Are things picking up?
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Washington State
Posts: 77
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Here is an article from Bloomberg painting a rather rosy picture;
Pilots Needed for Cockpits as Asia Boom Creates Shortage - Bloomberg
Pilots Needed for Cockpits as Asia Boom Creates Shortage - Bloomberg
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Button Moon
Posts: 314
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Have Bloomberg got shares in a flight school?????
If those numbers are true by half then happy days. But since making the decision to take the plunge a few years ago I always hoped for the best and planned for the worst...... The article does paint a nice picture and I sincerely hope the industry grows at the rate predicted....but it all sounds a bit starry eyed to me!
Here's hoping for the best......but don't abandon plans for the worst quite yet folks!!!!
2W2R
Here's hoping for the best......but don't abandon plans for the worst quite yet folks!!!!
2W2R
Join Date: Dec 1998
Location: UK
Posts: 293
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I think things are starting to pick up. There were quite a few jobs in Flt Int this week - Jet2, FlyDubai, and Openskies. Interestingly, openskies requirements weren't that strict - no type rating was required for instance.
The likes of BA and ezy will probably start taking some 200hr cadets soon. I actually think that we may all be surprised at how quickly the pool of talent dries up, as things have historically picked up rapidly after a recession as airlines leave it to the very last minute to be sure before recruiting. By this time they may be already a bit short of pilots, coupled with expansion. Plus only 50% or so pass selection and many who have been out of training for a while may struggle in flying assessments if not current.
It's not correct to say that redundant people with thousands of hours will block 200hr cadets from getting jobs as they come from different pools and are normally recruited in tandem (many airlines like a mix of experience with 200hr cadets and older more experienced DEPs).
Also, many pilots who stayed beyond 55 will be reaching 60 in just over a year, so hopefully there may then start to be a more normal retirement profile from Dec 2011 onwards.
The likes of BA and ezy will probably start taking some 200hr cadets soon. I actually think that we may all be surprised at how quickly the pool of talent dries up, as things have historically picked up rapidly after a recession as airlines leave it to the very last minute to be sure before recruiting. By this time they may be already a bit short of pilots, coupled with expansion. Plus only 50% or so pass selection and many who have been out of training for a while may struggle in flying assessments if not current.
It's not correct to say that redundant people with thousands of hours will block 200hr cadets from getting jobs as they come from different pools and are normally recruited in tandem (many airlines like a mix of experience with 200hr cadets and older more experienced DEPs).
Also, many pilots who stayed beyond 55 will be reaching 60 in just over a year, so hopefully there may then start to be a more normal retirement profile from Dec 2011 onwards.
Thread Starter
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Kent
Age: 47
Posts: 2
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
It seems that some airlines are recruiting as they are predicting a need for pilots next spring/summer. They wil ltake the ones that need the most training now so that theyare ready and working next year. I would think that experienced pilots will be getting snapped up later as they needless 'working up' to get them onto the line.
If this is the case then once the large airlines start advertising for the experienced pilots then airlines like Ryanair, Flybe, Jet2 etc. may encounter a mass exodus of pilots that are fed up with the way they have been treated. This will then lead to an even greater need for pilots from these airlines albeit experienced SFO's and captains.
Of course this is only my theory but I think there could be interesting times ahead providing there is no terrorist attack/bank meltdown etc.
If this is the case then once the large airlines start advertising for the experienced pilots then airlines like Ryanair, Flybe, Jet2 etc. may encounter a mass exodus of pilots that are fed up with the way they have been treated. This will then lead to an even greater need for pilots from these airlines albeit experienced SFO's and captains.
Of course this is only my theory but I think there could be interesting times ahead providing there is no terrorist attack/bank meltdown etc.
Thread Starter
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Kent
Age: 47
Posts: 2
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
And this is exactly why the SFO's and Captains of today should be campaigning against P2F with BALPA, rather than thinking it will not affect them as they are past that level in their own career. This will slowly creep up the ladder and will reduce T&Cs as well as making the whole proffession a joke.
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: The Big Blue House
Posts: 24
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I lol'd at the chat of BA recruiting 200hr guys...
Have you ANY idea how many Military pilots are sitting on full ATPLs just waiting for BA to start recruiting?? Not even an £80,000 retention bonus is enough to keep them in...
Have you ANY idea how many Military pilots are sitting on full ATPLs just waiting for BA to start recruiting?? Not even an £80,000 retention bonus is enough to keep them in...
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: London
Age: 51
Posts: 27
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
BBC reports - Pilots in demand
It is all good news according to the BBC BBC News - Demand for pilots is 'set to soar' as plane travel growsCertainly the private jet market is bouncing back steadily now. Traffic up 6% on last year according to Eurocontrol & EBAA.
