every time they sell a course to someone they make a lot of money. Logically they are going to try to tell as many people as can write their name and count up to ten that they are good enough. So any figures they give you should be taken in context. I certainly wouldn't bet my house on those figures being correct (how ironic... huh?)
But another thing to note is that pilots' pay and conditions have taken a hammering. What does that tell you? It tells me that pilots are essentially a resource, and whenever a resource becomes abundant its price falls (all other factors being equal). And whenever a resource is in abundance those who are choosing from it can afford to be more picky about what they take. So the guys that do get the jobs tend to be of a higher calibre and will earn less money than the previous generations. If you're one of the best then you'll probably make it too. If not then you're just another apple in the barrel hoping to be eaten before it rots.
As always, hope it's helpful.
Last edited by G-F0RC3; 9th Oct 2013 at 15:15.
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Thanks G-F0RC3,
Your view is certainly helpful and gave me, yet, another perspective on things.
But two questions arise from what you wrote, although both of them are something that were already on my mind often.
Regarding the number of trainee pilots, isn't (and wasn't) the economical crisis situation that most of the world has been under in the last few years a reason to decrease the numbers in trainees? In Portugal (probably not the best example...) banks are giving people the hardest time to get loans for training. It almost seems that the only option is to have the money upfront...
About the business in integrated courses; it's obvious that FTO's (with their fair share of exceptions) are willing and wanting to sell their training to anyone that can reach the yoke and pedals at the same time. But you mention something that i haven't seen too many people refer to; quality!
How much more "peace of mind" can someone have in their training investment if they know that they can be good at it?
Your view is certainly helpful and gave me, yet, another perspective on things.
But two questions arise from what you wrote, although both of them are something that were already on my mind often.
Regarding the number of trainee pilots, isn't (and wasn't) the economical crisis situation that most of the world has been under in the last few years a reason to decrease the numbers in trainees? In Portugal (probably not the best example...) banks are giving people the hardest time to get loans for training. It almost seems that the only option is to have the money upfront...
About the business in integrated courses; it's obvious that FTO's (with their fair share of exceptions) are willing and wanting to sell their training to anyone that can reach the yoke and pedals at the same time. But you mention something that i haven't seen too many people refer to; quality!
How much more "peace of mind" can someone have in their training investment if they know that they can be good at it?
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There is certainly a demand for decent, proven captains with an ATPL and plenty of hours behind them.
There is no shortage, and there never will be, of fresh out of school 200 hour CPL holders.
So many of these seem to expect to get a job straight onto a jet, I say what's wrong with climbing the ladder starting on far smaller aircraft and working up. After all, we all have a long career ahead of us.
There is no shortage, and there never will be, of fresh out of school 200 hour CPL holders.
So many of these seem to expect to get a job straight onto a jet, I say what's wrong with climbing the ladder starting on far smaller aircraft and working up. After all, we all have a long career ahead of us.
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There will never be a shortage of pilots, but there will, and is currently a shortage of good, well qualified and talented pilots.
In my opinion over the next ten years the major airlines will be full of all the muppets out there currently paying for their line training programs sitting in shiny jets. However due to their own actions they will have degraded their own terms and conditions so badly that guys like me will be getting paid more than them to fly more challenging turbo-prop or GA aircraft.
Once we get to the point where large airlines don't let pilots hand-fly or do anything but a CATIII autoland, you wont get paid more than 50K to sit in those seats, because 'anyone will be able to do that job', and to a certain extent they will be right.
Somebody is interested in everything, and if your passionate enough about something you can eventually learn to master it, once you have mastered it you will get paid a reasonable amount for your skills.
In my opinion over the next ten years the major airlines will be full of all the muppets out there currently paying for their line training programs sitting in shiny jets. However due to their own actions they will have degraded their own terms and conditions so badly that guys like me will be getting paid more than them to fly more challenging turbo-prop or GA aircraft.
Once we get to the point where large airlines don't let pilots hand-fly or do anything but a CATIII autoland, you wont get paid more than 50K to sit in those seats, because 'anyone will be able to do that job', and to a certain extent they will be right.
Somebody is interested in everything, and if your passionate enough about something you can eventually learn to master it, once you have mastered it you will get paid a reasonable amount for your skills.
