I'm sorry if this thread is just mashing together some previously massively discussed issues but for me, and many other wannabes i suppose, this kind of assessment of the job market is more than important (and on a regular basis). And the more experienced in the industry can certainly help "read the signs"
We all know that in the last few years the market is "flooded" and it hasn't been easy to find a first job, specially with 200-ish hours and without paying for line training or something close. That's the fact that almost everyone has heard about, seen or experienced by themselves.
On the other hand we see information arising that talks about (drum roll) "
The upcoming pilot shortage". And that's where my head starts to spin about the decisions i have to make... some examples
In 2011 this could be read
Gulf Daily News » World News » Wanted: 2,000 pilots urgently
In 2013 we can read this
http://routes-news.com/news/1-news/1850-asia-pacific-hundreds-of-thousands-of-pilots-needed
And even here on pprune, we can read this
http://www.pprune.org/fragrant-harbour/522856-airlines-face-pilot-shortage-boeing-report-says.html
A lot could be discussed about this information (is the shortage only about very experienced pilots, is that going to open up opportunities for the rookies somewhere else, should all the wannabes give up, if everybody gives up on their idea to become a pilot will the world still have pilots in 20/25 years) but i'm focused on one particular opinion that i have seen some people sharing.
Can these news and reports just be "ordered" and "tailored" by FTO's and TRTO's???
On the other hand we have ICAO issuing Doc 9956 that presents a surplus of pilots in North America but a shortage in Europe and Asia between 2010 and 2030 (i know 20 years is a lot of time, and Europe + Asia is a massive amount of area). Also, ICAO annex 19 was presented this year and it is "based" in the concept that the number of flights will rise (i think it talks about twice as much flights). Isn't ICAO a trustworthy organization?
Last but not least, in the last few weeks i have witnessed a slight (or not so slight) change in the market perspectives, and this one was close to home. TAP Air Portugal opened for applications with 300h, against the last round (some years ago) where the requirement was 1000h...
SOOO!! What to believe in? Are the reports just "powerful" marketing? Is ICAO "going with that flow"? Should we trust ICAO predictions? "Big" companies like TAP are going to lower their entry requisites and make the rest of the market move?
help...