As a freelance private jet pilot (C560 XL) I am getting more calls from private jet aircraft operators who need extra crew on an adhoc basis.
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Somerset
Posts: 420
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Reality Check
Good Morning All
I honestly do not wish to sound like the harbinger of doom and gloom but I honestly feel that talk of a sustained recovery is premature, airlines are still in deep trouble.
Air Southwest in Plymouth have been up for sale since May, the only interetsed party seems to be Eastern airlines who will trim workforce and routes if they get the airline. The company that owns Southwest (Sutton Harbour Holdings) also own Plymouth Airport, currently the airport is not up for sale but Sutton Harbour recently sold some of the airport land to a property developer. If the sale to Eastern doesn't happen Plymouth may lose more than an airline it might lose the airport to housing.
Aer Arann in Ireland have entered 'examinership' which is a process where the Irish government protects the company from its creditors for up to 70 days. The airline are seeking new investors to allow it to 'restructure and reposition.' Such words normally only mean one thing - job losses so even if someone does come up with enough money to stop the airline folding there will still be more pilots on the dole.
Several experienced pilots (WWW for instance) have written on these pages in the past that hard times are still ahead and that airlines will fold during the Winter, it seems that they were correct.
I hope that I am wrong (wouldn't be the first time) as I'm a low hours bloke currently working in engineering to keep some money coming in. For people like me who qualified when the recession started to bite theres not a lot we can do but I would not advise anyone to start training at the moment and definitely steer clear of integrated courses especially if you have to give up paid employment to get onto the course.
Again apologies for the gloom but thats how it is right now, sincere best wishes and good luck to all those seeking flying work at the moment (as long as you don't get a job before I do!!!!)
MM
I honestly do not wish to sound like the harbinger of doom and gloom but I honestly feel that talk of a sustained recovery is premature, airlines are still in deep trouble.
Air Southwest in Plymouth have been up for sale since May, the only interetsed party seems to be Eastern airlines who will trim workforce and routes if they get the airline. The company that owns Southwest (Sutton Harbour Holdings) also own Plymouth Airport, currently the airport is not up for sale but Sutton Harbour recently sold some of the airport land to a property developer. If the sale to Eastern doesn't happen Plymouth may lose more than an airline it might lose the airport to housing.
Aer Arann in Ireland have entered 'examinership' which is a process where the Irish government protects the company from its creditors for up to 70 days. The airline are seeking new investors to allow it to 'restructure and reposition.' Such words normally only mean one thing - job losses so even if someone does come up with enough money to stop the airline folding there will still be more pilots on the dole.
Several experienced pilots (WWW for instance) have written on these pages in the past that hard times are still ahead and that airlines will fold during the Winter, it seems that they were correct.
I hope that I am wrong (wouldn't be the first time) as I'm a low hours bloke currently working in engineering to keep some money coming in. For people like me who qualified when the recession started to bite theres not a lot we can do but I would not advise anyone to start training at the moment and definitely steer clear of integrated courses especially if you have to give up paid employment to get onto the course.
Again apologies for the gloom but thats how it is right now, sincere best wishes and good luck to all those seeking flying work at the moment (as long as you don't get a job before I do!!!!)
MM
Calm down.
There is a second credit crunch and another UK house price crash to get out of the way first.
Anyway. Nobodies interested in ex-RAF anymore and the only way 'in' to most airlines is going to be pay to fly type schemes. Every established airline already has a big bunch of FO's they didn't promote over the last couple of years. Every established airline is in need of the profits that a cadet willing and able to spend £20 - £30k on a type rating followed by lower payscales can provide.
Nobody wants experience.
Nobody will pay for it.
I may be wrong.
WWW
There is a second credit crunch and another UK house price crash to get out of the way first.
Anyway. Nobodies interested in ex-RAF anymore and the only way 'in' to most airlines is going to be pay to fly type schemes. Every established airline already has a big bunch of FO's they didn't promote over the last couple of years. Every established airline is in need of the profits that a cadet willing and able to spend £20 - £30k on a type rating followed by lower payscales can provide.
Nobody wants experience.
Nobody will pay for it.
I may be wrong.
WWW
Clearly we were writing at the same time there magicmick.
It was PrivateFly I wanted to calm down.
All the risks are on the downside. I'm long on the FTSE and an inflation bull. Airlines are still a shaky business model and some will fail. We are in a consolodation period I think. Jobs will become available as people die/retire/lose medical but those jobs will increasingly only be available to those willing to join some kind of scheme. The old fashioned - straight job - is going to become just that; old fashioned. Bad news for those looking to change employer including Aunty Bettys mob.