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So many of these seem to expect to get a job straight onto a jet, I say what's wrong with climbing the ladder starting on far smaller aircraft and working up. After all, we all have a long career ahead of us.
In my opinion over the next ten years the major airlines will be full of all the muppets out there currently paying for their line training programs sitting in shiny jets. However due to their own actions they will have degraded their own terms and conditions so badly that guys like me will be getting paid more than them to fly more challenging turbo-prop or GA aircraft
Let's just say i wouldn't be asking questions on pprune, at least not these questions!
Somebody is interested in everything, and if your passionate enough about something you can eventually learn to master it, once you have mastered it you will get paid a reasonable amount for your skills.
Thanks for any replies and keep 'em coming!
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but there will, and is currently a shortage of good, well qualified and talented pilots.
In my opinion over the next ten years the major airlines will be full of all the muppets out there currently paying for their line training programs sitting in shiny jets. However due to their own actions they will have degraded their own terms and conditions so badly that guys like me will be getting paid more than them to fly more challenging turbo-prop or GA aircraft
Once we get to the point where large airlines don't let pilots hand-fly or do anything but a CATIII autoland, you wont get paid more than 50K to sit in those seats, because 'anyone will be able to do that job', and to a certain extent they will be right.
Somebody is interested in everything, and if your passionate enough about something you can eventually learn to master it, once you have mastered it you will get paid a reasonable amount for your skills.
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There is certainly a demand for decent, proven captains with an ATPL and plenty of hours behind them.
Within the UK, very few (and virtual no major) airlines takes direct entry captains as employees. Recruitment is invariably as a first officer, and that recruitment usually has hiring plateaus of 2000-3000 hours (including 500 hours minimum turbine time) as a baseline, to be in with a reasonable shot. Many of the major carriers also have cadet programmes with their own defined and very competitive entry requirements.
There is no shortage, and there never will be, of fresh out of school 200 hour CPL holders.
So many of these seem to expect to get a job straight onto a jet, I say what's wrong with climbing the ladder starting on far smaller aircraft and working up. After all, we all have a long career ahead of us.
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There is certainly a demand for decent, proven captains with an ATPL and plenty of hours behind them.
In the UK there is a ladder with certain companies, with natural progression from one aircraft to the other for example Eastern where you can start on the Jetstream and move up to the 2000, and Flybe where you can move from turbo prop to jet within the same company. Also, companies like Jet 2 have (purely anecdotally) taken on pilots from small turbo prop operators before, and I see no reason why they would not take a captain ATPL holder on to become a jet FO.
If you're prepared to move to the middle east, then there are certainly opportunities to be found, at least in the short term.
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Yes, from the smallest regional (one type) operator, right through to the largest global airline, there are always internal career paths. Whether it be simply from the right seat to the left, or from one aircraft type to another, there are always internal opportunities.
The problem is, that you need ask yourself how you are going to find that first rung on the ladder that is going to provide the "stepping stone" through your own career path. There are hoards of other people also crowding to get on that same rung.
I took the kids to Universal studios in August we planned which rides we were going to go on. When we passed through the turnstiles (which took 20 minutes) the queues were up to three hours long! Masses and masses of people all with exactly the same game plan. I would have given up there and then, except we had elected to stay at an on-site hotel. It was a lot of money for "exactly the same type of bed" but it came with the added bonus of unlimited (express) fast pass tickets. Now the queues were 15 minutes long, and the day progressed as planned. I am not sure how many rides those who saved their money got on before their time expired, or they gave up and did something else, but I am sure there is an analogy there somewhere.
The problem is, that you need ask yourself how you are going to find that first rung on the ladder that is going to provide the "stepping stone" through your own career path. There are hoards of other people also crowding to get on that same rung.
I took the kids to Universal studios in August we planned which rides we were going to go on. When we passed through the turnstiles (which took 20 minutes) the queues were up to three hours long! Masses and masses of people all with exactly the same game plan. I would have given up there and then, except we had elected to stay at an on-site hotel. It was a lot of money for "exactly the same type of bed" but it came with the added bonus of unlimited (express) fast pass tickets. Now the queues were 15 minutes long, and the day progressed as planned. I am not sure how many rides those who saved their money got on before their time expired, or they gave up and did something else, but I am sure there is an analogy there somewhere.