The long haul boys have swathes of near-rated applicants from the Lo-Co's. The massive sedative effect of enormous lo-co recruitment is about to wear off as RYR and EZY end expansion in the next 18 months. Sometimes its the economy and sometimes its the industry that causes seismic ructions in the Wannabe World. Recently and currently its the economy. Bear in mind that shortly the Industry itself will cause a quake when the lo-co's shut their doors. RYR and EZY have hoovered up between them about 500 jetjobs a year for the last decade. Sometimes more. Nearly all fuelled by expansion.
That ends.
In 18 months.
Think on. If you're a Wannabe there's always **** news awaiting. That's a lesson in itself.
WWW
It was PrivateFly I wanted to calm down.
All the risks are on the downside. I'm long on the FTSE and an inflation bull. Airlines are still a shaky business model and some will fail. We are in a consolodation period I think. Jobs will become available as people die/retire/lose medical but those jobs will increasingly only be available to those willing to join some kind of scheme. The old fashioned - straight job - is going to become just that; old fashioned. Bad news for those looking to change employer including Aunty Bettys mob.
The long haul boys have swathes of near-rated applicants from the Lo-Co's. The massive sedative effect of enormous lo-co recruitment is about to wear off as RYR and EZY end expansion in the next 18 months. Sometimes its the economy and sometimes its the industry that causes seismic ructions in the Wannabe World. Recently and currently its the economy. Bear in mind that shortly the Industry itself will cause a quake when the lo-co's shut their doors. RYR and EZY have hoovered up between them about 500 jetjobs a year for the last decade. Sometimes more. Nearly all fuelled by expansion.
That ends.
In 18 months.
Think on. If you're a Wannabe there's always **** news awaiting. That's a lesson in itself.
WWW
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: UK, Paris, Peckham, New York
Posts: 23
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
again spot on WWW, as soon as the last jets arrive for easy and FR the doors are closed. I wouldnt be surprised if after that FR put their requirments back up to 1500 hrs again...
UK expansion is done, only hope is far east and sand pit for the next boom time, for those that are able to move out there.
I wouldnt un-batten the hatches just yet, job cuts and interest rate rises and end to QE will make things interesting again for the next 18 months...
UK expansion is done, only hope is far east and sand pit for the next boom time, for those that are able to move out there.
I wouldnt un-batten the hatches just yet, job cuts and interest rate rises and end to QE will make things interesting again for the next 18 months...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Somerset
Posts: 420
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
No worries WWW, to be honest I could probably do with a bit of calming down most of the time.
I don't have your financial acumen but from my very simplistic viewpoint I feel that the industry is still very much on its knees and no amount of up beat reports from BBC, Boeing etc will convince me otherwise.
I started modular training at the beginning of 2007 when the jobs were easier to find. It may well be that I have spunked an awful lot of money against the wall for no result but at least it was my money and was not loaned from anyone. At the time I had engineering as a plan B if the flying didn't happen but it seems that the flying is working out to be the plan B.
Unfortunately the sort of reports linked to in previous replies are pure
mag material for the flying schools (modular and integrated) that are trying to convince people to part with their cash. I can almost hear these reports being quoted verbatim at their open days.
Cheers
MM
I don't have your financial acumen but from my very simplistic viewpoint I feel that the industry is still very much on its knees and no amount of up beat reports from BBC, Boeing etc will convince me otherwise.
I started modular training at the beginning of 2007 when the jobs were easier to find. It may well be that I have spunked an awful lot of money against the wall for no result but at least it was my money and was not loaned from anyone. At the time I had engineering as a plan B if the flying didn't happen but it seems that the flying is working out to be the plan B.
Unfortunately the sort of reports linked to in previous replies are pure
mag material for the flying schools (modular and integrated) that are trying to convince people to part with their cash. I can almost hear these reports being quoted verbatim at their open days.Cheers
MM
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: lumberton
Posts: 12
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Ryr will not stop recruiting for the right seat. They'll just have more fo's flying less hours, not good if you get paid per flying hour. Gonna get harder to service those loans, but they ain't gonna stop selling the most lucrative seat that's for sure.....
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Button Moon
Posts: 314
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Well things are definitely better than they were.
My take on it is that the real extent of the damage has still not been felt. This winter will be the liquidity test for many carriers. If they're still here this time next year, I rekon they're here to stay until the next cyclic dip.
The number of catastrophic events that unfolded over the last 24-36 months have really brought the industry to its knees. Namely the credit crunch, recession and then to top it off the volcanic ash cloud.
I await correction on this but aren't we in the UK the only mugs left paying Pax Tax? I know the Dutch got rid of it after KLM reported that the tax was damaging it's pax numbers.
As for us poor sods looking for a proper flying job, until the loonacy of P2F and back handers from flight school's etc are dealt with the industry remains a bit of a joke. Sadly only realised much of this since I've actually been job hunting.
Bit like sex really....great at the time but wake up the next morning with a shiny blue book and you realise in full horror what your beer goggles made you do....
On the bright side, it's the weekend and that means beer time!!!
2W2R
My take on it is that the real extent of the damage has still not been felt. This winter will be the liquidity test for many carriers. If they're still here this time next year, I rekon they're here to stay until the next cyclic dip.
The number of catastrophic events that unfolded over the last 24-36 months have really brought the industry to its knees. Namely the credit crunch, recession and then to top it off the volcanic ash cloud.
I await correction on this but aren't we in the UK the only mugs left paying Pax Tax? I know the Dutch got rid of it after KLM reported that the tax was damaging it's pax numbers.
As for us poor sods looking for a proper flying job, until the loonacy of P2F and back handers from flight school's etc are dealt with the industry remains a bit of a joke. Sadly only realised much of this since I've actually been job hunting.
Bit like sex really....great at the time but wake up the next morning with a shiny blue book and you realise in full horror what your beer goggles made you do....
On the bright side, it's the weekend and that means beer time!!!
2W2R
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: The Big Blue House
Posts: 24
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I doubt BA will ever go for the P2F route; perhaps they will make candidates pay for their type rating, but I know for a fact that BA are big on experienced crews and having them trained in strict accordance with BA SOP. (and have a lot of ex-military).
I would also not be surprised to see the CAA adopt the 1500hr rule that is running the mill in the US at the moment; at the end of the day, P2F is essentially a money making exercise versus flight safety. It's only a matter of time before there is a serious incident involving a low-houred crew (I believe Buffalo was the US one that prompted the introduction on the law?) and the CAA sit up and take note.
WWW, you have been proven right before, so I can only hope that this time you are incorrect
...
I would also not be surprised to see the CAA adopt the 1500hr rule that is running the mill in the US at the moment; at the end of the day, P2F is essentially a money making exercise versus flight safety. It's only a matter of time before there is a serious incident involving a low-houred crew (I believe Buffalo was the US one that prompted the introduction on the law?) and the CAA sit up and take note.
WWW, you have been proven right before, so I can only hope that this time you are incorrect
...
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Eurozone
Posts: 153
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I reckon that those who wish to see p2f expand are those who have just qualified or are about to enter training and are desperate to justify their financial outlay to themselves.
Who actually operates p2f in the UK? Only really two or three low cost operators and occasionally BMI. The vast majority of European legacy carriers do not as they still value experience over unbridled optimism.
Lets see how many 200 hour wunderkinds get selected by BA or Virgin or GSS or Emirates etc before you all start wetting your collective knickers. You may all get your chance in the end but you may have to wait and you may not automatically occupy the RHS of a jet in front of those with experience. The past is no guarantee of the future. An airline filled with inexperienced cadets would likely draw the attention of the authorities as I understand, a certain loco in the frozen north has found out.
Just my 2 bob's worth.
Who actually operates p2f in the UK? Only really two or three low cost operators and occasionally BMI. The vast majority of European legacy carriers do not as they still value experience over unbridled optimism.
Lets see how many 200 hour wunderkinds get selected by BA or Virgin or GSS or Emirates etc before you all start wetting your collective knickers. You may all get your chance in the end but you may have to wait and you may not automatically occupy the RHS of a jet in front of those with experience. The past is no guarantee of the future. An airline filled with inexperienced cadets would likely draw the attention of the authorities as I understand, a certain loco in the frozen north has found out.
Just my 2 bob's worth.
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: UK
Posts: 75
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
John Smith-agree with your points regarding low hours/PTF if things were 'logical'. However, if there is a major incident with a PTF guy in the RHS then what will determine changes will be the media, public perception and politicians. At the moment, the travelling public don't care who sits at the front so long as they (the public) can get cheap flights. The media is focused on other things. If we have a Buffalo type accident this side of the pond the media coverage/judgement will be severe. As we know, the 'truth will never get in the way of a good story.'
Oh-and one other thought. If airlines keep replacing 200 hour PTF candidates with new ones, there will be a lot of 'pilots' with around 300-400 hrs TT. These people will have no way to get the required experience/hours to ATPL issue except by finding employment. The PTF airlines will have no crew to promote to command.
Oh-and one other thought. If airlines keep replacing 200 hour PTF candidates with new ones, there will be a lot of 'pilots' with around 300-400 hrs TT. These people will have no way to get the required experience/hours to ATPL issue except by finding employment. The PTF airlines will have no crew to promote to command.
Last edited by Black Knat; 21st Sep 2010 at 13:56. Reason: additional point